Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1162

#51 | Yuri_LowelI | Posted 9/7/2013 11:27:26 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Also hoping Red pulls a Sora tomorrow.

Gotta hope Squall has enough of a natural strength advantage to be able to beat Red despite Vivi. I honestly think he does, but RallyFAQs and all that.


If someone other than Red is going through. It's going to be Vivi. Squall already done hs part this contest by taking out that trash missingno. Thanks squall but that will do for now.

Also imagine a final with draven snake and squall. Everyone will rally for snake and GFaqs will vote for him. Squalls % would be Shepard level. Do you really want that?
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#52 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/7/2013 11:27:26 PM | message detail
Maybe Mario's not immune from Samus's troubles!

Maybe the bad thing that happened to her was just that bad!
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#53 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/7/2013 11:28:06 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
And to add to what I said a minute ago, bear in mind that three of Samus's pictures feature Zero Suit Samus (alongside a Power Suit Samus in the last pic, so it might cancel it out), so it might be having some effect.


It hasn't seemed to hurt her even once since that match in 2006 though. Also, this doesn't explain the Samus/Zelda 2006 vis-a-vis the Samus/Zelda 2010 matches.

I think there's more going on than that. We should know better soon enough - Samus's strength once again has become very interesting to analyze.
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#54 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 9/7/2013 11:28:17 PM | message detail
Y'know, I just noticed Draven messed another thing up.

Link has never had a matchup of any kind against an RBY pokémon. It makes me wonder because I suspect pokémon are so strong in this format because the people that like them really like them. Who knows if pokéfans are also generally Nintendo-voters but Bowser looked awfully bad in Sonic / Mewtwo / Bowser... like his support base just jumped ship for someone else. He looked fine R1, R2.

Either way, a Nintendo-based character that puts up 55% on Sonic vs. Link vs. Sephiroth ... would have been interesting!
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#55 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/7/2013 11:28:19 PM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
Prepare for the Pokemon fanbase to rally tomorrow.......for Squall. That sets up Squall/Samus/Charizard, much more winnable than Red/Charizard/Samus.


I'll take it.
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#56 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/7/2013 11:28:39 PM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
Maybe Mario's not immune from Samus's troubles!

Maybe the bad thing that happened to her was just that bad!


I can see Adam authorizing this
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#57 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/7/2013 11:30:14 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
It hasn't seemed to hurt her even once since that match in 2006 though. Also, this doesn't explain the Samus/Zelda 2006 vis-a-vis the Samus/Zelda 2010 matches.


It's hard to say for sure. Samus's last few matches of 2006 were weird.

I still think Tifa gets some sort of advantage for being the female of all females, even against someone like Samus, whose primary appeal isn't her looks (as a woman anyway). It could just be a unique situation.

Or it could just be two flukes, who knows.
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#58 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/7/2013 11:31:52 PM | message detail
Yuri_LowelI posted...
LeonhartFour posted...
Also hoping Red pulls a Sora tomorrow.

Gotta hope Squall has enough of a natural strength advantage to be able to beat Red despite Vivi. I honestly think he does, but RallyFAQs and all that.
If someone other than Red is going through. It's going to be Vivi. Squall already done hs part this contest by taking out that trash missingno. Thanks squall but that will do for now.

Also imagine a final with draven snake and squall. Everyone will rally for snake and GFaqs will vote for him. Squalls % would be Shepard level. Do you really want that?
I like Squall, and that situation would sound ideal to me!

Squall makes his deepest run yet while also maybe giving Snake half a shot at saving the contest? I'm IN.

Squall for hero of gamefaqs.
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#59 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/7/2013 11:31:54 PM | message detail
Yuri_LowelI posted...
If someone other than Red is going through. It's going to be Vivi. Squall already done hs part this contest by taking out that trash missingno.


