Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1152

#351 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 9/3/2013 8:10:36 PM | message detail | (edited)
AxemRedRanger posted...
Sonic is bad data:

Sonic's fourway performances were terrible. We all know this. My personal favorites were actually Sonic wins: 54.65% on Sub-Zero before the Brawl announcement and 59.76% on Magus.

In 2010, Sonic got 54.61% on Kirby. In 2006, the year when Sonic pasted over 60% on Luigi and beat Crono, Luigi managed 52.31% on Kirby.

Sonic did less than 1% better on Link than Luigi did. Despite both being night matches and Sonic not actually being a Nintendo character.

Samus/Knuckles 2013 and Sonic/Knuckles 2010 projects Samus to get 60.42% on Sonic. Samus should not be capable of SFFing Knuckles worse than Sonic, so you'd think that would be generous to Sonic. Samus managed 57.51% on Sonic in 2004, so this doesn't even seem that impressive for her. For comparison Snake got 59.17% on Squall in 2010, and Snake was stronger than Samus that year!

If Samus SFFed Zelda in 2010 and/or Zelda has boosted from Skyward Sword since then, Zelda putting up 36.15% on 2010 Samus suggests she is indeed very close to Sonic.

Charizard barely edged Zelda out and she very likely wins a 24 hour match. If you give Sonic 70% of Bowser's votes here, he beats Mewtwo with 51%. If Mewtwo = Charizard, this backs up Zelda and Sonic being very close. See, Charizard being a potential Noble Nine beater in a fair match wasn't all that farfetched!

Bowser has looked really bad since 2007, and his performance on The Boss this year was probably the worst of them all. Yet give Bowser half of Mewtwo's votes and he's at 44.5% on Sonic despite there being potential SFF and LPF.


And yet now we have everyone calling for Charizard's head after Zelda made him look like junk... You don't get hyped to beat Mega Man in a fair match, and then turn around and nearly get run out of the contest and expect to retain much respect.
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#352 | GloriousSweater | Posted 9/3/2013 8:12:41 PM | message detail
So Mewtwo is kicking the crap out of Sonic but Charizard only managed to go even with Zelda...

Mewtwo/Ganondorf rematch who ya got
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#353 | -hotdogturtle-- | Posted 9/3/2013 8:14:24 PM | message detail
This is what I posted yesterday:

IMO: Kirby can get either 1st of 2nd, Sephiroth could honestly get any place, and Big Boss probably won't get 1st but his spot depends more on how the other two do.

Does this still sound accurate?
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#354 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/3/2013 8:15:51 PM | message detail
I wonder how much of an early deficit Sephiroth can survive. Cloud was trailing Kirby for a long while before coming back and taking him down with utter ease, but I don't think FF7 can survive too huge of a deficit any more with these s*** votals. This dinky little match today is going to come behind Draven's (and Link's) individual votes from yesterday.
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#355 | The Real Truth | Posted 9/3/2013 8:16:55 PM | message detail
What's funny is this next match is going to tell us the outcome of Squirtle/Cloud/Leon. It's almost the same match.
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#356 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 9/3/2013 8:17:47 PM | message detail
-hotdogturtle-- posted...
This is what I posted yesterday:

IMO: Kirby can get either 1st of 2nd, Sephiroth could honestly get any place, and Big Boss probably won't get 1st but his spot depends more on how the other two do.

Does this still sound accurate?


I can't really see Seph in third, or even Big Boss above Seph in any fashion, but I might be wrong.
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#357 | Greyfeld | Posted 9/3/2013 8:17:47 PM | message detail
Can somebody please tell me where this supposed "MGS/FF7 overlap" has been shown in the past? I've been looking over the old xstats, and I can't seem to find anything.
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#358 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/3/2013 8:17:51 PM | message detail
The Real Truth posted...
What's funny is this next match is going to tell us the outcome of Squirtle/Cloud/Leon. It's almost the same match.


inb4 Mewtwo>Squirtle
#359 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/3/2013 8:18:07 PM | message detail
Nah, if Kirby can only win slightly despite everything he's got going for him Cloud should be favored.
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#360 | GloriousSweater | Posted 9/3/2013 8:19:24 PM | message detail
Squirtle should be stronger than Kirby at this point, and I have quite a lot of confidence in the puffball winning tonight. So basically yeah, I think Cloud is dead, which means Snake might be dead a week from now (unless Sora lays the mother of all turds and allows a Pokemon to beat him).
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#361 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/3/2013 8:20:39 PM | message detail
GloriousSweater posted...
Squirtle should be stronger than Kirby at this point, and I have quite a lot of confidence in the puffball winning tonight. So basically yeah, I think Cloud is dead, which means Snake might be dead a week from now (unless Sora lays the mother of all turds and allows a Pokemon to beat him).


