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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1157
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And
yeah, I'll stick with Cloud at 51%~ as a prediction, but there's not a
lot of margin for error on that, obviously. If I'm off with how
sustainable the rallies are or Squirtle's trends are better relative to
the baseline that I expect for Cloud, it could easily be Squirtle with
51%. I can be wrong. But I believe in the general principles that I've set forth. Even right now, this doesn't look like typical morning trends. There's way too much variance; Squirtle's intake is fluctuating up and down like crazy. --- Welcome to the League of Downtime. |
Lightning Strikes posted... Missingno. did have rallies. And they didn't even work! Um... no. Heck, Allen credited Missingno's R1 win to rallying. All I'm saying is at the current rate even a rallyless Squirtle would beat Cloud. At least if these trends keep up. Also, the second part of that post made no sense. I mean, I know what you were saying, but the words are put together in an illogical way. So, if Squirtle doesn't get rallied, Cloud's baseline will slip? Because that's what your post says. If you grasp the meaning of it then this just comes off as being pedantic, but I will edit it if that will make you happy. --- Welcome to the League of Downtime. |
At least Clouds starting to game some percentage again. Not much, but its something. --- http://i.imgur.com/CQVaT6Xl.jpg |
KH,
with respect, most of your posts don't make sense because you're too
busy flinging terminology nobody else uses around to actually construct
an argument. *I* get it, but I've been here for years and get what you
think about this stuff. It's not pedantic, it's actually getting you to
argue your points properly so that there can be an actual discussion. I don't want to come across as harsh here, but it makes it difficult for everyone else in the topic and doesn't do yourself any favours, so help everyone out here. --- Something something something ^Poorly disguised anti-caps sig |
Karma Hunter posted... And yeah, I'll stick with Cloud at 51%~ as a prediction, but there's not a lot of margin for error on that, obviously. If I'm off with how sustainable the rallies are or Squirtle's trends are better relative to the baseline that I expect for Cloud, it could easily be Squirtle with 51%. I can be wrong. Generally with /v/ rallies if it's ever successful it's sustainable. It's not like Reddit where you get something on the front page, gain a huge influx from that and then it just dwindles out the longer as the same people get exposed to it again and again. /v/ threads are popping in and out of the front page with every bump so it's not a "everybody on this board right now will see it" kind of thing that fades out to the same extent. |
lightning-02 posted... Not_Wylvane posted...Also, Mega Man vs Cloud. Who would you take at this point? 1. 5 way poll 2. Yes, they're rallying for Fiora from LoL 3. Yes, Fiora, Captain Falcon, and Mudkip 4. 24 hours 5. GameFAQs is sick of FF7 6. /v/ wants Mudkip to win 7. 4chan DDOSes us every time Mudkip is below 3,000 votes from the lead 8. The vote stuffers favor Cloud at a 2:1 ratio --- "You are insects railing against the heavens. Your actions will change nothing." - Uhai, Fire Emblem 7 |
I
really don't think I've had a problem with making myself understood. I
try to display my thinking as straightforwardly as possible, and I give
people here a lot of credit to understanding it. I'm as prone to the
occasional verbal flub as anyone especially considering that I make a
lot of thoughts publicly known in this topic and can have predictions
either pan out well or blow up in my face. But I'm pretty sure people can tell when either is happening. Like I said, though, whatever makes you happy. --- Welcome to the League of Downtime. |
As far as I'm concerned you aren't a member of Board 8 until you make a prediction that blows up in your face. --- ~War~ |
Kefka > Crono in CBX, this time it can't possibly fail --- Welcome to the League of Downtime. |
I
dunno I think that KH has been very straightforward and understandable
in his posts (whether or not I agree with them). Not sure where the
disconnect is coming from for others. Nice to see a 30 vote cut there by Cloud. If he does it twice in a row that would be nice. --- The storm approaches...ain't got nothin' but time to plan. Graves - Caitlyn - Ezreal // Janna - Alistar - Nami |
And yet I still beat all those Samus > Mario brackets...! --- ~War~ |
OrangeCrush980 posted... lightning-02 posted...Not_Wylvane posted...Also, Mega Man vs Cloud. Who would you take at this point? Captain Falcon to win |
