Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1155

#351 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/5/2013 9:41:24 AM | message detail
Neku vs Catherine dont forget
#352 | Qwaar | Posted 9/5/2013 9:43:15 AM | message detail
OK I didn't like that update.
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#353 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/5/2013 9:45:04 AM | message detail
Plugging what Kefka and GLaDOS currently have on Snake into the 2010 x-stats puts them above that year's Ryu, Dante, Leon, Zero, Aeris, Fox, Sub-Zero, and unadjusted Zelda. All of whom came from Snake, Cloud, and Samus's divisions. Snake > Mario by a notable amount in 2010 gets them above that year's Big Boss as well. If Snake has boosted since, that makes them look even better.

Might drop a little as the day vote goes but they probably remain in that general area.
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#354 | swordz9 | Posted 9/5/2013 9:46:08 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Neku vs Catherine dont forget

This topic was hilarious during that match.
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#355 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/5/2013 9:49:42 AM | message detail
Kefka's percentage on Altair, Zack, and Hayabusa all seemed to indicate that he was up at Kirby level, which is why I adjusted my 'good Snake performance' to a 63-64% level. He's a touch above that so I'm pretty happy. The only real wrench in that analysis is GlaDOS, who is difficult to gauge since we don't have a clean read on her.

Snake should validate or refute their strengths next round, though. If he thrashes Cloud/Squirtle then they're assuredly legit. If if it's a close win/loss instead then obviously it won't speak terribly well to their strengths.
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#356 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 9/5/2013 10:45:45 AM | message detail
Speaking of Zack, what happened there? I'm surprised he'd lose so easily..
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#357 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/5/2013 10:47:59 AM | message detail
FF7 drop + Magus Effect I'd imagine. Same thing that happened to Vincent to an extent (though we have no way of gauging how much he's really dropped thanks to the dick move sabotage).
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#358 | Qwaar | Posted 9/5/2013 10:48:44 AM | message detail
24 vote swing there for Kefka.
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#359 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 9/5/2013 10:48:56 AM | message detail
Closest match ever so far?
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#360 | swordz9 | Posted 9/5/2013 10:49:04 AM | message detail
With only the girls from FF7 performing well this year it's a good sign to get Yuffie in next time.
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#361 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/5/2013 10:50:07 AM | message detail
swordz9 posted...
With only the girls from FF7 performing well this year it's a good sign to get Yuffie in next time.


swordz post
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#362 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 9/5/2013 10:50:43 AM | message detail
Or for Cloud to have a dress pic against Squirtle.
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#363 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/5/2013 10:54:15 AM | message detail
With some of the picsmithing we've seen this contest it wouldn't surprise me.
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#364 | ZFS | Posted 9/5/2013 10:58:48 AM | message detail
Yuffie pass

Leon already had the right idea with Red XIII. AnimalFAQs is the new hot.
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#365 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 9/5/2013 11:00:24 AM | message detail
Yeah, if this were actually an advancement match, it'd be in the running for closest wire-to-wire battle. Too bad only battles where at least one of the characters advances count.
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#366 | im317 | Posted 9/5/2013 11:02:00 AM | message detail
want to see a Tales character finally win again, nominate Repede
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#367 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/5/2013 11:03:41 AM | message detail
Oh this match is still going
#368 | Qwaar | Posted 9/5/2013 11:13:41 AM | message detail
This is just a crazy match. This is going down to the wire isn't it?
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#369 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 9/5/2013 11:19:06 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
FF7 drop + Magus Effect I'd imagine. Same thing that happened to Vincent to an extent (though we have no way of gauging how much he's really dropped thanks to the dick move sabotage).


In other words, Zack was overrated based on his performances in previous contests. Hmmm... I wonder if Charizard wound up being a victim of it as well...?
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#370 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/5/2013 11:19:38 AM | message detail
If we really do have an actual ASV in this match, then Kefka should be collapsing very soon.
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#371 | Polycosm | Posted 9/5/2013 11:20:48 AM | message detail
This is a great match. Largest difference between second and third was 74, but it's been sub-30 most of the time.
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#372 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/5/2013 11:21:55 AM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
If we really do have an actual ASV in this match, then Kefka should be collapsing very soon.


Kefka to win the ASV confirmed.
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#373 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/5/2013 11:22:11 AM | message detail
Max lead is 74,made by Kefka at 1:12
Average lead is 23.12
Biggest gain was 31,made by Kefka at 11:17 (MONSTER UPDATE)
Worst update for Kefka was 19 votes at 6:32
Worst update for GlaDOS was 17 votes at 4:57

Im bored,enjoy random facts
(also totally unrelated but why is this still alive
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/928790-final-fantasy-xiii/53869774 )
#374 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/5/2013 11:28:44 AM | message detail
Fayt_Esteed posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
FF7 drop + Magus Effect I'd imagine. Same thing that happened to Vincent to an extent (though we have no way of gauging how much he's really dropped thanks to the dick move sabotage).


In other words, Zack was overrated based on his performances in previous contests. Hmmm... I wonder if Charizard wound up being a victim of it as well...?


