Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1153

#451 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/4/2013 5:03:39 AM | message detail
Well, I guess you could consider this a 'strong' showing if you consider he probably won't lose (Seph just hit his peak lead of the match right now). Otherwise... I guess if you set Big Boss = Luigi, Sephiroth hasn't fallen off a cliff completely since 2010. Just a big, noticeable drop.
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#452 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 9/4/2013 5:12:05 AM | message detail
Sephiroth gained 300 votes from the start of the 4th hour to the end of the 8th. He will never have a stronger time period. I reckon he's done.
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#453 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/4/2013 5:13:49 AM | message detail
FFVII isn't the same as typical Square. Plus, the time until the ASV after the morning vote ends is basically a glorified night vote anyway, so he still has time to gain on Kirby.
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#454 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 9/4/2013 5:13:53 AM | message detail
...Wow.

Really? In a match rallied by 4chan, that got modded?

SMH.
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#455 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/4/2013 5:14:55 AM | message detail
If the match was 12 hours Sephiroth would won. So in 24 hours... It can't happen. Strange too.
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#456 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/4/2013 5:16:13 AM | message detail
Seph is gaining on the whole with the morning vote, anyway. He's doing better with it than he was with a ton of the night vote, thanks to the overnight rallying.
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#457 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 9/4/2013 5:18:01 AM | message detail
Looks like you're right now that I look at the match more closely, and Seph would've killed this with the night vote but for heavy rallying. He might be alright after all.
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#458 | Lopen | Posted 9/4/2013 5:20:53 AM | message detail
I was thinking Kirby had a chance at this since Seph was doing reasonably well in the power hour-- like that was an unnatural Sephiroth early vote and I don't think the usual 'rise till the end of the match' thing is going to happen here. I expect the day vote to resemble the power hour.

Pretty sure Kirby should be the favorite at this point since the 4chan assist let him weather the night vote. We'll see though.
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#459 | Scarlettail | Posted 9/4/2013 5:21:09 AM | message detail
I'll be surprised if Kirby wins or even stays close.
#460 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 9/4/2013 5:21:20 AM | message detail
Well, anyway, what I was saying was that this is pretty much the only site where MM > MMX would actually have a chance at happening, and even that seems unlikely.
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#461 | XIII_rocks | Posted 9/4/2013 5:22:01 AM | message detail
I kinda want Seph to win just for the sake of some normality, jeez.
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#462 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/4/2013 5:23:32 AM | message detail
It's not enough for the day vote to resemble the Power Hour - it has to EQUAL it or Kirby won't be able to come back. That's not impossible but it's gonna have to be better than the morning vote has been so far. Kirby still needs to defy trends to pull this out, despite every break that's been thrown his way so far.
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#463 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/4/2013 5:27:20 AM | message detail
#464 | eaglesarebeasts | Posted 9/4/2013 5:27:36 AM | message detail
Sephiroth winning here is the first satisfying result in a while. Hopefully he can hang on.
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#465 | Lopen | Posted 9/4/2013 5:28:21 AM | message detail
Well keep in mind the "during school vote" block is still very Europe oriented. The morning vote should be less damaging than the dead zone to Kirby but it's still not favorable to him. Seph should keep extending the lead for a while here. The question is if it gets too far out of hand by the time the afternoon vote shows up.

