Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1147

#1 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 9/2/2013 12:01:28 PM | message detail
Please support Link!

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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"You are insects railing against the heavens. Your actions will change nothing." - Uhai, Fire Emblem 7
#2 | lightning-02 | Posted 9/2/2013 12:01:40 PM | message detail
Reminder that Allen went out of his way to advertise this contest to Reddit.
Reminder that he doesn't give a damn about how much they dictate terms in it.

http://www.reddit.com/r/gaming/comments/1g816h/the_great_gamefaqs_character_battle_ix/
#3 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/2/2013 12:02:37 PM | message detail | (edited)
147
152
159
125
166
146
145
169
174
193
207
236
265
246


Nope not suspicious at all.
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Main_Page, Rest in peace Kazbar :(
#4 | wg64Z | Posted 9/2/2013 12:02:35 PM | message detail
We could always make MORE rallying topics on reddit, downvote them all, and that way any and ALL rallying topics would be deleted.

I dunno guys, I'm grasping at straws now...
#5 | Scarlettail | Posted 9/2/2013 12:02:36 PM | message detail
Maybe we can move on now. Hopefully r/pokemon is still receptive to a topic for Mewtwo.
#6 | Naved007 | Posted 9/2/2013 12:02:56 PM | message detail
The link for 5 minute updates should be in the first post.

What is that link lol
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#7 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 9/2/2013 12:02:56 PM | message detail
Beaten by 22 seconds.

I'm not going to delete the other topic though, because "DDoS Edition" needed to be used.
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Something something something
^Poorly disguised anti-caps sig
#8 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 9/2/2013 12:03:09 PM | message detail
"The results are accurate. Link was caught stuffing 5 to 1. Also, the rumored "DDOS Attack" was unscheduled server maintenance. Thanks, and have fun."
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Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (is also Yoblazer)
http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif
#9 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/2/2013 12:03:24 PM | message detail
You know what?If Snake had the same updates in the final versus Link can you tell me how many of you would complain?Seriously.That is getting ridiculous.
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
#10 | TheOceIot | Posted 9/2/2013 12:03:28 PM | message detail
This will be the last contest ever if Allen lets this slide because this board helps out a fair amount with the contests, between match pics, nominations and whatever else, and nobody is going to want to help in the future if he lets this crap slide.
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you just can't live in that negative way...make way for the positive day
#11 | Averia | Posted 9/2/2013 12:03:39 PM | message detail
http://forums.na.leagueoflegends.com/board/showthread.php?t=3827011

This topic went from 1600 views to 3600 in 10 minutes.
It might actually be legit (and that makes it scarier)
#12 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 9/2/2013 12:04:07 PM | message detail
I guess legitimacy had to go out the window sometime.

Ah well. See y'all when Sega rises again tonight.
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[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
#13 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 9/2/2013 12:04:10 PM | message detail
People really overestimate how busy the LoL subreddit actually is.
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best Game Ever" Contest
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Main_Page, Rest in peace Kazbar :(
#14 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 9/2/2013 12:04:22 PM | message detail
So question for those keeping count:

Was that 265 Draven's best update? Because if it was even close there is no longer any way to pin this on rallying, it's stuffing, pure and simple.
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Something something something
^Poorly disguised anti-caps sig
#15 | backinblack167 | Posted 9/2/2013 12:04:33 PM | message detail
The official LoL forum rally pretty much ends the match, I think.
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sc2us: MileS.151
#16 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/2/2013 12:04:44 PM | message detail
The potential for cheating has always been in these contests, every match. There are obviously matches that have been decided by it. They've decided the winner of entire contests!

And my favorite characters are usually the beneficiaries! But that doesn't mean I like it.
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Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
#17 | lightning-02 | Posted 9/2/2013 12:04:46 PM | message detail
Scarlettail posted...
Maybe we can move on now. Hopefully r/pokemon is still receptive to a topic for Mewtwo.


They won't be allowed make blatant rallying threads anymore, only subtle ones not direct linking which will hurt a lot. Sonic/Mewtwo/Sephiroth/Squirtle should win in the next round, rallying somebody else at this stage would be destroying the contest for everyone. Draven may win this but he won't win the contest, not now.
#18 | RockMFR | Posted 9/2/2013 12:04:52 PM | message detail
Damn it.
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Be a good little washing machine, now... o_0
#19 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/2/2013 12:05:15 PM | message detail | (edited)
#20 | xp1337 | Posted 9/2/2013 12:05:15 PM | message detail
We using this topic?

