Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1144

#51 | Qwaar | Posted 9/1/2013 10:21:29 PM | message detail
OK, that was scary.
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#52 | Scarlettail | Posted 9/1/2013 10:21:38 PM | message detail
I guess everyone's happy now. This has been a mighty effort, at least.
#53 | latiasz | Posted 9/1/2013 10:21:50 PM | message detail
reposting to say that if you post a thread here to get upvotes on the draven thread on /r/league you can get the thread shut down.
#54 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/1/2013 10:22:09 PM | message detail
That was a combination of Link falling AND Draven rising. Link went down below 350 while Draven went back up above 400.

Draven's gaining momentum again, while Link's is stalled. Not a good sign for Link.
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#55 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 9/1/2013 10:22:12 PM | message detail
ugh so much for draven slowing down
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#56 | Xuxon | Posted 9/1/2013 10:22:22 PM | message detail
From: creativename | Posted: 9/2/2013 1:18:47 AM | #035
I'm feeling pretty good about Link here.

An optimistic expectation from Draven's standpoint is that he's up, what - 6K votes by 8am?

Link can definitely turn that around. In fact he can win going away even if he's down that much at 8am.

People are selling Link's day vote so far short it's amazing.

why is Draven's rally going to stop at 8AM though? or ever? if Link can't win during the period with the most "natural gamefaqs" votes (the first hour) i don't see how he can even win updates consistently unless the rally dies off.
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#57 | -hotdogturtle-- | Posted 9/1/2013 10:22:28 PM | message detail
Wow, Link is doing pretty well now.
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#58 | creativename | Posted 9/1/2013 10:22:32 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
It's not a matter of "selling it short."

It's just a matter of we have literally never seen anything remotely comparable to that, so people will need to see it to believe it, most likely.

Well that's what selling it short is, isn't it?

I mean it's quite clear that given the vast differential between their base strengths, Link is capable of a Herculean comeback here. Anyone thinking otherwise is selling Link's day vote short.
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#59 | xp1337 | Posted 9/1/2013 10:23:00 PM | message detail
As for Link's prospects, I remain skeptical. Yeah, his day vote is going to be amazing, but I don't know... does Draven really just run out of steam? I'm doubting it. Even if Day!Link can cut through that I'm not sure he can enough.

Base Draven, sure, but I'm not sure we'll get that far!
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#60 | Ssliasil | Posted 9/1/2013 10:23:10 PM | message detail
Gap Change:- DRAVEN FAVOR

Previous Gap:- 945

New Gap:- 1012

Gap Change:- 67
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#61 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 9/1/2013 10:23:10 PM | message detail
I don't know. I think Draven will probably get up to at least 8000 or 9000 by the time Link gets his morning vote.

And it would be logical to expect an overall higher level of traffic at reddit in the afternoon too, so it's not like Draven's votes are going to die off.
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#62 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 9/1/2013 10:23:21 PM | message detail
Link's day vote is nothing compared to what Draven was doing in round 2. It really can't be understated how much of a monster Draven CAN be, and if he can harness that power again then there's nothing Link can do.
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#63 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/1/2013 10:23:52 PM | message detail
Either that or people just don't expect Draven rallies to die enough for it to matter.
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#64 | Lopen | Posted 9/1/2013 10:24:20 PM | message detail
Interesting.

Draven's getting a lot less votes than last time. I wonder if the vote stuffer laid off or the method was caught or something.

Link could win if this actually goes legitimate.
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#65 | Sorozone | Posted 9/1/2013 10:24:42 PM | message detail
Another rally springing up, is what worries me the most for the rest of this match.

Link could conceivably surmount an 8,000 vote deficit if he stays on the roids here. He just needs to drink some of that Lon Lon Milk to blast through the day.
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#66 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/1/2013 10:25:01 PM | message detail
Hyping up Link's day vote against a f***ing rally beast.

You know, we haven't seen Day Draven yet. He might be even beastlier than we expect.
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#67 | Julian_Caesar | Posted 9/1/2013 10:25:56 PM | message detail
OrangeCrush980 posted...
Link's day vote is nothing compared to what Draven was doing in round 2. It really can't be understated how much of a monster Draven CAN be, and if he can harness that power again then there's nothing Link can do.


Unlikely. The rally was way better organized and planned out this time...and Link is still keeping it close. I doubt we'll see anything like Draven's Round 2 votals. Not that he actually needs it to win, but Link has a much better chance based on what we've seen so far.
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#68 | creativename | Posted 9/1/2013 10:26:40 PM | message detail
Xuxon posted...
why is Draven's rally going to stop at 8AM though? or ever? if Link can't win during the period with the most "natural gamefaqs" votes (the first hour) i don't see how he can even win updates consistently unless the rally dies off.

Because Draven becomes much more likely to fall off as the match continues. Link will only gain strength once the sun hits until basically the end of the match.

The rally won't die off overnight, and like I said people will bail on Link.

But there's a pretty damn good chance Draven can't continue this. Let's say he manages to continue and stalls Link from say 8am-2pm.

