Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1162

#1 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/7/2013 10:07:51 PM | message detail
The glorious return of TJF! We've been expecting you.


~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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#2 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/7/2013 10:22:48 PM | message detail
#3 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/7/2013 10:23:15 PM | message detail
dangit ffxiv rally don't mention me
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#4 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/7/2013 10:24:57 PM | message detail
haha thank you swordz for sniping that
#5 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/7/2013 10:28:21 PM | message detail
Though while the results are polluted beyond repair now, it looks like Samus v Snake 2010 boils down to whether you think Squall 2010 can beat this Tifa.

Squall v Tifa v Sephiroth

let the battles for the #1 FF near-elite commence
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#6 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/7/2013 10:28:54 PM | message detail
So just when you think this contest doesn't make sense and RallyFAQs and you change your expert to the crazy idea of L-Block>Samus>Tifa you get a match that makes perfect sense

Clearly,4chan trolls us by not rallying L Block
#7 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/7/2013 10:30:08 PM | message detail
Now watch how next match we are back to chaos with Vivi>Squall>Red
#8 | Scarlettail | Posted 9/7/2013 10:30:59 PM | message detail
Hopefully we can sit back and relax on this one, and the next with Red.
#9 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 9/7/2013 10:31:19 PM | message detail
As an aside, I'm kinda curious - since Tales was mentioned in the last thread, how is it that JADE keeps getting in and being allowed to show us how bad he can stink it up, whereas Luke (who might be stronger considering that he managed a better percentage against better competition than Jade had in 2008) hasn't shown up again...?
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"Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
#10 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/7/2013 10:31:55 PM | message detail
It's a good thing Snake (probably) has a bye into the finals 'cause I know the MGS fanbase is pooped after making sure they got Pikachu over the hump n_n
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#11 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/7/2013 10:33:05 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Though while the results are polluted beyond repair now, it looks like Samus v Snake 2010 boils down to whether you think Squall 2010 can beat this Tifa.

Squall v Tifa v Sephiroth

let the battles for the #1 FF near-elite commence
...So you're saying Cloud has dropped all the way down to normal midcarder?

He's certainly not an elite at this point!
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#12 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 9/7/2013 10:33:49 PM | message detail
Fayt_Esteed posted...
As an aside, I'm kinda curious - since Tales was mentioned in the last thread, how is it that JADE keeps getting in and being allowed to show us how bad he can stink it up, whereas Luke (who might be stronger considering that he managed a better percentage against better competition than Jade had in 2008) hasn't shown up again...?


Jade is the fan favourite. That probably gets him more nominations since none of them have actual strength.
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#13 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/7/2013 10:34:01 PM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Though while the results are polluted beyond repair now, it looks like Samus v Snake 2010 boils down to whether you think Squall 2010 can beat this Tifa.

Squall v Tifa v Sephiroth

let the battles for the #1 FF near-elite commence
...So you're saying Cloud has dropped all the way down to normal midcarder?

He's certainly not an elite at this point!


He's probably traditional elite strength. Mario level.
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Welcome to the League of Downtime.
#14 | Zinganger | Posted 9/7/2013 10:35:11 PM | message detail | (edited)
Karma Hunter posted...
It's a good thing Snake (probably) has a bye into the finals 'cause I know the MGS fanbase is pooped after making sure they got Pikachu over the hump n_n


I absolutely love just how fitting this is for the MGS series.
#15 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 9/7/2013 10:37:42 PM | message detail
Team Rocket Elite posted...
Fayt_Esteed posted...
As an aside, I'm kinda curious - since Tales was mentioned in the last thread, how is it that JADE keeps getting in and being allowed to show us how bad he can stink it up, whereas Luke (who might be stronger considering that he managed a better percentage against better competition than Jade had in 2008) hasn't shown up again...?


Jade is the fan favourite. That probably gets him more nominations since none of them have actual strength.


Makes sense, but still, he got doubled by Frank West. He couldn't even get 6% in a match where Zack UNFair was the only dude worth anything notable.
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"Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
#16 | ZinsanityCraze | Posted 9/7/2013 10:38:51 PM | message detail
I would take Squall to beat Tifa, Snake looks safe to be #2 at the moment. 65% on the strongest Kefka really isn't that bad because it's evident that the gap between N9 and the rest of the field has narrowed over the past few years.
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DonDonDiDi
#17 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/7/2013 10:41:42 PM | message detail
Snake also would have done better without Sprite Snake being his only look in 25% of the match pictures, assuredly.

...Samus on the other hand kinda needs to hope that Tifa simply has her number and can get a wacky amount of Female Video Game Postergirl rSFF on her every time they meet.

Which I'm not ruling out!
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#18 | KamikazePotato | Posted 9/7/2013 10:42:09 PM | message detail
Samus might not look too good by this end of this.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#19 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/7/2013 10:47:30 PM | message detail
...So Tifa is the only FFVII character you can effectively rally for.

No wonder everybody hates that fanbase.