Keep in mind that the leap from Vivi to Squall isn't much smaller than the leap from Tidus to Squall (in years past anyway). It's a pretty big deficit for Vivi to make up, and it's unlikely that the site's voters will abandon the stronger FF character like the outside rallies will.

If FF fans want FF to win, they'd be smarter to rally around Squall, not Vivi.

But they aren't, so they won't.
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#60 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 9/7/2013 11:32:20 PM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
So just when you think this contest doesn't make sense and RallyFAQs and you change your expert to the crazy idea of L-Block>Samus>Tifa you get a match that makes perfect sense

Clearly,4chan trolls us by not rallying L Block


Part of me feels like the presence of a beloved Nintendo character that Nintendo doesn't run into the ground (like Mario, or even Link for that matter) is stopping L-Block rallying in its tracks. Apparently all those New Super Mario Bros. games are a bigger offense to the Internet (or at least the part of the Internet where rallies come from) than Metroid: Other M.

I like it. Out of all the games Nintendo has made over the past few years, Other M is the only one that didn't play it so safe. So at least Samus gets rewarded for that. I honestly feel that Super Metroid did more damage to the series back in its day than Other M is doing now (put it this way: at least Nintendo isn't treating Samus the way Capcom is treating Mega Man), and that Super Mario Sunshine did more damage to its series than Other M is doing to Metroid now.
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#61 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/7/2013 11:32:35 PM | message detail
Well, this isn't so extreme that it can be as easily written off as a fluke. This could be just a relatively small Samus drop in line with Mario's. I think we'd be much more confident in saying so if the 2006 flukes hadn't happened.
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#62 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/7/2013 11:32:41 PM | message detail
Also, Squall making the finals would be fine regardless of his performance. I've voted for the last place character in virtually every multi-way championship match we've had so far (including Link/Draven/Shepard if you want to count that), so why not one more?
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#63 | JustForFun1988 | Posted 9/7/2013 11:34:16 PM | message detail
An unrallied L-Block is obviously of no concern here, it's that 56% on Tifa that's kinda unsettling. What happened to you, Samus.
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#64 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/7/2013 11:36:56 PM | message detail
I was very happy for Crono to make the final in 2008, even though he came in a distant last place.
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#65 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 9/7/2013 11:37:30 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Also hoping Red pulls a Sora tomorrow.

Gotta hope Squall has enough of a natural strength advantage to be able to beat Red despite Vivi. I honestly think he does, but RallyFAQs and all that.


I would think that Squall and his game getting so much hate on the Internet would make him one of the least rally-resistant characters in these contests, but he proved otherwise last round. In hindsight, FFVIII hate isn't as big on the Internet as this board makes it out to be (and even then, Leonhart's contest from 2011 shows that the game has a good level of popularity on this board), and Squall may be one of those "nostalgia" characters that doesn't get whored out to no end nowadays like a Cloud, Sephiroth, or Mario.
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#66 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/7/2013 11:37:34 PM | message detail
Ironically, 2008 was the only time I didn't vote for the last place entrant...!
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#67 | Yuri_LowelI | Posted 9/7/2013 11:38:54 PM | message detail
This isn't a Samus drop. Tifa is the least antivoted FFVII character. She would look more mpressive than seph/cloud. Also female factor. It does exist. Don't kid yourself if you think Samus doesn't get it from the Nintendo nerds.
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#68 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/7/2013 11:41:20 PM | message detail
Yuri_LowelI posted...
This isn't a Samus drop. Tifa is the least antivoted FFVII character. She would look more mpressive than seph/cloud. Also female factor. It does exist. Don't kid yourself if you think Samus doesn't get it from the Nintendo nerds.


This is indecipherable.
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#69 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 9/7/2013 11:42:47 PM | message detail
JustForFun1988 posted...
An unrallied L-Block is obviously of no concern here, it's that 56% on Tifa that's kinda unsettling. What happened to you, Samus.


