Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1152

#1 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/3/2013 3:09:33 AM | message detail
Time to return to normalcy.

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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#2 | Pram_the_Oracle | Posted 9/3/2013 3:10:34 AM | message detail
Shaaaaammmeeeee

That was ridiculously exciting
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Natwaf will win this year's Guru Contest! (Yeah Right)
#3 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/3/2013 3:12:13 AM | message detail
Can anyone tell me the vote differences? Draven's max lead was 6144. How much did Link bring that down before Draven managed to go up again? And by how much? And Link bring it down to around 735 votes.
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#4 | xp1337 | Posted 9/3/2013 3:13:10 AM | message detail
Big Boss is going to have his hands full with Sephiroth, or more distressingly, Kirby!
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#5 | Pram_the_Oracle | Posted 9/3/2013 3:13:29 AM | message detail
765 wasn't it?
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Natwaf will win this year's Guru Contest! (Yeah Right)
#6 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/3/2013 3:18:58 AM | message detail | (edited)

http://i.imgur.com/IWGCYry.png (Values in red are when the site was down) Using the 60 minutes before the downtime (and
using an extra update because Draven spiked
there,so let's give an advantage)
From 11:11 to 12:16,Draven got 1500 votes
(23.076 per minute)
From 11:11 to 12:16,Link got 2537 votes (39.03 per minute) Site went down after the 12:16 update,but some
people still were able to submit votes
Even after it went back up,there was a weak update
and we calculcate it as part of the downtime From 12:16 to 13:51,Draven got 463 votes (5.1444
votes per minute)
From 12:16 to 13:51,Link got 938 votes (10.422
per minute) Using the votes per minute before the
downtime,and considering the downtime was 90
minutes (Allen says 85,but clearly those 5 minutes
got less votes than before)
Draven - 90*23.076 = 2077
Link - 90*39.03=3513 Using the downtime data
Draven - 2077-463=1614
Link - 3513-938=2575 If the match continued like normal,we are looking
for 1614 missing Draven votes during 90 minutes
of downtime and 2575 missing votes from Link
This gap of 961 votes in Link favor and the final
lead of 765 clearly suggests Link could win this Adding the 3 updates post downtime are actually
increasing the gap to 999 in favor of Link,so let's
not go there - we already have a solid case


Will repost this until someone bring a better way to confirm Link 100 lost because of downtime

Edit-mobile copypaste owned this ah
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/67148515/756722991
#7 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/3/2013 3:18:23 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
Big Boss is going to have his hands full with Sephiroth, or more distressingly, Kirby!


Honestly a smart Expert pick for tomorrow would be Bank > Bank > Sephiroth...!
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#8 | xp1337 | Posted 9/3/2013 3:21:13 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
xp1337 posted...
Big Boss is going to have his hands full with Sephiroth, or more distressingly, Kirby!


Honestly a smart Expert pick for tomorrow would be Bank > Bank > Sephiroth...!

Actually it's Kirby > Big Boss > Sephiroth!

I'm 0-3 in matches I try to focus on to ignore my crushing apathy over the events of the contest!

And I don't really have an opinion here other than "As long as it isn't Kirby!" Kirby has this locked down now!
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#9 | lightning-02 | Posted 9/3/2013 3:25:56 AM | message detail
Gonna start the rally for Sonic
#10 | LeonhartFour (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/3/2013 3:26:08 AM | message detail
Trend chart:

Time | Link | Shepard | Draven | Votes | Demographic
EBV | 37.28% | 9.45% | 53.27% | 794 | (0:00-0:05)
PHV | 40.89% | 12.09% | 47.02% | 13999 | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 36.90% | 11.38% | 51.72% | 29514 | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 39.05% | 13.63% | 47.33% | 10685 | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 50.82% | 14.88% | 34.30% | 19330 | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 46.83% | 9.63% | 43.53% | 38464 | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 50.76% | 7.37% | 41.87% | 10008 | (22:00-24:00)

Since this gets asked every year:

EBV = Early Board Vote
PHV = Power Hour Vote
FNV = First Night Vote
BSV = Before School Vote
DSV = During School Vote
ASV = After School Vote
SNV = Second Night Vote

And this terminology applies regardless of whether it's a school day or not.

