Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1160

#1 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/6/2013 9:51:22 PM | message detail
Save us..........Draven?

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
---
2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2010, 2011
10 championships is not enough. ZeldaFAQs thirsts for more.
#2 | KamikazePotato | Posted 9/6/2013 9:51:54 PM | message detail
VIVI

VIVI
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#3 | xp1337 | Posted 9/6/2013 9:52:21 PM | message detail
No, Snake is now the contest's hero.

Followed by Samus and Sephiroth

it's a darker and edgier contest now
---
xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#4 | Walao_eh | Posted 9/6/2013 9:53:07 PM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
No, Snake is now the contest's hero.

Followed by Samus and Sephiroth

it's a darker and edgier contest now
#5 | KamikazePotato | Posted 9/6/2013 10:09:05 PM | message detail
I can't even find the rally on /v/. Am I looking at this site wrong or something?
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#6 | im317 | Posted 9/6/2013 10:10:35 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Now if only Draven losing was remotely plausible I could find myself getting excited!

It baffles me that Allen actually went on the record saying he doesn't think Draven's gonna win the contest.


maybe hes planing on removing stuffed votes in the finals. makes sense since rewarding people who do this with cash prizes for stuffing(or getting people to stuff) Draven would just be so wrong
---
"L-Block 2007 Character Battle Champion"Always remember
"L-Block, shaped like a boot to kick your ass"
#7 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/6/2013 10:10:37 PM | message detail
yes sniped the last post
#8 | pjbasis | Posted 9/6/2013 10:11:09 PM | message detail
truth: sephiroth winning his match was far more surprising than these pokemon "upsets"
---
http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#9 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/6/2013 10:11:58 PM | message detail
im317 posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Now if only Draven losing was remotely plausible I could find myself getting excited!

It baffles me that Allen actually went on the record saying he doesn't think Draven's gonna win the contest.


maybe hes planing on removing stuffed votes in the finals. makes sense since rewarding people who do this with cash prizes for stuffing(or getting people to stuff) Draven would just be so wrong


1. (to KH's original comment) make Allen put down a bet on that (inb4 he proceeds to remove 90% of Draven's votes)
2. no way in hell does Allen have the nerve to remove votes from his precious reddit buddies
#10 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 9/6/2013 10:12:15 PM | message detail
Though I'm loathe to say it, this bodes quite poorly for Pikachu coming out of the Power Hour. Sora has a terrible, awful, no good night vote. Cutting Pikachu in anything resembling the night vote is just plain bad.

I guess Pokémon's night vote royally sucks if Sora's terrible, awful, no good night vote can do damage then...
---
"Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
#11 | xp1337 | Posted 9/6/2013 10:12:49 PM | message detail
im317 posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Now if only Draven losing was remotely plausible I could find myself getting excited!

It baffles me that Allen actually went on the record saying he doesn't think Draven's gonna win the contest.


maybe hes planing on removing stuffed votes in the finals. makes sense since rewarding people who do this with cash prizes for stuffing(or getting people to stuff) Draven would just be so wrong

If you're operating off the premise that Draven is being stuffed this actually makes the least sense.

Why would Bacon ignore it for a few rounds and then all of a sudden take action? Because Draven has obviously affected both brackets and expert challenge along the way.
---
xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#12 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/6/2013 10:14:21 PM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
If you're operating off the premise that Draven is being stuffed this actually makes the least sense.

Why would Bacon ignore it for a few rounds and then all of a sudden take action? Because Draven has obviously affected both brackets and expert challenge along the way.


well, there's one tiny thing going for it:
at that point Allen has already gotten as much reddit traffic as he possibly can for the contest, so he might just say screw it
but yes, highly unlikely
#13 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/6/2013 10:14:27 PM | message detail
Maybe he'll be inclined to throw up roadblocks now that Link is out of the way (y'know, the primary objective).

Though I'm not really sure how much he could do to impede Draven at this stage.
---
Welcome to the League of Downtime.
#14 | Wanglicious | Posted 9/6/2013 10:14:33 PM | message detail
brett - use catalog. then just search for keywords until you find it. blazer is splitting the Pokemon vote on 4chan.
---
"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.
#15 | xp1337 | Posted 9/6/2013 10:15:58 PM | message detail
splitting the vote?

just as planned?
---
xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#16 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/6/2013 10:16:07 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Maybe he'll be inclined to throw up roadblocks now that Link is out of the way (y'know, the primary objective).

Though I'm not really sure how much he could do to impede Draven at this stage.