Link is still capable of a monster comeback of epic proportions the last 10 hours of the poll. Link's day vote is unreal.

I don't buy this notion that Draven's rally has infinite hit points.
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#69 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/1/2013 10:26:49 PM | message detail
Both went crashing down. Link's now down to 320 votes an update and dropping.

I'm going to bed. It looks like Draven's going to dominate now.
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#70 | xp1337 | Posted 9/1/2013 10:26:54 PM | message detail
Link can you just get that cut? =(
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#71 | Fr0zoN | Posted 9/1/2013 10:27:05 PM | message detail
Only chance Link has is Draven's rally falling off a cliff. We saw last round just how sustained his votes can be. Personally I think his rally will go the full 24 hours.
#72 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 9/1/2013 10:27:17 PM | message detail
Lopen posted...
Interesting.

Draven's getting a lot less votes than last time. I wonder if the vote stuffer laid off or the method was caught or something.

Link could win if this actually goes legitimate.

Part of it is that the LoL servers were apparently down last match.
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#73 | Julian_Caesar | Posted 9/1/2013 10:27:24 PM | message detail
Link still going strong is amazing to me right now. Keeping Draven's gains mostly in the 50-ish range, even after Power Hour is over...really really impressive.
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#74 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/1/2013 10:27:34 PM | message detail
Before I go, wait until the LoL kiddies wake up!
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#75 | gearofages | Posted 9/1/2013 10:27:35 PM | message detail
latiasz posted...
reposting to say that if you post a thread here to get upvotes on the draven thread on /r/league you can get the thread shut down.


What are the specifics of that?
#76 | kurtfisto | Posted 9/1/2013 10:27:57 PM | message detail
Thinking about LINK of all characters having to pull a comeback

this is unreal
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#77 | Surskit | Posted 9/1/2013 10:28:03 PM | message detail
Link and Draven just draining Shepard's percentage now. Poor guy will probably get this treatment for the rest of the match.
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#78 | Xuxon | Posted 9/1/2013 10:28:04 PM | message detail
From: creativename | Posted: 9/2/2013 1:26:40 AM | #068
I don't buy this notion that Draven's rally has infinite hit points.

well then that's all it comes down to. it's not us underestimating Link's day vote.
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#79 | Greyfeld | Posted 9/1/2013 10:28:10 PM | message detail
Lopen posted...
Interesting.

Draven's getting a lot less votes than last time. I wonder if the vote stuffer laid off or the method was caught or something.

Link could win if this actually goes legitimate.


I would imagine a lot of his potential votes are getting sapped by Link. The match votals are about 2k higher than they were at the same time in Draven's R2 match.
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#80 | Lopen | Posted 9/1/2013 10:28:28 PM | message detail
That really doesn't matter that much. People overhype how one track mind players of online games are. Most League players if the servers are down are going to go do something else not go to talk about the game.
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#81 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 9/1/2013 10:29:25 PM | message detail
The vote stuffer has smartened up and is actually stuffing for Link as well, just at a reduced rate. Hell, he's even giving Shepard a crumb or two.
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#82 | creativename | Posted 9/1/2013 10:29:44 PM | message detail
Julian_Caesar posted...
Unlikely. The rally was way better organized and planned out this time...and Link is still keeping it close. I doubt we'll see anything like Draven's Round 2 votals. Not that he actually needs it to win, but Link has a much better chance based on what we've seen so far.

Indeed. We've almost certainly seen Draven at his best already. This was the best organized rally of his, plus it had higher visibility on Reddit than his earlier rally.

Overnight he'll do better just because Link's votes per update will die off like normal while Draven's don't.

xp1337 posted...
Link can you just get that cut? =(

Don't expect many Link cuts until the day time. Overnight will be ugly for him.

He'll get plenty of cuts in the day though.
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#83 | LeonhartFour | Posted 9/1/2013 10:29:57 PM | message detail
#84 | Julian_Caesar | Posted 9/1/2013 10:29:59 PM | message detail
Greyfeld posted...
Lopen posted...
Interesting.

Draven's getting a lot less votes than last time. I wonder if the vote stuffer laid off or the method was caught or something.

Link could win if this actually goes legitimate.


I would imagine a lot of his potential votes are getting sapped by Link. The match votals are about 2k higher than they were at the same time in Draven's R2 match.


Wait, really? That surprises me.


Also, I'm staying up late tonight because I have night shift starting 7:30 pm. Gonna get to see the start and the finish...hopefully the end is as exciting as the start has been so far.
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#85 | backinblack167 | Posted 9/1/2013 10:30:48 PM | message detail
Lopen posted...
That really doesn't matter that much. People overhype how one track mind players of online games are. Most League players if the servers are down are going to go do something else not go to talk about the game.


I would wager that they'd go to check why the game went down as well, so they'd probably check Reddit.
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#86 | Jakyl25 | Posted 9/1/2013 10:31:08 PM | message detail
Lopen posted...
That really doesn't matter that much. People overhype how one track mind players of online games are. Most League players if the servers are down are going to go do something else not go to talk about the game.


