Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1153

#1 | ZenOfThunder | Posted 9/3/2013 9:12:10 PM | message detail | (edited)
http://i.imgur.com/tNllRXR.gif

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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~Zen
#2 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 9/3/2013 9:10:21 PM | message detail
way to suck Kirby
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Also since people will probably ask, we are indeed checking into the legitimacy of all incoming votes and so far, everything appears to be legit. - SBAllen
#3 | swirIdude | Posted 9/3/2013 9:11:24 PM | message detail
If only ertyu were here to see this.
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"The people who play Final Fantasy 7 actually have lives and dont NEED polls" ~MajinUltima
SuperNiceDog: Bracket: Good, Taste: Bad
#4 | Dabrikishaw15 | Posted 9/3/2013 9:12:55 PM | message detail
Sephiroth
33.71%
602 Votes

Big Boss
27.94%
499 Votes

Kirby
38.35%
685 Votes
Your Pick
Total Votes: 1786
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http://i.imgur.com/GUtJDs7.jpg
Fact: Fanbases are unpleasable, deal with it.
#5 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 9/3/2013 9:13:17 PM | message detail
Incoming Extha meltdown #2
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Hey, its that SuperNiceDog! Congrats to the Guru 2011 winner
#6 | ninkendo | Posted 9/3/2013 9:13:21 PM | message detail
#7 | Greyfeld | Posted 9/3/2013 9:13:36 PM | message detail
I'm going to go in the corner and sob for a while, after seeing what switching my picks last round did to my expert bracket...
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PSN - Aevio
"I'm on a Goomba." - BlackMageJawa
#8 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 9/3/2013 9:13:38 PM | message detail
<(-^_^-)>
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Also since people will probably ask, we are indeed checking into the legitimacy of all incoming votes and so far, everything appears to be legit. - SBAllen
#9 | -hotdogturtle-- | Posted 9/3/2013 9:13:39 PM | message detail
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5ltxMhyV9U
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Hey man, LlamaGuy did encrypt the passwords.
With what? ROT-13? -CJayC
#10 | Kyle Bowen | Posted 9/3/2013 9:13:41 PM | message detail
Is Kirby puffed up this year?
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KB
#11 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/3/2013 9:13:45 PM | message detail
Sephiroth is going to win. It's only a question of how much.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#12 | Scarlettail | Posted 9/3/2013 9:13:45 PM | message detail
Remember, Kirby is everyone!
#13 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 9/3/2013 9:13:48 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
138---1--------0.00
137---4--------0.00
136---3--------0.00
135---5--------0.00
134---12-------0.00
133---15-------0.00
132---17-------0.00
131---35-------0.00
130---35-------0.00
129---52-------0.00
128---47-------0.00
127---41-------7.32
126---54-------1.85
125---64-------6.25
124---59-------6.78
123---61-------3.28
122---51-------3.92
121---66-------3.03
120---65-------3.08
119---78-------5.13
118---89-------8.99
117---72-------9.72
116---91-------3.30
115---112------9.82
114---98-------8.16
113---122------9.84
112---156------7.69
111---160------9.38
110---166------10.84
109---171------8.77
108---239------9.21
107---249------10.04
106---270------9.63
105---286------8.39
104---334------9.58
103---338------5.03
102---304------8.88
101---335------9.85
100---392------8.42
99----390------9.23
98----382------8.12
97----407------6.39
96----387------10.08
95----400------7.50
94----382------8.38
93----377------8.49
92----432------7.64
91----354------9.89
90----354------9.60
89----351------9.69
88----327------9.79
87----311------9.32
86----280------9.64
85----289------12.80
84----286------9.79
83----261------9.20
82----259------8.88
81----263------10.27
80----227------11.89
79----220------6.82
78----220------8.64
77----170------10.00
76----198------7.58
75----185------11.35
74----175------10.86
73----150------8.00
72----163------7.98
71----107------10.28
70----119------12.61
69----142------9.15
68----125------7.20
67----136------8.09
66----119------6.72
65----109------6.42
64----103------7.77
63----117------6.84
62----82-------7.32
61----86-------5.81
60----81-------11.11
59----74-------9.46
58----69-------10.14
57----59-------3.39
56----56-------8.93
55----50-------4.00
54----57-------1.75
53----48-------2.08
52----57-------5.26
51----41-------12.20
50----41-------2.44
49----37-------8.11
48----45-------4.44
47----34-------0.00
46----30-------0.00
45----22-------0.00
44----19-------5.26
43----30-------0.00
42----16-------0.00
41----19-------5.26
40----16-------0.00
39----18-------0.00
38----11-------0.00
37----7--------0.00
36----14-------0.00
35----8--------0.00
34----14-------0.00
33----2--------0.00
32----7--------14.29


Omitted scores got it wrong.

Another big hit to the leaderboards. No one in the top 226 gets it right. Prediction percentage is largely in the single digits across the board and only pokes into the double digits a handful of time.