I don't see any Jigglypuffs here....!
#362 | -hotdogturtle-- | Posted 9/3/2013 8:22:49 PM | message detail
From: _SecretSquirrel | #356
I can't really see Seph in third, or even Big Boss above Seph in any fashion, but I might be wrong.

That's mainly what I'm thinking too. I just included that because some people are convinced that FF7 is dead and that they'll fold to any other characters strong enough to make it to round 3 at all.

I think I'm actually going with the Kirby win here, because this is the year of the anti-N9.
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#363 | -hotdogturtle-- | Posted 9/3/2013 8:23:28 PM | message detail
From: GloriousSweater | #360
Squirtle should be stronger than Kirby at this point

How do you figure this?
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#364 | Janus5000 | Posted 9/3/2013 8:30:07 PM | message detail
eh, Cloud's match is much more favorable than Seph's, unless I missed an instance of FFVII/RE overlap somewhere. he could still lose because that Frog match was awful, but at that point you may as well take Squirtle > Cloud 1v1.
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#365 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/3/2013 8:31:49 PM | message detail
Janus5000 posted...
eh, Cloud's match is much more favorable than Seph's, unless I missed an instance of FFVII/RE overlap somewhere. he could still lose because that Frog match was awful, but at that point you may as well take Squirtle > Cloud 1v1.


hey now, Cloud/Leon overlap is about as ridiculous as Dante/Leon overlap...!

amidoinitrite
#366 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/3/2013 8:34:22 PM | message detail
Greyfeld posted...
UltimaterializerX posted...
FF7 and MGS overlap a lot, actually. Kirby could easily win tomorrow.


You're going to have to explain to me how MGS and FF7 overlap.


http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/1653

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4564

Among a few other polls. MGS looks so weak against FF7, and really good against everything not named Shadow of the Colossus.
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#367 | Scarlettail | Posted 9/3/2013 8:36:59 PM | message detail
4 NNers down thanks to Mewtwo. Next up, Sephiroth.
#368 | CP724 | Posted 9/3/2013 8:37:48 PM | message detail
Man this seph board vote is gonna be so brutal for him, even more than usual.
#369 | creativename | Posted 9/3/2013 8:41:04 PM | message detail
That 4th pic with the flames is great.

The 8th one is really good too.

I really want Sephiroth to win here but Kirby scares the f*** out of him, he *always* has that stupid standout factor, plus FF/MGS have some minor overlap.

I could see Sephiroth finishing 3rd here. Any order wouldn't really surprise me.

Sephiroth is going to look sooooo horrid in the Power Hour though. He'll probably be 3rd - and hopefully he can finish higher than that with the day vote. He should be able to pass Big Boss I think due to MGS' poor day vote, but passing Kirby may be a tall task.
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#370 | Greyfeld | Posted 9/3/2013 8:43:56 PM | message detail
UltimaterializerX posted...
Greyfeld posted...
UltimaterializerX posted...
FF7 and MGS overlap a lot, actually. Kirby could easily win tomorrow.


You're going to have to explain to me how MGS and FF7 overlap.


http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/1653

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4564

Among a few other polls. MGS looks so weak against FF7, and really good against everything not named Shadow of the Colossus.


MGS is stronger as a franchise, while FF7 has strength as a singular game. I'm not sure I would put a whole lot of stock in that first poll if we're talking about overlap.

And the second poll could have easily been a case of Liquid Snake being an anchor around Solid's neck. We already know that Liquid isn't very strong in these contests.

If those are the results that are supposed to mean that FF7/MGS have overlap, I'm not sure I buy it.
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#371 | Qwaar | Posted 9/3/2013 8:47:04 PM | message detail
I still feel fairly strongly that Sep will win this. Hell, Kirby might even get pushed into third. Unless there is a Kirby rally.
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#372 | -hotdogturtle-- | Posted 9/3/2013 8:47:50 PM | message detail
Kirby losing to Big Boss is the least likely outcome of the entire poll.
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#373 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/3/2013 8:49:49 PM | message detail
I can't entirely discount Kirby coming in third, given that his 45% on Sonic looks pretty bad now... but strength is almost a tertiary factor in analyzing the polls these days.
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#374 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 9/3/2013 8:50:22 PM | message detail
On the other hand, his 57% on Vivi looks pretty good!
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#375 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/3/2013 8:51:19 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
I can't entirely discount Kirby coming in third, given that his 45% on Sonic looks pretty bad now... but strength is almost a tertiary factor in analyzing the polls these days.


stats?
worthless, gotta go with what you believe man
#376 | Scarlettail | Posted 9/3/2013 8:51:23 PM | message detail
Almost Kirby time. And even if he loses, it just gives Mewtwo a very slight chance next round, so it's all good.
#377 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 9/3/2013 8:51:32 PM | message detail
Sprite Big Boss in one of the match pictures will hurt Big Boss. It might be enough to prevent him from beating Sephiroth.
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#378 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/3/2013 8:51:37 PM | message detail
Based on Mario/Vivi I think Mewtwo's gonna curbstomp Draven with utter ease. He's well above Link using that after all!
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#379 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/3/2013 8:52:09 PM | message detail
TheKoolAidShoto posted...
On the other hand, his 57% on Vivi looks pretty good!