"90% of Draven's votes were stuffed, (Sephiroth or Mewtwo) advances"
easy, because Allen's always right, says LoL drones
#17 | Scarlettail | Posted 9/6/2013 10:16:23 PM | message detail
Blue isn't even doing well at all to be hurting Pikachu much. Sora is rising up gradually.
#18 | Wanglicious | Posted 9/6/2013 10:17:41 PM | message detail
(and by keywords i mean the usual stuff, 'pokemon,' 'pikachu,' 'gary,' etc. basically use your internet skillz.)


the pokemon topic is also internally split, as expected. this is basically Pikachu's problem for the match really, the guys who won't fall in line. there's gonna be a lot of those.
---
"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.
#19 | xp1337 | Posted 9/6/2013 10:18:01 PM | message detail
The thing is. Let's assume Draven has been stuffed the whole way. If Bacon acts against him now in any large way... how does that not seriously call into question Draven's entire run? Well, you know, more than it already has been.

I just don't see how that could possibly turn out well.
---
xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#20 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/6/2013 10:18:09 PM | message detail
Wanglicious posted...
(and by keywords i mean the usual stuff, 'pokemon,' 'pikachu,' 'gary,' etc. basically use your internet skillz.)


the pokemon topic is also internally split, as expected. this is basically Pikachu's problem for the match really, the guys who won't fall in line. there's gonna be a lot of those.


you sure they aren't playing the long game for Squirtle ;)
#21 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/6/2013 10:18:58 PM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
The thing is. Let's assume Draven has been stuffed the whole way. If Bacon acts against him now in any large way... how does that not seriously call into question Draven's entire run? Well, you know, more than it already has been.

I just don't see how that could possibly turn out well.


>SBAllen
>legitimacy

pick one
#22 | Wanglicious | Posted 9/6/2013 10:19:18 PM | message detail
some guys in there said they're playing the long game for Snake. <_<
---
"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.
#23 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/6/2013 10:20:27 PM | message detail
Sora's gotten a few cuts in, but getting some cuts does not mean you are making up ground. We'll see if he can do any real damage to the lead.
---
2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2010, 2011
10 championships is not enough. ZeldaFAQs thirsts for more.
#24 | swirIdude | Posted 9/6/2013 10:22:46 PM | message detail
Sora's gotten a few cuts in, but getting some cuts does not mean you are making up ground

Wait...what?
---
"The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima
SuperNiceDog: Bracket: Good, Taste: Bad
#25 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 9/6/2013 10:26:00 PM | message detail
Haha. These updates feel like Cloud/Squirtle all over again.
---
Hey, its that SuperNiceDog! Congrats to the Guru 2011 winner
#26 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/6/2013 10:26:01 PM | message detail
He means making up significant ground.

Because the option in the lead can do what, well, Pikachu just did there.
---
Welcome to the League of Downtime.
#27 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/6/2013 10:26:36 PM | message detail
BK_Sheikah00 posted...
Haha. These updates feel like Cloud/Squirtle all over again.


Pokemon is getting fiercely rallied again, so it is to be expected to a degree.
---
Welcome to the League of Downtime.
#28 | Greyfeld | Posted 9/6/2013 10:31:46 PM | message detail
And now that the rallies are kicking in, I'm kicking myself for not switching over to Pikachu>Sora like I was considering a half hour before the match.
---
PSN - Aevio
"I'm on a Goomba." - BlackMageJawa
#29 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/6/2013 10:32:46 PM | message detail
I've lost expert points overall this round >_>
#30 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/6/2013 10:33:23 PM | message detail
I see an amusing amount of Sora rallies too. More than I recall for others things Pokemon has faced.

Something about this does not strike me as a coincidence.

Two of them are even by a known pokemon rallier.

I'M HIDING IN THE BUSHES OUTSIDE YOUR HOUSE, GREYFELD.
---
[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
#31 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/6/2013 10:35:08 PM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
I see an amusing amount of Sora rallies too. More than I recall for others things Pokemon has faced.

Something about this does not strike me as a coincidence.

Two of them are even by a known pokemon rallier.

I'M HIDING IN THE BUSHES OUTSIDE YOUR HOUSE, GREYFELD.


superior Poketactics strike again
#32 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/6/2013 10:39:34 PM | message detail
I'm rallying for Pikachu by telling people that the site admin rigged the poll for him to lose and that he's a plucky underdog.

got 5 people so far
---
Die young and save yourself.
Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work.
#33 | Greyfeld | Posted 9/6/2013 10:43:08 PM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
I see an amusing amount of Sora rallies too. More than I recall for others things Pokemon has faced.

