Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1152

#201 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 9/3/2013 1:13:41 PM | message detail
Fayt_Esteed posted...
LinkMarioSamus posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
My projection currently has Sonic just a smidge over Mewtwo right now, which is pretty bad. I'd take Sonic over Zelda 1v1, but I wouldn't like it.


I like how people are seriously considering Zelda > Sonic at a time where Sonic's series has gotten resurrected while Zelda's has hit an all-time low in terms of popularity (unless you want to account for the MM/WW nostalgia boost).


With Zelda refusing to fold to anything, and Sonic sucking it up in matches with Nintendo characters... let's just say I wouldn't exactly be surprised.


Uh did you not see what Samus did to her last contest?

I have a dumb theory though that Zelda resisted SFF from Mario in 2008 because GameFAQs users would read the match as "Mario vs. Zelda" in terms of the franchises involved, while she got SFFd by Samus in 2010 within the SSB fanbase. Anyone want to entertain it with me?
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#202 | im317 | Posted 9/3/2013 1:13:52 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Samus SFFed Zelda hard. Charizard has no shot.


what if Mega Charizard is shown in tomorrows Nintendo direct?
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#203 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/3/2013 1:14:38 PM | message detail
Samus is strong. Really strong. Charizard needed Mario to be there.
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#204 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/3/2013 1:14:46 PM | message detail
I like how LMS still tries to debate with people even though no one responds to him anymore.
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#205 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 9/3/2013 1:21:32 PM | message detail
Also I would have written this earlier, but when I saw that Charizard completed his comeback against Zelda I decided to hold off.

But I honestly feel as if cutesy characters will pretty much always overperform against badasses. We've seen several previous cases of it too:

-Tails breaking 40% on Dante in 2004.
-Dante losing to Yoshi in 2006
-Rydia beating Marcus Fenix in 2008 (standing out as the "sexy girl" against three VERY masculine characters)
-Jill beating Ocelot in 2008 (same idea as with Rydia)
-Vivi almost beating Zero in 2008 (again standing out against three "badass" characters)
-Tails almost breaking 40% on Kratos in 2010.
-Recette beating Travis in this contest.
-Squirtle leaving Dante absolutely drenched this contest.
-And most recently, Charizard needing last-minute rallies up his ass just to save him from freaking Zelda.

By this point, I have to think that the average GameFAQs voter is trying to rebel against the norm and is fed up with all those cutesy characters being mocked while the "badass" characters are given the spotlight. Or something.
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#206 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 9/3/2013 1:23:38 PM | message detail
Also out of curiosity, why do people still think Tifa has a shot against Samus? Last contest's stats alone have Samus getting like 57% on her or something, and with the way FFVII has seemingly fallen off a cliff this contest, Samus should blow out Tifa now.

Also didn't Tifa just fail to break 60% on someone who couldn't even break 60% on Pyramid Head?
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#207 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 9/3/2013 1:36:53 PM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
Also out of curiosity, why do people still think Tifa has a shot against Samus? Last contest's stats alone have Samus getting like 57% on her or something, and with the way FFVII has seemingly fallen off a cliff this contest, Samus should blow out Tifa now.

If people are saying Tifa has a chance it is probably just because they are clinging to some Female Character rSFF or Samus/Tifa 2006. She doesn't have a shot. Tifa's 2010 X-Stat is inflated by her match against Sephiroth, which was likely rSFF and Missingno. revenge voters.

Also didn't Tifa just fail to break 60% on someone who couldn't even break 60% on Pyramid Head?

LFF.
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#208 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/3/2013 1:37:13 PM | message detail
#209 | rpgsruleall | Posted 9/3/2013 1:39:07 PM | message detail
Funny coincidence: Draven is on sale for half off today (and for the next few days) in the LoL store.
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#210 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 9/3/2013 1:44:03 PM | message detail
Just curiosity, Leon, but what's with your sig? Every time you post, it's different. I'd not imagine you'd change sigs so frequently...
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#211 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/3/2013 1:51:44 PM | message detail
#212 | lightning-02 | Posted 9/3/2013 1:57:50 PM | message detail
Squirrelgate posted...
I'm not sure if this is old news but I found this in the comments for the Draven victory thread on Reddit:



I didn't think I could have a lower opinion of a website until I saw this post.


Definitely someone from this board trying to troll people here to have inside knowledge like that. Nobody on Reddit would bother doing a background check like that.
#213 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 9/3/2013 2:02:12 PM | message detail | (edited)
DoctorJimmy133 posted...
LinkMarioSamus posted...
Also out of curiosity, why do people still think Tifa has a shot against Samus? Last contest's stats alone have Samus getting like 57% on her or something, and with the way FFVII has seemingly fallen off a cliff this contest, Samus should blow out Tifa now.

