Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1160

#151 | Fr0zoN | Posted 9/7/2013 3:10:43 AM | message detail
Why would pokemon fans vote Pikachu over Blue? Ughhhh
#152 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/7/2013 3:12:10 AM | message detail
This is the biggest mystery of this contest
#153 | -Zelmor- | Posted 9/7/2013 3:15:56 AM | message detail
Lightning Strikes posted...

Either way, based on Pikachu and Crono Snake would have had to have boosted quite a bit to surpass Mario (he hasn't). Seriously, one argument for Snake having boosted. Please. You have people acting like it's fact when there is no evidence.


Snake totally needs a big boost to score 53% on Crono. I know X hurt Mario there but please do not forget that it was a day match that heavily favors Mario over Crono.

I would say this Sora is even weaker than his 2010 iteration, just look at his first 2 matches and Riku's performance.
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#154 | Yuri_LowelI | Posted 9/7/2013 3:17:15 AM | message detail
Lightning Strikes posted...
Yuri_LowelI posted...
Denzokuken posted...
Snake can't win because Smaus is pretty much guaranteed a place in the final, and Snake can't beat her.


Lol. Samus is weaker now. Snake is stronger. Last time they met Samus had an upper hand in.terms of prime 3 and Wii fad. Snake got boost but now he's legit. 2nd strongest on this site.


Wrong, Snake is even or a little weaker. He underperformed on Kefka, who otherwise looked consistent. Plus, why would Snake get stronger? It doesn't make any sense. And while Snake has looked good, it's not like he has had any performances that looked THAT good. Samus... Hard to say. Either way, based on Pikachu and Crono Snake would have had to have boosted quite a bit to surpass Mario (he hasn't). Seriously, one argument for Snake having boosted. Please. You have people acting like it's fact when there is no evidence.


My evidence is that he's had several boosting factors. Stop using 3 way performances as evidence. Kafka is unknown.
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#155 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/7/2013 3:20:02 AM | message detail
My Guru Bracket lives on! Somehow!
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#156 | Yuri_LowelI | Posted 9/7/2013 3:20:08 AM | message detail
Fr0zoN posted...
Why would pokemon fans vote Pikachu over Blue? Ughhhh


Nintendo and Pokemon aren't exactly the same thing now. Pikachu gets a lot of his votes from Nintendo core fanbase. Blue is mostly Pokemon. Weak one at that. You put Red in this poll. Red would probably win it outright. Pokemon fanbase doesn't given. Crap about Blue. It's not hard to understand.
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#157 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/7/2013 3:21:39 AM | message detail
Just to catch up on the last topic since I missed it!

I'm glad someone remembers ReSTALLver LOSSalot. Perhaps my finest Stats Topic moment aside from my "Proof that Magus is overrated" rant from 2005 (although it turned out to be giving Magus a bit TOO much credit...!).

Also, just so everyone knows, I'm officially retiring the Nomination Rally Tournament.

It will be replaced by the Pokemon Rally Tournament instead. Top four Pokemon will get pushed hard by B8 for some more scrappy, plucky fun!

We'll also have our customary Returners Tournament, for the honor of giving one Pokemon a second shot at glory! Who will win the epic battle between Lucario and Nidoran F? Stay tuned!
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#158 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 9/7/2013 3:25:13 AM | message detail
I'll be pushing very hard for Metapod.
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#159 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/7/2013 3:29:15 AM | message detail
Actually this performance by Pokemon isn't that crazy,it only projects Pikachu a 60% win on Sora

Give Pikachu 100% of Blue votes,he only gets 62% on Sora
Of course some people prefer Blue>Sora>Pikachu,so at best Pikachu ends up with 60% on Sora...it can be even worse
#160 | Yuri_LowelI | Posted 9/7/2013 3:30:09 AM | message detail
Pokemon we need in replacement of jokes like missing no Lugias and magic Karp.

-Gengar
- dragonite
- mega blastoise instead of squirtle
- geodude.
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#161 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/7/2013 3:32:58 AM | message detail
We obviously need to get Nidoran M in the next character contest to act as a base, and see if he outdoes Nidoran F. Does Pokemon Jug Factor exist?

Anyway, who gets second (or first!?) next round, Squirtle or Pikachu?
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#162 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/7/2013 3:33:26 AM | message detail
"Only" a 60% win on Sora. That's higher than Charizard was projected to get on Sora in 2010.