12 people fell off the Top 49. TheOceIot, Tirofog, YetAnothrShadow, Als52, andylt, arelian, Axl_Rose_85, DarkFalconX, HeroicShadow, InvisibleOmega, JaySolano and Kibago did not have Mewtwo winning.

37 people got it wrong but survived. Current first place kenrmcha, current second place ecksgem, current third place Eikei, Greenmonkey034, SuorGenoveffa, CarveyFAQs, Colegreen_c12, fpce666, ahirsch101, RRRamos95, SoraLink2649, wakeuptogashi, ZenOfThunder, Astro1446, ChenKenichiFan, dimi161, Djungelurban, Flock_Masta_P, foxhead84, LordoftheMorons, mathmagus37, RAMS, strikerkid, VietBoi4Life, Xcarvenger, JeezyMiyagi, JeffZero, Jobi1, Karma_Hunter, Kirbydamasta, Korayashi, LordArcadio, NeoMagic249, OFool, POOTERSS, Prometheus89 and revo_gamer275 also did not have Mewtwo winning.

Congrats to the 3-ways. The person jumped from tied for 227th place to 6th for a correct Mewtwo pick!
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Pokemon VGC2013 US National - 39th place
Pokemon VGC2013 Worlds LCQ - Top 32
#14 | Lionheart08 | Posted 9/3/2013 9:14:15 PM | message detail
Not to rain on people's parade, but I get the feeling this rally is going to fall flat.
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I'm a genius! Geniuses don't NEED medication!
#15 | elitewarrior500 | Posted 9/3/2013 9:14:33 PM | message detail
(^o_o^) ^(o_o)^ ^(o_o)> (^o_o)^
^(o_o^)
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GT: LegendaryFalco
oh ok
#16 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/3/2013 9:14:53 PM | message detail
Sephiroth board vote confirmed
TOLD YA SUCKERS /jk
#17 | GloryChaos | Posted 9/3/2013 9:15:03 PM | message detail
Play Kirby's Dream Collection

Excellent 500th post.
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Brawl FC - 1332 8069 6690
http://i.imgur.com/OZ9aS.png
#18 | nkansas13 | Posted 9/3/2013 9:15:23 PM | message detail
Sephiroth looks pretty safe; he'll rise substantially the entire rest of the day.
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Hey I just met you, and this is crazy, but you have died of dysentery.
#19 | swordz9 | Posted 9/3/2013 9:15:28 PM | message detail
Is there even a rally going on?
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http://myanimelist.net/animelist/swordz9
#20 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/3/2013 9:15:34 PM | message detail
Also, while he's not doing amazingly, I was pretty right about Big Boss's core fans not abandoning him. That's really sundering Kirby's bandwagon potential. Someone like, say, Dante would have been a much better third wheel.
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http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif
Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
#21 | todbot1 | Posted 9/3/2013 9:15:35 PM | message detail
These match pictures are hilarious, Kirby sticks out completely in almost all of them.
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The horror. The horror. I embrace it...
#22 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/3/2013 9:15:53 PM | message detail
Yeah, this is over.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
http://www.last.fm/user/crazydom
#23 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 9/3/2013 9:15:54 PM | message detail
Kirby's got this. It's over. Trends have not been particularly strong this year… Remember Alucard?
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Harmony is peace. Peace is unity. Unity is harmony. I tell this to the King Nook. He ask me to leave.
#24 | SnoicFactor | Posted 9/3/2013 9:16:28 PM | message detail | (edited)
w00t! Seph keep it up!
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nt
#25 | ffmasterjose | Posted 9/3/2013 9:16:26 PM | message detail
Kirby why couldn't you do this in 2010 to Sonic when I was actually counting on you then
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Bracket for the Great GameFAQs Character Battle IX contest:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/cb9_code?c=5yiset6iJe2HCg87EdqV1-UnpdF4VgRZC5
#26 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 9/3/2013 9:17:05 PM | message detail | (edited)
DoctorJimmy133 posted...
Kirby's got this. It's over. Trends have not been particularly strong this year… Remember Alucard?

"whoops"
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Harmony is peace. Peace is unity. Unity is harmony. I tell this to the King Nook. He ask me to leave.
#27 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/3/2013 9:16:43 PM | message detail
These match pictures are hilarious, Kirby sticks out completely in almost all of them.

It's two darkish males up against a pink ball, it's hard not for him to stick out.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 119/180 Today's Pick: Sephiroth
#28 | Qwaar | Posted 9/3/2013 9:16:54 PM | message detail
DoctorJimmy133 posted...
Kirby's got this. It's over. Trends have not been particularly strong this year… Remember Alucard?


So a Sep cut equates to Kirby winning the match?
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XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak
#29 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 9/3/2013 9:16:59 PM | message detail
Yeah, if Kirby is only stalling Seph now, I hate to see how this goes once the Power Hour finishes.
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Agent Triple Zero at your service!
The artist formerly known as greatone10.
#30 | Articuno2001 | Posted 9/3/2013 9:17:34 PM | message detail
eh Sephiroth's not too bad.

