Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1145

#451 | raginbull911 | Posted 9/2/2013 8:30:11 AM | message detail
Your reaction when Link comes back to take the lead in the last hour, but loses when Allen removes 2000 stuffed votes from him?
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#452 | 2Dover3D | Posted 9/2/2013 8:30:13 AM | message detail
#453 | creativename | Posted 9/2/2013 8:30:16 AM | message detail
I mean really, nearly ALL logic was pointing towards Link making a massive comeback here.

It was obvious that Draven would dominate overnight and I estimated him to have a 7K vote lead by 8am. Yet logic still pointed to Link winning - the difference in base strength between the two is so massive, so gargantuan, that once the day vote hit logic dictated that Link would savage Draven.

But people couldn't see the logic for the trees, I guess. When Link was down "on paper" so early on people just bailed.

Another thing that's funny is that if people were thinking with their hearts, they would have had more faith in Link. Instead they thought with their heads but their hearts had superior logic! :P
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#454 | ZeldaTPLink | Posted 9/2/2013 8:30:18 AM | message detail
Link has the Biggoron Sword, the Fierce Deity Mask and the Magic Armor.

He wants blood, and he wants it now. Draven has woken up a force that he couldn't control.
#455 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 9/2/2013 8:30:24 AM | message detail
It is worth emphasising that this isn't all Link, Draven has dropped A LOT. Which is why stuffing is somewhat unlikely.
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#456 | nintendogirl2 | Posted 9/2/2013 8:31:09 AM | message detail
(Reposting)

In the last five minutes, Link has cut 140 votes per update. At this rate, Link wins by 16399 votes.
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#457 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/2/2013 8:31:20 AM | message detail
Only a 50 vote cut
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#458 | Julian_Caesar | Posted 9/2/2013 8:31:40 AM | message detail
lightning-02 posted...
creativename posted...
I remember last night when I said I liked the way things looked for Link even though he was over 1K behind already, and everybody jumped on me. I said Link could be down 7K by morning and win going away.

Only HM and xp seemed to keep the faith - despite logic being heavily on the side of Link making a Herculean effort at a comeback.

Well, the match ain't over yet and Draven can still get rallied, but Link is the favorite here.

Told ya' so ^_^


Why would he be the favourite when he did the same 1000 vote cut against L-Block at the same time and still lost by 7000?
Rallies can always start again when they need to and Link is exiting his best time 4800 behind, you'd want to be a serious optimist to think the situation looks favourable for him.


Link's not exiting his best time, he's still in full swing. Morning vote is late/protracted today in US because it's a national holiday from school AND work, Labor Day. Could easily last until 1:30-2pm EST, or later even.

Also, this rally is different from L-Block. The Power Hour showed that even with a massively rallied Draven, a large portion of his votes still go to Link, not to mention that the rally isn't as strong as his R2 rally in terms of overall votes (for whatever reason). While he can definitely stall Link and even somewhat build a lead, I'm not so sure he can pull away like L-Block did.
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#459 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/2/2013 8:31:40 AM | message detail
And right after that 259 vote update, Link goes back down to a 184 vote update.
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#460 | Heroic Viktor | Posted 9/2/2013 8:31:53 AM | message detail
mikisho posted...
Ok.... I'm going to say, there is likely some Vote stuffing going on in Link's favour, because that update was.... wow....


In a match this big, with it being 830 in our most populous state, it is not that much of a stretch for the strongest natural charcter to have random massive inflows. I wouldnt expect 140 gains sustained unless Draven goes under 100, but it is statistically probable for it to occur a few times given the timing.
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#461 | mikisho | Posted 9/2/2013 8:31:58 AM | message detail
50 cut... that's far more reasonable....
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#462 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/2/2013 8:32:05 AM | message detail
Link needs an average of 31.27 votes an update to tie
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Points: 119/162 Today's Pick: Link
#463 | nintendogirl2 | Posted 9/2/2013 8:32:10 AM | message detail
Link needs 31 votes per update to win.
In the last half hour, Link has cut 80 votes per update. At this rate, Link wins by 7334 votes.
In the last hour, Link has cut 68 votes per update. At this rate, Link wins by 5484 votes.
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#464 | The Mana Sword | Posted 9/2/2013 8:32:27 AM | message detail
guys it can't be vote stuffing remember Bacon has it covered

