Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1144

#301 | Lopen | Posted 9/2/2013 12:51:37 AM | message detail | (edited)
Only source I can find (surrenderat20) says that the servers were down from one hour before the poll started last time till 5 hours after the poll started.

Draven didn't really start to slow down at all until 8.5 hours after the poll started so yeah I'm pretty sure that's not really the cause there.

Honestly it's hard to attribute the dropoff Draven had between this round to last to any natural factor. Draven had nearly 2 hours of 600+ vote updates last round. This round he had a grand total of two at the start of the poll. Not to mention Link is also drawing more votes this round than MMX + Ryu were combined, implying that rallied sources are actually drawing more votes than last round, not less. (I think Link = Ryu + MMX is probably about right, contest strength wise)
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#302 | -hotdogturtle-- | Posted 9/2/2013 12:50:55 AM | message detail
From: ExThaNemesis | #300
I mean there are so many great Pokemon in the later gens. How can you not like them.

Too many lines.
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#303 | xp1337 | Posted 9/2/2013 12:51:36 AM | message detail
...Link would do well to never see an update like that again.
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#304 | OnionOfMystery | Posted 9/2/2013 12:53:23 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
...Link would do well to never see an update like that again.


Oh wow. That was pretty bad.
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#305 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 9/2/2013 12:53:28 AM | message detail
Lopen posted...
Only source I can find (surrenderat20) says that the servers were down from one hour before the poll started last time till 5 hours after the poll started.

Draven didn't really start to slow down at all until 8.5 hours after the poll started so yeah I'm pretty sure that's not really the cause there.

Honestly it's hard to attribute the dropoff Draven had between this round to last to any natural factor. Draven had nearly 2 hours of 600+ vote updates last round. This round he had a grand total of two at the start of the poll. Not to mention Link is also drawing more votes this round than MMX + Ryu were combined, implying that rallied sources are actually drawing more votes than last round, not less. (I think Link = Ryu + MMX is probably about right, contest strength wise)


This makes the result unexplainable in a different way though. If we assume this is legit 'Rallied Draven' (which is still monstrously strong, but not 'take on the entire rest of the field at once and win' strong), then the question becomes, where the hell did the stuffed votes in Round 2 go? And if Round 2 was legit, where did Draven's full strength go? Is it just going to come storming back throughout the day instead?
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#306 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 9/2/2013 12:53:38 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
...Link would do well to never see an update like that again.


That was Draven's largest update since 2:46 am and Link's lowest the whole match.
#307 | Jump_Man7 | Posted 9/2/2013 12:56:57 AM | message detail
ExThaNemesis posted...
I can imagine really not liking genwunners.

I mean there are so many great Pokemon in the later gens. How can you not like them.


agreed, and at the same time, hating first gen Pokemon just because a lot of people are nostalgic for them is just as lame
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#308 | Masato_Tanaka | Posted 9/2/2013 1:00:35 AM | message detail
I wonder how far Draven is going to pull away during the night here
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#309 | Lopen | Posted 9/2/2013 1:02:35 AM | message detail
A few possibilities I can think of.

1. Some or all of the vote stuffers aren't bothering because it doesn't seem necessary.
2. Some or all of the vote stuffers aren't bothering because they aren't around/don't care.
3. Bacon actually found stuffed votes and improved the system to better detect, but chose not to share that.

*shrug. 9/12 of his updates of the last hour have been lower than his lowest all match last round so yeah as "outlandish" as these theories may seem they hold more water than "server downtime"
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#310 | CP724 | Posted 9/2/2013 1:02:38 AM | message detail
Man Link in going to get double in these dead hours isnt he?
#311 | xp1337 | Posted 9/2/2013 1:03:12 AM | message detail
Link is still holding out pretty well in the US (still pretty much California wrecking Link) and I haven't been keeping as close an eye on it but I think he's caught up pretty well in the UK.

Everywhere else though!
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#312 | CP724 | Posted 9/2/2013 1:03:21 AM | message detail
*doubled
#313 | xp1337 | Posted 9/2/2013 1:04:29 AM | message detail
Map just updated on me and hurt Link pretty bad in both of those places! Guessing it caught up to that monster update or something!
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#314 | -hotdogturtle-- | Posted 9/2/2013 1:05:58 AM | message detail
From: Jump_Man7 | #307
agreed, and at the same time, hating first gen Pokemon just because a lot of people are nostalgic for them is just as lame

Holding a certain opinion on anything just because of other people's opinions is clearly dumb.

In any case though, if I make a list of all of my top favorite Pokemon, gen 1 is the only generation that doesn't have anything from there.
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#315 | Dabrikishaw15 | Posted 9/2/2013 1:08:38 AM | message detail
Link down to 39%
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#316 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 9/2/2013 1:13:00 AM | message detail
Lopen posted...
A few possibilities I can think of.