Granted, this is a weaker Sora than this, but this is also 24 hour Sora, so he should actually get to be at full strength for once.
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#163 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/7/2013 3:35:42 AM | message detail
Trend chart:

Time | Cloud | Squirtle | Leon | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 41.06% | 50.19% | 8.75% | 263 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 40.16% | 44.14% | 15.71% | 6106 | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 42.96% | 40.65% | 16.39% | 11219 | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 41.24% | 44.49% | 14.27% | 7083 | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 42.72% | 42.76% | 14.52% | 14257 | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 41.72% | 43.10% | 15.18% | 14279 | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 40.62% | 45.08% | 14.30% | 2777 | (22:00-24:00)

You may ask me why I continue to post trend charts when rallies have basically rendered trends meaningless.

When I find the answer to that, I will let you know.

X-Stats:

Squirtle – 50.00%
Cloud Strife – 49.43%
Dante – 41.69%
Zidane Tribal – 35.62%
Frog – 35.52%
Ridley – 32.51%
Ramza Beoulve – 32.07%
Lugia – 31.18%
Leon Kennedy – 26.10%
Prinny – 26.03%
Laharl – 24.96%
Viewtiful Joe – 24.04%
Gordon Freeman – 23.86%
Handsome Jack – 23.11%
Shadow the Hedgehog – 21.04%
Sly Cooper – 20.26%
Albert Wesker – 18.48%
JC Denton – 17.30%
Simon Belmont – 17.12%
Yu Narukami – 16.65%
Raz – 16.03%
Oliver – 15.04%
Senator Steven Armstrong – 13.37%
Kat – 11.01%
Francis York Morgan – 10.46%
Hades – 10.19%
Spring Breeze Dancin’ – 6.60%

Squirtle's prediction percentage was 2.33%
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#164 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/7/2013 3:36:47 AM | message detail | (edited)
What's Sora's chances of coming back in this match? He's stalling pretty well now, and he's supposed to be a day vote beast, right?

e: I guess the better question is, how many rallies does Pikachu have right now?
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#165 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/7/2013 3:38:05 AM | message detail
Sora's chances of coming back are pretty much nil.

Under normal circumstances, they'd be great since Kingdom Hearts's day vote is as good as there is.

But these aren't normal circumstances.
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#166 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/7/2013 3:39:41 AM | message detail
Pikachu doesn't have any rallies
He got a bad rally at the start that had like 5 comments and purged very fast
Anyone that says otherwise got a rallyphobia
#167 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/7/2013 3:40:51 AM | message detail
So Pikachu's doing this without rallies? He's still beating Sora despite that huge 20% anchor of Blue holding him back?
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#168 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 9/7/2013 3:40:51 AM | message detail
Leon Kennedy = Prinny may be the most hilarious xstat projection yet.
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#169 | paulg235 | Posted 9/7/2013 3:42:32 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Leon Kennedy – 26.10%
Prinny – 26.03%

I know what upset I'm taking next contest!
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#170 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/7/2013 3:44:25 AM | message detail
Well, Pikachu doesn't need a rally at the moment.

But if Sora starts threatening to take the lead, he'll get one.
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#171 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/7/2013 3:44:46 AM | message detail
paulg235 posted...
I know what upset I'm taking next contest!


I'm sure you've already started making a pic for it, too.
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#172 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 9/7/2013 3:55:28 AM | message detail | (edited)
Not_Wylvane posted...
So Pikachu's doing this without rallies? He's still beating Sora despite that huge 20% anchor of Blue holding him back?


I don't think Sora is really that strong to be honest.

Which really is another step towards LOL Groose.
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#173 | lightning-02 | Posted 9/7/2013 3:46:41 AM | message detail
Pikachu and Sora would be difficult to rally for, Blue is the rallyable character in this poll and he's out of contention. It should be a fair match barring poke shenanigans at the end, I don't see anything sustained happening.
#174 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/7/2013 3:47:33 AM | message detail
I don't know if Gordon or Leon got screwed more
#175 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/7/2013 3:50:08 AM | message detail
By the way, Pikachu has been ridiculously stable this match. The difference between his peak percentage and base percentage (not counting the board vote) is 1.15% so far.
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#176 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/7/2013 3:55:36 AM | message detail
Oh actually the /vp/ rally didn't purge
But it got like 30 comments and had 2 hours without a single comment...
And I doubt it gives Pikachu more votes than it gives Blue
#177 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 9/7/2013 3:56:31 AM | message detail
Actually, Viewtiful Joe would probably be the most embarrassing defeat for Gordon Freeman since Tina Armstrong.
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#178 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/7/2013 3:57:00 AM | message detail
So Bulbasaur for the next contest? A 1st generation starter, Ash had him in his party and he has a Mega form.
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#179 | iGenesis | Posted 9/7/2013 3:58:02 AM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
So Bulbasaur for the next contest? A 1st generation starter, Ash had him in his party and he has a Mega form.


