Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1153

#301 | Greyfeld | Posted 9/4/2013 12:00:09 AM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Greyfeld posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
GloryChaos posted...
Someone's trying to start a Sephiroth rally on /v/.


It's clearly a pro-Kirby rally.

I can't completely count Kirby out because these people seem pretty obsessed and our votals are real damn low. But Sephiroth probably doesn't naturally lose many or possibly even any day hours to Kirby based on normal trends. Kirby's gonna need a lot more than this to stay in the game over 24 hours.


I thought FF7 characters were night oriented?


In practice? No. FF7 does better in the night because Europe loves it more, but the night has **** votals and the Power Hour, both of which hurt it. The day isn't as good to it but it has a ton of votes and that compensates in the end.


If Seph's percentage is lower during the day, doesn't that mean that, regardless of vote total differences, it's going to give the edge to Kirby, who *is* day oriented?
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#302 | CP724 | Posted 9/4/2013 12:01:06 AM | message detail
I hope if we ever have another contest its never 4 ways again, rallies would probably decide every single match
#303 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 9/4/2013 12:01:19 AM | message detail
-hotdogturtle-- posted...
From: _SecretSquirrel | #291
On the bright side, if 4chan indeed prevails, we have our trump card for the next round.

http://25.media.tumblr.com/f61190eeb4ae8a09189099d3f9c89d66/tumblr_mj66haJkdb1r3tg06o1_400.png


Why not just go all the way?

http://i.imgur.com/G153ujd.png

I'm thinking of doing something with these two as well if Kirby makes it.

http://images3.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20110622032214/kirby/en/images/thumb/e/e6/Fighter.png/630px-Fighter.png
http://static.comicvine.com/uploads/scale_super/13/135592/2962294-8383490629-13275.jpg
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#304 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/4/2013 12:01:24 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Nanis23 posted...
Also
If Kirby=Luigi
How much of Luigi votes were being leeched by Ness?


More than Ness actually got.

This is a dumb match to make those comparisons.


Why? because of Sephiroth anti votes?


There are more reasons than I could possibly have the patience to enumerate, but if you want to set this Kirby equal to Luigi for yourself you're more than welcome.
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#305 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/4/2013 12:02:00 AM | message detail
Seph is at a huge advantage. Normal trends have him winning every single hour during the day. He'd get a lower percentage than at night of course, but with more vote intake he'd probably build up his lead more during the day than the night. Meaning the rallies are paradoxically less effective during the day.

Plus, it's only 3 AM- we have not yet entered the deep night. The early match is Kirby's time.
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#306 | Denzokuken | Posted 9/4/2013 12:04:45 AM | message detail
Seph should win this easily. Kirby has an exceptional early vote, boosted by rallies, and Seph is still keeping pace with him. Seph should rise throughout the match starting from about 1 hour from now, if he's within 500 votes of Kirby it should be a simple task. I doubt 4chan rallies can sustain 24 hours.
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#307 | pjbasis | Posted 9/4/2013 12:05:15 AM | message detail
Division 2. A lot more normal looking stats, though it's worth noting everyone behind Mewtwo is overrated by not being the victim of SFF, LFF, or Vincent's pic.

Which is why Caim is so close to Chester even though he more than doubled him (though that match probably overrated Caim too, based on how uber everyone in Sonic's division looked.)


Mewtwo - 23.30¢
Sonic - 19.27¢
Phoenix - 15.74¢
Vincent - 13.58¢
Bowser - 13.15¢
Marth - 12.90¢
Barret - 10.05¢

Sub-Zero - 9.39¢
Dracula - 9.20¢
The Boss - 9.15¢
KOS-MOS - 9.12¢
Garrus - 7.69¢
Nightmare - 7.02¢
Layton - 6.27¢
Chrom - 5.97¢
Fei - 5.86¢
Lucina - 5.45¢
Meta Knight - 5.23¢

Heavy - 4.94¢
Zero - 4.19¢
Dan - 3.93¢
Reimu - 3.78¢
Archer - 3.34¢
Dunban - 2.69¢
Frank - 2.08¢
Caim - 1.05¢
Chester - 1.00¢
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#308 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/4/2013 12:06:00 AM | message detail
Zinganger posted...
So Kirby's currently... actually keeping his lead.

Through the beginning of the night.

If he keeps this up, whether through /v/ rallies or what else have you, does Sephy have a chance throughout the day?


