Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1157

#251 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 9/6/2013 7:30:21 AM | message detail
As cool as Blue/Rat winning next round would be, I'd rather see if Squirtle can sneak by Snake/Sora.

I mean, that doesn't mean I'm not voting for SMELL YA LATER, but still.
---
~War~
#252 | lightning-02 | Posted 9/6/2013 7:30:26 AM | message detail
XIII_rocks posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
I don't think there's much of a difference between this and Draven! It's just a matter of scale. The margin of victory isn't the thing that matters at the end of the day, only the ultimate victor. In that sense, Draven is exactly what we've been asking for.

Not the hero we need - the hero we deserve.


Oh the margin of victory absolutely matters. It's an excess. If something happens in too much excess, it's not good. I don't mind rallies, but Draven is absolutely "too much of a good thing" in that his rally - during MMX/Ryu at least - was so effective that it becomes ridiculous.

Say what you want about Pokemon but its heavily rallied matches now constitute 3 of the top 5 closest matches of all time. Now granted, it won all 3, but there's some luck in there. If 8 of the thousands of rallied Charizard voters had decided they preferred Zelda as a kid and voted Zelda, Zard loses. Pokemon might win all its close matches, but they're still close matches. Even after years of Pokemon winning in these situations, nobody actually gave up on Zelda in those last 15 minutes when it looked like she might make the comeback.

I guess you could say Pokemon's rally is "too much of a good thing" too, and it is more widespread, but it also leads to good matches. I personally think this contest would have been very mediocre without the Pokemon involved.


I was rallying for Zelda at the very end of that match, I just left it too late. The voters were letting her die in a big way to what was coming in from Reddit. Cute girl against edgy dragon added with Reddit picking the other side usually draws support on /v/.
I don't necessarily think pokemon is very rallyable on /v/, much like Final Fantasy Vivi and Squirtle are lovable exceptions.
#253 | XIII_rocks | Posted 9/6/2013 7:31:31 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
People are splitting hairs between the Pokerallies and the Dravenrallies. Scale doesn't matter if the outcome is the same. Draven's last match was close (and would have been a nailbiter in the absence of WELCOME TO THE LEAGUE OF DOWNTIME). Didn't make the rally any less lame.

People like when the characters they want to win are rallied and win. People dislike when the characters they want to lose are rallied and win.

This is very simple. You have people hopping on the Draven bandwagon in the face of the Pokerallies for a reason, after all.


Scale always matters. I want ice cream - that doesn't mean I want all of it. Pokemon rallies might give you a bit of every flavour, but it doesn't pump every ounce of ice cream in the parlor into you like Draven does.

And your "simple" idea doesn't even apply to me. I was vehemently anti-Link; I was rooting for Draven to beat Link as early as round 1, even if half-jokingly. Draven's rally was so stupid that it turned me against him, and I became a Link supporter. I'm less anti-Draven now (my ire is with Allen) because the win was closer and he looks vaguely beatable - so I disliked Draven's rallying enough that it changed my mind about a character I disliked.
---
XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism.
#254 | XIII_rocks | Posted 9/6/2013 7:36:04 AM | message detail | (edited)
KamikazePotato posted...
Honestly, I think if you didn't now exactly how the ending of Zelda/Charizard was going to go down when Zelda was making her comeback then you haven't been paying attention to Pokemon matches whatsoever. There was no real hype, there.


It was 15 votes. It comes off as blindly anti-Pokemon to act like that wasn't in question. Ralliers don't control minds. It comes down to 8 people thinking "actually no I prefer Zelda". 8 people out of like 10k.
---
XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism.
#255 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 9/6/2013 7:36:07 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
People are splitting hairs between the Pokerallies and the Dravenrallies. Scale doesn't matter if the outcome is the same. Draven's last match was close (and would have been a nailbiter in the absence of WELCOME TO THE LEAGUE OF DOWNTIME). Didn't make the rally any less lame.

