Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1158

#1 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/6/2013 10:20:11 AM | message detail
What you see now is reality. 2003, that is the illusion.

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#2 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/6/2013 10:20:42 AM | message detail
I am a huge Pokemon fan but some things have limits.
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
#3 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 9/6/2013 10:36:27 AM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
I am a huge Pokemon fan but some things have limits.


Yeah. This would be awesome if GameFAQs thought Squirtle > Cloud, but I'm getting sick of these constant rallies. Next contest really needs to be registered users only
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"You are insects railing against the heavens. Your actions will change nothing." - Uhai, Fire Emblem 7
#4 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/6/2013 10:38:26 AM | message detail
Wow, Squirtle's still got a decent lead. Guess being a Pokemon is all the difference!

Would Jigglypuff have beat Sephiroth?
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Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy II - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3557012
Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64
#5 | GloryChaos | Posted 9/6/2013 10:38:37 AM | message detail
OrangeCrush980 posted...
Safer_777 posted...
I am a huge Pokemon fan but some things have limits.


Yeah. This would be awesome if GameFAQs thought Squirtle > Cloud, but I'm getting sick of these constant rallies. Next contest really needs to be registered users only


The sub 20k vote totals would be really depressing.
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Brawl FC - 1332 8069 6690
http://i.imgur.com/OZ9aS.png
#6 | Geiki Ganger | Posted 9/6/2013 10:39:16 AM | message detail
#7 | Greyfeld | Posted 9/6/2013 10:39:21 AM | message detail
OrangeCrush980 posted...
Safer_777 posted...
I am a huge Pokemon fan but some things have limits.


Yeah. This would be awesome if GameFAQs thought Squirtle > Cloud, but I'm getting sick of these constant rallies. Next contest really needs to be registered users only


B-B-But, site traffic!!
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PSN - Aevio
"I'm on a Goomba." - BlackMageJawa
#8 | Kyle Bowen | Posted 9/6/2013 10:42:24 AM | message detail | (edited)
Can we get a real pokemon in this tournament next year...

I'm thinking Arcanine!
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KB
#9 | The Mana Sword | Posted 9/6/2013 10:40:23 AM | message detail
GloryChaos posted...
OrangeCrush980 posted...
Safer_777 posted...
I am a huge Pokemon fan but some things have limits.


Yeah. This would be awesome if GameFAQs thought Squirtle > Cloud, but I'm getting sick of these constant rallies. Next contest really needs to be registered users only


The sub 20k vote totals would be really depressing.


by the looks of things it'll get to that point naturally in a couple years anyway!
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i'll do rydia -Dante
#10 | Greyfeld | Posted 9/6/2013 10:42:25 AM | message detail
GloryChaos posted...
OrangeCrush980 posted...
Safer_777 posted...
I am a huge Pokemon fan but some things have limits.


Yeah. This would be awesome if GameFAQs thought Squirtle > Cloud, but I'm getting sick of these constant rallies. Next contest really needs to be registered users only


The sub 20k vote totals would be really depressing.


If the website didn't look and feel like it was stuck in the 90's, I'm sure our vote totals would be higher. As it stands, getting an overhaul of the site's look and functionality seems to be outside of Allen's purview.

And yes, I know our front page recently got a redesign. But it was like an HD re-release of a video game: A slight graphical upgrade, with no other important or noticeable changes.
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PSN - Aevio
"I'm on a Goomba." - BlackMageJawa
#11 | Scarlettail | Posted 9/6/2013 10:42:38 AM | message detail
Anything that leads to Squirtle wins is fine by me.
#12 | xp1337 | Posted 9/6/2013 10:43:35 AM | message detail
Am I the only one who likes that the site is "stuck in the 90s"?

>_>

except spoiler tags of course but we solved that problem
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#13 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 9/6/2013 10:43:56 AM | message detail
I like how Squirtle can have a 66 update and a 120 update almost back to back
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
#14 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 9/6/2013 10:44:27 AM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
Wow, Squirtle's still got a decent lead. Guess being a Pokemon is all the difference!