I predicted X>Ryu>Draven can I be a member of B8 now |
BleedingRed posted... I dunno I think that KH has been very straightforward and understandable in his posts (whether or not I agree with them). Not sure where the disconnect is coming from for others. I agree, Lightning strikes just seems sore about his prediction. |
Cloud clearly getting rallied. Seriously though, he did get a notable spike. --- Something something something ^Poorly disguised anti-caps sig |
Nanis23 posted... I predicted X>Ryu>Draven can I be a member of B8 now we are all B8 now --- Welcome to the League of Downtime. |
lightning-02 posted... BleedingRed posted...I dunno I think that KH has been very straightforward and understandable in his posts (whether or not I agree with them). Not sure where the disconnect is coming from for others. I didn't even make a prediction. He flat out contradicted himself twice! I really have no say in this match, my beef is with KH. --- Something something something ^Poorly disguised anti-caps sig |
I
feel like this is where Cloud should start taking over. Squirtle is
still getting massive rallies, but just took a big cut, and then had a
stall to follow up instead of a gain back. Obviously there is still a
lot of time, but I feel as though Cloud should start powering through
the rallying and take over here. --- The storm approaches...ain't got nothin' but time to plan. Graves - Caitlyn - Ezreal // Leona - Alistar - Nami |
also technically I wasn't a part of the board when Kefka/Vercetti happened. Now predicting Frog to break 45% on Samus 'because he never beats anything easily or dies easily the stupid bastard', that is when I became a part of B8. --- ~War~ |
Lightning Strikes posted... Cloud clearly getting rallied. He's been between 88 and 110 for the last half hour, you don't get much more consistent and steady than that. |
At
this rate it will take Cloud about 2 hours to catch up and then we can
put up a new rally without it being considered a spam or something |
Sorry
if I'm coming off as defensive, but I really don't think I contradicted
myself. If I didn't make it clear earlier, I - wait for it - changed my mind.
The rallies for Squirtle seem more robust than I was anticipating, even
relative to the change in trends from the morning vote, and my
prediction of 5-10% needed to be upped considerably (don't know where
I'd place it now... 35-40% chance of winning?). I still think Cloud wins with 51%~, I don't think I've contradicted myself there. --- Welcome to the League of Downtime. |
Based on the last ten minutes Squirtle wins by 182 votes. That's how these things work, right? --- ~War~ |
For
what it's worth I thought Cloud would win, something like 42/40/18. Not
so much playing raw stats but playing percentages. Leon's doing worse
than I expected, but I don't think Squirtle's going to fall below 42 at
this point. So if Cloud's going to win he's gonna need to bury Leon a
good bit more. --- ~War~ |
Squirtle
has actually only left a similar range once in the last hour. He had
one odd 130 vote spike but has otherwise looked even with Cloud, and
showed similar variance. Rallies are happening, but I don't think
they're everything and I suspect Cloud may be getting some too. --- Something something something ^Poorly disguised anti-caps sig |
Okay I'm willing to accept a lot of crazy theories but Cloud getting rallied let's not say things we can't take back --- Welcome to the League of Downtime. |
I'm
surprised how much easier it's been to rally for Squirtle versus Cloud
than Kirby versus Sephiroth. People just really didn't want to go for
Kirby. |
Yeah, Cloud's not getting rallied. Cloud's stuffing. --- ~War~ |
Lightning Strikes posted... Squirtle has actually only left a similar range once in the last hour. He had one odd 130 vote spike but has otherwise looked even with Cloud, and showed similar variance. Rallies are happening, but I don't think they're everything and I suspect Cloud may be getting some too. They're the difference between Squirtle being 200 ahead and 300-400 down and it probably being game over. |
I'll
accept the theory that Cloud's been massively cheating all this time
and he's actually only as strong as Tidus before I accept a theory of Cloud getting rallies --- Welcome to the League of Downtime. |
lightning-02 posted... Lightning Strikes posted...Squirtle has actually only left a similar range once in the last hour. He had one odd 130 vote spike but has otherwise looked even with Cloud, and showed similar variance. Rallies are happening, but I don't think they're everything and I suspect Cloud may be getting some too. This. They won't last though. At least, I don't think they will. It would be really weird if the rallies somehow kept Squirtle in this when he's being rallied hard right now and still can't really stay above 200. --- The storm approaches...ain't got nothin' but time to plan. Graves - Caitlyn - Ezreal // Leona - Alistar - Nami |