People like when the characters they want to win are rallied and win. People dislike when the characters they want to lose are rallied and win.

This is very simple. You have people hopping on the Draven bandwagon in the face of the Pokerallies for a reason, after all.


If Draven had faced Link Round 1 and won, I think it would have been different. But the absolute demolition of the MMX/Ryu poll left a terrible taste in a lot of people's mouths and is what really turned people against Draven much more than the Link match imo.

And sure, it's a matter of scale, but that doesn't mean they're anywhere near the same. Squirtle might rally an extra 6000 votes in a 50,000 vote match, and yeah, that's a game changer. But Draven matches had more rallied votes for him than entire polls. When there is a +100% of the voting pool being rallied, it makes GameFAQs completely irrelevant in its own poll.

You are correct in saying that nobody likes when "their guy" is rallied against. But if a character I like loses due to a reasonable number of rallied votes, I figure that's fair play. Mario loses to Vivi? Eh, not the way my vote went, but it makes for a fun upset. If I'm making a bracket, that means that they're close enough that I should have accounted for it. When an 80-20 result gets switched though, that just destroys suspension of disbelief.
---
Menji has reclaimed what was his by rights. I was more of a man with his than with my own combined.
##Alec
#256 | KamikazePotato | Posted 9/6/2013 7:36:25 AM | message detail
The closeness of the ending result is completely artificial and has everything to do with rallies, which is why it happens to Pokemon constantly. Rallies make matches close, but Pokemon always has stronger rallies, so it always wins.
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#257 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/6/2013 7:37:08 AM | message detail
So Link and Cloud don't advance but Sephiroth does. Still can't believe it.
---
GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
#258 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 9/6/2013 7:38:11 AM | message detail
With regards to Snake, if Squirtle wins this he is almost certainly beating Snake. Snake has actually looked a little weaker this year, contrary to popular belief (based on Kefka). I don't think it's a significant drop if anything, but it's not like Snake has been the beast people want to think he is. I don't think the Cloud drop is enough to the point where he loses anything but a super narrow match to Snake.

Unless Squirtle just doesn't get rallied, not happening.

Man, the only good thing to come out of RallyFAQs is the fact that if Mewtwo beats Draven and Squirtle beats Snake, we might see Samus take the whole thing. It going to an established, non-rallied character as a result of all the rallies blowing up in their creators' faces would be the best possible result.
---
Something something something
^Poorly disguised anti-caps sig
#259 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/6/2013 7:39:05 AM | message detail
Sora must suck very very much to lose to either Pikachu or Blue
Using 2010 x-stats,it only projects Pikachu a 54% win over Sora
Give Pikachu a massive boost as he should take,and Sora getting weaker...let's be crazy and say Pikachu wins 60-40
Give it a pool of 50k votes,and Pikachu wins with 30k-20k
Which sounds nice,but add Blue into this match and those 30k will split...to the point Pikachu needs to 67-33% Blue..I don't think it's possible

Of course,you might project Pikachu to win over Sora by more than 60% in one by one..you might ever argue that people who would vote for Sora over Pikachu will prefer to vote Blue instead,thus weaking Sora..but who knows
#260 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 9/6/2013 7:39:26 AM | message detail
Sorry Lightning.

Final 5 gonna be Mewtwo, Squirtle, Red, Charizard, L-Block.

Hail our second multiple-time character battle champion, a Tetris piece.
---
~War~
#261 | UberPyro64 | Posted 9/6/2013 7:40:08 AM | message detail
Lightning Strikes posted...
With regards to Snake, if Squirtle wins this he is almost certainly beating Snake. Snake has actually looked a little weaker this year, contrary to popular belief (based on Kefka). I don't think it's a significant drop if anything, but it's not like Snake has been the beast people want to think he is. I don't think the Cloud drop is enough to the point where he loses anything but a super narrow match to Snake.

Unless Squirtle just doesn't get rallied, not happening.

