Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1160

#351 | anondum | Posted 9/7/2013 2:34:14 PM | message detail
tifa > squall
#352 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/7/2013 2:35:24 PM | message detail
And Squirtle beating Cloud wasn't even that unexpected. We were discussing it throughout Cloud's and Squirtle's second round matches. I think the only thing that tempered people's expectations was Sephiroth winning his match despite virtually nobody expecting him to (or so it seemed). If Sephiroth had lost to Kirby, everyone would've sided with Squirtle.
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#353 | XIII_rocks | Posted 9/7/2013 2:37:29 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
1337gamerpr0 posted...
what, are you trying to say Snake losing that wouldn't be an upset?


The fact that we're even entertaining this discussion says a lot.


It says a lot for the extent of Pokefear!

But it seems the whole "if you think a Pokemon winning a match is an upset then you must believe they are plucky underdogs in every match they compete in, without exception" attitude has taken over
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#354 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/7/2013 2:38:59 PM | message detail
Considering that's the way the board reacts, yeah.

And considering that seems to be what the board wants, yeah.
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#355 | XIII_rocks | Posted 9/7/2013 2:43:21 PM | message detail
I'm pretty sure the board overwhelmingly favoured Charizard in Round 2 and overwhelmingly favours him in Round 3. Overwhelmingly favoured Missingno against Tidus, and favoured him against Squall pre-contest. Squirtle was an underdog against Cloud. Arguing otherwise is insanity. Not much of one, people were saying it was a distinct possibility, but Cloud should have been favourite going in, and he was.

But I guess you see what you want to see.
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#356 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/7/2013 2:45:26 PM | message detail
Pre-contest expectations and what we're expecting now are two totally different discussions. There's a reason why nobody had Squirtle > Cloud pre-contest and why nobody was that surprised when it actually happened.
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#357 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/7/2013 2:47:13 PM | message detail
But it happened because of a big rally.
Also Sora is behind Pikachu in USA by around 0.25% only. That means he will cut more votes too.
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#358 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/7/2013 2:49:44 PM | message detail
Denzokuken posted...
Damn that Guybrush and his 96 stuffed votes! Villain!


1337gamerpr0 posted...
*97 stuffed votes


Actually, it was 94 stuffed votes.
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#359 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/7/2013 2:51:07 PM | message detail
Yeah, the natural trends favor Sora. But there's only so many votes he can get from them. There are only about 10,000 voters that will vote in the remainder of this match (non-rallied). Blue is taking up 20% of them. Even if Sora beats Pikachu 55-45 with the remainder, which is being very generous to him, that's only 800 votes. Pikachu would need to rally less than 300 votes to stop that.
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#360 | abdou | Posted 9/7/2013 2:52:54 PM | message detail
Sora trying, but the rallies will definitely keep him from pulling this off.
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#361 | Scarlettail | Posted 9/7/2013 2:55:02 PM | message detail
People are still rallying this?
#362 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/7/2013 2:56:03 PM | message detail
My apologies, haven't refreshed the updater page in a few hours.

The analysis doesn't really change. Sora has about 7000 natural votes left in the poll to work with. Blue is taking up 20%. If Sora beats Pikachu 55-45 with the remainder, he picks up around 560 votes. Pikachu only has to rally 200 votes to stop that.
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#363 | psychward | Posted 9/7/2013 2:59:13 PM | message detail
Any chance the pokemon crowd starts rallying Sora so squirtle and pickachu don't SFF each other?
#364 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/7/2013 2:59:52 PM | message detail
Is there really a rally going on? I don't think so.
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#365 | XIII_rocks | Posted 9/7/2013 3:03:05 PM | message detail | (edited)
Thus why I added "pre-contest" when I was talking about Squall/Mizno. Mizno was favoured against Squall pre-contest, but possibly became an underdog in that match after struggling with Tidus. Don't know what the expert statistics were for it.

I'd still say Squirtle was an underdog even right before the match. A quick scan of the oracle topic gives Cloud a 27-5 majority in the first two pages, and the next three pages show a huge Cloud majority too (after page 2 you get to people making changed picks to slightly different percentages, couldn't be bothered seeing exactly who had changed to what, but like I said, still a big majority for Cloud). Squirtle was an underdog there. There's no pretense. Maybe you think that the "plucky underdog" must be likeable, and because Squirtle is one of "the enemy" he couldn't possibly be one. I don't know.

I just don't understand the attitude. Just say that you don't like Pokemon fans. You don't have to come up with illogical, passive-aggressive attempts to s*** on them. Just say their taste enrages you. Just say it. This "all Pokemon fans, all of them, all of them ever, have deluded themselves into thinking Pokemon is always the underdog, in every match Pokemon competes in!" crap is silly, because it falls apart at the seams with the slightest bit of prodding. We're at the point where you're pretending Snake finishing last in a match with Squirtle and Pikachu wouldn't be an upset just to fit things into that idea. The only reason I can come up with for the continual usage of such a non-point, such an incorrect idea, is that it's an attempt to passively insult Pokemon fans without wanting to appear immature by openly saying what you really mean: that the series' dominance pisses you off to no end, and the people who vote for Pokemon piss you off too.
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#366 | abdou | Posted 9/7/2013 3:00:52 PM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
Is there really a rally going on? I don't think so.