How do you think Bacon discovered Crono's cheating in 2002? He clearly noticed something odd in Cloud/Mario too late to remove Cloud's votes. --- ~War~ |
Cloud the biggest cheater for the past 10 year? I'm in. --- i'll do rydia -Dante |
With
every match that rallying is involved,im amazed again and again just
how much people behavior can change depending on the community they are
in Kanz was right about it being a "social test" or whatever he called it.... The results clearly show that the MOBA community is indeed the worst in the world |
Tempted to delete both rally threads and see what happens |
Karma Hunter posted... Okay I'm willing to accept a lot of crazy theories but Cloud getting rallied let's not say things we can't take back Just saying, his trends have shown similar variance to Squirtle's! Also Cloud has a Reddit rally which Squirtle does not. Unfortunately for Cloud, the FF subreddit is only about a tenth of the size of the Pokémon one. It'll get him a few hundred votes max. --- Something something something ^Poorly disguised anti-caps sig |
Squirtle's
rally, even though he's basically only stalling right now, is as good
as it's been all match. The higher our vote intake is, the harder it is
to affect things with a rally. Squirtle's natural trends can only do so
much on their own, without the rally Cloud would be making gains right
now instead of stalls. --- Welcome to the League of Downtime. |
If squirtle is getting rallied hard then that is one long rally. --- The King Wang. Listen up Urinal Cake. I already have something that tells me if I'm too drunk when I pee on it: My friends. - Colbert. |
lightning-02 posted... Tempted to delete both rally threads and see what happens Would be an interesting experiment to see just how much they are affecting the match. I'm sure that people will make more anyway. --- The storm approaches...ain't got nothin' but time to plan. Graves - Caitlyn - Ezreal // Leona - Alistar - Nami |
How do you think Bacon discovered Crono's cheating in 2002? He clearly noticed something odd in Cloud/Mario too late to remove Cloud's votes. CJayC discovered cheating in Mario/Crono in 2002, there was none in Mario/Cloud which caused the board to implode worse than it did with Draven --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 137/198 Today's Pick: Cloud Strife |
lightning-02 posted... Tempted to delete both rally threads and see what happens Do it! It'd be good data one way or the other. Neither theory can be conclusively proven at the moment, in the end we only have circumstantial evidence. --- Welcome to the League of Downtime. |
charmander6000 posted... How do you think Bacon discovered Crono's cheating in 2002? Ahem, hence the noticed something off in Cloud/Mario too late...! --- ~War~ |
Woke up this morning, my reaction: lol Cloud --- Call me Mega, Megaman, X, or any variation/combination of the previously stated names. Official Liu Kang of the PS3 Mortal Kombat board. |
FranzyvonKarma posted... charmander6000 posted...How do you think Bacon discovered Crono's cheating in 2002? Everyone and their sister knows that Mario cheated in that match and I have no idea how it was allowed to slip through. Probably because it was Mario. --- The storm approaches...ain't got nothin' but time to plan. Graves - Caitlyn - Ezreal // Leona - Alistar - Nami |
I do not have a sister so she knows no such thing. --- ~War~ |
What
other matches had weird trends or time extensions that made the results
seem shifty? I thought Mario won because of Sunshine being announced
that day. --- Brawl FC - 1332 8069 6690 http://i.imgur.com/OZ9aS.png |
Squirtle back above 230 gg --- ~War~ |
Actually,lightning I don't understand your motive here You are not pro-Pokemon and Allen already admitted he think rallies are fun just a few hours ago,what are you trying to prove by letting Squirtle beat Cloud? |
Some men just want to watch the world rally. --- Welcome to the League of Downtime. |
GloryChaos posted... What other matches had weird trends or time extensions that made the results seem shifty? I thought Mario won because of Sunshine being announced that day. Mario should have still lost, but was getting heavy rallies and had very weird voting trends near the end of the match. Also lightning-02 wanted me to say that he's deleting the rally threads after the 9:36 update -- so they should be gone now. --- The storm approaches...ain't got nothin' but time to plan. Graves - Caitlyn - Ezreal // Leona - Alistar - Nami |
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