If people are saying Tifa has a chance it is probably just because they are clinging to some Female Character rSFF or Samus/Tifa 2006. She doesn't have a shot. Tifa's 2010 X-Stat is inflated by her match against Sephiroth, which was likely rSFF and Missingno. revenge voters.

Also didn't Tifa just fail to break 60% on someone who couldn't even break 60% on Pyramid Head?

LFF.


A supposed high midcarder being leeched so badly as to be worth only like 67% on freaking Pyramid Head.

Yep, definitely has a chance against Samus! Though I do still think it's possible that Samus may have deboosted due to alpha DmC and has just hid it by SFFing every character in sight.

Seriously, does anyone else think that's possible?
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#214 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 9/3/2013 2:11:24 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
I'm apparently the only guy left who uses rotating sigs.


I never thought GameFAQs had rotating sigs...
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#215 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/3/2013 2:16:43 PM | message detail
I think it was a GameFOX thing
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Points: 119/171 Today's Pick: Sonic
#216 | HaRRicH | Posted 9/3/2013 2:18:52 PM | message detail
Link/Draven was so huge, I've nearly forgotten that in the past two days:

1) Zelda nearly upset Charizard
2) We got a Mario/Crono-rematch.
3) Mewtwo's beating Sonic despite Bowser.


Unbelievable, even for a contest that's about breaking expectations.
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#217 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/3/2013 2:19:04 PM | message detail
Rotating sigs is the only reason I still bother with gamefox.
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#218 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/3/2013 2:22:25 PM | message detail
For tonight... if you haven't guessed it, today isn't a good result for Kirby! 45% on this Sonic looks none too good. Granted, that still may be sufficient to beat today's Sephiroth if he's completely fallen off a cliff.

Big Boss is almost certainly stronger than Kirby, though - he's already beaten the crap out of him, and is a near-equal to Luigi, who is a clear notch above the Kirbmeister. Kirby/BB would be no problem 1v1 for Punished Snake, but Kirby is by far the most independent entity in the match. That could be the dealbreaker.

1v1 strength hasn't been as useful in this context as overlap, so even minor overlap should be decisive. That being said, I can't see Big Boss folding, which is going to really hurt Kirby's chances, and it's a 24 hour match. I'd give Sephiroth a 60% chance of winning tomorrow's match, Kirby 25%, Big Boss 15%.
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#219 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/3/2013 2:23:30 PM | message detail
HaRRicH posted...
Link/Draven was so huge, I've nearly forgotten that in the past two days:

1) Zelda nearly upset Charizard
2) We got a Mario/Crono-rematch.
3) Mewtwo's beating Sonic despite Bowser.


Unbelievable, even for a contest that's about breaking expectations.


'Despite' is a really dumb way to put it.
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#220 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/3/2013 2:26:35 PM | message detail
Kirby got more on Sonic than Bowser

Can't really take much from the results, might as well throw darts for your oracle prediction now.
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Points: 119/171 Today's Pick: Sonic
#221 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/3/2013 2:27:34 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Kirby got more on Sonic than Bowser


'what is LPF'
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#222 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/3/2013 2:27:53 PM | message detail
I'm cautiously optimistic about Cloud and Sephiroth now. Feels like the R2 and R3 Draven matches shook up this site tremendously.
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#223 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/3/2013 2:31:14 PM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
I'm cautiously optimistic about Cloud and Sephiroth now. Feels like the R2 and R3 Draven matches shook up this site tremendously.


that would be a bad thing for the FF7 duo.....
#224 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/3/2013 2:33:07 PM | message detail
Well they've looked so bad that I think they're the ones in need of a shake-up!
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#225 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/3/2013 2:34:29 PM | message detail
Indeed, a shakeup is all upside to FF7. If there's no change from what they did last round they'll probably lose both of their matches. If they go up from the shakeup, great; if they go down, they were gonna lose anyway.
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#226 | jtwo22 | Posted 9/3/2013 2:40:07 PM | message detail
And Mewtwo hits an exact 3000 vote advantage.
Seems most had Mewtwo behind both Sonic and Bowser ,but you showed them. Great work M2.
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#227 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/3/2013 2:40:18 PM | message detail
'what is LPF'

What is three "Nintendo" characters in a match.
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Points: 119/171 Today's Pick: Sonic
#228 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/3/2013 2:52:25 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
'what is LPF'

What is three "Nintendo" characters in a match.