The dumb thing is that when looking at the poll I was happy for her since she was in an easy 1st place and was doing much better against Tifa than she did in 2006. In hindsight, of course, a mere 56% on a Final Fantasy VII character in a contest where the game's lead lost to Squirtle and its villain was threatened by Kirby is not good. Of course, a Samus drop makes perfect sense. I still wouldn't rule it out as a bad result for her though: she's proven she's more rally-proof than Mario and she's breaking 55% on a character she almost lost to once.

IIRC Samus is getting around the exact same percentage on Tifa that Sephiroth got on her last contest. Samus getting threatened by Kirby now would make sense.
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#70 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/7/2013 11:42:58 PM | message detail
2002: Link (first place)
2003: Cloud (first place)
2004: Chrono Trigger (last place)
2004: Link (first place)
Villains Contest: Don't remember
2005: Link (first place)
2006: Final Fantasy (last place)
2006: Cloud (last place)
2007: Cloud (3rd place)
2008: Crono (last place)
2009: FFVII (last place in the true final)
2010: Cloud (last place)
2010: MM (first place)
2011: Link v. Ganondorf (first place- obviously I voted for Cloud/Seph in the semis)
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#71 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 9/7/2013 11:43:49 PM | message detail
Yuri_LowelI posted...
This isn't a Samus drop. Tifa is the least antivoted FFVII character. She would look more mpressive than seph/cloud. Also female factor. It does exist. Don't kid yourself if you think Samus doesn't get it from the Nintendo nerds.


One more thing:

Samus is failing to break 60% on someone who failed to break 60% on someone who failed to break 60% on Pyramid Head. Ouch.
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#72 | Denzokuken | Posted 9/7/2013 11:45:41 PM | message detail
Tifa is so legit! This proves she is stronger than Auron (and Vincent... and Squall).
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#73 | ecksgem | Posted 9/7/2013 11:47:06 PM | message detail
The board goes from doubting Samus against L-Block to disappointed in her performance when she's winning easily?

i don't get it

Seems pretty silly to me to put much stock in 1v1 numbers in a 3-way match, first of all, especially one with a joke character involved. But I also think there are matchups that favor certain characters. Maybe Tifa is just a bad match for Samus.

Either way, she's beating two strong characters comfortably. Samus looks fine.
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#74 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/7/2013 11:47:39 PM | message detail
I'd take Tifa > Vincent without a second thought now. Tifa has seemingly resisted the FFVII decline better than anyone. Even with a "fair" pic, Vincent probably still loses to Mewtwo. Granted, it's going to be nigh impossible to get a clear read out of ANYONE in this contest, but still.

Obviously picking Squall to beat anyone I can make a half reasonable argument for him to beat, which includes Tifa, so yeah.
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#75 | RPGlord95 | Posted 9/7/2013 11:48:10 PM | message detail
So next year.

Pyramid Head > Samus
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#76 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/7/2013 11:48:31 PM | message detail
Now that it looks like Samus will have no problem beating Mega Man next round, the bonus match right before the finals will end up being very boring if we use the 2nd place finishers in the 3 semifinal matches. Hell, if Charizard gets past Mega Man and Mewtwo finishes 2nd place next round, we could end up with an all-Pokemon bonus match, which would be very boring.
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#77 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/7/2013 11:49:23 PM | message detail
I would be okay-ish with an all-Pokemon bonus match.

Just as long as it's the bonus match and not the finals.
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#78 | Zinganger | Posted 9/7/2013 11:49:54 PM | message detail
I know this is practically unheard of, but...

is it possible that L-Block is leeching Samus votes? Nintendo-ish SFF?

Could this actually be a thing?
#79 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/7/2013 11:50:33 PM | message detail
Champions

Draven

Summary: Draven’s passive will now consume all stacks on kill to grant bonus gold, although the gold granted per stack has been reduced by 1. Additionally, Draven’s passive will grant at least 50 bonus gold per kill.