And dunno about rSFF, but Female Video Game Postergirl SFF does appear to actually be a thing.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/1749

Lara Croft has never looked anywhere remotely close to that horrible before or since.
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#20 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/7/2013 10:49:53 PM | message detail
Tifa getting the better end of that stick against Samus though would be quite humiliating. I mean, it's the Original Gaming Gal stacked up against Boobs McGee.
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#21 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 9/7/2013 10:52:43 PM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
And dunno about rSFF, but Female Video Game Postergirl SFF does appear to actually be a thing.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/1749

Lara Croft has never looked anywhere remotely close to that horrible before or since.


Ouch.
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"Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
#22 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/7/2013 10:55:48 PM | message detail
Samus and Tifa taking turns sapping L-Block's percentage now
#23 | Yuri_LowelI | Posted 9/7/2013 11:01:10 PM | message detail
What does L stand for?

LOSER

And I love both tifa and Samus. It looks like women have to do the hard work in saving this contest as men are useless. Go girls.
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#24 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/7/2013 11:02:08 PM | message detail
Yuri_LowelI posted...
And I love both tifa and Samus. It looks like women have to do the hard work in saving this contest as men are useless. Go girls.


Samus>Draven confirmed?

inb4 Mewtwo is genderless and will take Draven out first
#25 | WhiteLens | Posted 9/7/2013 11:03:43 PM | message detail
Welp incoming -54, that erased everything I gained from getting the last match all correct.
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#26 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 9/7/2013 11:05:51 PM | message detail
>> Women
>> Hard work

Haw haw.

But seriously, if by saving the contest you mean preventing a Draven win, it's either Mewtwo or Snake right?
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#27 | Julian_Caesar | Posted 9/7/2013 11:07:46 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
Samus and Tifa taking turns sapping L-Block's percentage now


So.....much....innuendo.......must resist............

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yhtFKNNd04A
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#28 | Delseban | Posted 9/7/2013 11:07:56 PM | message detail | (edited)
From: Fayt_Esteed | #015
Team Rocket Elite posted...
Fayt_Esteed posted...
As an aside, I'm kinda curious - since Tales was mentioned in the last thread, how is it that JADE keeps getting in and being allowed to show us how bad he can stink it up, whereas Luke (who might be stronger considering that he managed a better percentage against better competition than Jade had in 2008) hasn't shown up again...?


Jade is the fan favourite. That probably gets him more nominations since none of them have actual strength.


Makes sense, but still, he got doubled by Frank West. He couldn't even get 6% in a match where Zack UNFair was the only dude worth anything notable.


You'd be surprised how good a character Jade is. There's a reason Tales fans keep nominating him. Just saying.
#29 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/7/2013 11:13:38 PM | message detail | (edited)
Mewtwo's got the best shot. Samus doesn't look to be stronger than Snake (I'm actively ignoring these results where she looks much worse than him) but she won't fold in the finals. She still has an outside shot of beating Snake. That's an anchor Snake couldn't afford against even a severely crippled Draven, even worse than Sephiroth will be on Mewtwo.

Of course, both of their shots are awful, and Draven's chances of winning are in excess of 99%, and Allen was being ridiculous when he suggested otherwise, but that's neither here nor there.
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Welcome to the League of Downtime.
#30 | Baseman (Moderator) | Posted 9/7/2013 11:10:54 PM | message detail
So, who's got what for tomorrow?
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#31 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/7/2013 11:12:51 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
Samus and Tifa taking turns sapping L-Block's percentage now

So they got to play volleyball after all!

And yeah I don't think this match looks especially good for Samus. I'm of the opinion she peaked in strength after Metroid Prime came out and has remained roughly the same strength ever since. Possible drop since 2010 I guess because of the bad thing that happened but let's not get into that.

It's still early there but judging by Britain this is going to be a brutal night vote, too. That's worse than what Cloud had on Samus. The hell?
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#32 | Qwaar | Posted 9/7/2013 11:13:05 PM | message detail
Baseman posted...
So, who's got what for tomorrow?


I have Squall -> Red -> Vivi, but that will probably change.
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#33 | spooky96 | Posted 9/7/2013 11:13:14 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
#34 | spooky96 | Posted 9/7/2013 11:14:00 PM | message detail
Oh yeah, I've got Squall > Red > Vivi
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#35 | SnoicFactor | Posted 9/7/2013 11:14:06 PM | message detail
Draven won this contest. You need someone as strong as base Link to stand a chance. There is no one else. Link is simply liked by the masses so it's also easier to rally for him.
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nt
#36 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/7/2013 11:14:59 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Mewtwo's got the best shot. Samus doesn't look to be stronger than Snake (I'm actively ignoring these results where she looks much worse) but she won't fold in the finals. She still has an outside shot of beating Snake. That's an anchor Snake couldn't afford against even a severely crippled Draven.

Of course, both of their shots are awful, and Draven's chances of winning are in excess of 99%, and Allen was being ridiculous when he suggested otherwise, but that's neither here nor there.


