Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1156

#401 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/5/2013 11:12:53 PM | message detail
Cloud would like to post a 53% hour here to keep pace with Crono/Vincent.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#402 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/5/2013 11:14:32 PM | message detail
Charizard losing to Mega Man/Zero is much worse, by a lot. Pikachu could get a serious rally, enough to overwhelm the leech gap. Charizard losing with that same rally power behind him would be pathetic.
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Welcome to the League of Downtime.
#403 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/5/2013 11:15:12 PM | message detail
The targets (to keep pace with Crono/Vincent 2007):

3 | 53%
4 | 54%
5 | 62%
6 | 64%
7 | 61%
8 | 58%
9 | 56%
10 | 55%
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#404 | xp1337 | Posted 9/5/2013 11:15:54 PM | message detail
Yeah, it's got to be Charizard.

I mean, forget the Zelda match. That would be the ultimate fraud performance.
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GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#405 | UberPyro64 | Posted 9/5/2013 11:16:38 PM | message detail
Squirtle is going back up somewhat.

And Cloud a bit down.
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#406 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/5/2013 11:18:41 PM | message detail
Kirby was going up around here, too. Natural votes can start to get overwhelmed by rally power. Just a question of how much there is.
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#407 | Denzokuken | Posted 9/5/2013 11:19:01 PM | message detail
Come on Cloud... it will be normal for Squirtle to continue gaining for a while yet, but hopefully the match follows Seph/Kirby trends. It will be harder for him to break past rallied Pokemon though.
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#408 | GloriousSweater | Posted 9/5/2013 11:20:40 PM | message detail
I dunno. We still have no idea where (and how severely) the SFF will fall in Pikachu/Blue. Pikachu could barely come out ahead or the rat could just crush. In MM/Zero, we have the general belief that Mega Man could siphon a ton of votes from Zero if he needed to make it close. If Charizard loses in something like a 45/45/10 and Sora loses in a 38/37/25, I'd argue that Sora would look worse.
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#409 | Achromatic | Posted 9/5/2013 11:21:29 PM | message detail
Squirtle is starting to tune up the band here.
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#410 | UberPyro64 | Posted 9/5/2013 11:21:38 PM | message detail
oooh Squirtle is having a vote serge!

Take that Cloud!
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#411 | tennisboy213 | Posted 9/5/2013 11:21:52 PM | message detail
Biggest lead of the match
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POKEFEAR
#412 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 9/5/2013 11:22:05 PM | message detail
How bad Charizard looks also depends on Zero. Part of the reason Charizard has such a good shot at winning is because Zero isn't supposed to fold. If Zero goes out and puts up 8% or something ridiculously low, Charizard can still look okay with a close loss to Mega Man.
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#413 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/5/2013 11:23:57 PM | message detail
6 pages? Why are people getting so worked up over it?
We have got so much examples of characters leading over FFVII early and then losing by alot

Give Squirtle 500 lead here,and Cloud still got this
#414 | xp1337 | Posted 9/5/2013 11:24:02 PM | message detail
Well, okay, in full disclosure I'm working off the premise that Zero doesn't fold. If Zero does fold and Blue holds up then things might be different!
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#415 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/5/2013 11:26:56 PM | message detail
While it still looks to be rallies (elevated votes and such), I won't rule out Squirtle doing better naturally as we get further away from the hardcore voting crowd and his STF starting to have a much greater effect. Still looks really similar to Seph/Kirby, so I'll be generous to Squirtle and give him a 10% chance of winning the match outright.
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#416 | GloriousSweater | Posted 9/5/2013 11:27:15 PM | message detail
Yep, we really have to look at Sora/Charizard's percentages before we can judge who was more impressive/disappointing. It just seems that in terms of absolute percentage, I find it almost impossible to picture Charizard NOT finishing above 40%, which means Mega Man would have to put a real hurting on Zero to contend. Even with an equally favorable setup (hell, perhaps a more favorable one), it's still easier to imagine Sora dipping below that 40% mark. Guess Pokemon has just looked that scary.
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#417 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/5/2013 11:30:20 PM | message detail
on the other hand, Sephiroth was only 94 votes back at this point, Cloud's 254 back
we'll see what happens, I guess
#418 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 9/5/2013 11:30:26 PM | message detail
So there are rallies here, then? If that's the case I think Cloud can pull it off.

