Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1158

#151 | The Mana Sword | Posted 9/6/2013 12:43:09 PM | message detail
TheRock1525 posted...
so cloud gets it under 200, and the next update the lead jumps back to 219.

Anyone got voting trends for this match?


trends: when cloud gets the lead under 200, squirtle jumps back up
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#152 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/6/2013 12:44:13 PM | message detail
I have a 10x10 chart of a hundred different reasons to vote. Every day, I use a RNG from 1-100 to determine what reason I'll be using to vote on that given day. Maybe it decided I'll vote the top option, or maybe the character I like best, or the character with the longest name, or the character with the worst hair. It doesn't matter, I go with what the RNG tells me to vote, and it has never steered me wrong because my vote never matters anyway.
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#153 | swordz9 | Posted 9/6/2013 12:44:36 PM | message detail
It's Catherine/Neku all over again, but without sex puns.
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#154 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/6/2013 12:44:39 PM | message detail
Damnit Romero.

You can do this but you couldn't push Kefka to second place!?

Oh well. As long as you stop Wes Draven, I'm cool with you.
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#155 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/6/2013 12:46:19 PM | message detail
Here's an idea for future contests. Every hour, the site's RNG will randomly pick an entrant to be replaced with Link for the next hour.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#156 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/6/2013 12:48:31 PM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
Here's an idea for future contests. Every hour, the site's RNG will randomly pick an entrant to be replaced with Link for the next hour.


How would that work in Link's matches
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#157 | mikisho | Posted 9/6/2013 12:48:32 PM | message detail
Best idea ever.
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#158 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/6/2013 12:48:54 PM | message detail
Does it apply to matches Link is already in?

Because if Draven averaged eight hours of Link votes while actual Link split his votes for an average of sixteen hours between Draven and Shepard, Draven would've crushed Link much harder, like so hard that the downtime wouldn't have affected anything.
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#159 | ZeldaTPLink | Posted 9/6/2013 12:49:43 PM | message detail
Even better: make them be replaced by either Link or Chester, at random.
#160 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/6/2013 12:51:02 PM | message detail
Or just make every match Link vs Chester, and every hour switch their positions (but not their votes).
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#161 | Greyfeld | Posted 9/6/2013 12:51:04 PM | message detail
-hotdogturtle-- posted...
From: 1337gamerpr0 | #110
I doubt this helps, I bet actual site traffic has also fallen off a cliff

SBAllen has said that FAQs and board traffic has been climbing for years, but homepage traffic is the only thing that's dropping.


That's what happens when there's no incentive to go to the front page to begin with. Unlike Gamespot, GameFAQs doesn't have any news articles to sift through on the front page.
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#162 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/6/2013 12:51:09 PM | message detail
In matches with Link, all votes for "Link" go to Link. After all, if people really wanted to vote for the other character, they could come back at a different hour when they are able to vote for him.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#163 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/6/2013 12:52:03 PM | message detail
Link switches with Cloud in the dead zone
*whoops*
#164 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/6/2013 12:52:35 PM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
In matches with Link, all votes for "Link" go to Link. After all, if people really wanted to vote for the other character, they could come back at a different hour when they are able to vote for him.


That's probably the sickest subtle burn I've seen all contest.
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Welcome to the League of Downtime.
#165 | The Mana Sword | Posted 9/6/2013 12:52:39 PM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
In matches with Link, all votes for "Link" go to Link. After all, if people really wanted to vote for the other character, they could come back at a different hour when they are able to vote for him.


make it happen bacon
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#166 | HaRRicH | Posted 9/6/2013 12:55:24 PM | message detail
MegatokyoEd posted...
Link is the only thing off limit for Pokemon.

We've seen Pokemon disappoint multiple times against Zelda. Mewtwo struggling with Midna, Mewtwo easily losing to Ganondorf, Charizard needing massive rallies to beat Zelda.