No, perhaps I was a bit unclear. Zack more than validated his performances in 2008 and 2010. It's not like Magus where he had one gangbusters match and the rest of his matches (Sam Fisher, Ganondorf, Luca Blight) were indicative of him being an overrated bust. It's more how Magus has gone from legitimately hanging around the midcard level to being near the fodder line. Zack's thrashed Wario, Cecil, Zidane, Duke Nukem, Altair, and Yuna. Zack is just suffering disproportionately from FF7 weakening because he's a very obscure fan-favorite from the game, his PSP spinoff notwithstanding.

But even despite the weakening Kefka's performances were still strong, even if you're conservative with them. It's just a question of how strong - how much was it the weakness of his opponents, and how much is this GlaDOS boosting?
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#375 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/5/2013 11:31:34 AM | message detail
Zack's currently projected at 32.90% on Snake right now, which isn't that bad, depending on how strong you think Snake is. That projects to a 57.10% win for Snake over 2010 Mega Man, assuming Zack is static.

Or assuming this contest makes sense.

Or assuming a lot of things that probably aren't true.
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#376 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/5/2013 11:34:12 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Zack's currently projected at 32.90% on Snake right now, which isn't that bad, depending on how strong you think Snake is. That projects to a 57.10% win for Snake over 2010 Mega Man, assuming Zack is static.

Or assuming this contest makes sense.

Or assuming a lot of things that probably aren't true.


Chie>Snake confirmed
#377 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/5/2013 11:37:45 AM | message detail
32.9% on Snake? Zack got 30% on Link, so that gives Snake.....45.5% on 2008 Link with a constant Zack. More than enough to take down the current fraudulent version of Link (not counting the Draven match).

More likely Zack has dropped severely.
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#378 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/5/2013 11:39:38 AM | message detail
I don't think Zack is static, but I think Snake would be doing better with more even pictures, so it's a wash. The Kefka percentage isn't concerning to me at all - it's just about where GlaDOS stands.
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#379 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/5/2013 11:42:23 AM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
32.9% on Snake? Zack got 30% on Link, so that gives Snake.....45.5% on 2008 Link with a constant Zack. More than enough to take down the current fraudulent version of Link (not counting the Draven match).

More likely Zack has dropped severely.


Draven match Link vs 2007 final L-Block vs 2003 Cloud 3-way match
what
#380 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 9/5/2013 11:44:28 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Fayt_Esteed posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
FF7 drop + Magus Effect I'd imagine. Same thing that happened to Vincent to an extent (though we have no way of gauging how much he's really dropped thanks to the dick move sabotage).


In other words, Zack was overrated based on his performances in previous contests. Hmmm... I wonder if Charizard wound up being a victim of it as well...?


No, perhaps I was a bit unclear. Zack more than validated his performances in 2008 and 2010. It's not like Magus where he had one gangbusters match and the rest of his matches (Sam Fisher, Ganondorf, Luca Blight) were indicative of him being an overrated bust. It's more how Magus has gone from legitimately hanging around the midcard level to being near the fodder line. Zack's thrashed Wario, Cecil, Zidane, Duke Nukem, Altair, and Yuna. Zack is just suffering disproportionately from FF7 weakening because he's a very obscure fan-favorite from the game, his PSP spinoff notwithstanding.

But even despite the weakening Kefka's performances were still strong, even if you're conservative with them. It's just a question of how strong - how much was it the weakness of his opponents, and how much is this GlaDOS boosting?


Okay. And yeah, it's hard to tell how much credit is too much credit when it comes to Kefka. And after seeing Mega Man go berserk, as well as Charizard flop, part of me's unsure about what'll happen in Mega Man/Zero/Charizard - I think Charizard will win, but you can't always trust POKEFEAR.
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#381 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/5/2013 11:45:59 AM | message detail
Mathematically, Charizard would have to be a ridiculous flop to lose that match. Even compared to his flop last round. Zero is probably the worst possible opponent you could give Mega Man in that match outside of, like, Link or X or something. I don't care how much MM's boosted, Charizard losing that match would make him Turd of the Contest.
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#382 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/5/2013 11:47:24 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Mathematically, Charizard would have to be a ridiculous flop to lose that match. Even compared to his flop last round. Zero is probably the worst possible opponent you could give Mega Man in that match outside of, like, Link or X or something. I don't care how much MM's boosted, Charizard losing that match would make him Turd of the Contest.


....Mario?
#383 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/5/2013 11:47:57 AM | message detail
I thought Mario is the turd of the contest
#384 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/5/2013 11:49:40 AM | message detail
Mario's performance was bad, but Charizard is basically in Vivi's position in that same match, only he's naturally stronger than Vivi, Mega Man should be weaker than Mario (or around the same level), and Zero is a much worse anchor than Ganondorf is.

So yeah, Zard losing that match would be a pretty epic choke job.
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#385 | red sox 777 (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/5/2013 11:50:25 AM | message detail
Mario could potentially be worse than Zero for Megaman- that's how I first read that post. It can be read both ways.