This isn't even a cogent response.
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#229 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/3/2013 2:59:10 PM | message detail
Forget Mewtwo beasting got a moment. Mario/Sonic overlapping worse than Mario/Pokemon is certainly at least plausible,.Pokemon have done lots of crazy stuff this contest, and the spillover from last match might have benefited Mewtwo a little, so Sonic has several outs there for losing and not looking good in doing it. Mewtwo is not what makes Sonic look terrible here IMO. It's Bowser.

Bowser is probably getting LFFed from both ends here, overlapping more with both opponents than they do with each other. He's weaker than either of them too and in last place, so there could be some SFF or LPF. And Bowser sucked in fourways, only really looked good against Sora in 2010 in a terrible year for Kingdom Hearts (though this one looks worse!), and he let The Boss break 40% on him in a day match this contest. Bowser has not done well lately. I doubt he still beats Kirby since he only got 52.12% on the guy at around the peak of his strength in 2005.

Yet Bowser is currently above 40% on Sonic with no adjustments. Sonic probably loses minor ground to Bowser by the end of the match too, thanks to Europe going to sleep.
Split Mewtwo's votes 50-50 and Bowser is above 44% on Sonic.
Give Bowser 60% of his fellow Nintendo character's votes and Bowser is at 48.5% on Sonic. I'm guessing it being that close means 60% is too high since I don't think much of Bowser's current strength but yeah.

And we're pretty sure Luigi is stronger than Bowser at this point. Link/Luigi and Link/Sonic in 2010 implied that Luigi and Sonic were close. This match makes that sound pretty accurate.
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#230 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/3/2013 3:05:07 PM | message detail
The worst part is that Bowser didn't really look good at all, either (letting The Boss get 42% on you is horrible). I don't think Sonic sucking in the fourways was mostly the fourways. I think he just fell off a cliff in 2007, barely survived against Squall thanks to his SSBB announcement, and then got pasted by Auron and Kirby in 2008 on his own weakness.

Followed by letting a character without a game get 36% on him, an SFF match with Knuckles (which, even if you presume no SFF, looks really really bad because of how much Knuckles sucks these days), looking decent against Ganondorf because of a stacked picture advantage, and then letting Kirby break 45% on him.

Oh, and then doing almost as badly on Link as Luigi (and a weak Link, at that!) when he's not even a pure Nintendo character. What the f***.
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#231 | The_Djoker | Posted 9/3/2013 3:05:11 PM | message detail
Samus is no doubt weaker than 2010 and zelda is stronger. The match would be a lot closer now.
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#232 | The_Djoker | Posted 9/3/2013 3:10:12 PM | message detail | (edited)
I don't know why people expect Sonic to be strong. He hasn't been relevant for 20 years. And he was awful in Brawl.

When you're most 3D game is SA2. You know you've got problems. Sonics popularity comes purely from his amazing 2D era.
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#233 | GloryChaos | Posted 9/3/2013 3:14:10 PM | message detail
B-But Colors and Generations (even though the classic stages weren't as good as they could have been).

I don't see Kirby having a chance in hell of beating Big Boss. While I would like to see more Noble Nine members fall before the finals, I'm probably just going to vote on a toss up. All three characters are fine by me (I have trouble acknowledging anything that isn't FF VII Sephiroth).
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#234 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/3/2013 3:18:16 PM | message detail
Eh, we've seen Kirby overperform in these setups before. I won't be too surprised if he wins. Dum pink ball got 42% on Solid Snake and a leeched Cloud in 2008 in large part due to standing out like crazy. With a weaker version of Cloud and a weaker version of Snake in the upcoming match, he can do it.
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#235 | xp1337 | Posted 9/3/2013 3:20:56 PM | message detail
guys the fabled mgs/ff overlap

is about to strike

think about it

samus > mario, 10000 votes, everything we once talked about years ago is coming true
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#236 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/3/2013 3:27:59 PM | message detail
FF/MGS overlap is real. We saw it confirmed as early as the battle Royale. Cloud got 55% of Snake's votes.
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#237 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/3/2013 3:29:32 PM | message detail
Yeah, it's not a devastating overlap, but in a close match it could pretty clearly cost Sephiroth/Big Boss against Kirby. There's a reason I give Kirby a higher chance of pulling it out despite decisively favoring BB 1v1.
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#238 | The_Djoker | Posted 9/3/2013 3:30:59 PM | message detail
Kirby will win tomorrow unfortunately. Love Kirby but for the good of the contest. Seph needs to progress. Kirby/Mewtwo/Draven would be terrible. Basiclaly SFF and Draven crushing harder than Round 2. If seph was there. You'd have two legit strong characters in MEwtwo.Seph with distinct fanbases trying to take down the Troll.
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#239 | xp1337 | Posted 9/3/2013 3:31:08 PM | message detail
I've got Kirby too! More for standout, but that's kind of related in my mind!