Man, the only good thing to come out of RallyFAQs is the fact that if Mewtwo beats Draven and Squirtle beats Snake, we might see Samus take the whole thing. It going to an established, non-rallied character as a result of all the rallies blowing up in their creators' faces would be the best possible result.


Nope. Charizard won't let that happen.

Mewtwo/Squirtle/Charizard final.

It might just happen.
---
Super Smash Bros. 3DS/Wii U Official Site: http://www.smashbros.com/us/
#262 | swordz9 | Posted 9/6/2013 7:40:22 AM | message detail
Ugh L-Block winning again would be worse than Draven.
---
http://myanimelist.net/animelist/swordz9
#263 | XIII_rocks | Posted 9/6/2013 7:43:02 AM | message detail | (edited)
KamikazePotato posted...
The closeness of the ending result is completely artificial and has everything to do with rallies, which is why it happens to Pokemon constantly. Rallies make matches close, but Pokemon always has stronger rallies, so it always wins.


All I'm hearing is blah blah blah in the face of 15 votes. Sorry, but no amount of anti-Pokemon diatribe is convincing me that Zard/Zelda wasn't in question. I'd move on - this is a pointless discussion because I'm completely nonplussed by the idea that a match that had a vote difference of 19 with 5 minutes to go is "not in question". 5 minutes earlier, Zelda had cut 33 votes.

Doesn't make sense. I think you have to have had your soul completely crushed by Pokemon wins for you to think this way.
---
XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism.
#264 | VitalVI | Posted 9/6/2013 7:43:07 AM | message detail | (edited)
UberPyro64 posted...

Mewtwo/Squirtle/Charizard final.

It might just happen.

Overlord Werster Will not be let down
Speedrunning community GO
Pokemon will win.
---
WR WR WR WR WR
#265 | KamikazePotato | Posted 9/6/2013 7:42:29 AM | message detail | (edited)
It wasn't in question. Zelda had like a 1% chance of actually winning the match at that stage. How much Zelda was cutting earlier is completely irrelevant because she was getting rallied then and Charizard wasn't. As soon as Zard backers got back in the game, it was over. This is not new - the exact same thing happened to Tidus.
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#266 | SirBillyNic | Posted 9/6/2013 7:42:49 AM | message detail
Who do you lot rate the favorite to win the entire Character Battle at this point?
#267 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 9/6/2013 7:43:05 AM | message detail
yeah kp but tidus was cheating at a 2 to 1 rate
---
~War~
#268 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 9/6/2013 7:43:34 AM | message detail
SirBillyNic posted...
Who do you lot rate the favorite to win the entire Character Battle at this point?


Draven is a bigger lock than Link has ever been.
---
~War~
#269 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 9/6/2013 7:43:41 AM | message detail
An all Pokemon final would be hilarious, but not necessarily in a good way. I wonder who would win that one. Mewtwo?
---
Something something something
^Poorly disguised anti-caps sig
#270 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/6/2013 7:44:01 AM | message detail
I don't agree with "people don't like rallying if the character they like lost"

I have yet to have a character I like lose to a non-Draven rallied character,but I got expert-challenge ruined by some of them and I don't mind too much
Catherine>Neku,L-Block>Auron,Vivi>Mario,Missile>Kerrigan
I honestly don't care about too much even when I was high on the expert leaderboard

But Draven is a different story..what happened in the X/Ryu/Draven match was too much stupid (Draven by himself pulling more votes than the vote total of the most popular poll in this contest? really)
#271 | FFDragon | Posted 9/6/2013 7:45:28 AM | message detail | (edited)
XIII_rocks posted...
Scale always matters. I want ice cream - that doesn't mean I want all of it. Pokemon rallies might give you a bit of every flavour, but it doesn't pump every ounce of ice cream in the parlor into you like Draven does.


Scale does matter.

If there was one pokemon getting pushed it wouldn't be so bad, but a third (or more) of the final nine? Okay guys, throttle back.