After the recent +30 and +36 for Seph I'm less confident that doesn't happen, actually!
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#466 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/4/2013 5:29:00 AM | message detail
Wow..nice update
#467 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/4/2013 5:29:09 AM | message detail
Also I'm not trying to kill comeback buzz so sorry if it comes off like that! But there's been like five straight pages of Seph is so screwed no way he can win this so I'm just trying to temper people's expectations so they don't get disappointed.
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#468 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/4/2013 5:29:54 AM | message detail
The real surprise is when Big Boss busts out the new ASV he's gained from being on the 3DS to make a 2000 vote comeback.
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#469 | Pram_the_Oracle | Posted 9/4/2013 5:30:50 AM | message detail
Oh, right, I still haven't played the port.
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#470 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/4/2013 5:31:04 AM | message detail
I'm pretty sure this doesn't count as the DSV block at all yet. It's only 8:30 AM EST. Half the USA is still waking up.
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#471 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/4/2013 5:32:09 AM | message detail
So when people in USA wake up, they come here to vote? Strange country.
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#472 | Lopen | Posted 9/4/2013 5:32:40 AM | message detail
Well whatever it is it still has a lot of Europe in it! I'm pretty sure the chart Luster made said that there's more Europe influence in the morning vote than the pre dead zone night vote.
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#473 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/4/2013 5:33:15 AM | message detail
wait are you saying in other countries people DON'T log onto GameFAQs as soon as they wake up

this is why I'm proud to be an American
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#474 | XIII_rocks | Posted 9/4/2013 5:34:59 AM | message detail
What's the most interesting final we can get now?

I know it wouldn't be popular here but I'd enjoy Mewtwo/Squirtle/Zard because I think it'd be somewhat close. I'm not sure any Draven final is interesting - everyone he comes up against severely splits the vote, right?
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#475 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/4/2013 5:35:27 AM | message detail
Europe's only half the story; Seph has a sick SNV to look forward to as well despite almost no Europe influence from it. If you'll notice, he's gone from being like 5% behind Kirby in America to 2% behind... and the map lags the poll. Kirby winning will be very tough - possible, but definitely wouldn't characterize him as the favorite.
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#476 | CP724 | Posted 9/4/2013 5:35:29 AM | message detail
kirby is going to get creamed with the asv if theres no rallys going on.
#477 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/4/2013 5:35:34 AM | message detail
If Sephiroth wins here, Mewtwo has a good change to beat him next round though.
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#478 | Lopen | Posted 9/4/2013 5:36:01 AM | message detail
Oh god Mewtwo Squirtle Zard if that's what Draven has come to save us from WELCOME TO THE LEAGUE OF DRAVEN
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#479 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/4/2013 5:36:19 AM | message detail
Nobody who comes out of these first three divisions is going to make for that great of a finals.

Snake vs. L-Block: THIS TIME WE PLAY FOR KEEPS is the best final we could have
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#480 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/4/2013 5:37:00 AM | message detail
Lopen posted...
Oh god Mewtwo Squirtle Zard if that's what Draven has come to save us from WELCOME TO THE LEAGUE OF DRAVEN


The hero GameFAQs deserves
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#481 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 9/4/2013 5:39:36 AM | message detail
XIII_rocks posted...
What's the most interesting final we can get now?

I know it wouldn't be popular here but I'd enjoy Mewtwo/Squirtle/Zard because I think it'd be somewhat close. I'm not sure any Draven final is interesting - everyone he comes up against severely splits the vote, right?


Draven/Snake/Squall

Squall actually has a minimal chance of getting there if he gets past Red and the Vivi SFF split, where he could slip by a Samus/Zard or L-Block/Zard LFF fest, and then he folds to FF/MGS SFF, allowing Snake to take on his most important mission ever.
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#482 | Lopen | Posted 9/4/2013 5:39:50 AM | message detail
Also I think the final I'd get the most amusement out of would be Draven/Cloud/Whoever with Cloud winning. Just because Cloud doing what Link couldn't would be pretty hilarious.

Most interesting match would probably be like Sephiroth/Snake/Mega Man. Could see any of those three taking that.
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#483 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/4/2013 5:40:53 AM | message detail
If Snake beats Cloud, Snake wins for sure.
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#484 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/4/2013 5:41:00 AM | message detail
_SecretSquirrel posted...
and then he folds to FF/MGS SFF


LOL

Squall's faced Snake a bunch of times, and he hasn't folded against him with the possible of exception of 2002. Even when it was Snake/L-Block/Sonic/Squall, he held up just fine.
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#485 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/4/2013 5:41:45 AM | message detail
Lopen posted...
Most interesting match would probably be like Sephiroth/Snake/Mega Man. Could see any of those three taking that.


