Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1161

#1 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/7/2013 6:26:08 PM | message detail
Shaped like an L to make everyone else lose.


~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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#2 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/7/2013 6:39:54 PM | message detail
#3 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/7/2013 6:39:55 PM | message detail
bumpo
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Main_Page, Rest in peace Kazbar :(
#4 | xp1337 | Posted 9/7/2013 6:40:16 PM | message detail
don't know why but i cracked up seeing the WELCOME get broken up by that 500 post.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#5 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/7/2013 6:40:37 PM | message detail
#6 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/7/2013 6:41:01 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Darn you Metroid Prime


sup, I broke your combo
#7 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/7/2013 6:41:46 PM | message detail
Samus gon' get what's comin' to her
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#8 | Greyfeld | Posted 9/7/2013 6:42:46 PM | message detail
Even if nobody rallies pikachu before now and the end of the match, Sora needs to ramp up the cuts if he's going to have a chance of taking the lead.

I'm crossing my fingers, but I doubt it's going to happen.
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PSN - Aevio
"I'm on a Goomba." - BlackMageJawa
#9 | nkansas13 | Posted 9/7/2013 6:44:09 PM | message detail
Are there any Sora rallies?
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Hey I just met you, and this is crazy, but you have died of dysentery.
#10 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 9/7/2013 6:44:44 PM | message detail
Hope Sora pulls it off, but I'm not holding my breath (might be possible if Pikachu has no more pushes)

I'm not sure if I need this match or not to have a shot at the guru... I think a Pikachu win may lead to me tying and losing the tiebreaker or something
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I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword
#11 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/7/2013 6:45:11 PM | message detail
Welcome to the League of L-Block.
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2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2010, 2011
10 championships is not enough. ZeldaFAQs thirsts for more.
#12 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 9/7/2013 6:45:30 PM | message detail
Sora is another antivote target so I don't know if he can be effectively rallied.
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I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword
#13 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/7/2013 6:45:31 PM | message detail
#14 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/7/2013 6:46:22 PM | message detail
Sora's back where he was 3 hours ago. Gotta commend him for fighting back.
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2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2010, 2011
10 championships is not enough. ZeldaFAQs thirsts for more.
#15 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/7/2013 6:47:16 PM | message detail
Time to see what Pikachu does now.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
#16 | GloriousSweater | Posted 9/7/2013 6:48:55 PM | message detail
Holy crap, these votals are atrocious. I'd have figured they'd at least be around Sephiroth/Kirby level given the outside support I assumed Pikachu needed, but nope, not even close. Sora is just letting the Pokemon fanbase have this. First Kefka, then Cloud, now this. Did Vivi sap the willpower of every other Square entrant to muster what he did? It's a miracle Sephiroth survived.
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Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
http://i.imgur.com/NQTthNf.jpg
#17 | Greyfeld | Posted 9/7/2013 6:49:13 PM | message detail
I tried rallying Sora this morning in /r/kingdomhearts and /r/disney. Neither of them have really gotten very much traffic.
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PSN - Aevio
"I'm on a Goomba." - BlackMageJawa
#18 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/7/2013 6:52:00 PM | message detail
Pikachu's rally has been mostly confined to one jolt at the beginning of the match and a few sporadic attempts to nurse the lead throughout the day. Sora might be winning now without outside interference but like 99% of this flop is just on him.
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Welcome to the League of Downtime.
#19 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/7/2013 6:52:42 PM | message detail
I personally blame yoblazer for this loss.

If not for that "inspired" rant last night, this might never have happened.
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#20 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/7/2013 6:53:26 PM | message detail
Yeah Pikachu's rallied like 500 votes max. As for what Pikachu needs to do now: nothing. He needs no more rallies. The clock will run out in 2 hours and Sora doesn't have enough time with these pathetic votals to make up these last 300 votes.
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2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2010, 2011
10 championships is not enough. ZeldaFAQs thirsts for more.
#21 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 9/7/2013 6:56:05 PM | message detail
Fun fact: Pokémon has never lost a close match (with the possible exception of Zelda > Mudkip, but that didn't even count)
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Harmony is peace. Peace is unity. Unity is harmony. I tell this to the King Nook. He ask me to leave.
#22 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/7/2013 6:57:25 PM | message detail
Zelda/Mudkip wasn't even that close. She wasn't even threatened.

