Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1160

#101 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/6/2013 11:47:31 PM | message detail
Once again providing evidence to my theory that everybody lurks the stats topic.

Literally. Everybody.
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#102 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/6/2013 11:49:15 PM | message detail
Greyfeld posted...
I'm having a difficult time getting a read on the next match. Putting 52% on Auron means that L-Block should beat Tifa (Assuming Auron = Tifa), but I don't know if having two strong characters in the match is going to make L-Block more or less likely to get rallied hard. And exactly how much of that 52% against Auron is joke strength, and how well is that going to hold up in the next match?
If it helps you any:

We're likely looking at a weaker Auron than usual. Auron and Roxas both had fairly smooth paths in 2010. Link > Cloud > Snake > Squall > Auron and Link > Cloud > Samus > Sub-Zero > Roxas. Based on the 2010 x-stats, Auron pretty much got what he was supposed to on Roxas.

...He got what the stats projected him to on a Kingdom Hearts character. In this year. Auron getting what he was supposed to on Roxas was not good! I don't think Auron looked especially good against his other opponents either.

L-block should certainly still at least beat Tifa, though. That thing was damned hard to get below 28% in four-ways and now we're in three-ways so it should get higher. Yet hold it down to only 28% despite what it did last round, give Tifa 40% on Samus (sounds high to me) and Tifa is only at 28.8%. It's almost mathematically impossible for Tifa to beat L-block there.

Whether L-block beats Samus too is a good question. lightning-2 says L-block will be impossible to rally against Samus and Tifa, "dual hentai material" as he put it. Believe that at your own peril, though!
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#103 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/6/2013 11:51:50 PM | message detail
Yeah I think people said it would be impossible to rally Pikachu over Blue either and um
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#104 | The Owner of FF9 | Posted 9/6/2013 11:53:17 PM | message detail
We-love-you!
Pi-ka-chu!
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#105 | Greyfeld | Posted 9/6/2013 11:55:44 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Yeah I think people said it would be impossible to rally Pikachu over Blue either and um


The people who said that are idiots. Or trolling. Or lack any understanding of how these contests work.
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#106 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 9/6/2013 11:57:42 PM | message detail
Unlike the previous matches, rallying for Pikachu is likely bringing results in line with GameFAQs' opinion rather than overriding it. Pikachu should normally be stronger than Sora. Pikachu would only be losing due to the handicap of Blue not because Sora is actually more popular. Rallying for Pikachu actually promotes the more popular character among GameFAQs voters.
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#107 | The Owner of FF9 | Posted 9/6/2013 11:58:28 PM | message detail
Seriously though Pokemon is such a monster. I mean, think of how bad Pikachu would be curb stomping Sora right now if it weren't for Blue. It would be ****ing filthy.

If anyone has anyone hope of beating Draven, it's a Pokemon. Seriously. Everyone's talking about Snake or Mega Man, and as much as I would love to see Mega Man in the finals, a pokemon would be able to overcome whatever measly, and most likely divided, rally the board could muster.
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Character Battle IX Bracket: 142/207
#108 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/6/2013 11:59:40 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Once again providing evidence to my theory that everybody lurks the stats topic.

Literally. Everybody.


You couldn't have 2007 L Block without lurkers
It wasn't just a hivemind,the bandwagon was formed because of comments here

Don't underestimate how many people lurk this board,Link/Draven was a good example
I counted at least 20 posts of "I usually just lurk here but I wanted to say that"
#109 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 9/7/2013 12:00:33 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Yeah I think people said it would be impossible to rally Pikachu over Blue either and um


Sora is losing largely due to his own lack of strength. Blue isn't really folding to Pikachu that much. In the rally topics there was some conflict over which Pokemon character to support. Sora goes on to lose anyways.
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#110 | RikkaTakanashi | Posted 9/7/2013 12:01:06 AM | message detail
If a pokemon is in the finals I might pick it in expert depending on where my placement is. If I feel I have to do it to prize I'll take the insane chance.
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Chrono1219
#111 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/7/2013 12:04:10 AM | message detail
The Owner of FF9 posted...
Seriously though Pokemon is such a monster. I mean, think of how bad Pikachu would be curb stomping Sora right now if it weren't for Blue. It would be ****ing filthy.

