Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1159

#51 | KamikazePotato | Posted 9/6/2013 6:47:05 PM | message detail
Today's votals are insane.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#52 | TheRock1525 | Posted 9/6/2013 6:47:28 PM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
So Cloud could've won this if anyone here actually bothered rallying for him.

So you've no right to complain about Squirtle > Cloud if you're so damn apathetic you won't even bother rallying for him!


Where exactly would you go to rally him?
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#53 | xp1337 | Posted 9/6/2013 6:47:56 PM | message detail
TheRock1525 posted...
Not_Wylvane posted...
So Cloud could've won this if anyone here actually bothered rallying for him.

So you've no right to complain about Squirtle > Cloud if you're so damn apathetic you won't even bother rallying for him!


Where exactly would you go to rally him?

GameFAQs
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#54 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/6/2013 6:48:31 PM | message detail
Cloud must be capable of a rally. FFVII sold more copies than OOT, the fanbase is out there somewhere.
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#55 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/6/2013 6:48:33 PM | message detail
Where you'd go to rally anything else. Reddit, Twitter, pretty much any place where you'd expect Cloud to do better than Squirtle. Pro-Sony forums would be a great start!
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#56 | StealThisSheen | Posted 9/6/2013 6:50:05 PM | message detail
Twitter and probably even Reddit would definitely just cause more Squirtle votes.
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#57 | GloryChaos | Posted 9/6/2013 6:50:07 PM | message detail
Mascot SFF. Pikachu and Sora SFF each other into the ground as Blue goes on to win.

TheRock1525 posted...
Not_Wylvane posted...
So Cloud could've won this if anyone here actually bothered rallying for him.

So you've no right to complain about Squirtle > Cloud if you're so damn apathetic you won't even bother rallying for him!


Where exactly would you go to rally him?


Register to a Final Fantasy or RPG forum, I guess. You guys have me convinced that rallying for Final Fantasy characters on /v/ will consistently backfire.
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#58 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/6/2013 6:51:11 PM | message detail
Wanglicious posted...
at this point his rallies are bandwagons and people are willingly choosing to pick him over Cloud.


You have said this all match. It is not true. It is empirically not true. We performed an experiment, in the middle of the match, and the data was striking. Squirtle did not win a single update when his rallies were taken down.

Even right now, there is a 4chan reddit rally with nearly 11,000 click-throughs (http://imgur.com/N3CmY9o), a persistent /v/ rally that has been bumped and remade all day, and numerous /b/ and /vp/ threads that have been made along the way. Compared to those, the bandwagon effect hasn't budged since the beginning of the match. It's rallies. Just rallies.
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#59 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/6/2013 6:51:29 PM | message detail
StealThisSheen posted...
Twitter and probably even Reddit would definitely just cause more Squirtle votes.


Depends on where you rally. You just have to find the right avenue to rally.

For example, Sony Gaming's official Twitter could've been a great source to get Cloud votes all day! Really, anything that's big on Sony would be big on Cloud, as hardcore Sony gamers would be very unlikely to vote for a f***ing Pokemon.
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#60 | Wanglicious | Posted 9/6/2013 6:51:32 PM | message detail
an RPG forum?
oh those places which love Pokemon too?
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#61 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/6/2013 6:51:58 PM | message detail
Twitter and reddit would probably work. The thing is if you include Cloud's name in the topic and not Squirtle, your votes are going to disproportionately favor Cloud, even if Squirtle would win a poll on the rallied site. That might not work for a place like /v/, but for more casual places it'll work.
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#62 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/6/2013 6:52:51 PM | message detail
#63 | StealThisSheen | Posted 9/6/2013 6:53:12 PM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
StealThisSheen posted...
Twitter and probably even Reddit would definitely just cause more Squirtle votes.


Depends on where you rally. You just have to find the right avenue to rally.

For example, Sony Gaming's official Twitter could've been a great source to get Cloud votes all day! Really, anything that's big on Sony would be big on Cloud, as hardcore Sony gamers would be very unlikely to vote for a f***ing Pokemon.


Yeah, because Sony is going to retweet a rally for a character that isn't relevant to them anymore and a contest that was never relevant to them to begin with.
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#64 | HollyBelle | Posted 9/6/2013 6:54:19 PM | message detail
#65 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/6/2013 6:54:22 PM | message detail
StealThisSheen posted...
Yeah, because Sony is going to retweet a rally for a character that isn't relevant to them anymore and a contest that was never relevant to them to begin with.