Kirby will have to seriously step up his game to compete during the day, or the trends are going to have to be defied. Right now, without rallies, Seph is probably pasting Kirby naturally with 55%+ hours in terms of the night vote. Instead the low votals combined with the rallies are making that more 50/50 instead. As the day vote comes in Kirby does better with natural trends, but relative to the baseline it's Seph probably dropping to 52%~ hours on him during the day vote. That might look better for Kirby at a glance, but as more votes flood in it becomes that much harder for the same rallies to make an impact.

Essentially, Sephiroth's day vote has to have gotten worse to the point where it is now as bad as his early vote, or Kirby's rallies will have to inflate further.
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#309 | Sorozone | Posted 9/4/2013 12:07:41 AM | message detail
Big Boss have any chance @ 2nd?
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#310 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 9/4/2013 12:07:54 AM | message detail
Yeah, Kirby needs to actually be strong enough to beat Sephiroth in the day to have a chance. Simply being better in the day isn't enough if the opposition is still posting more votes than you are.
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#311 | wakeuptogashi | Posted 9/4/2013 12:08:25 AM | message detail
Sephiroth should still win easily, but I'm getting sick of these rallies. What is a less rally-able characters supposed to do, well other than just being there so rallies can happen against them? What's the point of even nominating characters lacking a big reddit (or alternative) community going forward. Oh, and fictional characters in the bracket idea sounds kinda lame now if it's just going to be a rally-fest.
#312 | Zinganger | Posted 9/4/2013 12:10:42 AM | message detail
Sorozone posted...
Big Boss have any chance @ 2nd?


Definitely not if /v/ doesn't quit this.

If they drop off, which tends to happen, possibly.
#313 | paulg235 | Posted 9/4/2013 12:11:08 AM | message detail
I'm not seeing Sephiroth winning this at this point. Sephiroth will likely take the lead within the next two hours, but this is supposedly his strongest timezone. Kirby will just take back the lead with ease once the USA wakes up.
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#314 | Fr0zoN | Posted 9/4/2013 12:11:14 AM | message detail
wakeuptogashi posted...
Sephiroth should still win easily, but I'm getting sick of these rallies. What is a less rally-able characters supposed to do, well other than just being there so rallies can happen against them? What's the point of even nominating characters lacking a big reddit (or alternative) community going forward. Oh, and fictional characters in the bracket idea sounds kinda lame now if it's just going to be a rally-fest.

Yep cant wait for My Little Pony to dominate Batman
#315 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 9/4/2013 12:11:44 AM | message detail
wakeuptogashi posted...
Sephiroth should still win easily, but I'm getting sick of these rallies. What is a less rally-able characters supposed to do, well other than just being there so rallies can happen against them? What's the point of even nominating characters lacking a big reddit (or alternative) community going forward. Oh, and fictional characters in the bracket idea sounds kinda lame now if it's just going to be a rally-fest.


Galvanize the GameFAQS voter base would be my guess. That's a cold comfort though, because we're a supremely fragmented site. Even 4chan's boards are less insular than our own.
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#316 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/4/2013 12:11:57 AM | message detail
Also, yes, 1v1 would diminish the impact of rallies happening every single match. As it is Draven only beat Link because of the format, and the Pokemon have gotten wins they surely would not have otherwise (Tidus/Missingno, Zelda/Charizard).
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#317 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/4/2013 12:12:52 AM | message detail
BB's got a chance. He's got 44.5% right now, with Kirby still being helped out by rallies and before we've taken the plunge into the deep night. Kirby has one of the most unbalanced trends out there, and it's being even more unbalanced tonight by the rallies.
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#318 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/4/2013 12:14:37 AM | message detail
Also, geez guys, if you're so put off by the rallies you *can* go to /v/ and report them for link spamming. I doubt the guy is so obsessive that he'll keep spamming all day.

...probably.
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#319 | Denzokuken | Posted 9/4/2013 12:15:59 AM | message detail
paulg235 posted...
I'm not seeing Sephiroth winning this at this point. Sephiroth will likely take the lead within the next two hours, but this is supposedly his strongest timezone. Kirby will just take back the lead with ease once the USA wakes up.


That isn't how it works.
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#320 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/4/2013 12:16:04 AM | message detail
So I just woke up...
1)Mewtwo dominated. Lol at the leadeboard.
2)Sephiroth is losing. To Kirby. Yeah right. Sad day indeed. Someone make a rally topic on Reddit please! Although I guess the pictures help Kirby because he is against 2 serious dudes. I mean look at Kirby! It is just a pink ball!
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#321 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 9/4/2013 12:16:41 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Also, geez guys, if you're so put off by the rallies you *can* go to /v/ and report them for link spamming. I doubt the guy is so obsessive that he'll keep spamming all day.