If anyone has anyone hope of beating Draven, it's a Pokemon. Seriously. Everyone's talking about Snake or Mega Man, and as much as I would love to see Mega Man in the finals, a pokemon would be able to overcome whatever measly, and most likely divided, rally the board could muster.


Im pushing for Mewtwo>Draven ever since the MMX match
No one took me seriously and they still don't
Mewtwo owning Vincent? Bad picture!!!
Mewtwo owning Sonic? Bowser anchor!!
Squirtle beating Cloud? 4chan rally!!

And then they cry about Pokemon being too atrong anyway
Mewtwo doesn't have to be as strong as Link,he will get empowered by anti Draven votes to the point he will be stronger than him
Just wait
#112 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/7/2013 12:09:18 AM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
I'm thinking SBAllen might not run the usual "Did you like the contest?" poll this year. Because he knows the results are going to be awful.


Whether or not we get that poll will depend on whether we get another bonus poll after the final match of the contest. We are already having a bonus poll during the 1 day break before the finals, but I think Board 8 will attempt to get another bonus poll set up after the final match. Grand Theft Auto V comes out on September 17th, so you would expect a "Got Grand Theft Auto V?" poll on that day if the final match is on September 15th and we get a "Did you like the contest?" poll on September 16th. But if we got a bonus poll on September 16th followed by a "Did you like the contest?" poll on September 17th, the bonus poll right after the final match will interfere with the "Got Grand Theft Auto V?" poll.
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#113 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 9/7/2013 12:13:31 AM | message detail
Man I haven't called jack else this contest but I finally got one... Oracle, bracket, and expert - I went all-in on Pikachu. New favorite character! Hope he at least trashes Squirtle next round.
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#114 | wedgeskywalker9 | Posted 9/7/2013 12:14:53 AM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
red sox 777 posted...
I'm thinking SBAllen might not run the usual "Did you like the contest?" poll this year. Because he knows the results are going to be awful.


Whether or not we get that poll will depend on whether we get another bonus poll after the final match of the contest. We are already having a bonus poll during the 1 day break before the finals, but I think Board 8 will attempt to get another bonus poll set up after the final match. Grand Theft Auto V comes out on September 17th, so you would expect a "Got Grand Theft Auto V?" poll on that day if the final match is on September 15th and we get a "Did you like the contest?" poll on September 16th. But if we got a bonus poll on September 16th followed by a "Did you like the contest?" poll on September 17th, the bonus poll right after the final match will interfere with the "Got Grand Theft Auto V?" poll.


I doubt Allen would be inclined to let Board 8 choose another bonus poll at this point anyway.
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#115 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/7/2013 12:15:53 AM | message detail
wedgeskywalker9 posted...
I doubt Allen would be inclined to let Board 8 choose another bonus poll at this point anyway.


is he still buttfurious about what happened
#116 | Masato_Tanaka | Posted 9/7/2013 12:57:17 AM | message detail
I'd really love an L-Block repeat win here, but I have a feeling Draven is still gonna end up taking the whole thing. Him or Snake.
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#117 | Denzokuken | Posted 9/7/2013 1:00:42 AM | message detail
lmfao Sora, he truly is pathetic. Now I'm interested to see who wins between Squirtle and Pikachu.
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#118 | Yuri_LowelI | Posted 9/7/2013 1:01:24 AM | message detail
***** l block. Seriously you people are just as bad as the draven drones. Lb lock won once and it was funny. Not anymore. If people vote for block over Samus/tifa I will try and get you banned from this site. Go back to crapchan and geddit.
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#119 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/7/2013 1:02:20 AM | message detail
Im not even sure if Sora is making a comeback or it's just going to stall like this for the whole night

So I head Sora day vote is amazing...just how amazing is it compared to Pokemon? can he really win this after all?
#120 | VitalVI | Posted 9/7/2013 1:03:54 AM | message detail
RIP Sora
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#121 | Yuri_LowelI | Posted 9/7/2013 1:07:05 AM | message detail
It doesn't need to be better than Pokemon. It just needs to be better than an slightly sff d. pikachu.

Also people overrated BLue hard. If this was Red in the poll pikachu might have come last. No one cares about blue. He barely best Fox FFS with wolf in the poll.