jeeze
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#465 | Bospsychopaat | Posted 9/2/2013 8:33:35 AM | message detail
So how many votes/update does Shepard need to win all of this?
#466 | xp1337 | Posted 9/2/2013 8:33:43 AM | message detail
Honestly, if Link can keep this up, I'm just not going to go to sleep. I refuse to miss this.
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#467 | KamikazePotato | Posted 9/2/2013 8:33:44 AM | message detail
At this point I just want to see a 6000 vote comeback.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#468 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/2/2013 8:33:45 AM | message detail
At least that was just a random spike rather than a sign of vote stuffing.
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#469 | mikisho | Posted 9/2/2013 8:34:03 AM | message detail
So, at the pace Link is going right now, when does he PASS Draven?
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#470 | xp1337 | Posted 9/2/2013 8:34:41 AM | message detail
nintendogirl2 posted...
In the last five minutes, Link has cut 140 votes per update. At this rate, Link wins by 16399 votes.

XD

the best
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#471 | nintendogirl2 | Posted 9/2/2013 8:34:53 AM | message detail
Bospsychopaat posted...
So how many votes/update does Shepard need to win all of this?


151.833 to tie.
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#472 | shane15 | Posted 9/2/2013 8:35:09 AM | message detail
Looks like Link borrowed HM01 off Charizard
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#473 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 9/2/2013 8:35:14 AM | message detail
Posting this here.
VideoboysaysCube posted...
Guys, I just remembered. Robin Williams named his daughter after Zelda! He's our man! *Off to Twitter*

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#474 | charmander6000 | Posted 9/2/2013 8:35:20 AM | message detail
So, at the pace Link is going right now, when does he PASS Draven?

Base off of the last 30 minutes in about 5 hours
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 119/162 Today's Pick: Link
#475 | creativename | Posted 9/2/2013 8:36:20 AM | message detail
lightning-02 posted...
creativename posted...
I remember last night when I said I liked the way things looked for Link even though he was over 1K behind already, and everybody jumped on me. I said Link could be down 7K by morning and win going away.

Only HM and xp seemed to keep the faith - despite logic being heavily on the side of Link making a Herculean effort at a comeback.

Well, the match ain't over yet and Draven can still get rallied, but Link is the favorite here.

Told ya' so ^_^


Why would he be the favourite when he did the same 1000 vote cut against L-Block at the same time and still lost by 7000?
Rallies can always start again when they need to and Link is exiting his best time 4800 behind, you'd want to be a serious optimist to think the situation looks favourable for him.

I went into great detail last night how the situation was favorable to Link.

Pretty much everything I said has come to pass. Link wasn't even down 7K, he was down 6K. I overestimated Draven if anything. Still favored Link to come back.

That wasn't "optimism". That was:

1) Understanding the base strength difference between Draven and Link

2) Knowing that the rally was strongest at the start because they had made a concerted effort, and were ready to launch a tactical nuke on us. They could not keep that momentum, and by the 2nd hour they were already starting to tail off.

3) The nuke went off. By the 2nd update, it was clear that Link survived. That changed everything.

4) This is a 24 hour match.

5) Link has a god-tier day vote.

Hence, Link to me was the favorite when to other people, things looked bleak. But they weren't bleak.
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#476 | xp1337 | Posted 9/2/2013 8:36:27 AM | message detail
Another 93.

This is incredible.
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#477 | nintendogirl2 | Posted 9/2/2013 8:36:31 AM | message detail
mikisho posted...
So, at the pace Link is going right now, when does he PASS Draven?


18.20 as of current rate on the last hour.
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#478 | mikisho | Posted 9/2/2013 8:36:41 AM | message detail
92 after a 220 vote update.
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#479 | Julian_Caesar | Posted 9/2/2013 8:36:45 AM | message detail
mikisho posted...
So, at the pace Link is going right now, when does he PASS Draven?


Just in my head, he's on pace in the last half-hour to cut 1000 votes every hour, roughly. So 4pm or so.

If we go by the last 1000 votes cut, it's more like 80 minutes...which puts it at 5:30 pm.