Context: Considering Draven is obviously the greatest champion ever in League of Legends, his new League of Draven passive feels a little flat right now. We’re looking at ways of making his Adoration mechanic more rewarding - both functionally and visually – during late game and multikills.

League of Draven

Now grants a base 50 Gold bonus upon killing an enemy champion (from 0)
Now consumes all Adoration stacks on kill to reward Draven with Gold (previously only consuming half)
Gold per Adoration stack consumed reduced to 2 (from 3)
Visuals and sounds for League of Draven play on every Draven kill, instead of only playing on kills which consumed a large number of stacks


Too good. This is the freaking official patch notes.

The more I play League, the more I like this whole Draven thing. You guys really should give it a try.
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#80 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/7/2013 11:51:19 PM | message detail
Tifa never really got a chance to be exposed. Put her up against Diglett or something stupid and I'm fairly certain bad, bad things happen.

If Squall can pull it out (not gonna happen, but the dream never dies eh), we could get a decent read on Samus next round to see if this is another fluke or not. As it is I doubt we'll get anything resembling a read. Snake could blow her out or she could do the same to him but with Draven there it pollutes the dynamic too much.
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#81 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 9/7/2013 11:51:44 PM | message detail
How does it look like Samus > Mega Man is a lock? I mean, I guess Tifa > Mega Man would've been a sexy upset last contest, but now with Mega Man in SSB hype and FFVII characters falling off a cliff?

And it's not like Tifa has looked good all contest either. Say it with me: She failed to break 60% on someone who allowed Pyramid Head to get 40% on him.
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#82 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/7/2013 11:52:02 PM | message detail
If possible, we should try to get Bacon to run Link/Cloud/Mario for the next bonus match because all 3 of them have been eliminated already and that was one of 2 possible finals that we were expecting prior to the start of this contest. I'd rather have Link/Snake/Mario for our next bonus match, but Bacon probably won't run that match if Snake doesn't get eliminated next round.
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#83 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/7/2013 11:52:46 PM | message detail
Eh, Link/Cloud/Mario would be boring. No way Cloud stands any chance of winning that.
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#84 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/7/2013 11:53:50 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Tifa never really got a chance to be exposed.


And what a shame this is.
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#85 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 9/7/2013 11:55:35 PM | message detail
Okay, getting out my trusty online calculator revealed that Tifa got 59.42% on Dragonborn. Not too bad considering Dragonborn was standing out like nuts. Would we actually pick Dragonborn > Yuna?

Dragonborn also got 60.31% on Pyramid Head. So I wasn't completely right lol. And failing to break 60% on Nooky doesn't look so bad when you consider how much he was standing out and how he got a new game VERY recently.
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#86 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/7/2013 11:55:46 PM | message detail
Also, I'm kind of curious to see how the day vote goes here. Tifa doesn't have traditional FFVII trends, but she got off to a terrible start (and Samus got off to a great start) like FFVII is wont to do, so I wonder who will gain more from it.
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#87 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/7/2013 11:59:40 PM | message detail | (edited)
My instinct is Samus does better in the day relative to their 2006 match... but on the flip side, I can't imagine TDZ time being anything merciful to Samus.
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#88 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 9/7/2013 11:59:38 PM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
And it's not like Tifa has looked good all contest either. Say it with me: She failed to break 60% on someone who allowed Pyramid Head to get 40% on him.

Just stop, please stop. Not only are you analyzing LOL 3-ways, you're not even bothering to mention Dragonborn was the not-FF option. Also Tifa looked very solid in R1.
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#89 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 9/8/2013 12:00:17 AM | message detail
In 2007, Auron got 72.77% on Pyramid Head. So assuming a constant Pyramid Head and Auron, what does Samus get on Auron?
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#90 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/8/2013 12:00:33 AM | message detail
Darn it, you just had to acknowledge the fact that LMS said something, didn't you.
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#91 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 9/8/2013 12:01:12 AM | message detail
IngmarBirdman posted...
LinkMarioSamus posted...
And it's not like Tifa has looked good all contest either. Say it with me: She failed to break 60% on someone who allowed Pyramid Head to get 40% on him.

