GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1145
- Team Aqua Elite (37)
- Board List
- Topic List
- Track Topic
- Topic Closed
Crono beats his 2005 percentage on Mario! In a day match! Now, your champion thirsts after his 8th. ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~ http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://www.thengamer.com/ http://thengamer.com/xstats ~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame ~*Character Contest Histories*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the Match Pics*~ http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php ~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~ https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0 ~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense. Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
Mario/Crono still the best, 11 years later. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
I
was gonna go to sleep tonight, but rock band mixed with sev run mixed
with the most epic one on one battle I've personally witnessed live has
said otherwise. Ps. Gamefaqs sucks on an iphone browser. --- Big or small, I don't like Rabbits. They always look like they're about to say something, but they never do. PSN:Shimotto |
What direct % does Link need on Draven to finish above Chie in the x-stats? |
39.42%. He's already way above it. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
lightning-02 posted... What direct % does Link need on Draven to finish above Chie in the x-stats? Chie is at 39.42% on Draven Link currently stands at 43.03% Jak is at 45.06% --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
I
still can't fathom why the vast VAST majority of this board thought
Link would struggle to pull 20%... Like, seriously, it blows my mind. --- Big or small, I don't like Rabbits. They always look like they're about to say something, but they never do. PSN:Shimotto |
mikisho posted... I still can't fathom why the vast VAST majority of this board thought Link would struggle to pull 20%... Like, seriously, it blows my mind. Well this is a weaker Draven. Strong than round 1 Draven but weaker than round 2. His rallies are weird like that. |
While
I understand his round 2 rally was unfathomable (Likely due to a vast
amount of cheating, but we have no proof, so eh.), There's still no
guarantee that if Draven was pulling in 60k visitors to the site again
that all 60k would go with Draven. That's not how rallies work, and most
of this board didn't seem to understand that. --- Big or small, I don't like Rabbits. They always look like they're about to say something, but they never do. PSN:Shimotto |
8 vote gain that time. Link has had 7 updates in a row with more than 100 votes, so I think the morning vote is starting. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
RALLY STATS had some pretty distressing numbers out there after MMX/Ryu! Link under 20% was a bit extreme. But around 25-30%? That sounded pretty good to me! --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
The
Link of previous years would have broken 50% on MMX and Ryu, no
problem. So if this was going to be the strongest Link we ever saw due
to Gamefaqs uniting around him, straight x-stats from the round 2 match,
plus extending the match to 24 hours, already put Link around 40% on
Draven. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
There's our cut! 18 votes. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
Cut! 18 votes, very big for a first cut. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
CUT OMG --- XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism. |
Draven is going to gain like 40 here though. =( --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
Ok,
40% I can understand much more after Round 2. I suppose it's entirely
possible the people who responded to my topic theorizing this were all
the vocal Draven supporters trying to bury Link as much as possible. I do like how Link is like, the ace in the hole for GameFAQs too. For years, he dominates contests, creating a rabid fan base hell bent on destroying him. Then, when an outside force finally interferes to try and topple the king, the site becomes split in it's decision as GameFAQs' heaviest hitter steps up to the plate, ready to take on one of his biggest challenges to date. The stigma surrounding the match is amplified even m ore due to the fact that last time he faced odds like this, he lost. The whole scenario just screams amazing in my head xD --- Big or small, I don't like Rabbits. They always look like they're about to say something, but they never do. PSN:Shimotto |
that is a moral victory, I think --- XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism. |