There is absolutely 100% rallying for Pikachu.
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#367 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/7/2013 3:01:18 PM | message detail
I wouldn't put it past them. We're talking about the second most sophisticated fanbase in contests here, behind Zelda. The hivemind would just have to decide that they are throwing away Charizard instead of Squirtle/Pikachu.
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#368 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/7/2013 3:01:43 PM | message detail
But according to vote totals all are normal. So the rally must be small.
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#369 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/7/2013 3:03:19 PM | message detail
Part of the reason for the low votals is the LFF, but yeah, this rally is much much weaker than yesterday's. Cloud probably wins yesterday by 4-5000 votes without the rally. At this point in the poll, I'm not sure if Sora is even ahead yet without the rally.
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#370 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/7/2013 3:04:24 PM | message detail
Despite the LFF, this match will get more votes than Snake's match and that had 3 very different fanbases featured in that match.
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#371 | abdou | Posted 9/7/2013 3:04:31 PM | message detail
It is small, but enough to keep Sora from winning. Also vote totals should be quite low in this match, because SFF always hurts the votals.
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#372 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/7/2013 3:05:21 PM | message detail
We're slightly ahead of Snake/Kefka/GlaDOS in vote totals, so yeah, probably not hitting 50,000 here.
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#373 | Scarlettail | Posted 9/7/2013 3:06:19 PM | message detail
There's little rallying because of the fact that a Pikachu win is not ideal. If he wins naturally, fine, but there's no serious efforts to make sure he wins.
#374 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/7/2013 3:06:26 PM | message detail
We're probably getting between 48000-49000 votes on this match.
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#375 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/7/2013 3:09:40 PM | message detail
I'm ready for an L-Block display of power tonight. He's got this round and next to build his power before the showdown with Draven.
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#376 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/7/2013 3:10:34 PM | message detail
Let's see if we can get a rally going for Tifa.

Just experiment to see if TJF can overwhelm anti-FFVII sentiments!
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#377 | Scarlettail | Posted 9/7/2013 3:11:09 PM | message detail
Come on guys, Samus is the one.
#378 | SnoicFactor | Posted 9/7/2013 3:12:10 PM | message detail | (edited)
Sora is pathetic now lol.. Even afte a KH3 announcement, he can't beat a restricted Pikachu.
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nt
#379 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/7/2013 3:15:32 PM | message detail
L stands out pretty well. Samus is strong, but Tifa will be dragging her down.

Next round, I want to see L above 50% against Charizard and Red, shutting Pokemon out of the final 3 and making him the clear challenger to Draven. Then we'll reenact 2007. By my estimates, L got around 40k votes in that final from outside GameFAQs. That is comparable with Draven. Add on Gamefaqs votes, and we can do it.

........I can dream.
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#380 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/7/2013 3:20:02 PM | message detail
Besides, the x-stats say L-Block beats Draven with around 52.5% and the x-stats would never lie to me. Never. Magus would have beaten Squall just like they said, it's just that Knuckles was behind some major Snake/Echidna SFF.
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#381 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/7/2013 3:21:36 PM | message detail
The smart thing for the ralliers here is to NOT rally Pika and let Sora win and next round to rally Squirtle to beat Snake too. But will they do that?
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#382 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/7/2013 3:22:21 PM | message detail
Sora's cut 100 votes in the last hour, so we'll see how it goes.
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#383 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/7/2013 3:24:45 PM | message detail
Draven's name is in one of the Samus pics for tomorrow. Run for the hills.
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#384 | The_Djoker | Posted 9/7/2013 3:25:14 PM | message detail
red no offence but you need to let this crapblock thing go. The sooner Samus or someone takes this thing out the better. Hopefully L block is banned in all future contests.
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#385 | The_Djoker | Posted 9/7/2013 3:26:16 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Sora's cut 100 votes in the last hour, so we'll see how it goes.


Really hope for the sake of this contest he doesn't come back.
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#386 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/7/2013 3:26:26 PM | message detail
Why? Don't tell me what characters I can and can't like. I would vote L over most of the remaining characters- because I like him more as a character.
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10 championships is not enough. ZeldaFAQs thirsts for more.
#387 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 9/7/2013 3:26:31 PM | message detail
300!
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#388 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/7/2013 3:26:48 PM | message detail
Wow, I just looked at the updates again and Sora has really picked up the pace recently.
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#389 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/7/2013 3:27:06 PM | message detail
He needs to win in order to have an amazing semifinal match.
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#390 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/7/2013 3:27:10 PM | message detail
#391 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 9/7/2013 3:27:32 PM | message detail
What happened here? I thought Blue would've SFFed Pikachu to some significant degree, but instead, he just rolled over and died. Maybe he was just that weak...?
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#392 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/7/2013 3:28:32 PM | message detail
Blue's holding up better than most same franchise characters have, actually.

A lot better.
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#393 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/7/2013 3:29:24 PM | message detail
Aren't we heading into the SNV soon? Granted I'm not too familiar with Sora's or Pokemon's though I imagine they're both mediocre at best naturally... just a matter of whose is worse.
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#394 | im317 | Posted 9/7/2013 3:29:30 PM | message detail
clearly the joke vote bloc chose not to back Blue here because it would hurt L-Block next round.
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#395 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/7/2013 3:29:55 PM | message detail
We haven't seen an SNV from Sora in 5 years!
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#396 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/7/2013 3:30:51 PM | message detail
Sora's SNV is pretty good, IIRC. Among the characters with good day votes Sora's SNV is one of the best.
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#397 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/7/2013 3:31:16 PM | message detail
I know, just like how we haven't seen a FNV from Crono in 5 years. But I imagine we have some historical trends...?
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#398 | shane15 | Posted 9/7/2013 3:32:04 PM | message detail
Come on Sora! Pokémon is ruining this contest so do us all a favour and destroy the rat.
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#399 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/7/2013 3:32:05 PM | message detail
Looking at past trends, it looks like once Sora hits day vote mode, he doesn't stop until the match ends.
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#400 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/7/2013 3:32:14 PM | message detail
What? We haven't seen Crono's FNV in 5 years?

But, but...........

You're right. That's..........I'm speechless.
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