And I don't think the rallies for pikachu are all that strong. Blue is just weak.
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#122 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/7/2013 1:08:16 AM | message detail
Sora seems to be gaining a lot of percentage lately. I guess Pikachu was rallied hard enough that Sora has nowhere to go but up.
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#123 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/7/2013 1:12:14 AM | message detail
This match makes Crono look good
And it makes Mario looks even better

And it makes Vivi looks godly
So I don't know what it says about Red vs Vivi actually!
#124 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/7/2013 1:26:28 AM | message detail
So I woke up and I checked the results...
1)Cloud lost. Against Squirtle. Sure.
2)Sora loses. Against Pikachu. With Blue in there. Sure.
3)Bad thing that Snake will win because of Pokemon thing. If only Squirtle was there, he would lose for sure. He isn't that strong...
4)I would say something about Pokemon but I would be banned for ever so...
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#125 | iGenesis | Posted 9/7/2013 1:30:20 AM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...

3)Bad thing that Snake will win because of Pokemon thing


Good thing*
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#126 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/7/2013 1:35:19 AM | message detail
I'm surprised we are not in the "hahah this is amazing! let Pokemon win the whole thing!" era now

Instead we are in "ok this is making me sick now im going to vote for Draven" era

Hrm..ah..just think what it implies "i'm sick of what this site considers popular! now I have to stick with the character that everyone hates because he is not popular in this site but got stronger from outside influence! even though I hate outside influence! rallies are lame! but this site taste is lame too! so i'll stick with Draven because I have no idea what I really want!"
#127 | Denzokuken | Posted 9/7/2013 1:35:33 AM | message detail
Snake can't win because Smaus is pretty much guaranteed a place in the final, and Snake can't beat her.
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#128 | nintendogirl1 (Moderator) | Posted 9/7/2013 1:37:05 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Once again providing evidence to my theory that everybody lurks the stats topic.

Literally. Everybody.


This is proven every year by the number of people who are aware of the term "Noble Nine" despite never having posted on this board once. And the people who talk about "the stats".
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#129 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/7/2013 1:40:38 AM | message detail
Blue is falling in percentages like crazy,and Pikachu is rising instead
I think this is going to be the first case of "smart voters" if Link/Draven/Shepard doesn't count

I feel safe with my Mega Man pick
#130 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/7/2013 1:57:46 AM | message detail
So at this point, with these votals, I think we can probably agree FFVII > RBY looks untenable. FFVII might still be the stronger game in "natural strength" 1-on-1, but that clearly means little. We already saw the full rallied force of Pokemon RBY embodied into two characters beat FFVII's top two in a "fair" match in Rivalry Rumble. Pokemon beasting and FFVII doing abysmally clearly don't look like silly RR results anymore. And while it's difficult to directly compare, FFVII if anything looks even worse this contest.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4571

Link getting that number on Cloud nowadays sounds well within reach.

So just how bad could things get for FFVII in a games contest? Could it actually lose to something other than OoT and RBY? Game of the Decade stuff is probably still out of play or else we come uncomfortably close to FFX = FFVII indirectly and Metal Gear Solid probably doesn't have the juice. What about Link to the Past, Super Mario 64, Super Mario World, or Super Mario Bros. 3? Would anyone take the upset if FFVII vs. one of those came up a year or so from now, without rehabilitated votals?

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3503
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3506

I'd say that group was probably already hovering around ~40% on FFVII back in 2009. Even Mario 3 managing 45% sounds plausible now given what FFVII characters plummeting probably implies about the game's strength.

I love Link to the Past, but it beating FFVII would be a sad day for the site. Not sure if FFVII is at that point yet but I can't completely rule it out.
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#131 | paulg235 | Posted 9/7/2013 2:00:56 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Blue is falling in percentages like crazy,and Pikachu is rising instead
I think this is going to be the first case of "smart voters" if Link/Draven/Shepard doesn't count

I feel safe with my Mega Man pick

Except that this is clearly the strength of Pikachu shining through SFF and Sora being exposed as weak. Charizard's still got that match. Don;t trick yourself into believing otherwise.
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#132 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/7/2013 2:07:51 AM | message detail
If Pika beats Sora with Blue in the poll then what change does MM has with Zero in there? Even if he get's 7 out 10 votes that would go to Zero, Zard still wins. And since we will have a Mega Charizard picture... Yeah good luck about that.
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#133 | Denzokuken | Posted 9/7/2013 2:08:37 AM | message detail
Charizard is probably the weakest Pokemon left in the contest though, I think that match is the hardest to call of this round.
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Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over....
#134 | elitewarrior500 | Posted 9/7/2013 2:10:03 AM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
wedgeskywalker9 posted...
I doubt Allen would be inclined to let Board 8 choose another bonus poll at this point anyway.