The way this match is going we might as well skip ahead to the Bacon announcement.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#21 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/2/2013 12:05:23 PM | message detail
Lightning Strikes posted...
So question for those keeping count:

Was that 265 Draven's best update? Because if it was even close there is no longer any way to pin this on rallying, it's stuffing, pure and simple.


That was Draven's best update by overall votes since getting 276 votes on the 3:11 AM update.
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#22 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/2/2013 12:06:00 PM | message detail
I just realized that if Sephiroth doesn't choke tomorrow he's gonna make the final 9.
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Die young and save yourself.
Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work.
#23 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 9/2/2013 12:06:14 PM | message detail
Draven got back to his Empowered form again. Would he have been able to if there'd been no DDOS and Link had continued to savage him in his Exhausted form continuously? Who can say.
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We are living our lives
Abound with so much information
#24 | swordz9 | Posted 9/2/2013 12:06:18 PM | message detail
I like how Draven is 20k+ behind his R2 total despite this current match being longer and seemingly having a lot more rallies. I wonder if Draven's next match will have another loser attack the site.
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#25 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 9/2/2013 12:06:26 PM | message detail
Also, about that forum rally:

No way that explains these votes. We've seen forum threads get 7000 views and only produce 700 votes total. Draven must have sourced AT LEAST 1500 from somewhere. Along with the DDoS, that's why it looks so suspicious. No way everyone who looks in that thread is voting Draven. That's what this would take.
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Something something something
^Poorly disguised anti-caps sig
#26 | SubDeity | Posted 9/2/2013 12:06:35 PM | message detail
The forum thread has outright bribery which is what makes it scary. Our best hope is that LOL's general forum is only so active and this will die off in time.
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"Hamas isn't really a terror organization." -Terran [Evil Republican]
Play Der Langrisser.
#27 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/2/2013 12:06:40 PM | message detail
Also expecting that pondlife Kanz to come back after being conspicuously silent all afternoon.
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Die young and save yourself.
Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work.
#28 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/2/2013 12:06:54 PM | message detail
Come on Draven do it!Save us from Link!But what exactly is a DDOS attack?
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
#29 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/2/2013 12:07:13 PM | message detail
lmao

Now Draven's doing to Link what Link was doing to Draven.
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Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64
#30 | Zylothewolf | Posted 9/2/2013 12:07:34 PM | message detail
So they really thought the match only was 12 hours long? Wow I thought no trolls were that stupid.
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Ngamer64: Zylo, you're making less sense every day. SuperNiceDog > Me
#31 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 9/2/2013 12:07:49 PM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
Come on Draven do it!Save us from Link!But what exactly is a DDOS attack?


Distributed Denial of Service attack, it's where a bunch of people with their own servers do something to clog up the site and make it shut down. Anonymous are famous for it. You can look up more on Wikipedia.
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Die young and save yourself.
Brace for the G's, and fast heel-toe work.
#32 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/2/2013 12:08:09 PM | message detail
Can we just blame the DDoS attack on Kanz and let him be banned as a result?
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Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy II - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3557012
Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64
#33 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 9/2/2013 12:08:17 PM | message detail
Even if this eventually stops, Draven's doing what he needs to. Going to be really hard for Link to come back if this continues for a while.
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#34 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/2/2013 12:08:28 PM | message detail
It's annoying how much we lack info about LoL votes
In Reddit,we can know how many people are online,but not how many are clicking the link to the poll
In LoL forums,we can know how many people are viewing the topic,but we don't know how much online

3600 in 3 hours is still not a scary number,we are talking about people that might have already voted today or just reading the topic again
#35 | rh000001 | Posted 9/2/2013 12:08:51 PM | message detail
It's quite possible that the LoL forum and Reddit will constantly bump the threads to maintain a rally that can't be beaten, the LoL forum even attaching a chance to win a monetary prize. It just stinks how the DDOS obviously hurt Link's chances to win quite a bit.
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#36 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/2/2013 12:09:06 PM | message detail
Snake could honestly beat post-Link Draven, considering the state he's likely to be in, but probably not with Samus/L-Block in the match.
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Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
#37 | Scarlettail | Posted 9/2/2013 12:09:07 PM | message detail
lightning-02 posted...
Scarlettail posted...
Maybe we can move on now. Hopefully r/pokemon is still receptive to a topic for Mewtwo.