Give me the League of Downtime over that. At least he's only one entry.
---
If you wake up at a different time, in a different place, could you wake up as a different person? [HERO'S PLUNGE]
http://img.imgcake.com/finegifdy.gif
#272 | eaglesarebeasts | Posted 9/6/2013 7:45:01 AM | message detail
I keep refreshing every update hoping to see Squirtle drop... but no such luck. I really don't see how Cloud is possibly going to win this.

And how can anyone still doubt Pikachu tomorrow? Even with Blue in the poll, Pikachu will win because Pokemon is unstoppable.
---
http://i.imgur.com/CQVaT6Xl.jpg
#273 | KamikazePotato | Posted 9/6/2013 7:45:06 AM | message detail
Like, you're trying to create artificial drama where this is none. Pokemon hasn't lost a close match since 2007.
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#274 | XIII_rocks | Posted 9/6/2013 7:45:16 AM | message detail
SirBillyNic posted...
Who do you lot rate the favorite to win the entire Character Battle at this point?


Draven. With a heavy rally Mewtwo has an outside shot of beating him, but GameFAQs is going to favour Sephiroth so it'd have to be the biggest, most consistent rally of all time. I'm not sure anyone in the final can actually stand up to Draven, unless L-Block catches a huge rally, because the GameFAQs vote is going to be so split in the final match and any rallying force will consequentially be split as well.
---
XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism.
#275 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/6/2013 7:45:21 AM | message detail
You know what's almost just as close as eight votes out of 24.5k? 383 votes out of 122k. Oh, and probably drops to sub-100 vote spread without the downtime.

Same thing. It's just hypocrisy.
---
Welcome to the League of Downtime.
#276 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 9/6/2013 7:46:10 AM | message detail
Poker analogy:

If you go all in with QQ vs. AsKs, you are a 54-46 favorite but if you lose, you go "well, at least I got my money in when I was in front".

If you go all in with QQ vs. Q-2, then he pulls a runner-runner for the win, that's when you have a harder time writing it off.
---
Menji has reclaimed what was his by rights. I was more of a man with his than with my own combined.
##Alec
#277 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/6/2013 7:46:17 AM | message detail
Depending what you consider close match
This is close match but there is more than 13 hours remaining
So if it is considered a close match,missingno Squall was close as well...at first
#278 | Kinglicious | Posted 9/6/2013 7:46:54 AM | message detail
Mewtwo
Squirtle
Mega Man

This is the finals I want.
---
The King Wang.
Listen up Urinal Cake. I already have something that tells me if I'm too drunk when I pee on it: My friends. - Colbert.
#279 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/6/2013 7:46:59 AM | message detail
XIII_rocks posted...
SirBillyNic posted...
Who do you lot rate the favorite to win the entire Character Battle at this point?


Draven. With a heavy rally Mewtwo has an outside shot of beating him, but GameFAQs is going to favour Sephiroth so it'd have to be the biggest, most consistent rally of all time. I'm not sure anyone in the final can actually stand up to Draven, unless L-Block catches a huge rally, because the GameFAQs vote is going to be so split in the final match and any rallying force will consequentially be split as well.


Give me one reason GameFAQs will favour Sephiroth after Squirtle beat Cloud
#280 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 9/6/2013 7:47:00 AM | message detail
Oh, and I wouldn't call Draven a lock. It's hard to say. If he puts out a consistent performance, yeah, BUT between rounds 2 and 3 Draven's vote intake halved. If that happened again Mewtwo would win. It just might as well, since Draven rallies have now been banned on Reddit, and rallies tend to weaken over time. I really hope Mewtwo wins. Beats the alternative at least.
---
Something something something
^Poorly disguised anti-caps sig
#281 | eaglesarebeasts | Posted 9/6/2013 7:47:09 AM | message detail
FFDragon posted...

Give me the League of Downtime over that. At least he's only one entry.