X-Stats:

Draven – 50.00%
Link – 49.65%
Jak – 45.06%
Chie Satonaka – 39.42%
Raiden – 26.91%
Waluigi – 23.54%
Yoshi – 22.77%
Mega Man X – 22.36%
Commander Shepard – 20.25%
Aerith Gainsborough – 19.73%
Ryu – 17.72%
Isaac BOI – 17.33%
Captain Olimar – 14.31%
Tingle – 14.04%
Solaire of Astora – 13.39%
Hero – 13.24%
Tharja – 12.59%
Tiny Tina – 12.43%
Rinoa Heartilly – 12.36%
Jigglypuff – 12.03%
Yuri Lowell – 11.33%
Juliet Starling – 11.07%
Alan Wake – 9.67%
Kain – 9.47%
Demi-Fiend – 9.09%
Face McShooty – 8.38%
Welkin Gunther – 6.34%

Draven's prediction percentage was 1.19%
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#11 | xp1337 | Posted 9/3/2013 3:28:23 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
DSV | 50.82%

With the downtime!

what a champ
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#12 | Pram_the_Oracle | Posted 9/3/2013 3:30:26 AM | message detail
Woah, Jak is 3rd.

Was wondering whether he was going to be 2nd or not, for the votals for the first round.
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Natwaf will win this year's Guru Contest! (Yeah Right)
#13 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/3/2013 3:34:28 AM | message detail
1.19%. So that means that if Draven wins the final round he will still have higher prediction than L-Block.
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#14 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/3/2013 3:36:18 AM | message detail
lightning-02 posted...
Gonna start the rally for Sonic


Stop it
Why?
#15 | ArtosRC | Posted 9/3/2013 3:40:33 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Will repost this until someone bring a better way to confirm Link 100 lost because of downtime


SBAllen posted...
The results of tonight's contest are final


http://i.imgur.com/gBu4lct.jpg




psdealwithitmore
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#16 | StealThisSheen | Posted 9/3/2013 3:57:04 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
lightning-02 posted...
Gonna start the rally for Sonic


Stop it
Why?


No. Don't stop. Rally away!
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#17 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/3/2013 4:04:57 AM | message detail
If Sonic needs a mega rally to deal with Mewtwo he is not worth advancing

A NN should have no reason to lose this
Even if Bowser in the poll,it's still worse performance than Crono and we all can agree Magus leech Crono harder
Either Mewtwo is insanly strong or Sonic is pathetic plain and simple
A noble niner doing worse than Crono? Are you honestly rallying this...?
Save it for Big Boss if you really want to "revenge rally" against Allen
#18 | lightning-02 | Posted 9/3/2013 4:07:58 AM | message detail
Nobody will support Sephiroth or Pokemon, Sonic is the only option against Draven on this side of the bracket.
He overlaps a lot with Mario characters, this has been seen plenty of times in the past.
#19 | iGenesis | Posted 9/3/2013 4:08:26 AM | message detail
Sonic >lolpokemon
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#20 | Yuri_LowelI | Posted 9/3/2013 4:20:02 AM | message detail
Igenesis butthurt is pathetic icon is made to look like the midcarder he is.
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#21 | xp1337 | Posted 9/3/2013 4:20:06 AM | message detail
So, how many Stats Topics was that match? The very end of 1142 to about halfway through 1151?

impressive
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#22 | SockoDeus | Posted 9/3/2013 4:25:12 AM | message detail
Since when is Mewtwo so strong?
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#23 | ArtosRC | Posted 9/3/2013 4:25:52 AM | message detail
SockoDeus posted...
Since when is Mewtwo so strong?


Since Gen I.
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#24 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/3/2013 4:27:49 AM | message detail
Obviously Mega Mewtwo boost
#25 | kurtfisto | Posted 9/3/2013 4:30:03 AM | message detail
Phoenix Wright to be a high midcarder in a few years
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#26 | xp1337 | Posted 9/3/2013 4:30:47 AM | message detail
Assuming constant Sonic where is Vincent at?