Would Jigglypuff have beat Sephiroth?


Considering that Mega Man X fodderized it... I VERY highly doubt it.
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"Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
#15 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 9/6/2013 10:49:54 AM | message detail
Five hours later and Cloud makes no progress.

Time to call it for Squirtle!
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
#16 | CP724 | Posted 9/6/2013 10:50:34 AM | message detail
Can we go back to when pokemon were like this?

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/946
#17 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/6/2013 10:51:21 AM | message detail
Need I say again about Americans bad taste in characters?
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
#18 | BleedingRed | Posted 9/6/2013 10:52:36 AM | message detail
Please... don't make us look like Link fans. Squirtle is legit - he's strong, and being rallied. I don't think this is stuffing - Link fans actually cried real tears over Draven 'stuffing'; we should lose with dignity.


I'm not crying about it. Squirtle is most definitely not legit. I was pointing out the discrepancy in the voting patterns for Squirtle. He is pretty consistent when getting rallied at being around the same strength (sometimes slightly weaker, sometimes slightly stronger) as Cloud -- however, when Cloud does start making significant cuts Squirtle suddenly gets massive boosts which fall outside of the voting pattern. It just doesn't make sense.

I'm not personally invested in the contest and after the match is over I'm not going to care either way. However, some of Squirtle's updates have been fishy at best.
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When we are no longer able to change a situation, we are challenged to change ourselves.
Riven - Aatrox - Tryndamere
#19 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/6/2013 10:55:15 AM | message detail | (edited)
People complaining about low vote totals and rallies that haven't signed my petition?

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/7-site-suggestions/67111376

Come on now.
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[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
#20 | lightning-02 | Posted 9/6/2013 10:53:55 AM | message detail
So how about Squirtle tripling Leon Kennedy. How does this make you feel?
#21 | abdou | Posted 9/6/2013 10:54:14 AM | message detail
This contest can not possibly get any worse. And please people stop saying "rally" this is vote stuffing and Allen has to be the worst admin ever.
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#22 | im317 | Posted 9/6/2013 10:54:24 AM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
Need I say again about Americans bad taste in characters?


Squirtle is also winning in the UK
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"L-Block 2007 Character Battle Champion"Always remember
"L-Block, shaped like a boot to kick your ass"
#23 | Greyfeld | Posted 9/6/2013 10:55:23 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
Am I the only one who likes that the site is "stuck in the 90s"?

>_>

except spoiler tags of course but we solved that problem


I'm not bashing anybody who likes the site the way it is. I'm just saying that it's not very conducive for bringing in new people.

If they would overhaul the interface, the FAQ layouts, and introduce video walkthroughs, I'm willing to bet that the traffic on this site would increase pretty dramatically.
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PSN - Aevio
"I'm on a Goomba." - BlackMageJawa
#24 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 9/6/2013 10:56:45 AM | message detail
Yeah, this is getting pretty old. RallyFAQs + 3-ways.

Is Snake / GlaDOS / Kefka our best guess at unrallied votals? That match had ~32K at the 14-hour mark. This one and Seph / BB / Kirby are 36-37K. Link / Draven obv had a bunch and didn't Sonic / Mewtwo / Bowser have spillover from Link / Draven.
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... as if rights are like muscles - the more you use it, the better it gets. Indeed he may be exercising his first amendment-- but he's an IDIOT!
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#25 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/6/2013 10:57:13 AM | message detail
Now we are calling vote stuffing vote Squirtle because when Cloud is getting close lightning bump the rally threads
Amazing
#26 | lightning-02 | Posted 9/6/2013 10:57:20 AM | message detail
Greyfeld posted...
xp1337 posted...
Am I the only one who likes that the site is "stuck in the 90s"?