Just stop, please stop. Not only are you analyzing LOL 3-ways, you're not even bothering to mention Dragonborn was the not-FF option. Also Tifa looked very solid in R1.


I was just saying that it's not like she hasn't shown signs of weakness. I guess I just expected Dragonborn to be killed beyond all comprehension in that match.
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#92 | Julian_Caesar | Posted 9/8/2013 12:01:25 AM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
If possible, we should try to get Bacon to run Link/Cloud/Mario for the next bonus match because all 3 of them have been eliminated already and that was one of 2 possible finals that we were expecting prior to the start of this contest. I'd rather have Link/Snake/Mario for our next bonus match, but Bacon probably won't run that match if Snake doesn't get eliminated next round.


Hasn't it already been established that Mario folds against Link, though? I would be in favor of something like Link/Cloud/Charizard, or even Link/Cloud/MegaMan if Zard pulls off an upset (or not an upset? I can't tell anymore lol).
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#93 | Janus5000 | Posted 9/8/2013 12:02:32 AM | message detail
man Tifa cut Samus five minutes and no one cared

guessing she gets to 46% on Samus overnight before day takes her down a bit.
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#94 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/8/2013 12:02:40 AM | message detail
Julian_Caesar posted...
-LusterSoldier- posted...
If possible, we should try to get Bacon to run Link/Cloud/Mario for the next bonus match because all 3 of them have been eliminated already and that was one of 2 possible finals that we were expecting prior to the start of this contest. I'd rather have Link/Snake/Mario for our next bonus match, but Bacon probably won't run that match if Snake doesn't get eliminated next round.


Hasn't it already been established that Mario folds against Link, though? I would be in favor of something like Link/Cloud/Charizard, or even Link/Cloud/MegaMan if Zard pulls off an upset (or not an upset? I can't tell anymore lol).


...even pre-contest, Charizard was the massive favorite to win that match.
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#95 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 9/8/2013 12:03:59 AM | message detail
Okay doing some calculations, the current match projects Samus to get 75% on Pyramid Head, although I have no idea if I'm doing it right. I guess this means 53% on Auron, which is believable.
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#96 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/8/2013 12:04:54 AM | message detail
Janus5000 posted...
man Tifa cut Samus five minutes and no one cared

guessing she gets to 46% on Samus overnight before day takes her down a bit.


Man, if Tifa gets to 46% on Samus from here in the next 3-5 hours, Samus should be embarrassed.
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#97 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/8/2013 12:05:13 AM | message detail
Janus5000 posted...
man Tifa cut Samus five minutes and no one cared

guessing she gets to 46% on Samus overnight before day takes her down a bit.


She got a much bigger cut earlier in the match, too.

There's not a lot of implications to this, though. Samus's path is set in stone assuming Red doesn't choke tomorrow. I suppose you could try to gauge who would get 2nd in Draven/Snake/Samus but that's probably more dependent on who people perceive as being the better option to take down Draven than it is strength.
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#98 | Julian_Caesar | Posted 9/8/2013 12:09:12 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
...even pre-contest, Charizard was the massive favorite to win that match.


Yeah that's true, I forgot...what with Zero being in the poll and all.

Interesting question though, how would a Zard/MM play out as a 1v1? If we factor in this contest's Poke-boost, I think that could be a really close match (considering that Zard's earlier performances don't give me a lot of confidence that he could beat MM 1v1 otherwise).
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#99 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/8/2013 12:11:22 AM | message detail
Yeah, Samus is getting diced now. Once bitten, twice shy; but I'll take it nevertheless!
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#100 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/8/2013 12:11:49 AM | message detail
Another cut by Tifa. She only needs to cut 4.79 votes per update to win this, so she's ahead of the pace there...!
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