I'd rather see a character that's representative of the pokemon franchise. Like Trubbish.
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#180 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/7/2013 3:59:19 AM | message detail
I don't even got an explantion for Leon getting LPF'd so bad
This is the worst case of LPF that isn't SFF or Link/Draven/Shepard
#181 | Jump_Man7 | Posted 9/7/2013 4:04:30 AM | message detail
iGenesis posted...
Safer_777 posted...
So Bulbasaur for the next contest? A 1st generation starter, Ash had him in his party and he has a Mega form.


I'd rather see a character that's representative of the pokemon franchise. Like Trubbish.


Durr hurr
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#182 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 9/7/2013 4:11:06 AM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
So Bulbasaur for the next contest? A 1st generation starter, Ash had him in his party and he has a Mega form.


Ivysaur's got the Brawl Pokemon Trainer rub, I would think.
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#183 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/7/2013 4:14:02 AM | message detail
Why not get both in?
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#184 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/7/2013 4:18:10 AM | message detail
Come on, even the biggest Pokemon fan wouldn't want to have the basic form and the evolved form.
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#185 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 9/7/2013 4:31:44 AM | message detail
I... am not actually surprised by this result. I picked it in the guru and my Expert bracket. Sora has just looked off, and Pokemon have been beating far stronger opponents (Mewtwo >> Sonic, who also trashed Bowser, who trashed Sora 2010), Squirtle > Cloud, who at least pulverised Leon. Mostly though, KH has not had a really solid performance for many a year. Even GOTD saw KHII get battered by TP in the day - nearly a 60-40ing. Sora was poor in 2010. He didn't do anything worth much in rounds one and two here - Sub-Zero nearly lost to The Boss, and he didn't put too much distance between himself and Scorpion.

The only reason I had to doubt Pikachu's ability to win this was Charizard needing heavy rallying to fend off Zelda, but I think that's largely because Zelda, as a series, is just that resilient to SFF. It's not for nothing that the few poor performances Pokemon has had in recent contests have came at Zelda's hands - Charizard/Zelda, Mewtwo/Ganondorf, GSC/MM. Even when RBY got knocked out in the 2008 Games Contest it required OoT's presence.
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#186 | Averia | Posted 9/7/2013 4:32:43 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...

Yu Narukami – 16.65%


And the main character is much weaker than Chie, who would have thought ?
#187 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/7/2013 4:33:17 AM | message detail
And now there's no Zelda to keep Pokemon in check and look what's happening!
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#188 | lightning-02 | Posted 9/7/2013 4:44:07 AM | message detail
This is really weak from Sora, not without precedent since he's looked that way all contest but seems KH3's announcement and the impending 1.5 hd release hasn't done him any favours. People just seem to be moving on from Kingdom Hearts.
#189 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/7/2013 5:19:34 AM | message detail
I am sure that when KH 3 comes out he will get a boost. As the FF characters too.
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#190 | Gooper Blooper | Posted 9/7/2013 5:26:01 AM | message detail
Ramza seventh strongest character in the division? I'm okay with this!
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#191 | Denzokuken | Posted 9/7/2013 5:26:25 AM | message detail
I'm not so sure, Safer. I think lightning might be closer to the truth - it's maybe not that people in general are moving on from Kingdom Hearts, more that GameFAQs is. Make no mistake, KH3 will be huge in the broader gaming world, but I don't think it will make that much difference on GameFAQs, where the voters are old, cynical, and weary of new Square and KH in particular. 2003 is a long time ago.
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#192 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/7/2013 5:30:14 AM | message detail
Well at least more people will know the FF characters and the KH characters at least. Still nothing will be as big as when KH 1 came out of course but still.
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#193 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/7/2013 5:51:13 AM | message detail
Also does anyone can say who will be in the final match?
Snake is a lock. Even if there is a huge rally for Squirtle, Pikachu will get around half the votes so Snake wins
But that is. I can't even predict the others. Yeah Draven beat Link but he was weaker than Round 2. If he is weaker again Mewtwo can do it.
As for the others... Yeah I have nothing.
So that is for me. What do you believe?
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#194 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 9/7/2013 5:58:40 AM | message detail
Lightning Strikes posted...
Yuri_LowelI posted...
Denzokuken posted...
Snake can't win because Smaus is pretty much guaranteed a place in the final, and Snake can't beat her.


Lol. Samus is weaker now. Snake is stronger. Last time they met Samus had an upper hand in.terms of prime 3 and Wii fad. Snake got boost but now he's legit. 2nd strongest on this site.