Something about this does not strike me as a coincidence.

Two of them are even by a known pokemon rallier.

I'M HIDING IN THE BUSHES OUTSIDE YOUR HOUSE, GREYFELD.


It doesn't do any good if you tell me! You're supposed to be QUIET.

Also, the rallies for Sora aren't doing jack-all. There's all of 1 upvote and 1 comment between the two threads.
---
PSN - Aevio
"I'm on a Goomba." - BlackMageJawa
#34 | pjbasis | Posted 9/6/2013 10:45:55 PM | message detail
Draven rallies ruin all of 5 matches at most

Pokemon rallies ruin everything
---
http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#35 | Qwaar | Posted 9/6/2013 10:46:06 PM | message detail
Nice boost there.
---
XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak
#36 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/6/2013 10:46:41 PM | message detail
pjbasis posted...
Draven rallies ruin all of 5 matches at most

Pokemon rallies ruin everything


you say that now, wait until 10 popular LoL champions dominate CBX
#37 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/6/2013 10:47:09 PM | message detail
But SBAllen TOLD us to rally our own personal armies. Are you implying that's not an optimal state of affairs?
---
Welcome to the League of Downtime.
#38 | Greyfeld | Posted 9/6/2013 10:49:00 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
But SBAllen TOLD us to rally our own personal armies. Are you implying that's not an optimal state of affairs?


I generally don't get mixed up with all the butthurt surrounding Allen's decisions, but I really really wish he'd never uttered that response.
---
PSN - Aevio
"I'm on a Goomba." - BlackMageJawa
#39 | XIII_rocks | Posted 9/6/2013 10:49:06 PM | message detail
Ok yeah this crossed the line
---
XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism.
#40 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/6/2013 10:49:28 PM | message detail
I'm thinking SBAllen might not run the usual "Did you like the contest?" poll this year. Because he knows the results are going to be awful.
---
2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2010, 2011
10 championships is not enough. ZeldaFAQs thirsts for more.
#41 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/6/2013 10:50:23 PM | message detail
After the next contest gives us a final 16 of 8 LoL champions and 8 Pokemon, people will be clamoring for the days of Link and Cloud domination!
---
2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2010, 2011
10 championships is not enough. ZeldaFAQs thirsts for more.
#42 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/6/2013 10:51:26 PM | message detail
XIII_rocks posted...
Ok yeah this crossed the line
What did?

Genuinely curious!
---
[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
#43 | Greyfeld | Posted 9/6/2013 10:51:50 PM | message detail
So, from now on, any time I have a feeling in my gut about a match, I'm just going to listen to it. This is like the fourth time this contest that I've ignored that feeling and gotten screwed for it.
---
PSN - Aevio
"I'm on a Goomba." - BlackMageJawa
#44 | pjbasis | Posted 9/6/2013 10:51:51 PM | message detail
At least the Noble Nine were from 8 different games/series!
---
http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#45 | pjbasis | Posted 9/6/2013 10:53:20 PM | message detail
Also I noticed Snake's match has like ten thousand less votes

Because no rallying at all?
---
http://i498.photobucket.com/albums/rr345/Rakaputra/B8%20Girls%202012/pjbas.png
SuperNiceDog - 1, pjbasis - 0
#46 | RikkaTakanashi | Posted 9/6/2013 10:53:55 PM | message detail
If Pikachu wins i'm going backward in expert...

F***
---
Chrono1219
#47 | Rad_Dudesman | Posted 9/6/2013 10:54:01 PM | message detail
Pikachu laughs in the face of SFF
---
The official rad dude of the Pokemon X board.
Blaze the Cat is cool. People who agree: 1
#48 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/6/2013 10:54:06 PM | message detail
pjbasis posted...
Also I noticed Snake's match has like ten thousand less votes

Because no rallying at all?


welcome to natural votal levels
told you guys it took another dip after Rivalry Rumble
#49 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/6/2013 10:54:38 PM | message detail
pjbasis posted...
Also I noticed Snake's match has like ten thousand less votes

Because no rallying at all?


Yep. Those votals are about as much GameFAQs's actual users care about the battles right now.

Everything else is outside rallying p much.
---
Welcome to the League of Downtime.
#50 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/6/2013 10:54:56 PM | message detail
Yup. 9000 rallied votes. Figure it splits about 7000 for Squirtle and 2000 for Cloud.
---
2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2010, 2011
10 championships is not enough. ZeldaFAQs thirsts for more.