1. Some or all of the vote stuffers aren't bothering because it doesn't seem necessary.
2. Some or all of the vote stuffers aren't bothering because they aren't around/don't care.
3. Bacon actually found stuffed votes and improved the system to better detect, but chose not to share that.

*shrug. 9/12 of his updates of the last hour have been lower than his lowest all match last round so yeah as "outlandish" as these theories may seem they hold more water than "server downtime"


I could buy any of those, really. It just makes R2 all the more bizarre.
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#317 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 9/2/2013 1:19:31 AM | message detail
Lopen posted...
A few possibilities I can think of.

1. Some or all of the vote stuffers aren't bothering because it doesn't seem necessary.
2. Some or all of the vote stuffers aren't bothering because they aren't around/don't care.
3. Bacon actually found stuffed votes and improved the system to better detect, but chose not to share that.

*shrug. 9/12 of his updates of the last hour have been lower than his lowest all match last round so yeah as "outlandish" as these theories may seem they hold more water than "server downtime"


I was thinking the exact same thing and am strongly leaning towards number 3. I didn't think of 1, but 2 just doesn't make sense. Why would someone care more last round?
#318 | Lopen | Posted 9/2/2013 1:21:49 AM | message detail
To be honest I'm not entirely convinced Draven isn't still getting stuffed votes. The trends still don't really match what I'd expect out of a rally. The decline has been much less pronounced than I'd expect-- particularly in terms of Draven vs Link + Shepard vote dropoff. I think Link + Shepard vs Draven was about 50-50 early in the poll for extra votes-- now it's not even close. I'm going to run the numbers to see how close that is to the mark but yeah.

It's definitely less braindead obvious this time though.

Random fun fact: At the peak rally update of this round, Shepard only drew 40 less votes than MMX did in the respective update of the last round. That's kinda hilarious.
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#319 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/2/2013 1:26:06 AM | message detail
I just woke up...
Draven isn't that far ahead.Nice.
But the biggest suprise is to see Shepard above 10%.Amazing.
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#320 | xp1337 | Posted 9/2/2013 1:26:19 AM | message detail
Link under 39% now.

This is pretty brutal to watch. =(
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#321 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/2/2013 1:29:09 AM | message detail
Lead over 4000 now.
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#322 | mikisho | Posted 9/2/2013 1:30:11 AM | message detail
It's still the night vote. If Link is holding up this well NOW, his day vote is gonna be killer. That or Draven is just gonna pull away into his 60k vote total.
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#323 | elitewarrior500 | Posted 9/2/2013 1:31:03 AM | message detail
well i dont see the draven on reddit front page anymore so links day vote has a chance
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#324 | -hotdogturtle-- | Posted 9/2/2013 1:31:50 AM | message detail
From: Safer_777 | #319
But the biggest suprise is to see Shepard above 10%.Amazing.

He's been getting a lot of pity votes from people who don't want to support Reddit or a previous contest winner.
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#325 | Janus5000 | Posted 9/2/2013 1:32:04 AM | message detail
my favorite thing about this is how constant Shepard is

Draven is murdering Link and he's just chillin with his 11.4%
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#326 | xp1337 | Posted 9/2/2013 1:42:35 AM | message detail | (edited)
Yeah, in the time Link has fallen almost 3% Shepard dropped like .3%.

shepard holding up like a champ
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#327 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 9/2/2013 1:34:07 AM | message detail
elitewarrior500 posted...
well i dont see the draven on reddit front page anymore so links day vote has a chance

It's dropped from 2 to 3 on the subreddit
Honestly, having it on /r/all would probably be a good thing, since the average person is going to be way more likely to vote for Link or Shep than Draven
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#328 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/2/2013 1:35:03 AM | message detail
In the midst of galactic war, Shepard stands unwavering.
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#329 | Lopen | Posted 9/2/2013 1:36:06 AM | message detail
Quick question for anyone who keeps track of vote totals

What was our highest vote drawing night match that didn't involve Draven and didn't have an obvious rally? I'm thinking it was Yoshi/Solaire/Demi-fiend oddly enough but if anyone can give me a higher scoring one that'd be cool. (I think this match probably has the highest GameFAQs votes of any match so far with the hype it's had so I want to use the highest scoring one to compare)
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#330 | OmegaTomHank | Posted 9/2/2013 1:38:18 AM | message detail
Draven's about to hit 50 on Link..lol...glorious
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#331 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 9/2/2013 1:39:49 AM | message detail
Draven's gains have slowed a bit the past two updates
Hope it's a trend!
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#332 | elitewarrior500 | Posted 9/2/2013 1:40:25 AM | message detail
LordoftheMorons posted...
Draven's gains have slowed a bit the past two updates
Hope it's a trend!


draven slowing down.. then links day vote kicking in
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oh ok
#333 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/2/2013 1:40:44 AM | message detail
#334 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/2/2013 1:41:37 AM | message detail
This night vote is unkind to Link. Come on morning! Then it will be time for the greatest comeback in GameFAQs history!