Agreed. As much as I hated Draven, I will be voting for him over any Pokemon now.
---
http://i.imgur.com/CQVaT6Xl.jpg
#282 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 9/6/2013 7:47:23 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
You know what's almost just as close as eight votes out of 24.5k? 383 votes out of 122k. Oh, and probably drops to sub-100 vote spread without the downtime.

Same thing. It's just hypocrisy.


....That...

that isn't how math works, KH.

383 out of 122k is almost 10 times as much as 8 votes out of 24.5k.
---
~War~
#283 | VitalVI | Posted 9/6/2013 7:48:38 AM | message detail
XIII_rocks posted...
SirBillyNic posted...
Who do you lot rate the favorite to win the entire Character Battle at this point?


Draven. With a heavy rally Mewtwo has an outside shot of beating him, .

you doubt the power of the pokemon speedrunners,
Mewtwo will win
---
WR WR WR WR WR
#284 | swordz9 | Posted 9/6/2013 7:48:49 AM | message detail
I love Pokemon and had no doubt Charizard would beat Zelda in the final update. Also I doubt Pikachu because Blue is way more likely to be rallied. Sora should win, but this contest has been strange so who knows.
---
http://myanimelist.net/animelist/swordz9
#285 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/6/2013 7:48:53 AM | message detail
FranzyvonKarma posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
You know what's almost just as close as eight votes out of 24.5k? 383 votes out of 122k. Oh, and probably drops to sub-100 vote spread without the downtime.

Same thing. It's just hypocrisy.


....That...

that isn't how math works, KH.

383 out of 122k is almost 10 times as much as 8 votes out of 24.5k.


...if you thought I meant that statement literally maybe I do need to work on making myself more understandable to the masses.

The point is both are insanely close. You can't reasonably knock one without the other.
---
Welcome to the League of Downtime.
#286 | G0EMONIMPACT | Posted 9/6/2013 7:49:27 AM | message detail
Can't wait for that Mewtwo/Squirtle/Charizard final
---
KoolAidShoto pls
#287 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 9/6/2013 7:50:07 AM | message detail
I'm wondering if we won't see a significantly weaker Draven next round. His Gamefaqs votes were basically all people who just wanted Link to lose. Now that the LAW has been broken, these voters could go back to voting for someone they actually like.
---
Best.Result.Ever: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/5246
#288 | Kinglicious | Posted 9/6/2013 7:50:31 AM | message detail
If you don't want a Pokemon to win then you should get two in the finals and someone strong in third.

Mega Man can do it. Believe.
---
The King Wang.
Listen up Urinal Cake. I already have something that tells me if I'm too drunk when I pee on it: My friends. - Colbert.
#289 | XIII_rocks | Posted 9/6/2013 7:50:53 AM | message detail
FFDragon posted...
XIII_rocks posted...
Scale always matters. I want ice cream - that doesn't mean I want all of it. Pokemon rallies might give you a bit of every flavour, but it doesn't pump every ounce of ice cream in the parlor into you like Draven does.


Scale does matter.

If there was one pokemon getting pushed it wouldn't be so bad, but a third (or more) of the final nine? Okay guys, throttle back.

Give me the League of Downtime over that. At least he's only one entry.


Yeah, I see your problem. I don't want to sound like a douche but these close matches Pokemon has? Rally against them. If three or four of the people complaining about Zard had gone on twitter and done quick, individual rallies for Zelda fans, or posted it on some Zelda message board, or something, Zelda would have won. Pokemon's close matches might be "artificial" or some crap but the numbers aren't fake. 15 votes is a very rallyable margin. If you hate Pokemon's dominance so much, something could have been done about it, particularly in Zard's match.

Though on a personal note, as someone who had to sit through Square making up 4 of the final 8, or what have you, I can deal with this. Even Charizard is a better character than f***ing Yuna. Ugh.
---
XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism.
#290 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/6/2013 7:50:59 AM | message detail
And Sephiroth is probably going to get more GameFAQs support than Mewtwo because without rallies, he's probably stronger. Mewtwo gets the outside power. Sephiroth gets the core GameFAQs crowd. Draven rolllllllls.
---
Welcome to the League of Downtime.
#291 | SubDeity | Posted 9/6/2013 7:51:38 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
You know what's almost just as close as eight votes out of 24.5k? 383 votes out of 122k. Oh, and probably drops to sub-100 vote spread without the downtime.