FFVII deboost DESTROYED
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
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#27 | Janus5000 | Posted 9/3/2013 4:30:48 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
So, how many Stats Topics was that match? The very end of 1142 to about halfway through 1151?

impressive


any match that gets professional wrestlers to rally on twitter probably merits that many, honestly
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#28 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 9/3/2013 4:31:59 AM | message detail
I'm amazed at how badly Sonic is doing here. Zelda went even with Charizard. Even Crono, weighed down by Magus and in an unfavourable timeframe, put 46% on Pikachu. Unless he's being heavily leeched by Bowser while Mewtwo stands independent, which while possible, would be quite amazing.
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#29 | xp1337 | Posted 9/3/2013 4:33:40 AM | message detail
Janus5000 posted...
xp1337 posted...
So, how many Stats Topics was that match? The very end of 1142 to about halfway through 1151?

impressive


any match that gets professional wrestlers to rally on twitter probably merits that many, honestly

You know, when I was reading the topics I missed, when that happened I almost started laughing.

you guys saving the craziest stuff for after i left =(
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#30 | Janus5000 | Posted 9/3/2013 4:34:04 AM | message detail
It wouldn't surprise me if Sonic just dropped, given that he faced fodder/unknowns and the rest of Sonic Team (sans Robotnik, of all people) didn't look very good.
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#31 | SockoDeus | Posted 9/3/2013 4:34:16 AM | message detail
ArtosRC posted...
SockoDeus posted...
Since when is Mewtwo so strong?


Since Gen I.


Hilarious. I'll rephrase: How does Mewtwo go from losing in Round 1 to Ganondorf to beating Sonic and Bowser?
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#32 | xp1337 | Posted 9/3/2013 4:35:10 AM | message detail
Janus5000 posted...
It wouldn't surprise me if Sonic just dropped, given that he faced fodder/unknowns and the rest of Sonic Team (sans Robotnik, of all people) didn't look very good.

Very possible! I just want to see where Vincent is if we assume it though!
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#33 | lightning-02 | Posted 9/3/2013 4:40:22 AM | message detail
/v/ mods are deleting threads for some reason today, so I guess thats not happening.
#34 | Lopen | Posted 9/3/2013 4:42:11 AM | message detail
I think the worst part of this match is that if you take it at face value it means that Phoenix Wright would give Sonic a run straight up.

I'm not sure if that automatically means we should take it as a sham or be super disappointed that Phoenix Wright didn't draw Sonic.
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#35 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/3/2013 4:42:33 AM | message detail
Assuming Mewtwo beats Draven and is the champion,is there any chance Chester is not the weakest in the x stats?
#36 | Lopen | Posted 9/3/2013 4:44:27 AM | message detail
If Mewtwo beats Draven Welkin Gunther is probably the weakest guy in the stats due to being fodder behind the Ryu/MMX fluke match
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#37 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/3/2013 4:45:02 AM | message detail
Janus5000 posted...
It wouldn't surprise me if Sonic just dropped, given that he faced fodder/unknowns and the rest of Sonic Team (sans Robotnik, of all people) didn't look very good.


Well but Ike turned out to be terrible
But then MM overperform so maybe Protoman is strong
So im not sure
#38 | xp1337 | Posted 9/3/2013 4:45:04 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Assuming Mewtwo beats Draven and is the champion,is there any chance Chester is not the weakest in the x stats?

IIRC back during Chester's match the word was "Unless Mewtwo is at about Sephiroth or better..."

uh oh
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GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#39 | xp1337 | Posted 9/3/2013 4:45:46 AM | message detail
That was for Tanner though. Just within this contest, dunno!
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#40 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/3/2013 4:48:36 AM | message detail
It's pretty clear Phoenix Wright boosted a bit, and Mewtwo is now Link-level in strength.

Watch out, Draven? More like watch out, Snake!

Dream final is still Big Boss/Snake/Mega Man, though. I'll take L-Block in the blue bomber's place, too, but Mega Man getting a win over a LFFed Snake would be fantastic.
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#41 | xp1337 | Posted 9/3/2013 4:50:36 AM | message detail
Big Boss to rSFF Snake off MGSV hype!

big boss taking this contest our last chance at redemption
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
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#42 | jacko_vdz | Posted 9/3/2013 4:50:52 AM | message detail
SockoDeus posted...
ArtosRC posted...
SockoDeus posted...
Since when is Mewtwo so strong?