I doubt anyone expected Valve to publicly rally for Gordon Freeman on the Gamespot contest either! It's always worth a shot (though it's probably too late now).

I mean, we got a f***ing pro wrestler to rally for Link.
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#66 | StealThisSheen | Posted 9/6/2013 6:54:27 PM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
Twitter and reddit would probably work. The thing is if you include Cloud's name in the topic and not Squirtle, your votes are going to disproportionately favor Cloud, even if Squirtle would win a poll on the rallied site. That might not work for a place like /v/, but for more casual places it'll work.


Nah. More casual places are going to see Squirtle and "OH MY GOD IT'S SQUIRTLE" because more casual places don't care that much.
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#67 | StealThisSheen | Posted 9/6/2013 6:55:03 PM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
StealThisSheen posted...
Yeah, because Sony is going to retweet a rally for a character that isn't relevant to them anymore and a contest that was never relevant to them to begin with.


I doubt anyone expected Valve to publicly rally for Gordon Freeman on the Gamespot contest either! It's always worth a shot (though it's probably too late now).

I mean, we got a f***ing pro wrestler to rally for Link.


Only because one of our own was an actual personal friend of his!
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#68 | Wanglicious | Posted 9/6/2013 6:55:04 PM | message detail
you performed that experiment early in the match. when the result was the rallies got him 20 more votes per update. at that point yes, it was rallies.

but as the match progressed there were moments where was no rally was up that we're aware of where Squirtle was winning updates. when they came back, Squirtle got another 150~ votes, suggesting that this was the case after all. this is what we've empirically seen.
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"Maybe it's a tentacle, molesting the planet itself. - Aschen Brodel.
#69 | xp1337 | Posted 9/6/2013 6:55:28 PM | message detail
Counter-rallying just exacerbating the problem!

time to let cloud lose in peace everyone
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#70 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/6/2013 6:55:36 PM | message detail
Here's the thing. Worst case scenario, Squirtle gets more votes. Does that actually change anything anyway, since Squirtle's going to win without the rally?

There's literally no harm in trying at this point.
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#71 | TheRock1525 | Posted 9/6/2013 6:55:39 PM | message detail
It also doesn't help that I don't know how to tweet right.
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"You have issues." - MWC. Pot. Kettle.
#72 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/6/2013 6:56:03 PM | message detail
The point is they won't see it's Squirtle, because they won't click on the link unless they are a Cloud fan, because Cloud is the only name you put in the topic.
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2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2010, 2011
10 championships is not enough. ZeldaFAQs thirsts for more.
#73 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/6/2013 6:57:50 PM | message detail | (edited)
Wanglicious posted...
you performed that experiment early in the match. when the result was the rallies got him 20 more votes per update. at that point yes, it was rallies.

but as the match progressed there were moments where was no rally was up that we're aware of where Squirtle was winning updates. when they came back, Squirtle got another 150~ votes, suggesting that this was the case after all. this is what we've empirically seen.


No, you are incorrect. There has not been a time since then where Squirtle has not a had a rally up. There was one period of time where was thought to be the case, but lightning-02 admitted his mistake - he never took down the reddit rally.

You know, the one with nearly 11,000 click-throughs.
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#74 | Jump_Man7 | Posted 9/6/2013 6:57:26 PM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
This is what a Final Fantasy VII rally looks like:

http://www.finalfantasyforums.net/threads/58767-Cloud-could-use-some-votes?p=1074070#post1074070
http://www.finalfantasyforums.net/threads/58768-Right-now-on-Gamefaqs-Cloud-is-fighting

BRILLIANT SUCCESS


Xfd even clouds lame anime fanbase hates him
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#75 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 9/6/2013 6:57:48 PM | message detail
Is any of the Advent Children VAs relevant?
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#76 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/6/2013 6:57:51 PM | message detail
Also, keep in mind that Cloud only needs to get ~400 votes more than Squirtle to get the lead. That's very, very feasible even in two hours. And again, there's no harm in trying since Squirtle's going to win at this rate anyway.
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#77 | StealThisSheen | Posted 9/6/2013 6:58:39 PM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
The point is they won't see it's Squirtle, because they won't click on the link unless they are a Cloud fan, because Cloud is the only name you put in the topic.


By that logic, no rally would ever cause misfire.