I'd call Luigi/Ganon/Mudkip a close match before I'd call that one a close match. Mudkip actually was in first for a long time and eventually got passed by both of them.
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#23 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/7/2013 6:58:54 PM | message detail
The idea of Mudkip dropping Luigi/Ganon/Mudkip seems positively preposterous these days.
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Welcome to the League of Downtime.
#24 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/7/2013 7:01:27 PM | message detail | (edited)
Oh yeah, no way that happens.

By the time Ganondorf overtook Mudkip, that match already had 34,000 votes (at 6 A.M.!). Luigi didn't overtake Mudkip until 10 A.M. (and the match already had more votes than this one will finish with).
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"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."
#25 | GloriousSweater | Posted 9/7/2013 7:00:46 PM | message detail
After Lugia? I think Mudkip would look worse. It's the Gen 1ers that would rip that match apart.
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Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif
#26 | JJH777 | Posted 9/7/2013 7:02:13 PM | message detail
273 votes again. Last time Sora got it this low Pikachu started making big gains again.
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If you believe that Abed is the true Messiah and you are 100% proud of it make this your signature.
#27 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/7/2013 7:03:08 PM | message detail
GloriousSweater posted...
After Lugia? I think Mudkip would look worse. It's the Gen 1ers that would rip that match apart.


Nah, Mudkip has reasons to be better than any other non-Gen 1 Pokemon does. The Lugia comparison isn't a fair one. Keep in mind that Mudkip barely missed the cut in 2010 despite being in a vote-in poll with Missingno and Jigglypuff.
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http://gifsoup.com/view/477513/red-vs-blue-road-rage-part-1-o.gif
http://gifsoup.com/view/477534/red-vs-blue-road-rage-part-2-o.gif
#28 | GloriousSweater | Posted 9/7/2013 7:04:52 PM | message detail
I don't follow Pokemon - what are Mudkip's reasons apart from the meme? The Mudkip and Bidoof memes died like five years ago.
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Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
http://i.imgur.com/a4GuDV3.gif
#29 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/7/2013 7:05:27 PM | message detail
Yeah, Mudkip isn't about the Gen, it's about the joke. It's a joke entity that happens to be Pokemon on top of it. Double the rally power and double the impact on s***ty votals. Even Missingno doesn't get as much 4chan support as the mudkipz.
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Welcome to the League of Downtime.
#30 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/7/2013 7:05:52 PM | message detail
Oh, their natural strengths would suck.

But this is RallyFAQs.
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"The great GF...Bahamut."
"...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..."
#31 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/7/2013 7:07:28 PM | message detail
Now Sora's got the lead even lower than he had it last time!
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#32 | abdou | Posted 9/7/2013 7:09:49 PM | message detail
Pika should start stalling/gaining really soon now
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#33 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/7/2013 7:09:51 PM | message detail
Leon I will punch you
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Welcome to the League of Downtime.
#34 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/7/2013 7:12:23 PM | message detail
This is incredibly cheesy, but hey, why not. It came true!

red sox 777 | Posted 5/30/2009 5:55:20 PM | message detail
I want to be the very best
like no one ever was
To crush them all is my real test
to enslave them is my cause

I will travel across the land
searching far and wide
each Square game to pulverize
and make all its fans cry

NINTENDO!
It's you and me
I know it's my destiny
NINTENDO!
Oh, you're my master
in a world we must oppress

NINTENDO!
Our hearts so dark
Our evil will pull us through
You teach me and I'll teach you
NINTENDO!
Gotta crush 'em all, gotta crush 'em all!
Yeah
Gotta crush 'em all!

Every hero along the way
Every swordsman and mage
I will battle every day
To claim my rightful place
Come with me, the time is right
We'll beat even Cloud
And throw down Midgar itself
It's always been our dream

Gotta crush 'em all!

---
2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2010, 2011
10 championships is not enough. ZeldaFAQs thirsts for more.
#35 | jacko_vdz | Posted 9/7/2013 7:12:27 PM | message detail
Been saving my vote in case Pikachu needs it to pull off the win. I really want to vote for Blue though!! Such a tough decision.
#36 | swordz9 | Posted 9/7/2013 7:14:15 PM | message detail
There are still a couple Pokemon characters who could be relatively decent in a contest. Professor Oak, Misty and Brock for example and that's not counting actual Pokemon since Bulbasaur and Charmander would likely do well too.
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http://myanimelist.net/animelist/swordz9
#37 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/7/2013 7:14:43 PM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
This is incredibly cheesy, but hey, why not. It came true!

red sox 777 | Posted 5/30/2009 5:55:20 PM | message detail
I want to be the very best
like no one ever was
To crush them all is my real test
to enslave them is my cause

I will travel across the land
searching far and wide
each Square game to pulverize
and make all its fans cry

NINTENDO!
It's you and me
I know it's my destiny
NINTENDO!
Oh, you're my master
in a world we must oppress

NINTENDO!
Our hearts so dark
Our evil will pull us through
You teach me and I'll teach you
NINTENDO!
Gotta crush 'em all, gotta crush 'em all!
Yeah
Gotta crush 'em all!