Link rises from the floor and wants to see out the whole 12 rounds. The champs not going down without a fight |
"only 13" that's better than I expected! --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
Well, not really. Congratulations, Link, for winning an update against Draven. You have scaled the mountain. You are on par with Jak and Chie. --- XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism. |
So
yeah, Link + Shep's percentage of the extra vote pie really really
really gets stupid as these rallied votes are dropping off. It's
getting pretty hard to deny that a good portion of the extra votes are
pure stuffed votes at this point. Link vs Shepard vs Draven Time: Link + Shepard's %, (approximated extra votes) 0:05-0:35: 27.4% (5380 approximated extra votes) 0:35-1:05: 28.1% (3102) 1:05-1:35: 33.1% (3031) 1:35-2:05: 28.5% (2650) 2:05-2:35: 24.3% (2255) 2:35-3:05: 19.7% (1859) 3:05-3:35: 19.3% (1643) 3:35-4:05: 19.3% (1627) 4:05-4:35: 18.3% (1428) 4:35-5:05: 21.5% (1329) 5:05-5:35: 16.1% (1042) 5:35-6:05: 13.4% (977) 6:05-6:35: 6.1% (858) 6:35-7:05: 8.1% (854) 7:05-7:35: 7.0% (775) Ryu vs MMX vs Draven Time: MMX + Ryu's %, (approximated extra votes) 0:35-1:05: 10% (4378 approximated extra votes) 1:05-1:35: 10.3% (4878) 1:35-2:05: 11.9% (4106) 2:05-2:35: 12.4% (3620) 2:35-3:05: 7.9% (2838) 3:05-3:35: 12.3% (3259) 3:35-4:05: 8.4% (2481) 4:05-4:35: 5.8% (2221) 4:35-5:05: 9.8% (2265) 5:05-5:35: 5.1% (2173) 5:35-6:05: 5.2% (2029) 6:05-6:35: 8.2% (2126) 6:35-7:05: 6.4% (1946) 7:05-7:35: 2.4% (1864) Jak vs Chie vs Draven Time: Jak + Chie%, (approximated extra votes) (extra votes before here were trace) 3:05-3:35: 4.4% (411) 3:35-4:05: 1% (770) 4:05-4:35: 9.7% (656) 4:35-5:05: 10.4% (888) 5:05-5:35: 11.9% (906) 5:35-6:05: 12.5% (770) 6:05-6:35: 28.9% (944) 6:35-7:05: 35.7% (843) 7:05-7:35: 29.5% (734) --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
I've got to sleep soon, but here's a Bold Prediction: Draven never gets a lead of 7000 this match. --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
Oh
now it begins. All the Draven supporters begin to downplay Link's
"only" 18 vote cut... But Link is just getting started, and things are
about to get interesting... --- Big or small, I don't like Rabbits. They always look like they're about to say something, but they never do. PSN:Shimotto |
XIII_rocks posted... Well, not really. Pfft, Link is well above Chie. something 240 characters won't be able to say at the end of all this --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
The
Draven rally topic is down to 6th overall on the LoL subreddit. The
rally should get weaker as it falls farther down on the front page of
the LoL subreddit. It will also be pretty hard to get the rally topic
back up to 2nd or 3rd overall, so I could imagine a situation where
another rally topic was posted and upvoted to the point where it ends up
rising to 2nd or 3rd overall. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
red sox 777 posted... I've got to sleep soon, but here's a Bold Prediction: Draven never gets a lead of 7000 this match. I like your style. If Draven never breaks 7000, that creates an even BIGGER opening for Link. I'm containing my excitement as much as I can, but I'm not doing a very good job xD --- Big or small, I don't like Rabbits. They always look like they're about to say something, but they never do. PSN:Shimotto |
Switching back to being serious for a second. I still don't like Link's position here too much. But it's just too much fun to believe and getting all excited. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
I
KNOW RIGHT?! It's going to be one hell of an uphill battle, but if
ANYONE can do it, it's Link.... Or Sora's day vote... BUT ONLY THOSE
TWO! --- Big or small, I don't like Rabbits. They always look like they're about to say something, but they never do. PSN:Shimotto |
Draven by the Hour vs. Link: 1:00 | 53.49% | +859 2:00 | 53.51% | +573 3:00 | 58.48% | +1050 4:00 | 63.51% | +1071 5:00 | 61.72% | +845 6:00 | 61.82% | +735 7:00 | 59.73% | +583 8:00 | 54.44% | +264 A big drop in Draven's percentage. Another drop of the same size would let Link win an hour...... --- Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick your 7 time champion, Link. |
Wow, I knew that was going to be a great hour for Link, but I didn't think it'd be that great. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
Yeah Link has no chance of winning but its nice to see him putting up a fight and not just getting humiliated like MMX and Ryu |
The
funny thing is, Chie was a guaranteed one and done character we would
have probably never seen again had it not been for her bracket