Since Gen I.


Hilarious. I'll rephrase: How does Mewtwo go from losing in Round 1 to Ganondorf to beating Sonic and Bowser?


Someone (I think it was yoblazer) said something along the lines of Pikachu = Charizard = Mewtwo = Squirtle (and to an extent Magikarp). They're all pretty similar in strength because of their status as Gen 1 icons. Most Pokemon RBY fans have good feelings for most of the Gen 1 pokemon, since they all originate in the same game, and are all interchangeable party members.

If Squirtle beats Cloud, or at least does well against him, this pretty much reaffirms this idea.

Unless you want to think weird things like Mewtwo>Charizard by a good margin. It's easier to call Zard's R2 match as a weird all nintendo SFF match. I don't think Zard would be doing any worse here, nor do I think Mewtwo would do better on Zelda.

So yeah, Pokemon's just boosted a ton, but Zelda probably still SFFs it a bit (e.g. Ganon/Mewtwo 2010, Zard/Zelda).
#43 | xp1337 | Posted 9/3/2013 4:53:23 AM | message detail
You know, I'm really not sure what I should take from this match.

After Squirtle/Dante and Pikachu/Crono I just took Pokemon in every match. Then Missingno lost and I was like "Well, huh." then Charizard got exposed and I bailed on the Pokemon choices and went back to Sonic and Cloud.

now what?
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#44 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/3/2013 4:53:35 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
Big Boss to rSFF Snake off MGSV hype!

big boss taking this contest our last chance at redemption


I take what I said back. Big Boss beating Snake in the finals would utterly fantastic and hilarious.

Also, all Pokemon aren't the same. Look at Missingno and Jigglypuff bombing. I think Mewtwo's boosted hard for some reason, while Charizard lost a step or so. Squirtle's beastly, Pikachu's Pikachu, and the trainers are pretty buffed up from the Rivalry Rumble.

I predict Charizard will still lose to Mega Man, even with Zero in the match. If you think that makes no sense, well, have you seen the rest of this contest?
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#45 | eaglesarebeasts | Posted 9/3/2013 5:00:44 AM | message detail
This result is more upsetting than yesterdays match. I really hate how all these Pokemon are so strong all of a sudden. I'd rather have Draven win this whole thing than Mewtwo, Charizard, Squirtle, etc.

And another shout out to Link on an awesome performance yesterday.
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#46 | Jump_Man7 | Posted 9/3/2013 5:00:57 AM | message detail
yeah, Mega Man beating Charizard wouldn't be the most surprising thing we've seen
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#47 | Lopen | Posted 9/3/2013 5:02:29 AM | message detail
I'd actually get behind that as well. If Pokemon are our chosen savior vs Draven I'm siding with Draven there. Pokedominance way more annoying than blatant Draven cheating.
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#48 | Averia | Posted 9/3/2013 5:03:46 AM | message detail
It could be worse, it could be blatant pokemon cheating.
#49 | Lopen | Posted 9/3/2013 5:05:29 AM | message detail
You mean MissingNo? Yeah that was kinda bad.
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#50 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/3/2013 5:07:57 AM | message detail
As for the rest of the matches, I think Snake, Mega Man, and maybe Samus are the only N9ers that will make it. Big Boss and Kirby could both challenge Sephiroth, but I think it will fall BB > Seph > Kirby since BB has a huge hype wagon propelling him thanks to MGS5. I also think Squirtle's got a lot of momentum going on here and may be one of the strongest Pokemon we have, so I think he may give a weakened heavily anti-voted Cloud a nice beat-down. As for Samus, it mainly comes down to whether L-Block can keep it close, and that thing is always unpredictable. It could dominate or completely bomb, and neither would surprise me. Hell, neither would Tifa somehow getting a win, since nobody seems to hate Tifa, probably for a couple of reasons.

Red's got his match unless Vivi gets a rally or Squall somehow SFFs Vivi into oblivion, and Sora has his match unless he's weakened a lot or one of the Pokemon entrants can SFF the other into oblivion.

This contest still has a lot to look forward to. Draven has shown he's mortal and can be defeated, and we still have a huge amount of unknowns to tackle. And who the hell knows who will show up in the finals at this point, let alone who may win!
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