>_>

except spoiler tags of course but we solved that problem


I'm not bashing anybody who likes the site the way it is. I'm just saying that it's not very conducive for bringing in new people.

If they would overhaul the interface, the FAQ layouts, and introduce video walkthroughs, I'm willing to bet that the traffic on this site would increase pretty dramatically.


More than anything else they've missed a trick on graphic, high quality trophy/achievement guides, there's other places that popped up that are seen as the hub for information and guides on those.
#27 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 9/6/2013 10:57:42 AM | message detail
Squirtle is actually winning the UK by more than he is in the US

I... did not expect that. I thought they generally prefer the FF dudes over Pokemon
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
#28 | abdou | Posted 9/6/2013 10:58:31 AM | message detail
They already changed the site's look which looks a lot better and modern than before. They already introduced video walkthroughs, as well.
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#29 | im317 | Posted 9/6/2013 11:02:34 AM | message detail
isn't site traffic in general up? i thought it was just that people use Google and go directly to the page they want, hence less people seeing the main page, and less votes. which is why that suggestion to have the poll on every page could substantially(thousands) increase vote totals.
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"L-Block 2007 Character Battle Champion"Always remember
"L-Block, shaped like a boot to kick your ass"
#30 | Greyfeld | Posted 9/6/2013 11:03:02 AM | message detail
lightning-02 posted...
Greyfeld posted...
xp1337 posted...
Am I the only one who likes that the site is "stuck in the 90s"?

>_>

except spoiler tags of course but we solved that problem


I'm not bashing anybody who likes the site the way it is. I'm just saying that it's not very conducive for bringing in new people.

If they would overhaul the interface, the FAQ layouts, and introduce video walkthroughs, I'm willing to bet that the traffic on this site would increase pretty dramatically.


More than anything else they've missed a trick on graphic, high quality trophy/achievement guides, there's other places that popped up that are seen as the hub for information and guides on those.


There's that, too. I don't understand why the admins for this site are so willing to just sit on their laurels and let it die in obsolescence.
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PSN - Aevio
"I'm on a Goomba." - BlackMageJawa
#31 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 9/6/2013 11:03:22 AM | message detail
Also Squirtle is very casually heading towards his peak lead of the match at the moment
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
#32 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/6/2013 11:04:00 AM | message detail
Ahahaha, holy s***, at this rate Squirtle might actually win this.
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Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy II - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3557012
Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64
#33 | SuorGenoveffa | Posted 9/6/2013 11:04:53 AM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
Wow, Squirtle's still got a decent lead. Guess being a Pokemon is all the difference!

Would Jigglypuff have beat Sephiroth?


No.

Also really guys, only registered votes? These contests are supposed to increase site traffic, not being a collective circle-jerk to have all the results you want.

All this whining is honestly becoming irritating.
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SuperNiceDog won the Guru contest super nicely!
#34 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 9/6/2013 11:06:28 AM | message detail
I would be satisfied with an option that just shows how the registered users voted in a poll, ala something similar to geolocation.

Unfortunately Allen has said that he does not track that data.

But he should!
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
#35 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 9/6/2013 11:07:18 AM | message detail
6 away from peak lead.

This is over
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
#36 | Scarlettail | Posted 9/6/2013 11:08:04 AM | message detail
Surfin' Squirtle.
#37 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 9/6/2013 11:08:28 AM | message detail
Man, this isn't even Squirtle going nuts. Cloud is just dying off.
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~War~
#38 | GloriousSweater | Posted 9/6/2013 11:08:33 AM | message detail
Pokemon's rally-fuel, which really would only affect them in later rounds, is probably enough to propel them over a few Noble 9ers, and that's it.