But they do. How much just depends on where you do it.
---
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#78 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/6/2013 6:58:53 PM | message detail
And the VA's are a brilliant idea. Some of them have a big following, and if any of them were involved in AC, that could help Cloud a good bit.
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#79 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/6/2013 6:59:00 PM | message detail
We are on track for the whole poll to outdo Draven's R3 vote total today.
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2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2010, 2011
10 championships is not enough. ZeldaFAQs thirsts for more.
#80 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 9/6/2013 6:59:39 PM | message detail
HollyBelle posted...
LoL Cloud reddit rally. Let's test it out.

http://www.reddit.com/r/leagueoflegends/comments/1lw3ro/who_will_draven_face_in_the_finals/


SBDowntime.

Nice.
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#81 | xp1337 | Posted 9/6/2013 7:01:13 PM | message detail
StealThisSheen posted...
red sox 777 posted...
The point is they won't see it's Squirtle, because they won't click on the link unless they are a Cloud fan, because Cloud is the only name you put in the topic.


By that logic, no rally would ever cause misfire.

But they do. How much just depends on where you do it.

I think red sox is right insofar as it's to Cloud's advantage to only have his name rather than include Squirtle. If you put it up in the middle of heavily pro-Pokemon place it'd still backfire! Just less so than if you had included Squirtle!
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#82 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 9/6/2013 7:01:37 PM | message detail
I forgot Vincent was voiced by Steve Blum. He's popular right?
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#83 | gearofages | Posted 9/6/2013 7:01:42 PM | message detail
Rally at your own risk. Leon has a nest of votes on the internet somewhere. Kick it and see what happens!
#84 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/6/2013 7:02:10 PM | message detail
By that logic, no rally would ever cause misfire.

But they do. How much just depends on where you do it.


Almost no rally ever misfires. The worst that happens is they do nothing. Even our classic examples of rallies supposedly misfiring, Kerrigan/Vincent and SMB/Warcraft, there's little evidence that those rallies actually gave more votes to the other side- just some vocal comments. And even if those comments are reflective of people voting from the rally, those were 80/20 matches.

With Cloud, you're not going to actually hurt him unless you go rally on a Nintendo fansite, or a Pokemon fansite, or something like that. Or perhaps 4chan.
---
2002, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2006, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2010, 2011
10 championships is not enough. ZeldaFAQs thirsts for more.
#85 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/6/2013 7:02:19 PM | message detail
Leon could always get rallied 14k votes in the next two hours, too! Let's not count him out yet!
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#86 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/6/2013 7:03:17 PM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
With Cloud, you're not going to actually hurt him unless you go rally on a Nintendo fansite, or a Pokemon fansite, or something like that. Or perhaps 4chan.


And again, even if you hurt him, so what? He's already losing!

It's worth the risk at this point!
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#87 | Wanglicious | Posted 9/6/2013 7:03:42 PM | message detail
huh. must've missed that post, i thought it got modded along the way. if the same thread's been seen all along, i stand corrected then! though i'd honestly be surprised if the votes coming in from the rallies were the same 12 hours later.
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#88 | Scarlettail | Posted 9/6/2013 7:04:05 PM | message detail
2 hours to go.
#89 | StealThisSheen | Posted 9/6/2013 7:04:19 PM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
StealThisSheen posted...
red sox 777 posted...
The point is they won't see it's Squirtle, because they won't click on the link unless they are a Cloud fan, because Cloud is the only name you put in the topic.


By that logic, no rally would ever cause misfire.

But they do. How much just depends on where you do it.

I think red sox is right insofar as it's to Cloud's advantage to only have his name rather than include Squirtle. If you put it up in the middle of heavily pro-Pokemon place it'd still backfire! Just less so than if you had included Squirtle!


Well, I'm not denying that it'd be to Cloud's advantage to only have his name. That much is pretty obvious.

I'm saying that at a casual place like Twitter where most people that click are only going to be casual fans as it is, they're not gonna be as ingrained with "MUST VOTE CLOUD AND ONLY CLOUD." So if you rally a place like Twitter, you have to be prepared for a lot of them to go "Hey, wait... Squirtle? SQUIRTLE!"

Basically, places like Twitter aren't gonna get you many diehard fans. Only people that are just sorta interested. And those "sorta interesteds" could easily decide to vote somebody else once they see the poll. Especially a much more casual beloved character.
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#90 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/6/2013 7:07:54 PM | message detail | (edited)
The r/4chan thread is very low maintenance. It has 108 net upvotes, is smack dab in the middle of the Hot tab, and it's an active subreddit (1132 people online as of this post). I haven't been tracking the click-throughs on the image by the hour, to my discredit, but they were certainly going up significantly during that time period where the rest of the rallies were down.