But again...this is Link's peak strength. If he keeps this up until evening I'll honestly be surprised. I think a more realistic time for lead change is going to be 8pm or so...plus Draven will resist when it gets close.
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#480 | Kibago | Posted 9/2/2013 8:36:48 AM | message detail
Link up to 46% on Draven now
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#481 | abdou | Posted 9/2/2013 8:36:53 AM | message detail
never thought I would rooting for Link so much
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#482 | nintendogirl2 | Posted 9/2/2013 8:37:19 AM | message detail
Link needs 31 votes per update to win.
In the last half hour, Link has cut 85 votes per update. At this rate, Link wins by 8067 votes.
In the last hour, Link has cut 72 votes per update. At this rate, Link wins by 6142 votes.
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#483 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 9/2/2013 8:38:31 AM | message detail
This is just a flat-out amazing match. I'm honored to see it go down.
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#484 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/2/2013 8:38:35 AM | message detail
I wonder when Link wins and the final will be Link-Snake-Samus who will this board support?
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#485 | mikisho | Posted 9/2/2013 8:38:49 AM | message detail
Who's making the next topic? This one's reaching the end of the line =P
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Big or small, I don't like Rabbits. They always look like they're about to say something, but they never do.
PSN:Shimotto
#486 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 9/2/2013 8:38:55 AM | message detail
Draven rally just fell to #13.
#487 | nintendogirl2 | Posted 9/2/2013 8:39:09 AM | message detail
The board will support Snake and expect Link to win.

Easy.
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#488 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 9/2/2013 8:39:11 AM | message detail
Poor Mega Man X and Ryu in the X-Stats... =(
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#489 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 9/2/2013 8:39:14 AM | message detail
mikisho posted...
Who's making the next topic? This one's reaching the end of the line =P


It's already up.
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#490 | ZeldaTPLink | Posted 9/2/2013 8:39:20 AM | message detail
Julian_Caesar posted...
mikisho posted...
So, at the pace Link is going right now, when does he PASS Draven?


Just in my head, he's on pace in the last half-hour to cut 1000 votes every hour, roughly. So 4pm or so.

If we go by the last 1000 votes cut, it's more like 80 minutes...which puts it at 5:30 pm.


But again...this is Link's peak strength. If he keeps this up until evening I'll honestly be surprised. I think a more realistic time for lead change is going to be 8pm or so...plus Draven will resist when it gets close.


Will he? If the mods lock any new rally in the LoL subreddit, then the reddit rally is fated to die down. Is there any other place where LoL fans can get another rally the same size as this one?
#491 | Heroic Viktor | Posted 9/2/2013 8:39:24 AM | message detail
Cheering this hard for Link just feels right.
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#492 | xp1337 | Posted 9/2/2013 8:39:34 AM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
I wonder when Link wins and the final will be Link-Snake-Samus who will this board support?

Snake.

This is such an amazing unique situation that will probably never be replicated.

I mean, I personally, will be siding with Link. But the board? Definitely Snake.
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#493 | mumbo230 | Posted 9/2/2013 8:39:52 AM | message detail
We are witnessing perhaps the greatest performance in Character Battle history.

All hail to the king. Link is truly god-tier.
#494 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 9/2/2013 8:41:25 AM | message detail | (edited)
Watch Archer.

EDIT: Way early lmao
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#495 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/2/2013 8:41:20 AM | message detail
ZeldaTPLink posted...
Is there any other place where LoL fans can get another rally the same size as this one?


Someone could possibly link to the Draven match on multiple LoL related Facebook pages, though it won't be as effective as a Reddit rally or having Riot officially endorse a rally.
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#496 | mikisho | Posted 9/2/2013 8:41:26 AM | message detail
52 after 184. Link just... doesn't care.
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#497 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/2/2013 8:42:02 AM | message detail
chomping at the bitcoin
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#498 | RPGlord95 | Posted 9/2/2013 8:42:09 AM | message detail
Earthbound sucks
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#499 | Julian_Caesar | Posted 9/2/2013 8:42:18 AM | message detail
TheCodeisBosco posted...
Watch Archer.

EDIT: Way early lmao


:D
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#500 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 9/2/2013 8:42:20 AM | message detail