Perfect time to bring this up:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5235
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3259

If Pokemon gives up any ground to LoZ, we could see Epona > Pikachu. Believe.
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#167 | mikisho | Posted 9/6/2013 12:55:48 PM | message detail
So, what are the chances of KHF having any effect on Draven/Mewtwo/Sephiroth? I mean, KH 1.5 does come out the day before.
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Big or small, I don't like Rabbits. They always look like they're about to say something, but they never do.
PSN:Shimotto
#168 | G0EMONIMPACT | Posted 9/6/2013 12:57:13 PM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
In matches with Link, all votes for "Link" go to Link. After all, if people really wanted to vote for the other character, they could come back at a different hour when they are able to vote for him.


http://mrwgifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Denzel-Washington-Boom-Gif.gif
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KoolAidShoto pls
#169 | Greyfeld | Posted 9/6/2013 1:01:19 PM | message detail
Well, there's eight hours left, and I've pretty much given up on Cloud coming back. Unless somebody gives up on rallying, Squirtle is going to stick around 200+ for the rest of the match.
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PSN - Aevio
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#170 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/6/2013 1:05:48 PM | message detail
Just one more piece of evidence that Squall is the strongest FF character now.
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#171 | LOLContests | Posted 9/6/2013 1:07:21 PM | message detail
Hmmm, if there is stuffing going on in this match, the UK is near the top of my list.

Earlier in this contest, when it looked like FFVII had fallen off a cliff, part of me suspected that there might regional trends behind this (mainly FFVII dropping off in the USA), so I decided to compare FFVII/Pokemon matches over previous years as an example. Prior to 2013 Pokemon/FFVII matches produced roughly similar results in both the USA and the UK. In 2013 however, the two examples I had to draw from (Vincent/Mewtwo, and Cloud/Lugia) showed that FFVII's popularity relative to Pokemon at least had fallen off noticeably in the US as opposed to the UK.

However, in this match the FFVII character is actually *under*performing against the Pokemon character in the UK, a huge reversal. Make of this what you will, but that's my (admittedly unscientific and kind of weak) analysis.
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#172 | swordz9 | Posted 9/6/2013 1:07:31 PM | message detail
Squirtle going for 300 finally? Also as if it hasn't been said enough LOL Cloud and vote totals being disastrous.
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#173 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/6/2013 1:08:56 PM | message detail
It'd be a fantastic twist if Bacon chose now to lop off 2000 votes from Squirtle for stuffing.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#174 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 9/6/2013 1:11:27 PM | message detail
There's a fact that's really sinking in and marinating in my mind.

GlaDOS is going to be decidedly above Zack Fair in the X-Stats. GlaDOS. This chick.

http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Vincent_vs_Falco_vs_GLaDOS_vs_Wander_2008

This s***'s so beautiful.
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[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
#175 | Kinglicious | Posted 9/6/2013 1:12:00 PM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Kinglicious posted...
Nanis23 posted...
Pokemon/Pokemon/Megaman finals will kill me
Megaman is the only character I can't vote against that isn't a Pokemon!
I have no idea what I want to vote in his match against Charizard! (I guess for Zero to not change the outcome?)


That's what I'm counting on!
Mega Man has all the cuteness, badassness, nostalgia, and now Smash on his side that only the Pokemon can match.

And he's strong as hell to boot.

To be honest,Mega Man deserves to win this contest more than anyone
Capcom doesn't care about MM,they probably didn't even respond to the Facebook group people made to show they care and got 100k likes...
And now Megaman is replaced by Mighty No 9,so even if Capcom does bring MM back,it's just to rival Infaune

Come to think of it,rallying for MM on the "Get me off the Moon" Facebook page can be very..useful
This page was created for the sole purpose of showing Capcom that the fans care about MM,and what is a better way than to let him win this contest..?


...this I never thought of. Mega Man counter rally? I'm down.
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#176 | BleedingRed | Posted 9/6/2013 1:12:23 PM | message detail
I think most people know that stuffing has been going on forever in these contests. The site admin has never been capable or competent enough to prevent it.

Sometimes it's more noticeable than others.
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#177 | Greyfeld | Posted 9/6/2013 1:12:36 PM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
It'd be a fantastic twist if Bacon chose now to lop off 2000 votes from Squirtle for stuffing.


I don't actually expect him to admit to any stuffing in matches where it actually matters. Pulling votes in matches where the outcome doesn't change is a good way to show that he's doing something, without admitting that stuffers are actually having an effect on the outcome of the matches.
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#178 | swordz9 | Posted 9/6/2013 1:14:28 PM | message detail
I thought the new anti-stuffing security/technology thing made it pretty obvious votes were never going to be removed again >_>
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#179 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/6/2013 1:14:55 PM | message detail
The rallied votes are probably having a disproportionate impact on the UK, given that 4chan is a primarily US/UK based site. I mean, I don't doubt there might be some cheating, but there's a lot more at play here.