is he still buttfurious about what happened


i think you mean he isbilly butthurt
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#135 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/7/2013 2:22:05 AM | message detail
uh oh
Sora is fighting hard! it's over,Sora has the high ground!
#136 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/7/2013 2:26:38 AM | message detail
So we reached that point in the contest where the only reason that SNAKE will reach the final match is because there are 2 Pokemon there?
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#137 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 9/7/2013 2:27:47 AM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
So we reached that point in the contest where the only reason that SNAKE will reach the final match is because there are 2 Pokemon there?


I don't even think Snake is guaranteed that spot.
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#138 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/7/2013 2:31:18 AM | message detail
If it was Cloud-Snake-Pikachu then Pikachu would advance. Now Snake has a 99% change to advance. I still can't believe that.
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#139 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 9/7/2013 2:32:31 AM | message detail
Well, water Pokemon are weak to electric attacks....
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#140 | Yuri_LowelI | Posted 9/7/2013 2:46:09 AM | message detail
How is bad that snake progresses??? Safer 777 literally has the worst opinions on this board. Terrible. Go back inside draven rear.
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#141 | Yuri_LowelI | Posted 9/7/2013 2:47:52 AM | message detail
Denzokuken posted...
Snake can't win because Smaus is pretty much guaranteed a place in the final, and Snake can't beat her.


Lol. Samus is weaker now. Snake is stronger. Last time they met Samus had an upper hand in.terms of prime 3 and Wii fad. Snake got boost but now he's legit. 2nd strongest on this site.
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#142 | AsurasKordoth | Posted 9/7/2013 2:49:57 AM | message detail
I blame SE. An entire generation without a console KH...
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#143 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/7/2013 2:50:36 AM | message detail
It isn't bad that Snake advances. It is bad HOW he will advance. Because of Pokemon split the votes. If the match was Cloud Snake Sora or even Cloud Snake Pikachu and he won I wouldn't had any problem. But now... it just seems strange.
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#144 | JustForFun1988 | Posted 9/7/2013 2:51:17 AM | message detail
This safer dude sounds like a f****** loser, blaming Link fanboys for the loss of Cloud, blaming Snake for taking advantage of that Pokemon LFF when he has absolutely no say in it.
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#145 | Yuri_LowelI | Posted 9/7/2013 2:54:34 AM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
If it was Cloud-Snake-Pikachu then Pikachu would advance. Now Snake has a 99% change to advance. I still can't believe that.


Tell that to crono and megaman and mario. I still can't believe you want a contest where Pokemon never meet. Seriously you've lost your head.
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#146 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/7/2013 2:55:49 AM | message detail
Does Sora has any change here by the way? Or that is for him?
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#147 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 9/7/2013 2:57:28 AM | message detail
Yuri_LowelI posted...
Denzokuken posted...
Snake can't win because Smaus is pretty much guaranteed a place in the final, and Snake can't beat her.


Lol. Samus is weaker now. Snake is stronger. Last time they met Samus had an upper hand in.terms of prime 3 and Wii fad. Snake got boost but now he's legit. 2nd strongest on this site.


Wrong, Snake is even or a little weaker. He underperformed on Kefka, who otherwise looked consistent. Plus, why would Snake get stronger? It doesn't make any sense. And while Snake has looked good, it's not like he has had any performances that looked THAT good. Samus... Hard to say. Either way, based on Pikachu and Crono Snake would have had to have boosted quite a bit to surpass Mario (he hasn't). Seriously, one argument for Snake having boosted. Please. You have people acting like it's fact when there is no evidence.
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#148 | ZinsanityCraze | Posted 9/7/2013 3:00:13 AM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
Does Sora has any change here by the way? Or that is for him?


When battling, Sora's outfit can change into other designs depending on the player's choices.
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#149 | AsurasKordoth | Posted 9/7/2013 3:01:24 AM | message detail
18 hours to come back from 400? Easily...
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#150 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 9/7/2013 3:02:01 AM | message detail
At least if Pikachu pulls it out, I can finally get an Expert Challenge match right.
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