Link - off limits
Mario - off limits unless you've got the huevos big enough to go for it
Samus - same as Mario, perhaps to a slightly lesser extent
Snake, Cloud, Sephiroth, Mega Man - in play

everyone lower (apart from maybe Zelda/Ganondorf because the Nintendo SFF is so hard-fought there) - the biggest Pokemon (Charizard, Squirtle/Blastoise, Pikachu, Mewtwo, perhaps Red) might easily have the legit GameFAQs strength to beat these guys without rallies, even in early rounds.
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#39 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/6/2013 11:10:09 AM | message detail
Mario and Samus aren't off limits- we just saw Vivi use a rally to beat Mario. Pokemon has never folded to Mario's SFF before. Link is the only only only one.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#40 | eaglesarebeasts | Posted 9/6/2013 11:10:10 AM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
Ahahaha, holy s***, at this rate Squirtle might actually win this.


Haven't we pretty much been thinking for the last few hours? Cloud will eventually start cutting again later, he'll get close to tying, and then Squirtle will start rallying again. I can't really see how Cloud can win this.
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http://i.imgur.com/CQVaT6Xl.jpg
#41 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 9/6/2013 11:10:13 AM | message detail
And to think I had Dante beating Squirtle when I made my bracket.

I think he might be the character I underestimated the most in character battle history, not counting 2002.
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
#42 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/6/2013 11:10:35 AM | message detail
I blame the crew. They said Sephiroth would lose and he won easily. They said Cloud would win and he is losing easy. Creeeeeeeeeeeeew!!!
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
#43 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 9/6/2013 11:12:13 AM | message detail
At this point in Red/Blue vs. Cloud/Sephiroth, Red/Blue were up 14.
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~War~
#44 | UberPyro64 | Posted 9/6/2013 11:13:29 AM | message detail
Charizard, Squirtle/Blastoise, Pikachu, Mewtwo, Red and Blue are definitely the strongest Pokemon characters. Besides Pikachu/Blue (Only one can go), all of them will make it to the next round.

Final 9 Prediction:

Draven
Mewtwo
Sephiroth
Snake
Squirtle
Blue
L-Block
Red
Charizard
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#45 | Qwaar | Posted 9/6/2013 11:13:59 AM | message detail
Bah, this is garbage. Squirtle probably has this.
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XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak
#46 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/6/2013 11:14:43 AM | message detail
eaglesarebeasts posted...
Not_Wylvane posted...
Ahahaha, holy s***, at this rate Squirtle might actually win this.


Haven't we pretty much been thinking for the last few hours? Cloud will eventually start cutting again later, he'll get close to tying, and then Squirtle will start rallying again. I can't really see how Cloud can win this.


But a lot of people have been pointing to trends favoring Cloud due to FF7's insanely absymal early vote and due to rally saturation/drop-off after a given point, and it looks the latter ain't happening and the former isn't enough to counteract Squirtle's rallies.

Also, the site's former #2 as recently as 2010 is literally losing to a Pokemon.
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Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy II - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3557012
Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64
#47 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 9/6/2013 11:14:56 AM | message detail
One of Pikachu/Blue winning Pikachu/Blue/Sora would be more absurd than anything else Pokemon has done this contest.
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~War~
#48 | BleedingRed | Posted 9/6/2013 11:16:09 AM | message detail
FranzyvonKarma posted...
One of Pikachu/Blue winning Pikachu/Blue/Sora would be more absurd than anything else Pokemon has done this contest.


I would say Squirtle beating Cloud would be the most absurd thing that pokemon has ever done in this contest.
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When we are no longer able to change a situation, we are challenged to change ourselves.
Riven - Aatrox - Tryndamere
#49 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/6/2013 11:16:16 AM | message detail
Link is the only thing off limit for Pokemon.

We've seen Pokemon disappoint multiple times against Zelda. Mewtwo struggling with Midna, Mewtwo easily losing to Ganondorf, Charizard needing massive rallies to beat Zelda.
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#50 | White_Tiger | Posted 9/6/2013 11:17:32 AM | message detail
This contest has gotten so bad I don't care anymore, in fact I doubt I will even come back for the rest of the matches. So many rallies and vote stuffing.