I mean, we can test this again if lightning-02 shows up and does us a statistical favor by taking down all the rallies including that one to replicate our first experiment. <_<
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#91 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/6/2013 7:09:11 PM | message detail
StealThisSheen posted...
Well, I'm not denying that it'd be to Cloud's advantage to only have his name. That much is pretty obvious.

I'm saying that at a casual place like Twitter where most people that click are only going to be casual fans as it is, they're not gonna be as ingrained with "MUST VOTE CLOUD AND ONLY CLOUD." So if you rally a place like Twitter, you have to be prepared for a lot of them to go "Hey, wait... Squirtle? SQUIRTLE!"

Basically, places like Twitter aren't gonna get you many diehard fans. Only people that are just sorta interested. And those "sorta interesteds" could easily decide to vote somebody else once they see the poll. Especially a much more casual beloved character.


Or they can vote for the character the person is saying they should vote for, especially if those followers like the person well enough to bother voting in the first place!

Don't underestimate the power that a mere "Vote for Cloud Strife!" could have from someone with a lot of followers. You think people are going to vote more for Squirtle if Ashton Kutcher asked his followers to vote for Cloud?
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#92 | StealThisSheen | Posted 9/6/2013 7:11:33 PM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
StealThisSheen posted...
Well, I'm not denying that it'd be to Cloud's advantage to only have his name. That much is pretty obvious.

I'm saying that at a casual place like Twitter where most people that click are only going to be casual fans as it is, they're not gonna be as ingrained with "MUST VOTE CLOUD AND ONLY CLOUD." So if you rally a place like Twitter, you have to be prepared for a lot of them to go "Hey, wait... Squirtle? SQUIRTLE!"

Basically, places like Twitter aren't gonna get you many diehard fans. Only people that are just sorta interested. And those "sorta interesteds" could easily decide to vote somebody else once they see the poll. Especially a much more casual beloved character.


Or they can vote for the character the person is saying they should vote for, especially if those followers like the person well enough to bother voting in the first place!

Don't underestimate the power that a mere "Vote for Cloud Strife!" could have from someone with a lot of followers. You think people are going to vote more for Squirtle if Ashton Kutcher asked his followers to vote for Cloud?


But you're never gonna get an Ashton Kutcher! You're gonna get somebody more lowly. And then what happens if people see Squirtle and start rallying for him to other people and that picks up steam?

Let's face it, guys.

Cloud is not Twitter popular.

He hasn't retweeted in years.
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#93 | swordz9 | Posted 9/6/2013 7:12:15 PM | message detail
So Squirtle seems to be going up again I think.
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#94 | CaptainStemol | Posted 9/6/2013 7:12:18 PM | message detail
After a very long day, it just warms my heart to see Squirtle winning. Getting home after more than 12 hours away, I always hesitate to check the contest totals. For once, I can enjoy. This has been one of the most bittersweet contests for me, and today I needed the sweet. Thanks, everyone who voted Squirtle!
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#95 | TheRock1525 | Posted 9/6/2013 7:13:20 PM | message detail
I go around trying to rally other people and Squirtle's lead goes up.

See what happens, N_W?
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#96 | Regaro_Ukiera | Posted 9/6/2013 7:14:10 PM | message detail
somebody more popular than me go make a topic reminding people that the contents of the noble nine haven't changed, just the meaning of the term
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#97 | tennisboy213 | Posted 9/6/2013 7:14:33 PM | message detail
Biggest lead of the match
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#98 | LinkFTMFW | Posted 9/6/2013 7:16:39 PM | message detail
very impressed with the strength of pokemon characters in this years contest.
#99 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/6/2013 7:17:05 PM | message detail
And it's that sort of defeatist attitude that lets Squirtle beat Cloud!

You think lightning-02 thought, "Gee, Cloud is in a whole other league than Squirtle! There's no way a Pokemon could ever beat the site's #2 character! I think I'll just give up and whine on GameFAQs about how Squirtle will never beat Cloud?"

F*** no. Instead, he f***ing rallied Squirtle so god damn hard that we're now seeing Cloud F***ing Strife losing to a Pokemon. And maybe if you guys tried to rally while thinking positive thoughts, maybe you alone can be responsible for Cloud's victory over Squirtle!

As Bacon said, anybody can be rallied to win! If we can have a contest where Guybrush Threepwood can beat a character, we can witness Cloud get a last-minute rally to comeback against a Pokemon!
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#100 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/6/2013 7:18:03 PM | message detail
Guys, I know we can do it. We've done 400 vote last hour rallies for Frog before. This is within range.
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10 championships is not enough. ZeldaFAQs thirsts for more.