...probably.


Most of /v/ is probably as sick of them as we are, I'd bet.
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#322 | Qwaar | Posted 9/4/2013 12:16:44 AM | message detail
If Kirby is this good during the US night, then surely Sep can be solid during US day.
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#323 | Fr0zoN | Posted 9/4/2013 12:18:08 AM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
So I just woke up...
1)Mewtwo dominated. Lol at the leadeboard.
2)Sephiroth is losing. To Kirby. Yeah right. Sad day indeed. Someone make a rally topic on Reddit please! Although I guess the pictures help Kirby because he is against 2 serious dudes. I mean look at Kirby! It is just a pink ball!


If you want Seph to win then not posting a rally anywhere is the best option. Keeping the votes more gamefaqs orientated is the only way for him to win.
#324 | CP724 | Posted 9/4/2013 12:18:39 AM | message detail
I'm not seeing Sephiroth winning this at this point. Sephiroth will likely take the lead within the next two hours, but this is supposedly his strongest timezone. Kirby will just take back the lead with ease once the USA wakes up.

is this the first seph match youve ever seen?
#325 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/4/2013 12:20:09 AM | message detail
Poor ertyu is probably crying in the corner of his room
As if Donte existence wasn't bad enough...Dante then lost to Squirtle (lololol) and now this
#326 | Fr0zoN | Posted 9/4/2013 12:20:21 AM | message detail
At this point Seph should win easily but I just dont know. Common sense says Kirby should fall off soon but then what if he gets an insane rally during the day? As long as he's within a few percent of Seph the match will never be over.
#327 | Singerton | Posted 9/4/2013 12:20:39 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Also, geez guys, if you're so put off by the rallies you *can* go to /v/ and report them for link spamming. I doubt the guy is so obsessive that he'll keep spamming all day.

...probably.


Isn't that what was said about Vivi and Mario?

...yeah...
#328 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/4/2013 12:21:03 AM | message detail
_SecretSquirrel posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Also, geez guys, if you're so put off by the rallies you *can* go to /v/ and report them for link spamming. I doubt the guy is so obsessive that he'll keep spamming all day.

...probably.


Most of /v/ is probably as sick of them as we are, I'd bet.


Well, yeah, there were like ten threads in a row that they reported. This one's just flying under the radar now. I doubt Kirby can win even if he keeps getting rallied, but if people just let the threads stay up they can't get sore over the rallying!
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#329 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/4/2013 12:21:50 AM | message detail
Singerton posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Also, geez guys, if you're so put off by the rallies you *can* go to /v/ and report them for link spamming. I doubt the guy is so obsessive that he'll keep spamming all day.

...probably.


Isn't that what was said about Vivi and Mario?

...yeah...


This isn't nearly in the league of the Vivi rally. This is just one weird guy bumping a thread.
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#330 | creativename | Posted 9/4/2013 12:22:44 AM | message detail
paulg235 posted...
I'm not seeing Sephiroth winning this at this point. Sephiroth will likely take the lead within the next two hours, but this is supposedly his strongest timezone. Kirby will just take back the lead with ease once the USA wakes up.

You are as hilariously bad at analyzing trendlines as you are excellent at making idiotic sabotage pics.
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#331 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/4/2013 12:23:13 AM | message detail
CP724 posted...
I'm not seeing Sephiroth winning this at this point. Sephiroth will likely take the lead within the next two hours, but this is supposedly his strongest timezone. Kirby will just take back the lead with ease once the USA wakes up.

is this the first seph match youve ever seen?


Yeah I remember people saying it often in his previous match where we made fun of his 49% against Morrigan
At this point in that match he had 49.83...and he finished with 52.04%
There is a lot for him to go up,and this is 24 hours match

Also comparing this with Missingno match,Sepihiroth will take the lead in 40 minutes
#332 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/4/2013 12:24:13 AM | message detail
Come on Seph....take the lead already so I can go to sleep. I just wanted to post "NintendoFAQs is dead. Welcome to the League of Draven."
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#333 | xp1337 | Posted 9/4/2013 12:25:35 AM | message detail
Just saw that Bacon reply about Barkley.

XD

As for this match: Big Boss why? =(

Also, Sephiroth losing because of a rally, I can't tell if that's encouraging that it actually took that, or just more depressing that it's actually happening.
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#334 | CP724 | Posted 9/4/2013 12:26:05 AM | message detail

Yeah I remember people saying it often in his previous match where we made fun of his 49% against Morrigan
At this point in that match he had 49.83...and he finished with 52.04%
There is a lot for him to go up,and this is 24 hours match

Also comparing this with Missingno match,Sepihiroth will take the lead in 40 minutes


I mean kirby could still win if the clowns on 4hcan rally him for 24hours, otherwise this would be 55/45 about.
#335 | creativename | Posted 9/4/2013 12:28:00 AM | message detail
That Barkley reply seriously needs it's own topic. The world needs to know!