People are downplaying the confluence of events that's leading to Squirtle being in this (still has to survive the SNV, which I still like giving him a 40% chance of doing). Cloud definitely breaks 55%+ on him in a 1v1 neutral match. Not only is he being heavily rallied, but he's also got pic factor on his side in a ridiculous way, and Leon is certainly more of a drag on Cloud than he is Squirtle. Add in a few thousand rallied votes, and Squirtle's getting creamed normally.

Now, Cloud being worth 55% on Squirtle is bad, don't get me wrong. Even giving Pokemon all the credit in the world it's probably worth being 55% on Sonic or something. But he's not quite this weak.
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#180 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 9/6/2013 1:16:02 PM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
After all this.....Crono's performance against Pikachu looks a lot better. Crono was over 46% on Pikachu in a day match, with Magus dragging him down. What a champ.


Let's not forget: prior to that match, a lot of people were talking about how much better CT looked this year. Particularly during Frog's R2 match. I don't buy all the gloom-and-doom about Crono either; Pokemon's just been roided beyond belief this year.

At this point, I'd take RBY over FFVII without the slightest of apprehension.
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[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
#181 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/6/2013 1:17:00 PM | message detail
I was about posting a theory about LPF being a major thing in SFF match and how it would affect Megaman/Zero/Charizard and give Megaman the win,using many cases of hard LPF like Link/Shepard/Draven,this match,Crono/Magus,Fox/Wolf
Add the fact that this is both SFF and LPF and I think Zero won't rSFF Megaman like he did in 1vs1 and 4ways

But then I read TheRock and Scarlettail posts about voting for your favorite and I was like "nevermind"
#182 | Kinglicious | Posted 9/6/2013 1:17:31 PM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
In matches with Link, all votes for "Link" go to Link. After all, if people really wanted to vote for the other character, they could come back at a different hour when they are able to vote for him.


Won't lie, this took me a second to get.
And then I laughed way harder than I have in days.
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#183 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/6/2013 1:18:52 PM | message detail
Crono's not quite as good as Pikachu implies, because while Pikachu got some rallies he was never threatened enough to pull out the big guns. If Crono had threatened Pikachu, that's when you would have seen the rat roid up.

You can probably make some stat adjustments for it if you're really clever about it. It's advisable if you don't want to fall into traps like believing Cloud is worth less than 58% on Dante.
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#184 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 9/6/2013 1:19:10 PM | message detail
swordz9 posted...
new anti-stuffing security/technology thing


Straight from glorious Pyongang.
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#185 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 9/6/2013 1:21:40 PM | message detail
TheCodeisBosco posted...
red sox 777 posted...
After all this.....Crono's performance against Pikachu looks a lot better. Crono was over 46% on Pikachu in a day match, with Magus dragging him down. What a champ.


Let's not forget: prior to that match, a lot of people were talking about how much better CT looked this year. Particularly during Frog's R2 match. I don't buy all the gloom-and-doom about Crono either; Pokemon's just been roided beyond belief this year.

At this point, I'd take RBY over FFVII without the slightest of apprehension.


I'm not buying anything about a CT boost - I honestly think this is more the low votals than anything else.
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#186 | tennisboy213 | Posted 9/6/2013 1:21:48 PM | message detail
So how close does Cloud need to be to have a chance with the SNV? I'm thinking within 200 at 10pm. Even that seems difficult to overcome.
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POKEFEAR
#187 | Kinglicious | Posted 9/6/2013 1:21:49 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
The rallied votes are probably having a disproportionate impact on the UK, given that 4chan is a primarily US/UK based site. I mean, I don't doubt there might be some cheating, but there's a lot more at play here.

People are downplaying the confluence of events that's leading to Squirtle being in this (still has to survive the SNV, which I still like giving him a 40% chance of doing). Cloud definitely breaks 55%+ on him in a 1v1 neutral match. Not only is he being heavily rallied, but he's also got pic factor on his side in a ridiculous way, and Leon is certainly more of a drag on Cloud than he is Squirtle. Add in a few thousand rallied votes, and Squirtle's getting creamed normally.

