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AlecTrevelyan006 posted...

creativename posted...

He did good in the bonus poll? In a neutral 24 hour match he probably would have put 53%ish on Crono - a Crono that was virtually equal with Pikachu. That's not good!!

Um, didn't Mario just put up 53% on Crono with Mega Man in the poll? You think he'd do 53% in a neutral 1v1 24 hour match?

X overlap as a quasi-Nintendo entity going 60/40 to Mario and adjusting for 24 hours (Crono has one of the biggest night/day divides in the contest) yields a 53/47 result. If you assume X is a 'pure' Nintendo character with 70/30 overlap, it yields 55/45 instead.
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Welcome to the League of Downtime.

AlecTrevelyan006 posted...

Um, didn't Mario just put up 53% on Crono with Mega Man in the poll? You think he'd do 53% in a neutral 1v1 24 hour match?

KH has gone over this like 20 times :) But yes.

The day/night difference for Crono is among the most extreme we have. 53% is a pretty good estimate.
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http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3297

Cloud once nearly doubled Mewtwo despite Squall and Sora. Five years later, he's (currently) losing to Squirtle with no handicaps.

The times, they are a-changin'.
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Karma Hunter posted...

AlecTrevelyan006 posted...

creativename posted...

He did good in the bonus poll? In a neutral 24 hour match he probably would have put 53%ish on Crono - a Crono that was virtually equal with Pikachu. That's not good!!

Um, didn't Mario just put up 53% on Crono with Mega Man in the poll? You think he'd do 53% in a neutral 1v1 24 hour match?

X overlap as a quasi-Nintendo entity going 60/40 to Mario and adjusting for 24 hours (Crono has one of the biggest night/day divides in the contest) yields a 53/47 result. If you assume X is a 'pure' Nintendo character with 70/30 overlap, it yields 55/45 instead.

Whoops, completely forgot it was a 12 hour match, that explains that.
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Karma Hunter posted...

X overlap as a quasi-Nintendo entity going 60/40 to Mario and adjusting for 24 hours (Crono has one of the biggest night/day divides in the contest) yields a 53/47 result. If you assume X is a 'pure' Nintendo character with 70/30 overlap, it yields 55/45 instead.

Yeah and there's just no way the overlap is anything like 70/30. That would be shocking.
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HaRRicH posted...

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3297

Cloud once nearly doubled Mewtwo despite Squall and Sora. Five years later, he's (currently) losing to Squirtle with no handicaps.

The times, they are a-changin'.

Lol
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Yup, 53/47 sounds good.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3297

Cloud once nearly doubled Mewtwo despite Squall and Sora. Five years later, he's (currently) losing to Squirtle with no handicaps.

The times, they are a-changin'.

Damn, look how healthy those votals are. We need those back somehow

BleedingRed posted...

Team Rocket Elite posted...

A general rule doesn't apply to every specific case. You are right that the main character of a game generally has a fair advantage over everyone else in the game. However, we already know FF7 is an exception since Sephiroth was very close to Cloud in 2003.

It applies in this case. You can see it in any time they've been in a poll together. Anyone can make baseless accusations of things pre-contest era, but Cloud has always been stronger and has absolutely crushed Sephiroth in any poll they've shared. I don't buy KH being the difference between which character is more popular.

creativename posted...

Well if Sora is there Cloud is getting plain thrashed by Snake (assuming Cloud wins this match).

Why would this be the case when Snake could barely eek out a win against Cloud with Sephiroth in the poll? It'll hurt Cloud, but Cloud could still easily win that match.

Any time? Like this?:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/1367
Cloud was barely ahead of Sephiroth in 2003. Nothing close to absolutely crushing him.
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Based on Crono/Vincent 2007, Cloud wins with 56.02% on Squirtle.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.

So right now, Mario > Samus indirectly seems very tough. I won't completely rule it out because Samus has faced complete question marks for a lot of her matches but... tough. Mario > Samus indirectly means Crono should probably be the favorite in a 1v1 Samus night match, which would floor me.
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Yeah, I'm not touching that one. I've been chomping at the bit to take Crono > Sephiroth for 8 years, but not touching that Samus upset.
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Karma Hunter posted...

So right now, Mario > Samus indirectly seems very tough. I won't completely rule it out because Samus has faced complete question marks for a lot of her matches but... tough. Mario > Samus indirectly means Crono should probably be the favorite in a 1v1 Samus night match, which would floor me.

everyone is at the bottom of the Noble Nine though ;)

Come on, Cloud, make those Crono/Vincent trends come true! Convince me you can still beat Mewtwo with Squall and Sora in the poll! Cloud/Sephiroth LFF turns a 56/44 match into a 50/50 match, and I'm not convinced Squall + Sora is worse than Sephiroth, so if you can get 56% today on Squirtle I can still believe!
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.

Don't give up Squirtle! We need another upset!
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I don't think Cloud will exceed much beyond 51-52%. Even if he could naturally, I have to believe these stacked pictures are going to show a more pronounced effect as the match goes on.
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Welcome to the League of Downtime.

As if this contest hasn't catered to Board 8 enough with the Noble Nine, 8-seeds, and bonus matches...imagine a contest final consisting of our past NRT-rallies: Mewtwo VS Squirtle VS Charizard. It's more possible now than any of us could have imagined when we first rallied them...!
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Those were all our NRT picks?

Okay, if I ever win the Guru, we're not nominating Crono anymore. We're nominating Link.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
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Yeah there's no way he's getting close to 56%.

53% would be a good result for him. I mean it seems bad for someone with Cloud's history to be lucky to break 53% on Squirtle, but this is PokeFAQs after all.
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red sox 777 posted...

Those were all our NRT picks?

Okay, if I ever win the Guru, we're not nominating Crono anymore. We're nominating Link.

People would rebel against you. You'd be a pariah!
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it makes me very sad seeing what my favorite character has been reduced to

not even a FFVII remake is going to get him near what he once was
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I would nominate Link. It's the contest Board 8 deserves!
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squirtle really, really does not want to be under 250 votes. seems to be stalling around that line for a while now.
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it's still ZeldaFAQs first and foremost! man, that Link performance just seems all the more unreal after seeing Cloud, Seph, and even Snake.
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http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lxkdr0uNc91qlu5jao1_r1_400.gif

the greatest performance in contest history
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I'd love to see an all-Pokemon final, but we all know Draven is gonna ruin it, and I don't see Squirtle winning this match if he can't increase his lead.
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"The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima
SuperNiceDog: Bracket: Good, Taste: Bad

done with these contests. any pokemon can win. except jigglypuff which is the only one worth voting for
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This match is surprisingly close in North America. Normally we'd expect to see Cloud dominating Europe and losing badly in North America at this point, but he's already close in NA.....and not that far ahead in Europe.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.

From: swirIdude | Posted: 9/6/2013 1:44:06 AM | #376

I'd love to see an all-Pokemon final, but we all know Draven is gonna ruin it, and I don't see Squirtle winning this match if he can't increase his lead.

well one of Squirtle or Pikachu has to lose for it to be even remotely possible anyway. i always thought Pikachu had a better shot at winning this round.
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I'm at school right now folks, will Cloud make a push later or he's done?
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A sig.

spooky96 posted...

I'm at school right now folks, will Cloud make a push later or he's done?

He better be done. We need Squirty to take his spot in the final 9.
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Xuxon posted...

From: swirIdude | Posted: 9/6/2013 1:44:06 AM | #376

I'd love to see an all-Pokemon final, but we all know Draven is gonna ruin it, and I don't see Squirtle winning this match if he can't increase his lead.

well one of Squirtle or Pikachu has to lose for it to be even remotely possible anyway. i always thought Pikachu had a better shot at winning this round.

If Sora loses to Pikachu with Blue in the poll, he should retire.
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SuperNiceDog: Bracket: Good, Taste: Bad

spooky96 posted...

I'm at school right now folks, will Cloud make a push later or he's done?

If this match runs anything like the Seph/Kirby match (and it probably will), Squirtle will collapse around the TDZ and Cloud will run with it until the end of the match tomorrow night.
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This match is definitely on track to break 50000 votes and that's after yesterday's match failed to break 47000 votes.
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Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!

I believe yoblazer's original rendition of what should happen if Sora loses was then good f***ing lord retire his ass
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Welcome to the League of Downtime.

Square fans, ready to vote for Pikachu tomorrow? I know I am!
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.

Cloud is testing into Squirtle's lead. This is over.
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I'm voting Blue. Sora and Pikachu both suck.
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A sig.

Pikachu probably hurts Snake more than Cloud too. They share the SSB and FFVII-hate fanbases.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.

But Pikachu and Cloud share RPG fan base. Hate fan base isn't huge anyways.
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A sig.

Pikachu's not gonna save Cloud!

It's just gonna have him ending up in third!
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swirIdude posted...

Xuxon posted...

From: swirIdude | Posted: 9/6/2013 1:44:06 AM | #376

I'd love to see an all-Pokemon final, but we all know Draven is gonna ruin it, and I don't see Squirtle winning this match if he can't increase his lead.

well one of Squirtle or Pikachu has to lose for it to be even remotely possible anyway. i always thought Pikachu had a better shot at winning this round.

If Sora loses to Pikachu with Blue in the poll, he should retire.

so when he beats Pikachu but loses to Blue...?


j/k

So if Gamefaqs votes split 60/30/10 for Cloud/L-Block/Draven, and rally votes split 60/30/10 for Draven/L-Block/Cloud........that's not too far from a 33/33/33 split.

Replace Cloud with Snake if you like, I'm using Cloud because it makes me feel happier.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.

Squirtle by the Hour on Cloud:

1:00 | 52.36%
2:00 | 49.60%

Cloud already has won an hour.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.

After the last match, I have renewed hope in Cloud making it if Pikachu is the third entrant. Yesterday was Snake's first match in which he just looked like an "ordinary" Noble 9er and not some monster that put up performances on par with (or exceeding) Link's. Snake and Pikachu will definitely split the exceptionally popular "okay I hate FFVII so let me vote for the other guy" voting bloc, and I still think their Brawl overlap will hurt both.

Of course, it's still on Sora to go out there and wow us with what would undoubtedly be one of the most embarrassing performances in contest history.

Believe.
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Based on Crono/Vincent 2007, Cloud wins with 55.93% on Squirtle.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.

Cloud looks good here. Pic factor should still be more pronounced later but it'd have to deviate greatly from Seph/Kirby for him to drop this. Not like that match didn't have some serious STF as well.
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Sora losing to Pikachu/Blue or Charizard losing to Mega Man/Zero, which is worse

Squirtle went up by 0.5. That's neat.
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I have squirtle in my expert challenge

I'm losing my spot on the leaderboard aren't I?
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/ssbsb/