They won't be allowed make blatant rallying threads anymore, only subtle ones not direct linking which will hurt a lot. Sonic/Mewtwo/Sephiroth/Squirtle should win in the next round, rallying somebody else at this stage would be destroying the contest for everyone. Draven may win this but he won't win the contest, not now.


Alas, they seemed to enjoy the previous rallies for Charizard and Squirtle. I also don't see how Draven won't win the contest, as this will happen with each match.
#38 | SubDeity | Posted 9/2/2013 12:09:11 PM | message detail
No way that explains these votes. We've seen forum threads get 7000 views and only produce 700 votes total. Draven must have sourced AT LEAST 1500 from somewhere. Along with the DDoS, that's why it looks so suspicious. No way everyone who looks in that thread is voting Draven. That's what this would take.

Well, keep in mind he's getting a base of 140 or so, so the rally only needs to be about half his vote intake.
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"Hamas isn't really a terror organization." -Terran [Evil Republican]
Play Der Langrisser.
#39 | KamikazePotato | Posted 9/2/2013 12:09:26 PM | message detail
DDoSing and extremely blatant stuffing?

Yikes. What a match.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#40 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/2/2013 12:09:26 PM | message detail
rh000001 posted...
It's quite possible that the LoL forum and Reddit will constantly bump the threads to maintain a rally that can't be beaten, the LoL forum even attaching a chance to win a monetary prize. It just stinks how the DDOS obviously hurt Link's chances to win quite a bit.


"you people care too much about these contests!"
*bribes people to vote for Draven*
#41 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/2/2013 12:10:11 PM | message detail | (edited)
Bacon confirms it's (probably) not a DDoS attack.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/67143451

e: And everything's looking legit vote-wise so far.
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Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64
#42 | xp1337 | Posted 9/2/2013 12:09:36 PM | message detail
Bacon saying the downtime was likely coincidental and the votes are legit.

show of hands who is surprised here
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GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#43 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 9/2/2013 12:09:52 PM | message detail
This is like a DBZ fight, where one guy beats the ever-loving hell out of his enemy, then one of them transforms (or devolves) and the whole thing flips for a couple of episodes. Then there's a big interruption just as the good guy looks like he's about to win, buying the baddie time to recover and plan.
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We are living our lives
Abound with so much information
#44 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 9/2/2013 12:10:04 PM | message detail
PERFECTLY LEGITMATE
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Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (is also Yoblazer)
http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif
#45 | WellThoughtName | Posted 9/2/2013 12:10:26 PM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
Bacon pretends it's (probably) not a DDoS attack.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/8-gamefaqs-contests/67143451

e: And everything's looking legit vote-wise so far.


Fix'd.
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#46 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/2/2013 12:10:35 PM | message detail
And as I was afraid of,the rally topic in the subreddit is not at the 7th spot
No need to scroll down - you enter the reddit and see it
#47 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 9/2/2013 12:12:00 PM | message detail
Well, not like anything changed.

We're just back to what we assumed was going to happen before the match started.

Link just decided to give us an interesting show in the progress. Remember to show your appreciation
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
#48 | lightning-02 | Posted 9/2/2013 12:12:41 PM | message detail
So the DDOS is a coincidence at a convenient time when the rally threads were deleted and there has been absolutely no stuffing whatsoever in any of these controversial Draven matches while there was a nefarious act of 97 votes stuffed for Guybrush?

I just don't know anymore.
#49 | __hiei__ | Posted 9/2/2013 12:13:14 PM | message detail
not much to do anymore

last thing i can think of is go to their subredit and spam a ton of draven rally topics to get the mods attention so maybe they'll mass delete everything including the legit ones.
#50 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 9/2/2013 12:13:30 PM | message detail
Also I don't really think Allen has any reason to lie so whatever.
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.