I'm really hoping Mega Man pulls it off, but iirc he didn't hold up too well against Zero last time.
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#419 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/5/2013 11:31:11 PM | message detail
Are there Squirtle rallies going on? I can't identify them from the trends so far. Looks normal with random variation.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
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#420 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/5/2013 11:31:23 PM | message detail
Though to be honest,a character claiming to be the second strongest in the site has no reason to be behind a newcomer for 3 hours

If there is going to be another contest and the term "noble nine" it will be so stupid
There is nothing noble about them anymore
You know,of all the eliminated NN aside from Link,Crono looked the best
#421 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/5/2013 11:32:28 PM | message detail
Squirtle's been rallied more. They've been damn near insatiable. I counted ten rallies before I got bored. They're just now starting to die down a bit but they've doubtlessly had an effect.
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#422 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/5/2013 11:33:17 PM | message detail
So he's been rallied the whole time, explaining why it's invisible in the trends. Okay. In that case, we may yet have hope for reenacting Crono/Vincent! Okay.....not that much hope.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#423 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/5/2013 11:33:27 PM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Though to be honest,a character claiming to be the second strongest in the site has no reason to be behind a newcomer for 3 hours

If there is going to be another contest and the term "noble nine" it will be so stupid
There is nothing noble about them anymore
You know,of all the eliminated NN aside from Link,Crono looked the best


relative to expectations, you mean
unless you're seriously entertaining Crono>Mario....!
#424 | Achromatic | Posted 9/5/2013 11:33:42 PM | message detail
Squirtle has a 180~ lead on Kirby's lead so yeah this is a bit bulkier and I imagine it won't be shredded as easily.

I picked Squirtle in this one cause 'why not' so it should be good!
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And I would do anything for bets, but I won't do that! No I won't do that!
I am Sir Chris, the Knight that says NICK!!!
#425 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/5/2013 11:35:31 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
Nanis23 posted...
Though to be honest,a character claiming to be the second strongest in the site has no reason to be behind a newcomer for 3 hours

If there is going to be another contest and the term "noble nine" it will be so stupid
There is nothing noble about them anymore
You know,of all the eliminated NN aside from Link,Crono looked the best


relative to expectations, you mean
unless you're seriously entertaining Crono>Mario....!


Hm,yes
You can also say "at least Crono got an excuse"
The "anchors" Mario and Sonic got are nothing like what dragged down Crono
And Cloud has no excuse here.at all
#426 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/5/2013 11:38:18 PM | message detail
Preliminary upper tier strength ranking. My best attempt, anyways!

God Tier:
Link
Reddit

High Elite Tier:
Snake
Samus
Mario
Mega Man

Low Elite Tier:
Mega Man X
Cloud
Crono
Sephiroth
Squall
Zelda
Goddamn Pokemon

Near-Elite Tier:
Luigi
Auron
Sonic
Tifa - Subject to change. Her opponents thus far suck or got SFFed.
Big Boss
Kirby
Ganondorf/Yoshi? - No good reads on them this time at all.
Bowser - Because having no idea where you stand is better than his terrible performance on The Boss.

LOL Vincent and I'm fully expecting LOL Sora even if he wins.
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#427 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 9/5/2013 11:38:24 PM | message detail
So is anyone actually voting for Sora?

Or put another way, is there anyone that doesn't want to see Sora thoroughly embarrass himself next match by losing to Pikachu?

Don't let me down, board vote!
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#428 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/5/2013 11:38:53 PM | message detail
About the "rallies"
The reddit rally for Squirtle got more downvotes than upvotes,it obviously doesn't help too much

It still kills me just how much LoL fans care about this contest compared to everyone else
#429 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 9/5/2013 11:40:09 PM | message detail
Ugh, I changed my Expert challenge all around after Vivi, and then welched on my half my changes.

Of course, it's now looking like I changed back the wrong matches. I'm going to have about 300 points after this round.
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The artist formerly known as greatone10.
#430 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/5/2013 11:40:30 PM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
About the "rallies"
The reddit rally for Squirtle got more downvotes than upvotes,it obviously doesn't help too much

It still kills me just how much LoL fans care about this contest compared to everyone else


Rule of vocal minority. Most just click through and vote without bothering to upvote or downvote.

There were also a LOT more rallies there at one point before they all got deleted for spamming.
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#431 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/5/2013 11:41:50 PM | message detail
I may or may not be downvoting reddit rallies multiple times in almost every Pokemon match.

:)
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#432 | GloriousSweater | Posted 9/5/2013 11:42:30 PM | message detail
It's funny to think that simply finding a way to include the PotD throughout the site (if we really ARE getting more traffic than we did in 2006-2008) would kill any rally like Draven's. For all the feverish involvement of Reddit and the LoL forums, it wouldn't have mattered if matches were still pulling in 140,000 votes.
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#433 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/5/2013 11:44:18 PM | message detail
GloriousSweater posted...
It's funny to think that simply finding a way to include the PotD throughout the site (if we really ARE getting more traffic than we did in 2006-2008) would kill any rally like Draven's. For all the feverish involvement of Reddit and the LoL forums, it wouldn't have mattered if matches were still pulling in 140,000 votes.

I assume you'll sign my petition, then?

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/7-site-suggestions/67111376
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[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
#434 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 9/5/2013 11:45:04 PM | message detail
ATTN Allen please put poll banners up (maybe you can click to kill them for the day so they don't get too annoying)
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I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword
#435 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/5/2013 11:45:05 PM | message detail
GloriousSweater posted...
It's funny to think that simply finding a way to include the PotD throughout the site (if we really ARE getting more traffic than we did in 2006-2008) would kill any rally like Draven's. For all the feverish involvement of Reddit and the LoL forums, it wouldn't have mattered if matches were still pulling in 140,000 votes.


even assuming that SBAllen isn't lying his ass off about daily traffic (.1% chance of that happening) he probably wouldn't implement it and then complain about low votals
#436 | spooky96 | Posted 9/5/2013 11:45:48 PM | message detail
Furious Fura posted...
I have squirtle in my expert challenge

I'm losing my spot on the leaderboard aren't I?