LOL
Kirby wins confirmed
#380 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 9/3/2013 8:53:21 PM | message detail
One thing's for sure. Sephiroth's going to be in last at the freeze!
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#381 | Qwaar | Posted 9/3/2013 8:53:48 PM | message detail
-hotdogturtle-- posted...
Kirby losing to Big Boss is the least likely outcome of the entire poll.


I know, and I could be completely wrong on this, but there you go.
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#382 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/3/2013 8:54:57 PM | message detail
Then00bAvenger posted...
One thing's for sure. Sephiroth's going to be in last at the freeze!


ChaosFAQs says Sephiroth leads at the freeze....!
#383 | CP724 | Posted 9/3/2013 8:55:06 PM | message detail
Remember we havent seen 24hour seph or cloud yet, this is gonna be some rise from the board vote.
#384 | Greyfeld | Posted 9/3/2013 8:55:56 PM | message detail
If anything, I think the "badass deboost" we've been seeing this contest is going to hurt Big Boss more than anything. It'll hurt Seph as well, but considering he was already an elite, there's a lot more room to make up to be able to beat him.
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#385 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/3/2013 8:56:26 PM | message detail
The rise is gonna be somewhat tempered by votals but yes, Seph could conceivably be behind at the 12 hour mark and still win. Against Big Boss more than Kirby, considering the poor day vote of the former.
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#386 | GoldSlime35 | Posted 9/3/2013 8:56:29 PM | message detail
With all the crazy upsets so far, I'm expecting it to continue.

Once Mario lost I've been expecting a Draven/Squirtle/LBlock final.
#387 | SnoicFactor | Posted 9/3/2013 8:56:59 PM | message detail
Whelp, I guess I'll vote sephiroth.
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#388 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/3/2013 8:57:38 PM | message detail
Always vote for your favourites
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#389 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 9/3/2013 8:57:43 PM | message detail
Let's go Kirby!

And then you're totally getting Sword Kirby match pictures next round.
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#390 | Lopen | Posted 9/3/2013 8:58:01 PM | message detail
Kirby COMIN FA YOU DRAVEN
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#391 | SnoicFactor | Posted 9/3/2013 8:58:21 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Always vote for your favourites


He's my favorite out of those. I'd take Solid Snake over Sephiroth though.
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#392 | snoocete | Posted 9/3/2013 8:58:27 PM | message detail
_SecretSquirrel posted...
Let's go Kirby!

And then you're totally getting Sword Kirby match pictures next round.


Bomb Kirby is fine too!
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#393 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/3/2013 8:58:54 PM | message detail
_SecretSquirrel posted...
Let's go Kirby!

And then you're totally getting Sword Kirby match pictures next round.


this must happen if he wins
#394 | RockMFR | Posted 9/3/2013 8:59:38 PM | message detail
Kirby over 50% incoming!
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#395 | creativename | Posted 9/3/2013 8:59:54 PM | message detail
Greyfeld posted...
MGS is stronger as a franchise, while FF7 has strength as a singular game. I'm not sure I would put a whole lot of stock in that first poll if we're talking about overlap.

And the second poll could have easily been a case of Liquid Snake being an anchor around Solid's neck. We already know that Liquid isn't very strong in these contests.

If those are the results that are supposed to mean that FF7/MGS have overlap, I'm not sure I buy it.

I think Sephiroth crushing Liquid Snake is when the idea of overlap was first floated about...or maybe it just got more popular then after the FF7/MGS match.

Cloud also got a slight majority of Snake's votes when Snake was taken out in the Battle Royale, I believe.
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#396 | Scarlettail | Posted 9/3/2013 9:00:06 PM | message detail
Go go Kirby!
#397 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 9/3/2013 9:00:14 PM | message detail
Sephiroth
30%
6 Votes
Big Boss
10%
2 Votes
Kirby
60%
12 Votes
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#398 | tennisboy213 | Posted 9/3/2013 9:00:14 PM | message detail
Vote Accepted


Sephiroth
28.57%
4 Votes
Your Pick

Big Boss
7.14%
1 Votes

Kirby
64.29%
9 Votes
Total Votes: 14
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#399 | jacko_vdz | Posted 9/3/2013 9:00:15 PM | message detail
Vote Accepted


Sephiroth
28.57%
6 Votes

Big Boss
9.52%
2 Votes

Kirby
61.9%
13 Votes
Your Pick
Total Votes: 21
#400 | Dabrikishaw15 | Posted 9/3/2013 9:00:15 PM | message detail
It's on!!
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