Wrong, Snake is even or a little weaker. He underperformed on Kefka, who otherwise looked consistent. Plus, why would Snake get stronger? It doesn't make any sense. And while Snake has looked good, it's not like he has had any performances that looked THAT good. Samus... Hard to say. Either way, based on Pikachu and Crono Snake would have had to have boosted quite a bit to surpass Mario (he hasn't). Seriously, one argument for Snake having boosted. Please. You have people acting like it's fact when there is no evidence.


People have generally been saying that MGS characters are doing well this contest. In hindsight however, you're right: there's no real indication of this. I think people just saw Snake's Round 2 blowout, where he did better than Link against a common opponent, and jumped to conclusions.

I think some or even most of us pre-contest expected MGS characters to boost from the MGSV announcement.
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#195 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 9/7/2013 6:08:02 AM | message detail
Wait, is Kefka really the bastion of consistency now?
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#196 | RockMFR | Posted 9/7/2013 6:10:02 AM | message detail
I was watching http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sAzzbrFgcUw again just now and thought - what if someone tried to rally at a major college football game? Like, via the scoreboard or pa system. That could put Draven's rally to shame.
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#197 | GloryChaos | Posted 9/7/2013 6:13:14 AM | message detail
Pokemon is invincible.

I mean, Blue is currently putting up a decent SFF fight. He has yet to simply roll over and die. He's doing better than Ness, Wolf, Magus, and Yuna in their respective SFF battles this contest.

And yet Pikachu doesn't give two *****. How is this happening? Is there yet another day long rally out there?!
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#198 | lightning-02 | Posted 9/7/2013 6:19:04 AM | message detail
Didn't check after the poll ended but nearly 19,000 views http://imgur.com/N3CmY9o
#199 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/7/2013 6:28:21 AM | message detail
Sora is going to need to do more than stall right now.
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#200 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 9/7/2013 6:33:20 AM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
Sora vs. Vincent who ya got?

XIII_rocks posted...
AxemRedRanger posted...
XIII_rocks posted...
Ok yeah this crossed the line
What did?

Genuinely curious!


Pikachu beating Sora with Blue in the poll. Sora *sucks*, but even as Pokemon defender #1 I can't get behind this
Oh.

Well, time to do some role reversal here, because I'm actually going to defend this a little.

I think a lot of this is on Sora just being awful now. Kingdom Hearts, Bowser, and Mortal Kombat all have a series of matches where they have looked okay against each other but when you consider how they did against outside competition it suggests they all suck relative to their peaks - Bowser having sucked since 2007, Kingdom Hearts since 2010, and Mortal Kombat since this contest. I thought this up during Sora/Gilgamesh and the results since have only made it look better. It's why I picked Pikachu here, although Squirtle's match being immediately prior helped.


I find it completely unbelievable that Mortal Kombat actually DROPPED since last contest, considering how the series' biggest game since the 90s and what's oft-considered the best game in the series period was released since last contest and got a ton of marketing and rereleases. I mean, I can understand that seeing how fighting games aren't really this site's cup of tea and how Mario characters did worse in 2008 than in 2007 despite the series' biggest game since the 90s getting released in that timeframe, but man.

Then again, perhaps that's just the problem: one big release for a series that has amounted to nothing for about a decade seems to never matter here. Super Mario Galaxy was pathetic in our games contests and literally the only good match it has ever had was it not getting SFF killed by Twilight Princess in Game of the Decade. The game has shown signs of boosting since then if you buy into the Game of the Generation poll (I think it did 10% better against Twilight Princess than it did in GOTD, and the TP/Brawl ratio stayed practically identical), but who knows? The Sonic franchise may have gotten itself back on track, but no one outside of Sonic fans really considers Colors or Generations to be anything other than "merely good" games, and Sonic's games have consistently dropped the ball in these contests to prove that not many actual fans of the character exist on this site. Similarly, GameFAQs has pretty much NEVER cared about non-SSB fighting games. Street Fighter IV ended up boosting pretty spectacularly between games contests thanks to Super Street Fighter IV, but thanks to GameFAQs not caring about 2012 games all of Mortal Kombat 2011's rereleases couldn't do jack squat to help the game or its series' popularity on this site.

Literally the only thing going against this is how Donkey Kong did very well in the first round of this contest, and since he got his biggest game since the 90s since last contest it made perfect sense for him to boost. Now though? Who knows.

I don't think it's really a Mortal Kombat drop so much as it is an across-the-board decline in strength for characters who depend on having "badass" character designs, and perhaps MK2011 helped to mitigate the fall for its characters. But who knows?
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