Yes. Cloud will make a push later.
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#437 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/5/2013 11:46:08 PM | message detail
GloriousSweater posted...
It's funny to think that simply finding a way to include the PotD throughout the site (if we really ARE getting more traffic than we did in 2006-2008) would kill any rally like Draven's. For all the feverish involvement of Reddit and the LoL forums, it wouldn't have mattered if matches were still pulling in 140,000 votes.


If Allen would simply do that, we could probably average like 100000 votes for our non-contest polls if he is telling the truth about site traffic being even higher than it was 5 years ago.
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#438 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 9/5/2013 11:48:25 PM | message detail
Doing it for regular polls might be annoying
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I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword
#439 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/5/2013 11:50:07 PM | message detail
It would definitely be possible for the PotD to be displayed on all pages of the site only when you are not logged into an account. That way, you won't get any complaints from registered users about the PotD being on every page of the site.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#440 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 9/5/2013 11:54:48 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
It would definitely be possible for the PotD to be displayed on all pages of the site only when you are not logged into an account. That way, you won't get any complaints from registered users about the PotD being on every page of the site.


All we really need is a link to the poll on more pages, since you can vote from the poll now. It's not like we need the voting buttons and match pic(s) to be displayed.
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#441 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/5/2013 11:57:17 PM | message detail
Voting in the poll from the poll results page only applies to the contest matches. When we go back to having non-contest polls again, we'll have to vote from the home page again. The non-contest polls do not allow you to vote in the poll from the poll results page.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#442 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/6/2013 12:00:59 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Nanis23 posted...
About the "rallies"
The reddit rally for Squirtle got more downvotes than upvotes,it obviously doesn't help too much

It still kills me just how much LoL fans care about this contest compared to everyone else


Rule of vocal minority. Most just click through and vote without bothering to upvote or downvote.

There were also a LOT more rallies there at one point before they all got deleted for spamming.


Well but by LoL rallies,there is nothing like vocal minority,you see them swarming like crazy and posting comments and upvotes and what not
Try to rally in /vp/,and this is what you get

why the **** should I care about some gamefaqs poll? Why are you even visiting the site?


To be honest? I have to side with /vp/ here...if I wasn't part of Gamefaqs,I would consider it as annoying spam
#443 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/6/2013 12:04:46 AM | message detail
Well, obviously the LoL rallies are in a completely different level. But this is still much more than Kirby was getting last night. Kirby had one guy passively bumping a rally all night. This is a multi-platform rally for a Pokemon all over the place, which is ironically the thing that makes me have the least faith in Squirtle. If he was doing this with no rallies he'd be a really good bet to win the match. As it is it looks like he's just gonna have a closer version of Seph/Kirby.
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Welcome to the League of Downtime.
#444 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/6/2013 12:07:11 AM | message detail
AxemRedRanger posted...
I assume you'll sign my petition, then?

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/7-site-suggestions/67111376


I'd like to suggest the idea of putting the link in your sig so you won't have to spam the link so often.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#445 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/6/2013 12:12:37 AM | message detail | (edited)
Im not sure..I searched in most possible places to rally for Pokemon and only noticed two failed rallies,in reddit and vp
Google doesn't help too much either,as the only result is this-
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/932981-final-fantasy-xv/67174876
And it found another in Pokemon X board,but it got deleted...


Anyway,looks like Cloud is making a comeback...after a long stall he finally starts cutting,this is what usually happens
#446 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/6/2013 12:13:18 AM | message detail
The votals for this match have slowly fallen behind the Kirby match. There were several rallies on reddit but most are deleted now and none of the /v/ or /vp/ rallies really caught on from what I could see. I'm thinking that one relentless Kirby guy probably was indeed more effective than this stuff. What other sites have you seen people rallying?
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[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
#447 | tennisboy213 | Posted 9/6/2013 12:13:45 AM | message detail
This is as close as Cloud's been in over 2 hours.
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POKEFEAR
#448 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/6/2013 12:17:19 AM | message detail
Reddit posts being deleted...?
Great..we are dealing here with the most ****ed up site in the world...all subreddits aside from the LoL one deletes rally topics while the LoL rally stays up for 6 hours
Also add the fact that someone bribed people in the LoL forum to vote for Draven and he actually gave out 4 prepaid cards (40$ in value) and we are facing against very fair odds
#449 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/6/2013 12:18:32 AM | message detail
Squirtle by the Hour on Cloud:

1:00 | 52.36%
2:00 | 49.60%
3:00 | 50.53%

Impressive 3rd hour for Squirtle. I didn't think he had another hourly win in him. Under 200 votes now though.
---
Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#450 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 9/6/2013 12:21:30 AM | message detail
There you go Cloud
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I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword