Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1156

#301 | creativename | Posted 9/5/2013 9:46:43 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Using a constant Alucard puts Cloud above Sephiroth in 2002 without taking any Link/Mario SFF into account.

That says almost nothing though.

As I already went over, the Kingdom Hearts boost was very obviously much more favorable to Cloud, and despite that Seph was almost even with him after - that pretty much tells the entire story. There really, really should not be a debate about this.

And as someone else said, anyone familiar with the FF7 fanbase from the late 90's knew that Sephiroth was the strongest and most popular FF7 character. Anyone who thinks otherwise was simply not connected with the fanbase of the era.
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#302 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/5/2013 9:48:35 PM | message detail
TheCodeisBosco posted...
Team Rocket Elite posted...
GloriousSweater posted...
When I was new here in 2002 and relatively unfamiliar with Final Fantasy, "Sephiroth" was the one name/contest entrant that everyone tossed around more than Cloud. Seph was DEFINITELY the pre-contest favorite to win the contest, and a reputation like that doesn't just emanate from thin air. He almost surely must have been the most popular FF character from 1998-2001. I just heard so much about him.

Kinda funny because Ganondorf pretty much kicks his ass in every way imaginable, and this is coming from a guy who likes Seph.


No, Mario was the pre-contest favourite:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/odds.html
Sephiroth was above Cloud, though. However, it was a weighted system to Cloud was probably hurt from sharing a division with Mario.


Wow! This is an amazing time capsule. Thank you for posting this, TRE.

Shocked to see Dante so high. He always struck me as being the kind of guy whose popularity would take casuals by surprise.

Devil May Cry had only just come out the year before. Dante has always gotten pretty good seeding in contests (Including a 1 seed coming off of DMC3 in 2005!) too. The guy has a fairly bad board vote. I think it's fair to say Dante is probably fairly popular among casuals. Would certainly be one reason why he did so abysmally this year!
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#303 | ZFS | Posted 9/5/2013 9:48:48 PM | message detail
Sephiroth > Cloud in the late 90s, early 00s is certainly true. Not sure why KH flipped it, but Sephiroth was the FF guy once FFVII came out.
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#304 | Wanglicious | Posted 9/5/2013 9:51:54 PM | message detail
aw. Cloud still at over 40%.
Squirtle still doin' well though.
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#305 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/5/2013 9:56:53 PM | message detail
Cut #2.
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#306 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/5/2013 9:57:51 PM | message detail
I wonder if Squirtle will be able to exceed Missingno's peak lead on Squall. This is arguably as inflated as he'll get.
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#307 | BleedingRed | Posted 9/5/2013 9:59:08 PM | message detail
ZFS posted...
Sephiroth > Cloud in the late 90s, early 00s is certainly true. Not sure why KH flipped it, but Sephiroth was the FF guy once FFVII came out.


It's really not. You have maybe a vocal userbase that really liked Seph, but the majority of people that played the game prefer, and always preferred, Cloud.
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#308 | creativename | Posted 9/5/2013 9:59:28 PM | message detail
ZFS posted...
Sephiroth > Cloud in the late 90s, early 00s is certainly true. Not sure why KH flipped it, but Sephiroth was the FF guy once FFVII came out.

It flipped because of their roles in KH.

Cloud and Squall had very, very significant roles in that game.

Seph was just an optional boss fight. Now the type of people who come to GameFAQs would be looking for just that thing (and that's why it should have always been obvious Vincent would be very strong despite being optional), which is why Seph still boosted despite his minimal role.

But Cloud's role was so much bigger. Hence him and Squall boosting so much, whereas Seph's boost was more temperate.
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#309 | ZFS | Posted 9/5/2013 9:59:33 PM | message detail
This is some show for Cloud, though. Even if he wins, he's struggling with Squirtle. This guy used to be the second strongest character in these things, and kept Link under 55%. What a fall.
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#310 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/5/2013 10:01:16 PM | message detail
Eh, random Pokemon seem to be Noble Nine level now. I doubt Link/Cloud reaches any too ridiculous percentage these days. Snake isn't 100% safe against Cloud even if Cloud scrapes by here.
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#311 | creativename | Posted 9/5/2013 10:01:36 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
I wonder if Squirtle will be able to exceed Missingno's peak lead on Squall. This is arguably as inflated as he'll get.

Well as you went over with Kirby/Seph, if the rallies continue Squirtle may actually end up having a small edge overnight.
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#312 | Lopen | Posted 9/5/2013 10:01:48 PM | message detail
So if you put these percentages as legit and assume Cloud didn't drop whereabouts does this put Dante and Zidane
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#313 | Wanglicious | Posted 9/5/2013 10:03:17 PM | message detail
and if Zidane is that low then Vivi > Crono i can deal with this.
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#314 | NateRose89 | Posted 9/5/2013 10:03:21 PM | message detail
ZFS posted...
This is some show for Cloud, though. Even if he wins, he's struggling with Squirtle. This guy used to be the second strongest character in these things, and kept Link under 55%. What a fall.


90% of GameFaqs is now 13 year olds whose first RPG was Final Fantasy XIII... of course Cloud's popularity will drop.
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#315 | ZFS | Posted 9/5/2013 10:03:44 PM | message detail
Eh, I don't think so. This isn't an anomaly for Cloud - he's looked bad all contest. Not gonna give him a pass because of Pokemon. This is bottom NN level at best, really, but I wouldn't put Squirtle that high, anyway.
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#316 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/5/2013 10:03:56 PM | message detail
NateRose89 posted...
90% of GameFaqs is now 13 year olds whose first RPG was Final Fantasy XIII... of course Cloud's popularity will drop.


joke post right
#317 | creativename | Posted 9/5/2013 10:04:22 PM | message detail
ZFS posted...
This is some show for Cloud, though. Even if he wins, he's struggling with Squirtle. This guy used to be the second strongest character in these things, and kept Link under 55%. What a fall.

It was expected he'd struggle with Squirtle, though.

Noble Niners have been looking like ass left and right. Even Link looked to be his weakest ever until Draven caused GameFAQs to unite behind him, ironically making him the strongest Link ever.

The field has just narrowed, and with low vote totals and random rallied character will really distort percentages.

Also the Pokehorde is not to be underestimated. They are truly taking over the site.
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#318 | BleedingRed | Posted 9/5/2013 10:04:25 PM | message detail
ZFS posted...
This is some show for Cloud, though. Even if he wins, he's struggling with Squirtle. This guy used to be the second strongest character in these things, and kept Link under 55%. What a fall.


It's not really the same. There are rallies everywhere and a userbase that is frequenting the site right now that wouldn't normally be. I mean, by that vein of thinking you could say it was some show for Link when he lost to Draven.
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#319 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/5/2013 10:04:35 PM | message detail
Lopen posted...
So if you put these percentages as legit and assume Cloud didn't drop whereabouts does this put Dante and Zidane


Oh man, real high.

Like Zidane being a near-elite and Dante beating up on a lot of the Noble Nine high.
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#320 | Acerac | Posted 9/5/2013 10:05:57 PM | message detail
BleedingRed posted...
ZFS posted...
Sephiroth > Cloud in the late 90s, early 00s is certainly true. Not sure why KH flipped it, but Sephiroth was the FF guy once FFVII came out.


It's really not. You have maybe a vocal userbase that really liked Seph, but the majority of people that played the game prefer, and always preferred, Cloud.


I like how all the veterans are giving you evidence to the contrary and you don't even try to refute it.
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#321 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/5/2013 10:06:00 PM | message detail
ZFS posted...
Eh, I don't think so. This isn't an anomaly for Cloud - he's looked bad all contest. Not gonna give him a pass because of Pokemon. This is bottom NN level at best, really, but I wouldn't put Squirtle that high, anyway.


As much as I'd like Snake to blow Cloud out of the water I don't expect it'll be quite that easy. Though I guess that'll get people calling for Snake's head next until he has to prove himself the next round.
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#322 | Lopen | Posted 9/5/2013 10:06:26 PM | message detail
Sounds good to me. Squirtle is just too strong, guys.
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#323 | creativename | Posted 9/5/2013 10:07:29 PM | message detail
NateRose89 posted...
90% of GameFaqs is now 13 year olds whose first RPG was Final Fantasy XIII... of course Cloud's popularity will drop.

I know you're probably joking, but it's funny because most of this site is closer to 31 than 13. Hell, the average age is probably closer to 31 than 18!

ZFS posted...
Eh, I don't think so. This isn't an anomaly for Cloud - he's looked bad all contest. Not gonna give him a pass because of Pokemon. This is bottom NN level at best, really, but I wouldn't put Squirtle that high, anyway.

But everyone has been calling every NNer bottom of the NN! Like I've said before, they can't *all* be bottom of the NN.

It's just that the NN has taken a huge dip, and Pokemon and rallies rule the site now.

Outside of Link, Snake and maybe Samus the rest of the NN is probably very, very tightly packed.
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#324 | ZFS | Posted 9/5/2013 10:08:50 PM | message detail
Oh, no doubt. I've been saying the gaps in strength are no longer big for a while now. There's very little, if any, separation from the bottom of the NN and the near elites up through probably #2. Still, when Cloud and Sephiroth used to be in their own tier it's a more notable drop when you see them barely hanging on to wins. Just not very impressive, or threatening, anymore, but obviously still strong. They're not midcarders or anything, but very beatable by quite a few characters.
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#325 | BleedingRed | Posted 9/5/2013 10:10:31 PM | message detail
Acerac posted...
BleedingRed posted...
ZFS posted...
Sephiroth > Cloud in the late 90s, early 00s is certainly true. Not sure why KH flipped it, but Sephiroth was the FF guy once FFVII came out.


It's really not. You have maybe a vocal userbase that really liked Seph, but the majority of people that played the game prefer, and always preferred, Cloud.


I like how all the veterans are giving you evidence to the contrary and you don't even try to refute it.


"All the veterans" as though I haven't been around since the first contest. Besides, I'm not talking about the board itself. I'm talking about in the general userbase. 90% of casual players tend to identify with the main character of whatever their favorite game is. FFVII was a very popular game, and I wouldn't consider a lot of casual gamers to have played a bunch of RPGs, but while the people that came on here to discuss the game may have liked Sephiroth more Cloud would have always been more popular among the voting population as a whole.
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#326 | ZFS | Posted 9/5/2013 10:11:52 PM | message detail | (edited)
Well, I don't think Snake is that much further ahead of Cloud, in the sense that he'll destroy him. I don't believe in the crazy Snake hype until he actually proves he's managed some separation. Kefka and Glados not really cutting it for me after how close those two were. I do think he's probably at something like 53-54% on Cloud.
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#327 | Xuxon | Posted 9/5/2013 10:12:14 PM | message detail
From: creativename | Posted: 9/6/2013 1:07:29 AM | #323
Outside of Link, Snake and maybe Samus the rest of the NN is probably very, very tightly packed.

if you're saying Samus > Mario sorry i'm not falling for it this time! Mario did too well in the bonus poll for that.
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#328 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 9/5/2013 10:12:28 PM | message detail
28 vote cut for Cloud as we have exited power hour.

So it begins...
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#329 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/5/2013 10:13:00 PM | message detail
Oh man I just realized Snake has an outside shot at handing Cloud his worst defeat ever.

Highly unlikely (as it would imply that he's *actually* Link level) but man, the tantalizing appeal!
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#330 | creativename | Posted 9/5/2013 10:13:02 PM | message detail
ZFS posted...
Oh, no doubt. I've been saying the gaps in strength are no longer big for a while now. There's very little, if any, separation from the bottom of the NN and the near elites up through probably #2. Still, when Cloud and Sephiroth used to be in their own tier it's a more notable drop when you see them barely hanging on to wins. Just not very impressive, or threatening, anymore, but obviously still strong. They're not midcarders or anything, but very beatable by quite a few characters.

Well Cloud and Seph have always had that static hate anti-vote base, which doesn't seem to have diminished any. And they've always been the easiest to bandwagon/rally against.

So them suffering from lower vote totals more than anybody makes sense. They'd always suck early but their sheer raw power and volume of votes would drown out the anti-votes almost completely by the end of the match.

That's not the case anymore, and those anti-votes cause them to look terrible. They are also very non-linear these days and will never blow anyone out except the weakest of turbofodder. Back in the day they good blow out fodder as good as anyone.
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#331 | BleedingRed | Posted 9/5/2013 10:13:06 PM | message detail
Almost a 30 vote cut. I think we're going to see Cloud take the lead sooner than later -- especially considering the amount of rallying already going on and Cloud is withstanding it pretty well.
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#332 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/5/2013 10:13:49 PM | message detail
Samus > Mario, indirectly. Roar.
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#333 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/5/2013 10:13:52 PM | message detail
Xuxon posted...
From: creativename | Posted: 9/6/2013 1:07:29 AM | #323
Outside of Link, Snake and maybe Samus the rest of the NN is probably very, very tightly packed.

if you're saying Samus > Mario sorry i'm not falling for it this time! Mario did too well in the bonus poll for that.


...how?
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#334 | Xuxon | Posted 9/5/2013 10:14:08 PM | message detail
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/6/2013 1:13:00 AM | #329
Oh man I just realized Snake has an outside shot at handing Cloud his worst defeat ever.

Highly unlikely (as it would imply that he's *actually* Link level) but man, the tantalizing appeal!

erm, if Sora's there that seems more likely than not, no?
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#335 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/5/2013 10:15:38 PM | message detail
Xuxon posted...
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/6/2013 1:13:00 AM | #329
Oh man I just realized Snake has an outside shot at handing Cloud his worst defeat ever.

Highly unlikely (as it would imply that he's *actually* Link level) but man, the tantalizing appeal!

erm, if Sora's there that seems more likely than not, no?


Like Sora can beat a random leeched Pokeymanz
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#336 | BleedingRed | Posted 9/5/2013 10:16:06 PM | message detail
If Sora is there Snake could easily win that match (though Snake beat Cloud by less than .3% in a 4 way poll that had Sephiroth in it).

I would be curious to see who Red would hurt more.
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#337 | creativename | Posted 9/5/2013 10:16:20 PM | message detail
Xuxon posted...
From: creativename | Posted: 9/6/2013 1:07:29 AM | #323
Outside of Link, Snake and maybe Samus the rest of the NN is probably very, very tightly packed.

if you're saying Samus > Mario sorry i'm not falling for it this time! Mario did too well in the bonus poll for that.

He did good in the bonus poll? In a neutral 24 hour match he probably would have put 53%ish on Crono - a Crono that was virtually equal with Pikachu. That's not good!!

He also has easily been the turd of the contest losing to Vivi.

Mario can still probably SFF guys like Sonic and Mega Man, but indirectly I doubt he's much stronger than Mega Man.

If I really had to guess the weakest NNer, I'd probably guess Sonic.
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#338 | ZFS | Posted 9/5/2013 10:17:17 PM | message detail
Yeah, the drop in votes seem to have hurt them the most, which makes sense. They were the biggest beneficiaries to the site getting a huge boost in 2003, after all! Even a weaker Link would put a hurt on them now, worse than any of their other matches, I think.
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#339 | Xuxon | Posted 9/5/2013 10:17:36 PM | message detail
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/6/2013 1:15:38 AM | #335
Xuxon posted...
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/6/2013 1:13:00 AM | #329
Oh man I just realized Snake has an outside shot at handing Cloud his worst defeat ever.

Highly unlikely (as it would imply that he's *actually* Link level) but man, the tantalizing appeal!

erm, if Sora's there that seems more likely than not, no?


Like Sora can beat a random leeched Pokeymanz

well which way do you want it? if you think Pikachu can win that (and i do think he can) then Crono isn't that bad, and Mario beat him convincingly despite the LFF.
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#340 | backinblack167 | Posted 9/5/2013 10:18:02 PM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
Mario was the site's favorite to win the 2002 contest. The odds were given as 6:1. Snake was next at 8:1, and then Sephiroth and Link at 9:1. Cloud was at 14:1. Strangely enough, the Noble Nine took up 9 out of the top 10, with Dante sneaking in ahead of Sonic and Mega Man.

http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/odds.html


Dante - the Noble Niner that never was
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#341 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/5/2013 10:18:09 PM | message detail
Well, Crono's probably worth more like 52-53% on Pikachu. Still not good for Mario if he wants to equal Samus indirectly.
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#342 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 9/5/2013 10:18:55 PM | message detail
BleedingRed posted...
Acerac posted...
BleedingRed posted...
ZFS posted...
Sephiroth > Cloud in the late 90s, early 00s is certainly true. Not sure why KH flipped it, but Sephiroth was the FF guy once FFVII came out.


It's really not. You have maybe a vocal userbase that really liked Seph, but the majority of people that played the game prefer, and always preferred, Cloud.


I like how all the veterans are giving you evidence to the contrary and you don't even try to refute it.


"All the veterans" as though I haven't been around since the first contest. Besides, I'm not talking about the board itself. I'm talking about in the general userbase. 90% of casual players tend to identify with the main character of whatever their favorite game is. FFVII was a very popular game, and I wouldn't consider a lot of casual gamers to have played a bunch of RPGs, but while the people that came on here to discuss the game may have liked Sephiroth more Cloud would have always been more popular among the voting population as a whole.


A general rule doesn't apply to every specific case. You are right that the main character of a game generally has a fair advantage over everyone else in the game. However, we already know FF7 is an exception since Sephiroth was very close to Cloud in 2003.
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#343 | creativename | Posted 9/5/2013 10:19:38 PM | message detail
Well if Sora is there Cloud is getting plain thrashed by Snake (assuming Cloud wins this match).

I do think Pikachu has a better shot than most are giving him though. I think Sora has dropped, and Pikachu will probably SFF Blue significantly.

Also the Pokemon fanbase is pretty much the widest on the site right now, which means they'd likely be the most immune to LFF.
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#344 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/5/2013 10:23:53 PM | message detail | (edited)
Xuxon posted...
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/6/2013 1:15:38 AM | #335
Xuxon posted...
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 9/6/2013 1:13:00 AM | #329
Oh man I just realized Snake has an outside shot at handing Cloud his worst defeat ever.

Highly unlikely (as it would imply that he's *actually* Link level) but man, the tantalizing appeal!

erm, if Sora's there that seems more likely than not, no?


Like Sora can beat a random leeched Pokeymanz

well which way do you want it? if you think Pikachu can win that (and i do think he can) then Crono isn't that bad, and Mario beat him convincingly despite the LFF.


Well it's more Sora disrespect rather than Pikachu respect. Also I don't think the Pokemon are remaining exactly constant, but that's a personal estimation.

As for Crono, while I don't think he's that bad... my estimate puts Mario's percentage at 53% in a 1v1 24 hour match. The most extreme you can get I think is 55%. I have a hard time seeing Crono crack 45% on Samus.

Love it, but don't see it.
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#345 | creativename | Posted 9/5/2013 10:23:26 PM | message detail | (edited)
It's so funny that Squirtle will probably hang tough overnight, like Kirby, yet the day vote will probably be too much for him.

(edit: actually he'll probably hang even tougher than Kirby because he's probably getting rallied harder)
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#346 | Acerac | Posted 9/5/2013 10:23:18 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
Well if Sora is there Cloud is getting plain thrashed by Snake (assuming Cloud wins this match).

I do think Pikachu has a better shot than most are giving him though. I think Sora has dropped, and Pikachu will probably SFF Blue significantly.

Also the Pokemon fanbase is pretty much the widest on the site right now, which means they'd likely be the most immune to LFF.

It's a shame that Kingdom Hearts 1.5 doesn't come out til next week, woulda given Sora a much needed boost.
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#347 | BleedingRed | Posted 9/5/2013 10:23:30 PM | message detail
Team Rocket Elite posted...
A general rule doesn't apply to every specific case. You are right that the main character of a game generally has a fair advantage over everyone else in the game. However, we already know FF7 is an exception since Sephiroth was very close to Cloud in 2003.


It applies in this case. You can see it in any time they've been in a poll together. Anyone can make baseless accusations of things pre-contest era, but Cloud has always been stronger and has absolutely crushed Sephiroth in any poll they've shared. I don't buy KH being the difference between which character is more popular.

creativename posted...
Well if Sora is there Cloud is getting plain thrashed by Snake (assuming Cloud wins this match).


Why would this be the case when Snake could barely eek out a win against Cloud with Sephiroth in the poll? It'll hurt Cloud, but Cloud could still easily win that match.
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#348 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 9/5/2013 10:24:12 PM | message detail
creativename posted...

He did good in the bonus poll? In a neutral 24 hour match he probably would have put 53%ish on Crono - a Crono that was virtually equal with Pikachu. That's not good!!


Um, didn't Mario just put up 53% on Crono with Mega Man in the poll? You think he'd do 53% in a neutral 1v1 24 hour match?
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#349 | KamikazePotato | Posted 9/5/2013 10:24:38 PM | message detail
I don't think Pikachu is going to SFF Blue very much if at all, but Sora probably loses that anyway.
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#350 | creativename | Posted 9/5/2013 10:24:57 PM | message detail
I see BleedingRed is still stuck in like 2008, as always.
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