Can't see anyone but Snake winning that.

Maybe I'm missing some reason to believe a Sephiroth who's got 55% on Big Boss could beat Solid Snake.
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#486 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 9/4/2013 5:43:04 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
_SecretSquirrel posted...
and then he folds to FF/MGS SFF


LOL

Squall's faced Snake a bunch of times, and he hasn't folded against him with the possible of exception of 2002. Even when it was Snake/L-Block/Sonic/Squall, he held up just fine.


It's a crackpot theory, it doesn't have to hold up. Besides, he'd have to be pretty resistant to SFF to get past the Vivi/Red match anyway. That's the most obvious hole in there.
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#487 | Lopen | Posted 9/4/2013 5:43:47 AM | message detail
Snake gets his Nintendo base stolen from Mega Man, allowing Seph to squeak by when Cloud could not
Mega Man has SMASH and/or PITY BOOST and crushes through

Snake would definitely be the favorite but I can think of reasons that he loses that
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#488 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/4/2013 5:44:14 AM | message detail
I don't know
If Sephiroth is struggling with Kirby,what does it says about Squirtle chances?
Cloud is stronger than Sephiroth and I doubt Squirtle is stronger than Kirby
#489 | XIII_rocks | Posted 9/4/2013 5:44:20 AM | message detail
Well yeah you'd have to be a Pokemon fan to like it, but I am so

I was thinking about something involving MM, but he'd need to beat Zard which is certainly a struggle. So...
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#490 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/4/2013 5:44:23 AM | message detail
Lopen posted...
Snake gets his Nintendo base stolen from Mega Man,


People still believe this is a thing that happens huh
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#491 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/4/2013 5:44:47 AM | message detail
Sephiroth/Snake/Samus is probably the best final we can get. Snake looks like he's a step above Samus so far but even if he is, Samus being the most independent entity should hopefully even that right up.
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#492 | Lopen | Posted 9/4/2013 5:46:37 AM | message detail | (edited)
I'm not sure I buy it myself-- not enough strong evidence of it really. I'm just saying it makes some sense! In theory!
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#493 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/4/2013 5:46:51 AM | message detail
Speaking of which, Snake has a match tomorrow.

What are we expecting?
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#494 | Lopen | Posted 9/4/2013 5:47:58 AM | message detail
Kefka with 87%
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#495 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/4/2013 5:48:26 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Speaking of which, Snake has a match tomorrow.

What are we expecting?


Snake lock for 1st and GlaDOS/Kefka is not something that can be predicted with stats
Snake-No Pick-No Pick
#496 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 9/4/2013 5:50:09 AM | message detail | (edited)
LeonhartFour posted...
Speaking of which, Snake has a match tomorrow.

What are we expecting?


Watch for the match pics, first. Who knows what's in there? Potatoes, Cake, Laughter, Sprites, Turds, Lettuce, etc.
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#497 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/4/2013 5:49:52 AM | message detail
With UpsetFAQs in full effect and at least one of the pictures likely to be Solid S*** v Laughing Kefka (grrr) I'm tempering my expectations a little. Still working out percentages that would be on par with his prior two performances (Link level believe happenin' here).
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#498 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/4/2013 5:50:16 AM | message detail
Rotating match pics means whatever picture advantages Kefka could get or disadvantages Snake could get are effectively neutralized (or at the very least greatly diminished), unless it just so happens to be the same picture in every match pic, so I wouldn't worry about waiting for the pics too much!
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#499 | KrisIsLyra | Posted 9/4/2013 5:51:06 AM | message detail
Play Final Fantasy 6
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#500 | ninkendo | Posted 9/4/2013 5:51:09 AM | message detail