Granted I am playing Final Fantasy VII right now, though.

Voted Kirby anyways.
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http://backloggery.com/articuno2001/sig.gif
#31 | elitewarrior500 | Posted 9/3/2013 9:17:52 PM | message detail
so the fire kirby pics are awesome
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GT: LegendaryFalco
oh ok
#32 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/3/2013 9:17:52 PM | message detail
Kirby's getting legitimately cut here. There's an outside chance he can't even hold on through the Power Hour.
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http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif
Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
#33 | ninkendo | Posted 9/3/2013 9:17:55 PM | message detail
#34 | creativename | Posted 9/3/2013 9:18:06 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Also, while he's not doing amazingly, I was pretty right about Big Boss's core fans not abandoning him. That's really sundering Kirby's bandwagon potential. Someone like, say, Dante would have been a much better third wheel.

This is true. A less popular 3rd character would have been better for Kirby.

Squirtle has that with Leon though. I expect Leon to get left in the dust that match.
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www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
#35 | Dabrikishaw15 | Posted 9/3/2013 9:18:47 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
These match pictures are hilarious, Kirby sticks out completely in almost all of them.

It's two darkish males up against a pink ball, it's hard not for him to stick out.


That's why it's so funny.
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http://i.imgur.com/GUtJDs7.jpg
Fact: Fanbases are unpleasable, deal with it.
#36 | todbot1 | Posted 9/3/2013 9:19:04 PM | message detail
True, but when I saw

http://img.gamefaqs.net/images/cbnine/battle/5255-01.jpg

I couldn't help myself.


Anyways, enough from me about the pictures... Kirby Kirby Kirby, he's the star of the show.
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The horror. The horror. I embrace it...
#37 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 9/3/2013 9:19:36 PM | message detail
Get Matt and Pat to rally for their theme song.
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Hey, its that SuperNiceDog! Congrats to the Guru 2011 winner
#38 | creativename | Posted 9/3/2013 9:20:01 PM | message detail
BK_Sheikah00 posted...
Get Matt and Pat to rally for their theme song.

Who?
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www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
#39 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/3/2013 9:20:54 PM | message detail
Kirby extends, but the night will not be kind
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 119/180 Today's Pick: Sephiroth
#40 | MisterVanitas | Posted 9/3/2013 9:21:18 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
BK_Sheikah00 posted...
Get Matt and Pat to rally for their theme song.

Who?


"Two Best Friends Play"
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"You see, Kaidan doesn't level up, he just stops holding back." --andy12handy
#41 | NewerShadow | Posted 9/3/2013 9:21:47 PM | message detail
From: Team Rocket Elite | #013
Congrats to the 3-ways. The person jumped from tied for 227th place to 6th for a correct Mewtwo pick!

This is basically my 'doomsday scenario' bracket that I made for fun/speed bracketing... and it has a very real shot at beating my prize bracket. >__> It also has Kirby winning this match.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/cb9_code?c=5vsjNP5MCqBFUZEsxpyyNkCS8B0MZpIsNF
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-.. --- - ... / .- -. -.. / -.. .- ... .... . ...
#42 | WellThoughtName | Posted 9/3/2013 9:21:52 PM | message detail
Someone get Sakurai to rally for Kirby.
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"A game with amazing story and mediocre gameplay usually beats a game with amazing gameplay and mediocre story." - Vlado, Gaming Expert
#43 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/3/2013 9:24:31 PM | message detail
Kirby might be able to hold on for a while but the dead zone will absolutely bury him.
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Demyx is better than Axel.
http://www.last.fm/user/crazydom
#44 | -hotdogturtle-- | Posted 9/3/2013 9:24:33 PM | message detail
From: WellThoughtName | #042
Someone get Sakurai to rally for Kirby.

*Kirby trips, lands in 3rd place*
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Hey man, LlamaGuy did encrypt the passwords.
With what? ROT-13? -CJayC
#45 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/3/2013 9:24:45 PM | message detail
Also assuming Sephiroth comes back and wins this, it'll be one of the bigger surprises I've seen this contest.

Which is saying something considering he's the overwhelming bracket favorite!
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http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif
Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
#46 | SnoicFactor | Posted 9/3/2013 9:25:56 PM | message detail
yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeessss
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nt
#47 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/3/2013 9:26:01 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Also assuming Sephiroth comes back and wins this, it'll be one of the bigger surprises I've seen this contest.

Which is saying something considering he's the overwhelming bracket favorite!


Sephiroth gonna make it further than Cloud like it's 2002
#48 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/3/2013 9:26:19 PM | message detail
Sephiroth might have the lead before the power hour is over.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 119/180 Today's Pick: Sephiroth
#49 | tennisboy213 | Posted 9/3/2013 9:26:35 PM | message detail
#50 | Mershaaay | Posted 9/3/2013 9:26:45 PM | message detail
Why are people forgetting that Seph was the third strongest character on the site for a half decade? Even if he has fallen, he'll still put up some beastly numbers.
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SephirothG post
http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/1268566/awwyeah.gif