placement. Now, she's going to be a huge running joke and probably get enough noms for the next bracket(s) just so people can make outrageous x-stat claims when she gets hilariously blown out. --- Agent Triple Zero at your service! The artist formerly known as greatone10. |
_SecretSquirrel posted... The funny thing is, Chie was a guaranteed one and done character we would have probably never seen again had it not been for her bracket placement. isn't that the dream of all fodder though --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
There's
still so much negativity. You guys need to look at the opprtunities
here. The Draven Rally is dying AND LINK'S DAY VOTE IS STARTING. There's
potential for us to get an hour or two of Day Vote Link vs. Rally-less
Draven. DO YOU HAVE ANY IDEA HOW BIG THOSE CUTS WILL BE?!? --- Big or small, I don't like Rabbits. They always look like they're about to say something, but they never do. PSN:Shimotto |
I haven't been paying any attention but hahaha Shepard climbing back to 11.8% how is he doing this it's incredible --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
Oh
yeah, The day vote is definitely in it's starting stages.Link's last 3
updates have been 118, 115, and 130. The ball is rolling. --- Big or small, I don't like Rabbits. They always look like they're about to say something, but they never do. PSN:Shimotto |
Shepard is probably catching a lot of votes from the rally too. He's one of the
most well-known current-gen characters - he's going to be catching
rally spillover from the younger League voters, or people who weren't
Nintendo kids. --- XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism. |
At this rate, Draven is gonna drop under 50% and people will be able to blame Shepard again xD --- Big or small, I don't like Rabbits. They always look like they're about to say something, but they never do. PSN:Shimotto |
Can someone make a pre-rally Draven watch? Like,if he drops to being the pathetic Draven he was at the start of the Jak/Chie match,when will Link catch up? |
Nanis23 posted... Can someone make a pre-rally Draven watch? Pre-rally Draven would probably be hard-pressed to hold this lead if we were still having 12 hour matches! --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
Basically the thing to look at here most is Draven's votes per update I think. If Draven starts pulling in like 50s you can actually start believing hard. Link can knock down 100-150 per five if that happens. I'm still not convinced he bottoms out below 100 though! --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
Interesting question. I sadly don't know Pre-rally Draven's points so I couldn't even hazard a guess xD. --- Big or small, I don't like Rabbits. They always look like they're about to say something, but they never do. PSN:Shimotto |
The
chances of unrallied Draven being at the same base strength he had
against Jak/Chie is very unlikely. Draven's base strength is probably
much higher than what he had back in round 1. --- Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~ Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ! |
Lopen posted... Basically the thing to look at here most is Draven's votes per update I think. Yeah, I honestly look at Draven's votal intake before I look at the actual lead. It's way more important, IMO. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
Can someone make a pre-rally Draven watch? Like,if he drops to being the pathetic Draven he was at the start of the Jak/Chie match,when will Link catch up? |
Pre-rally
Draven is pulling like 20-40 votes an update here. Like Link can crush
this lead in two or three hours if that happens. --- No problem! This is a cute and pop genocide of love! |
So, what's the MAX Update Limit for Link once he gets going? Like, believably what are the biggest Updates he could get? --- Big or small, I don't like Rabbits. They always look like they're about to say something, but they never do. PSN:Shimotto |
Link
has notably stepped it up from an hour ago. He's more in the 120-130
per update zone. Draven is just holding out around at 140-150 with those
occasional outliers that go to 120. If he starts doing that with any
frequency again, Link's going to end up cutting every time. --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX |
Lopen posted... Pre-rally Draven is pulling like 20-40 votes an update here. Like Link can crush this lead in two or three hours if that happens. I think we need to calculate it using Link anti votes and bandwagon votes as well I think if the rally gets to the second place or deleted we can still expect 80 votes at least |
- Team Aqua Elite (37)
- Board List
- Topic List
- Track Topic
- Topic Closed