/hyperbole (...though it really would be high comedy to see the replies and pure angst a topic about that would get)
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#336 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/4/2013 12:28:01 AM | message detail
If Kirby does win then next round Draven wins for sure because there will be 2 pink things there to split the votes.
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#337 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/4/2013 12:30:52 AM | message detail
Yeah I don't understand that post
Like,/b/ is not ok because they have ****ty taste but /r/LoL is fine?

OK...yeah I believe that this site is very happy with it's "got doubled by Chie" as the champion
#338 | Fr0zoN | Posted 9/4/2013 12:32:46 AM | message detail
At this point it's pretty damn obvious that SB has a "thing" for reddit. I mean he couldn't extend the Link poll for 1 hour because it would be unfair to them apparently. Shame he doesn't care about the users here.
#339 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/4/2013 12:33:19 AM | message detail
Seph looks poised to retake the lead again... and I don't think a modest rally is going to undo the damage the TDZ promises to inflict.
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#340 | Fr0zoN | Posted 9/4/2013 12:33:25 AM | message detail
rofl Kirby has just died
#341 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/4/2013 12:34:58 AM | message detail
Allen is not a True Doom Murderhead.
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#342 | Fr0zoN | Posted 9/4/2013 12:36:41 AM | message detail
Game over
#343 | Qwaar | Posted 9/4/2013 12:37:41 AM | message detail
These vote total are garbage at the moment. Is this normal?
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#344 | XIII_rocks | Posted 9/4/2013 12:37:45 AM | message detail
_SecretSquirrel posted...
AxemRedRanger posted...
Oh hey guys, look what I just found:

Message From KamikazePotato on 09/23/2011

Just letting you know that it is not a joke/invalid nomination. We're using the established game of Charles Barkley Shut Up and Jam Gaiden, where Charles Barkley is the main character and Michael Jordan is a recurring antagonist. The game and the characters in it fit all the rules of the contest, as well as the spirit.


Message From GameFAQs on 09/26/2011

Wouldn't really call them "historical characters"


Message From KamikazePotato on 09/26/2011

I think might be confused about what kind of game Shut Up and Jam Gaiden is? It's not a normal game. Charles Barkley has magic basketball powers and is traveling a post-apocalyptic world that was destroyed by a chaos dunk. Michael Jordan is the agent of an oppressive government, working to stop Barkley at every turn. They aren't just the Charles Barkley and Michael Jordan lifted from a random sports games - they're basically entirely different characters, like how games like Castlevania and Dynasty Warriors take generous liberties with Dracula and Lu Bu.

I won't press the issue again after this if it still gets shot down, but they really do fit all the rules of the contest. In a weird sort of way, but yeah.

Message From GameFAQs on 09/26/2011

I know the game - but entries like that lead to two possibilities: 1) It gets almost no votes, and goes out in the first round despite all the nominations, while keeping a better entry off the bracket, or 2) it becomes a /b/ rally point, winning and knocking out more popular entries, but alienating the majority of voters and leading to less people being interested in the contest (See: the latest GameSpot contest).

...
There are no words.


That is THE post of the stats topics.


Jaw dropped. Literally.
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#345 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 9/4/2013 12:39:57 AM | message detail
Welp, my Expert's dead as of this match. Went with Kirby.
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#346 | elitewarrior500 | Posted 9/4/2013 12:39:59 AM | message detail
http://boards.4chan.org/v/res/208257970 topic is still active but it seems they are discussing more than voting.. its actually a lighthearted discussion once past the 1st bits... im still hoping most of them are voting anyway
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#347 | Qwaar | Posted 9/4/2013 12:41:39 AM | message detail
Man, Sep just can't pull away.
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#348 | Fr0zoN | Posted 9/4/2013 12:42:38 AM | message detail
Well at least the guy seems to genuinely like Kirby. Better than just rallying for no reason I guess
#349 | wakeuptogashi | Posted 9/4/2013 12:45:59 AM | message detail
I probably just overreacted when I came back and saw Kirby gaining at this time of the night. 1v1 format should help.
#350 | Fr0zoN | Posted 9/4/2013 12:47:03 AM | message detail
Kirby got his 2nd wind. It always amazes me that a character can fight back like this after losing the lead so easily