Now, Cloud being worth 55% on Squirtle is bad, don't get me wrong. Even giving Pokemon all the credit in the world it's probably worth being 55% on Sonic or something. But he's not quite this weak.


Is that all you'd give it? I honestly am being reminded of 2010 Charizard here. He got 55% on Bowser and 47% on Mario. If you think of Squirtle as having risen to those levels at this point of the contest the results make a striking amount of sense.
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The King Wang.
Listen up Urinal Cake. I already have something that tells me if I'm too drunk when I pee on it: My friends. - Colbert.
#188 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/6/2013 1:22:15 PM | message detail
If someone really want to try and doesn't want to see Charizard advancing in an unfair match,
https://www.facebook.com/GetMeOffTheMoon
It has half the subscribers of that Skyward Sword page that brought about 700 votes for Link in his match against Draven,but this is the best possible place to rally for Megaman
Just contact the owner of the page (I have no idea how,don't use Facebook) and im sure he will help
Rallying for Megaman in some...Mighty no.9 discussion can be useful too
#189 | TheRock1525 | Posted 9/6/2013 1:23:02 PM | message detail
cloud is dun

;_;
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#190 | swordz9 | Posted 9/6/2013 1:23:25 PM | message detail
tennisboy213 posted...
So how close does Cloud need to be to have a chance with the SNV? I'm thinking within 200 at 10pm. Even that seems difficult to overcome.

It been at under 300 for many many hours. I don't think the Squirtle rally is dying to give Cloud a chance even at night.
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#191 | G0EMONIMPACT | Posted 9/6/2013 1:23:45 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Crono's not quite as good as Pikachu implies, because while Pikachu got some rallies he was never threatened enough to pull out the big guns. If Crono had threatened Pikachu, that's when you would have seen the rat roid up.

You can probably make some stat adjustments for it if you're really clever about it. It's advisable if you don't want to fall into traps like believing Cloud is worth less than 58% on Dante.


Ryu barely beat Dante in 2010, and then got damn near doubled by Cloud, to put that in perspective
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KoolAidShoto pls
#192 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/6/2013 1:27:14 PM | message detail
I just realized Draven's next match is on September 11th.
Ulp.
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[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
#193 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/6/2013 1:28:15 PM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
I just realized Draven's next match is on September 11th.
Ulp.


Is it going to affect the match at all? (not American)
#194 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/6/2013 1:28:38 PM | message detail
Someone rally on Cloud on Reddit!
Also what 4chan people will do from now on? Support Squirtle and Pikachu I guess?
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#195 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/6/2013 1:28:55 PM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
I just realized Draven's next match is on September 11th.
Ulp.


Draven is an Al Qaeda member, vote Mewtwo! :lol
#196 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/6/2013 1:29:12 PM | message detail
I think this match proves that Cloud underperforms against cold-blooded animals. Unfortunately, we still don't have a good read on how he'd perform against dogs.
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#197 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/6/2013 1:29:28 PM | message detail
The SNV has lower totals, but Squirtle's natural intake will fall off a cliff relative to Cloud when it begins. Pokemon sucks with the second night vote and Cloud's was enough to take tons of updates from Link last contest (now, not this Cloud, but the point remains).

The lower totals will make the rallies more effective. But Squirtle will need MUCH more effective rallies to stay afloat during the SNV. He can do it. I give him about a 40% chance of doing so right now!
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#198 | Greyfeld | Posted 9/6/2013 1:29:55 PM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
Someone rally on Cloud on Reddit!


Somebody already tried. Tons of support for Squirtle.
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#199 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/6/2013 1:31:18 PM | message detail
It just means you guys aren't rallying Cloud hard enough! Any character can be rallied to win a match, just ask Link!
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#200 | wedontgetfooledagain | Posted 9/6/2013 1:32:12 PM | message detail
So weird that Canada is for Cloud sheerly due to the amount of votes from Quebec, plus the one vote from the Yukon lmao. Not even Ontario, which has more people, and having all the other provinces pulling for Squirtle puts the country as a whole for him.

Finally my province Saskatchewan supports a real winner!
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