Same thing. It's just hypocrisy.


Actually, it'd be more like 40 votes. Seriously, you have nothing to stand on here. There is zero certainty in a 15-vote gap.
---
"Hamas isn't really a terror organization." -Terran [Evil Republican]
Play Der Langrisser.
#292 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 9/6/2013 7:52:12 AM | message detail
Also KH where are you pulling 383 or 122k from? Link/Draven was twice that out of 108k.
---
~War~
#293 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/6/2013 7:53:02 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
And Sephiroth is probably going to get more GameFAQs support than Mewtwo because without rallies, he's probably stronger. Mewtwo gets the outside power. Sephiroth gets the core GameFAQs crowd. Draven rolllllllls.


Are you serious now
Cloud is far stronger than Sephiroth
Even if you consider Squirtle to be stronger than Mewtwo,it shouldn't be that much stronger than the gap between Cloud and Sephiroth will cover
#294 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 9/6/2013 7:53:03 AM | message detail
You know what we should do.

Convince Keiji Inafune to put up a rally for Mega Man on the Mighty No. 9 Kickstarter page, and send it to everyone who donated. He could then offer new features if Mega Man won. Draven would get buttannihilated.
---
Something something something
^Poorly disguised anti-caps sig
#295 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 9/6/2013 7:53:04 AM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
Like, you're trying to create artificial drama where this is none. Pokemon hasn't lost a close match since 2007.


How many close matches have there been since 2007? Sample size comes into play here.

Any match that is within 20 votes at the end is completely within the range of variance.

Remember how "Mario never loses a close match"?
---
Menji has reclaimed what was his by rights. I was more of a man with his than with my own combined.
##Alec
#296 | SubDeity | Posted 9/6/2013 7:53:43 AM | message detail
FranzyvonKarma posted...
Also KH where are you pulling 383 or 122k from? Link/Draven was twice that out of 108k.


It's half because we're speculating on possible switched votes.
---
"Hamas isn't really a terror organization." -Terran [Evil Republican]
Play Der Langrisser.
#297 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/6/2013 7:53:44 AM | message detail
SubDeity posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
You know what's almost just as close as eight votes out of 24.5k? 383 votes out of 122k. Oh, and probably drops to sub-100 vote spread without the downtime.

Same thing. It's just hypocrisy.


Actually, it'd be more like 40 votes. Seriously, you have nothing to stand on here. There is zero certainty in a 15-vote gap.


There would be zero certainty at all in a downtime-free Link/Draven match. Link was slashing over a hundred votes an update. A single update could have made the difference in that spread, to the point where I'd argue that outcome would have been much more in doubt than Zelda/Charizard for tons of reasons.

You are being hypocritical.
---
Welcome to the League of Downtime.
#298 | FFDragon | Posted 9/6/2013 7:53:57 AM | message detail
I have Charizard making the finals in my bracket and it's what is keeping me alive in the guru.

The rest can go. <_<
---
If you wake up at a different time, in a different place, could you wake up as a different person? [HERO'S PLUNGE]
http://img.imgcake.com/finegifdy.gif
#299 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 9/6/2013 7:54:36 AM | message detail
Oh wait never mind I see where the 383 came from.

But yeah, claiming that Link/Draven was just as close as Zelda/Zard is really absurd.
---
~War~
#300 | Kinglicious | Posted 9/6/2013 7:55:02 AM | message detail
Pokemon lost a close match if you consider charizard vs Mario close.
---
The King Wang.
Listen up Urinal Cake. I already have something that tells me if I'm too drunk when I pee on it: My friends. - Colbert.