If Charizard can't win, that's pretty awful for him, yeah. FFVII remains turd of the contest until Cloud/Sephiroth can do something impressive though.
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#386 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/5/2013 11:51:39 AM | message detail | (edited)
Mega Man got 38.69% against Solid Snake with Zero in the poll in 2008.

He would have to get pretty close to Snake before I would take Zelda over a weaker Mega Man

Then again, Mega Charizard boost.
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#387 | BleedingRed | Posted 9/5/2013 11:51:24 AM | message detail
I think this match, if anything, just shows that Snake isn't ready for someone of Cloud's caliber.

Bowser almost doubled Kefka last time they matched, and Bowser got absolutely wasted by Mewtwo. In 2008 he was DEAD LAST against such powerhouses as Marth, Nico and Duke Nukem.

Because he beat Zack and Ryu in a contest turned upside down doesn't make him any less weak than he always has been.

If anything this performance is pretty disappointing given what Snake did against Alucard, who has always been stronger than Kefka.
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#388 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/5/2013 11:52:14 AM | message detail
Yes, Charizard losing to Mega Man would be more shocking than Vivi beating Mario. Vivi had a significant rally behind him and Zelda pulling down his opponent. Charizard is gonna have all the rally power in his back pocket in addition to the massive rigged match. Don't even get me started on how much the pictures are liable to favor him.
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#389 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/5/2013 11:52:15 AM | message detail
BleedingRed posted...
Bowser almost doubled Kefka last time they matched


No, he didn't. He only got 61.68%.
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#390 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/5/2013 11:54:41 AM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
Mario could potentially be worse than Zero for Megaman- that's how I first read that post. It can be read both ways.

If Charizard can't win, that's pretty awful for him, yeah. FFVII remains turd of the contest until Cloud/Sephiroth can do something impressive though.


well, Sephiroth is the first member of the Noble Nine to win his division....!
#391 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 9/5/2013 11:55:06 AM | message detail
Come on guys, Mega Man can win
we just have to believe
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#392 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/5/2013 11:55:44 AM | message detail
Oh, I'd love to see Mega Man win. Don't get me wrong.

It's just gonna require Zard to lay a dragon-sized turd.
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#393 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/5/2013 11:56:05 AM | message detail
In a day match, at that. Bowser probably isn't even worth 59% on Kefka 2010 in a 24 hour affair.

Not that I think Kefka has stayed static anyway.
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#394 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 9/5/2013 11:57:22 AM | message detail
I know it's not very likely (and I'm totally taking 'Zard in my expert), but Mega Man winning is the one thing that would have given me a good chance at being top 10 in the imaginary world where Draven didn't exist >_>
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#395 | ZinsanityCraze | Posted 9/5/2013 11:58:19 AM | message detail
BleedingRed posted...
I think this match, if anything, just shows that Snake isn't ready for someone of Cloud's caliber.

Bowser almost doubled Kefka last time they matched, and Bowser got absolutely wasted by Mewtwo. In 2008 he was DEAD LAST against such powerhouses as Marth, Nico and Duke Nukem.



Doubled? Bowser managed only 61% on Kefka in a day match.

Let's not forget that Cloud only scored 64% against Frog, so much for Cloud's caliber, lol.
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#396 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/5/2013 11:58:57 AM | message detail
ZinsanityCraze posted...
BleedingRed posted...
I think this match, if anything, just shows that Snake isn't ready for someone of Cloud's caliber.

Bowser almost doubled Kefka last time they matched, and Bowser got absolutely wasted by Mewtwo. In 2008 he was DEAD LAST against such powerhouses as Marth, Nico and Duke Nukem.



Doubled? Bowser managed only 61% on Kefka in a day match.

Let's not forget that Cloud only scored 64% against Frog, so much for Cloud's caliber, lol.


Cloud isn't ready for Snake, Snake isn't ready for Cloud
herewego.gif
#397 | Dabrikishaw15 | Posted 9/5/2013 11:58:59 AM | message detail
Solid Snake
47.52%
15857 Votes
Vote Solid Snake!

GlaDOS
26.24%
8754 Votes
Vote GlaDOS!

Kefka
26.24%
8755 Votes
Vote Kefka!
Total Votes: 33366
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#398 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 9/5/2013 12:00:06 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Mathematically, Charizard would have to be a ridiculous flop to lose that match. Even compared to his flop last round. Zero is probably the worst possible opponent you could give Mega Man in that match outside of, like, Link or X or something. I don't care how much MM's boosted, Charizard losing that match would make him Turd of the Contest.


Indeed.
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#399 | ZFS | Posted 9/5/2013 12:01:44 PM | message detail
These LFF matches are probably the worst thing about threeways. MM crushes Charizard 1v1, but Zero ruin it. Still don't think MM should be totally counted out, because Charizard sucked last round and MM has some reason to maybe get favored more than usual, but yeah, obviously not a big favorite.
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#400 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 9/5/2013 12:01:50 PM | message detail
Ever since the 90 minute mark, Snake has stayed in the 47% range and Glados/Kefka have stayed in the 26% range.

Damn consistent match
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