Allen gonna turn heel on reddit by removing 90% of Draven's votes in the final



hey, I can dream
#37 | Yuri_LowelI | Posted 9/7/2013 11:14:59 PM | message detail
Sephiroth draven would be better
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#38 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 9/7/2013 11:16:07 PM | message detail
Baseman posted...
So, who's got what for tomorrow?


Red > Squall > Vivi is probably the most likely outcome. Pokemon have largely looked like superstars. Squall and Vivi may hurt each other as well. Vivi could get rallied to first but if Red puts up a strong showing, Vivi will end up like how L-Block is right now. Squall may end up beating Red anyways if Red chokes so a lot of things can happen.
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#39 | Yuri_LowelI | Posted 9/7/2013 11:20:41 PM | message detail
SnoicFactor posted...
Draven won this contest. You need someone as strong as base Link to stand a chance. There is no one else. Link is simply liked by the masses so it's also easier to rally for him.


Actually or Pokemon is easier to rally. Link just has enormous base strength. Rallying for link outside Zelda fan sites is really hard. If link was a Pokemon with that strength. Draven would have lost Monday easily.
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#40 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/7/2013 11:22:00 PM | message detail
Oh and btw, Tifa doesn't have a rally, they've been taken down and have been for a while now (unless you count the pitifully small one in the dead ff subreddit). I'm still going to ignore this result because it's polluted, we could have a weird dynamic with Samus/Tifa as evidenced by their first match, etc etc.

But if you insist on me using this match it's good news for Crono
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#41 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/7/2013 11:22:15 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Tifa getting the better end of that stick against Samus though would be quite humiliating. I mean, it's the Original Gaming Gal stacked up against Boobs McGee.


I'm not surprised. I suggested the idea out there in Tifa's first round match that she would look better than her FFVII counterparts simply because both of her opponents were female.

While Samus is "the Original Gaming Gal," her appeal isn't her femininity. It's the Power Suit and all that comes along with it. If it comes down to a battle of "Hottest Gaming Girl," Tifa's gonna win that just about every time since she was basically designed to be Nomura's dream girl.
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#42 | Luigiman59 | Posted 9/7/2013 11:22:48 PM | message detail
A Sephiroth/Snake/Samus final would be amazing
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#43 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/7/2013 11:23:23 PM | message detail
Also hoping Red pulls a Sora tomorrow.

Gotta hope Squall has enough of a natural strength advantage to be able to beat Red despite Vivi. I honestly think he does, but RallyFAQs and all that.
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#44 | spooky96 | Posted 9/7/2013 11:23:24 PM | message detail
Luigiman59 posted...
A Sephiroth/Snake/Samus final would be amazing


Sephiroth would come painfully last...
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#45 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/7/2013 11:23:36 PM | message detail
But if you insist on me using this match it's good news for Crono

Sounds good to me.
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#46 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/7/2013 11:24:45 PM | message detail
And to add to what I said a minute ago, bear in mind that three of Samus's pictures feature Zero Suit Samus (alongside a Power Suit Samus in the last pic, so it might cancel it out), so it might be having some effect.
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#47 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 9/7/2013 11:24:49 PM | message detail
Team Rocket Elite posted...
Baseman posted...
So, who's got what for tomorrow?


Red > Squall > Vivi is probably the most likely outcome. Pokemon have largely looked like superstars. Squall and Vivi may hurt each other as well. Vivi could get rallied to first but if Red puts up a strong showing, Vivi will end up like how L-Block is right now. Squall may end up beating Red anyways if Red chokes so a lot of things can happen.


I can't help but feel Vivi won't stand up to Squall's SFF well...
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"Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
#48 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/7/2013 11:25:22 PM | message detail
Prepare for the Pokemon fanbase to rally tomorrow.......for Squall. That sets up Squall/Samus/Charizard, much more winnable than Red/Charizard/Samus.
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10 championships is not enough. ZeldaFAQs thirsts for more.
#49 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/7/2013 11:25:57 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Tifa getting the better end of that stick against Samus though would be quite humiliating. I mean, it's the Original Gaming Gal stacked up against Boobs McGee.


I'm not surprised. I suggested the idea out there in Tifa's first round match that she would look better than her FFVII counterparts simply because both of her opponents were female.

While Samus is "the Original Gaming Gal," her appeal isn't her femininity. It's the Power Suit and all that comes along with it. If it comes down to a battle of "Hottest Gaming Girl," Tifa's gonna win that just about every time since she was basically designed to be Nomura's dream girl.


Postulating rSFF on Samus via that dynamic, though? Possible, but hard to swallow. Then again, we've got half the topic believing that Mario rSFFs her these days (albeit in a much more traditional way).

This match would be a knock against Samus/Mario rSFF though. It may be that Samus is not as independent from Mario's troubles as we thought.
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#50 | silver_lee | Posted 9/7/2013 11:26:39 PM | message detail
There are so many pokemon in this character battle we should turn this into a pokemon character battle.