I dunno. When there's no wrestling to watch I go online to talk about wrestling.
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#87 | Sorozone | Posted 9/1/2013 10:31:47 PM | message detail
Poor Shepard. Wonder how far he'll end up falling.
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#88 | xp1337 | Posted 9/1/2013 10:31:59 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
xp1337 posted...
Link can you just get that cut? =(

Don't expect many Link cuts until the day time. Overnight will be ugly for him.

He'll get plenty of cuts in the day though.

Oh, I know, but there were a few close calls here! We're too far out of the power hour for me to expect one now, but it would have been the best if it happened about 30 minutes ago.
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#89 | latiasz | Posted 9/1/2013 10:32:16 PM | message detail
gearofages posted...
latiasz posted...
reposting to say that if you post a thread here to get upvotes on the draven thread on /r/league you can get the thread shut down.


What are the specifics of that?

1. post thread asking to upvote league thread on /r/leagueoflegends
2. send thread link to mod
3. they have to shut thread down due to site rules
#90 | Julian_Caesar | Posted 9/1/2013 10:32:19 PM | message detail
Hell, if Link keeps the gains at an average of 40, that's "only" 480-500 votes per hour.
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#91 | kurtfisto | Posted 9/1/2013 10:33:01 PM | message detail
Japan finally going for Link instead of Draven!
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#92 | creativename | Posted 9/1/2013 10:33:27 PM | message detail
Xuxon posted...
From: creativename | Posted: 9/2/2013 1:26:40 AM | #068
I don't buy this notion that Draven's rally has infinite hit points.

well then that's all it comes down to. it's not us underestimating Link's day vote.

That Link is almost at 47% on Draven, during a time when Draven's rally was at it's probable peak, is not a good sign for Draven either way.

Link's %age on Draven will go down before it goes up again, but still, almost 47% is a good sign for Link.

And Draven's rally doesn't have to totally die off for Link to pull a huge comeback. It can go on, just at a reduced rate, and Link will still savagely tear into that lead for the latter half of the match.
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#93 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 9/1/2013 10:33:46 PM | message detail | (edited)
Greyfeld posted...
Lopen posted...
Interesting.

Draven's getting a lot less votes than last time. I wonder if the vote stuffer laid off or the method was caught or something.

Link could win if this actually goes legitimate.


I would imagine a lot of his potential votes are getting sapped by Link. The match votals are about 2k higher than they were at the same time in Draven's R2 match.


At the moment, there's a difference of 1200. But the difference was created entirely within the first 15 minutes.

This match had 5200 votes at the 15 minute mark, compared to 2200 in the last one. Despite that huge head start, it's already starting to fall behind that match.
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#94 | General_Zimbad | Posted 9/1/2013 10:33:51 PM | message detail
For once I really want Link to win.

He's the god damn hero of time!!
#95 | xp1337 | Posted 9/1/2013 10:33:55 PM | message detail
Link only 1% back in the US!
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#96 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 9/1/2013 10:34:16 PM | message detail
That's not going to work, the LoL mods like having that thread there.
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#97 | hylianknight3 | Posted 9/1/2013 10:35:36 PM | message detail
latiasz posted...
gearofages posted...
latiasz posted...
reposting to say that if you post a thread here to get upvotes on the draven thread on /r/league you can get the thread shut down.


What are the specifics of that?

1. post thread asking to upvote league thread on /r/leagueoflegends
2. send thread link to mod
3. they have to shut thread down due to site rules


They'd probably just throw out the number of upvotes estimated to have originated from this site, especially since they know full well how many upvotes the thread had ahead of time.
#98 | Julian_Caesar | Posted 9/1/2013 10:36:11 PM | message detail
LordoftheMorons posted...
That's not going to work, the LoL mods like having that thread there.


Besides that, why haven't people just posted a neutral thread on r/nintendo with a link to the battle? That's within the rules of the board, and it's not like you're going to get MORE people on the nintendo subreddit to vote for link by saying "yeah you should vote for link"
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#99 | creativename | Posted 9/1/2013 10:38:05 PM | message detail
Julian_Caesar posted...
LordoftheMorons posted...
That's not going to work, the LoL mods like having that thread there.


Besides that, why haven't people just posted a neutral thread on r/nintendo with a link to the battle? That's within the rules of the board, and it's not like you're going to get MORE people on the nintendo subreddit to vote for link by saying "yeah you should vote for link"

Yeah, someone can just post a topic like "Draven vs. Shepard vs. Link on gamefaqs poll" asking "So who are you going to vote for?" That seems within the rules.

Doubt it will matter much though. I don't think it would make a real difference.
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#100 | elitewarrior500 | Posted 9/1/2013 10:39:12 PM | message detail | (edited)
i was planning on getting some sleep.. now it seems unlikely as i want to see links percentage go up

also the difference between the 2 is 1100ish so link has plenty of chances
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