Glad to see we are already at 38k votes. I have no idea how much we'll end up with, but that looks good.
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#335 | Janus5000 | Posted 9/2/2013 1:43:21 AM | message detail
this talk of a comeback reminds me of Halo/Castlevania

still waiting on that 10000 vote swing btw
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#336 | xp1337 | Posted 9/2/2013 1:44:35 AM | message detail
Janus5000 posted...
this talk of a comeback reminds me of Halo/Castlevania

still waiting on that 10000 vote swing btw

this contest is all about vindicating things we said years ago

samus > mario

10000 votes no problem
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#337 | mikisho | Posted 9/2/2013 1:44:52 AM | message detail
You see, this is what I was talking about for weeks xD. Everyone just assumed Draven was gonna Rally and crush everyone. But there was never, at any point a guarantee that everyone Reddit rallied would vote for Draven.
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#338 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 9/2/2013 1:45:45 AM | message detail | (edited)
Okay, time to jam to some OoT OST while doing these stupid TA ethics modules. Hopefully Draven will be gaining less than 50 votes of lead per update when I get back!
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#339 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 9/2/2013 1:45:48 AM | message detail
Lopen posted...
Quick question for anyone who keeps track of vote totals

What was our highest vote drawing night match that didn't involve Draven and didn't have an obvious rally? I'm thinking it was Yoshi/Solaire/Demi-fiend oddly enough but if anyone can give me a higher scoring one that'd be cool. (I think this match probably has the highest GameFAQs votes of any match so far with the hype it's had so I want to use the highest scoring one to compare)


Yes, that's the highest scoring non-Draven night match.
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#340 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/2/2013 1:46:26 AM | message detail
Lopen posted...
Quick question for anyone who keeps track of vote totals

What was our highest vote drawing night match that didn't involve Draven and didn't have an obvious rally? I'm thinking it was Yoshi/Solaire/Demi-fiend oddly enough but if anyone can give me a higher scoring one that'd be cool. (I think this match probably has the highest GameFAQs votes of any match so far with the hype it's had so I want to use the highest scoring one to compare)


For night matches, it would be Yoshi/Solaire/Demi-Fiend.

For day matches, Raiden/Waluigi/Alan Wake. While there was a rally in that match, it didn't contribute any significant amount of votes to the final vote total. Ezio/Auron/L-Block and Mario/Vivi/Ganon both got more votes than Raiden/Waluigi/Alan Wake, but they both had a pretty significant amount of rallied votes (at least 3000 votes for both matches).
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#341 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 9/2/2013 1:53:04 AM | message detail
So...the poll has 100.01% votes right now. It's just a rounding error somewhere and I'm probably amused because my brain is on fumes from it being so late, but seeing this match break the percentages system is making me laugh for some reason.
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#342 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/2/2013 1:55:30 AM | message detail
This will sometimes happen with polls that have more than 2 options. In some cases, the percentages for all of the options will add up to 99.99% instead of 100.01%.
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#343 | xp1337 | Posted 9/2/2013 1:55:50 AM | message detail
It's not a rounding error.
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#344 | xp1337 | Posted 9/2/2013 2:00:16 AM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
This will sometimes happen with polls that have more than 2 options. In some cases, the percentages for all of the options will add up to 99.99% instead of 100.01%.

Hypothetically, I don't see why it couldn't happen in a 1v1.

Let's say you had 49.995% and 50.005% That would round to a 50-50.01% display.

Unless the 1v1 polls specifically guard against that by only checking one result and just subtracting it from 100 to get the other one to ensure it adds up to 100. Or something like that.
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#345 | raytan7585 | Posted 9/2/2013 2:00:27 AM | message detail
So far Link lost to L-Block & now Draven,
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#346 | xp1337 | Posted 9/2/2013 2:01:07 AM | message detail
raytan7585 posted...
So far Link lost to L-Block & now Draven,

people always forgetting cloud
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#347 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/2/2013 2:05:31 AM | message detail
Vote total comparison so far:

Chief/Dante/L-Block/Snake at 5:01 AM - 39557
Link/Shepard/Draven at 5:01 AM - 39944
Link/Cloud/L-Block/Snake at 5:02 AM - 46171

Only about 400 votes ahead of the 2007 semifinal match right now. Although we're about 6200 votes behind the 2007 final.
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#348 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/2/2013 2:07:12 AM | message detail
Also there was a record of votes in the first 15 minutes?It must have been crazy.
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#349 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 9/2/2013 2:09:02 AM | message detail
Okay seems that 60ish vote gains are the new thing. That's good; I like like those much more than 100 vote gains.
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#350 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/2/2013 2:09:36 AM | message detail
This match did not set a record for most votes in the first 15 minutes.

L-Block/Paddle/WCC/? Block had 3661 votes in the first 5 minutes, 7780 votes after 15 minutes, and 19108 votes after one hour. Those are all records and will probably never be broken again.

Today's match failed to break any of those records set during the 2007 bonus match.
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