I'd love to talk myself into Big Boss though. Or even Sephiroth!
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#240 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/3/2013 3:33:09 PM | message detail
I kind of want Kirby to win just to see how stupidly bad he and Mewtwo are gonna look next round when Draven obliterates them. The hero GameFAQs deserves.
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#241 | xp1337 | Posted 9/3/2013 3:34:07 PM | message detail
The_Djoker posted...
Kirby will win tomorrow unfortunately. Love Kirby but for the good of the contest. Seph needs to progress. Kirby/Mewtwo/Draven would be terrible. Basiclaly SFF and Draven crushing harder than Round 2. If seph was there. You'd have two legit strong characters in MEwtwo.Seph with distinct fanbases trying to take down the Troll.

That's to Draven's advantage. You want someone very strong and someone who can/will fold so all those votes go to the other character. Not two strong independent characters.

It's half the reason Link was the best chance. Shepard was clearly going to be a non-factor so he could mostly get out of the way and let Link be Link. Honestly, he held up better than I thought he would!
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#242 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/3/2013 3:35:43 PM | message detail
Two independent characters, whatever the strength, is still better than two same-fanbase characters of similar strength. Even if Draven has ANOTHER huge dropoff in rally support to the point where he'd be vulnerable against Mewtwo or somebody, it's not gonna matter if Kirby advances.
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#243 | xp1337 | Posted 9/3/2013 3:37:59 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Two independent characters, whatever the strength, is still better than two same-fanbase characters of similar strength. Even if Draven has ANOTHER huge dropoff in rally support to the point where he'd be vulnerable against Mewtwo or somebody, it's not gonna matter if Kirby advances.

Really? I'd think we could at least hope that the fanbase bails on one for the other.

I mean, I wouldn't expect it to, but it's something at least!
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GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#244 | Scarlettail | Posted 9/3/2013 3:38:49 PM | message detail
This'll be my favorite match if Kirby wins, but I support BB too.
#245 | Kibago | Posted 9/3/2013 3:41:01 PM | message detail
yeah, the ideal anti-Draven match is probably something like Draven/Squirtle/Chester.
a 3rd with no strength at all and a 2nd who is strong, not anti-voted (Squirtle would get less of these than the other Pokemon,) can be rallied, and would himself be bandwagonable.

Draven/Mewtwo/Sephiroth is...okay. way better than any Finals combination we can get.
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#246 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/3/2013 3:43:37 PM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Two independent characters, whatever the strength, is still better than two same-fanbase characters of similar strength. Even if Draven has ANOTHER huge dropoff in rally support to the point where he'd be vulnerable against Mewtwo or somebody, it's not gonna matter if Kirby advances.

Really? I'd think we could at least hope that the fanbase bails on one for the other.

I mean, I wouldn't expect it to, but it's something at least!


On the one hand, you have a Pokemon.
On the other hand, you have Kirby. The only character outside of Link and Cloud to appear in every contest and never be held under 44.99% in a 1v1 poll.

...yeah.
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#247 | xp1337 | Posted 9/3/2013 3:52:35 PM | message detail | (edited)
I don't mean Mewtwo/Kirby specifically! I'm talking generalized here!

I can't really bring myself to think about who is the "best" winner there from a beat Draven standpoint because I don't believe any of them make it even vaguely plausible!

Well, I guess ideal is Big Boss who then gets pic screwed.

in every pic
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#248 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/3/2013 3:49:00 PM | message detail
Yeah Big Boss winning and then getting collectively sabotaged is the ideal circumstance. He's shown to be weaker than Shepard was last match in that eventuality, leaving Mewtwo bandwagoned and unhindered. Still way off the mark from Link so it would require another drop in rally power, but not impossible.

It will be tough for BB to pull it out, though. That 15% chance I gave him is probably 5% fanboyism. <_<
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#249 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/3/2013 3:51:17 PM | message detail
If we get a Year of Luigi boost and Sephiroth chokes he'll be fine.
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Points: 119/171 Today's Pick: Sonic
#250 | creativename | Posted 9/3/2013 3:51:49 PM | message detail
I'm surprised to see everyone bashing Sonic here.

Unless you think Phoenix Wright would trample Bowser, these results are not to be taken seriously.

Sonic and Bowser are clearly LFFing each other to death. Sonic would beat Mewtwo 1v1.

Which is not to say Sonic is strong, but he isn't the chump people are making him out to be.
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