Every hero along the way
Every swordsman and mage
I will battle every day
To claim my rightful place
Come with me, the time is right
We'll beat even Cloud
And throw down Midgar itself
It's always been our dream

Gotta crush 'em all!


I'm hopeful for that plucky underdog Ekans next round though
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Welcome to the League of Downtime.
#38 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/7/2013 7:15:36 PM | message detail
swordz9 posted...
There are still a couple Pokemon characters who could be relatively decent in a contest. Professor Oak, Misty and Brock for example and that's not counting actual Pokemon since Bulbasaur and Charmander would likely do well too.


...half of Gen 1 are probably high midcarders at this point what are you talking about.
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Welcome to the League of Downtime.
#39 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/7/2013 7:16:23 PM | message detail
I'm telling you guys

When Bacon said the next contest won't be CBX, he's planning on having a Pokemon Battle.
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http://gifsoup.com/view/477534/red-vs-blue-road-rage-part-2-o.gif
#40 | swordz9 | Posted 9/7/2013 7:19:00 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
swordz9 posted...
There are still a couple Pokemon characters who could be relatively decent in a contest. Professor Oak, Misty and Brock for example and that's not counting actual Pokemon since Bulbasaur and Charmander would likely do well too.


...half of Gen 1 are probably high midcarders at this point what are you talking about.

I wouldn't say half. It's mostly a select few that would do well and maybe a couple jokes. Of course anybody could rally them if they want, but a fair amount should be beyond pathetic. Not even Smash Bros helped Jigglypuff avoid looking like a joke. A couple human characters and maybe a dozen or so Gen 1 Pokemon and that's probably it at most. Those Pokemon are iconic ones too.
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http://myanimelist.net/animelist/swordz9
#41 | Wanglicious | Posted 9/7/2013 7:19:08 PM | message detail
Pokemon
DOTA2
LoL
Zelda series


243 entries in threeways.
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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.
#42 | ZFS | Posted 9/7/2013 7:21:27 PM | message detail
SAMUS let's go bash some Block
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#43 | swordz9 | Posted 9/7/2013 7:23:03 PM | message detail
There are some who aren't even eligible, but could be decent if they were like Jessie and James.
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http://myanimelist.net/animelist/swordz9
#44 | Wanglicious | Posted 9/7/2013 7:26:19 PM | message detail
next year's new Pokemon:

Meowth (replacing Jigglypuff)
Gyarados (replacing Magikarp)
Prefessor Oak (replacing Blue)
Tyranitar (replacing Lugia)
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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.
#45 | swordz9 | Posted 9/7/2013 7:29:03 PM | message detail
Tyranitar more like too late. You'd be better off replacing Lugia with Articuno, Zapdos or Moltres. Articuno is most popular of those 3 I think.
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http://myanimelist.net/animelist/swordz9
#46 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/7/2013 7:29:17 PM | message detail
Sora needs to cut 13.6 votes per update to win.

Good luck...!
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#47 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/7/2013 7:30:05 PM | message detail
As far as new Pokemon, I'd support Blastoise and one of the legendary birds (preferably Articuno, but Zapdos is fine, too. Moltres is eh, he's probably the weakest of the three).
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http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v516/Sensui22/1248835958206.png
#48 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/7/2013 7:30:47 PM | message detail
leon pls
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Welcome to the League of Downtime.
#49 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/7/2013 7:31:31 PM | message detail
It's up to 14.3 per update now.

Darn it, Sora! Go faster!
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#50 | Wanglicious | Posted 9/7/2013 7:32:00 PM | message detail
T-Tar has a case for being the strongest Gen 2 guy! there is nobody who has been used more than him from the generation, he's a "big deal" in the anime, and he looks awesome.

Zapdos would be p. awesome though, yeah.
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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.