Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1144

#451 | xp1337 | Posted 9/2/2013 4:02:33 AM | message detail
I was incredibly excited/hyped in the first hour. Less so now, probably because there's less going on, and I'm entering hour 7 of watching this.

The Power Hour was amazing though.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#452 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/2/2013 4:04:15 AM | message detail
Draven by the Hour vs. Link:

1:00 | 53.49% | +859
2:00 | 53.51% | +573
3:00 | 58.48% | +1050
4:00 | 63.51% | +1071
5:00 | 61.72% | +845
6:00 | 61.82% | +735
7:00 | 59.73% | +583

Draven falls under 60% for a hour.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#453 | mikisho | Posted 9/2/2013 4:04:22 AM | message detail
Understandable xp. You probably should have gone to bed after that xD. It won't really pick up again until the day vote. But once that Day vote starts, ****'s gonna get real. All the Draven supporters are gonna be going "It's just the Link day vote. He's not gonna be able to come back from this." and all the Link supporters are gonna be like "COME ON LINK! YOU GOT THIS! JUST A COUPLE MORE PERCENT! KEEP GOING!" and it's just going to be a glorious enormous cluster **** of excitment!!!
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Big or small, I don't like Rabbits. They always look like they're about to say something, but they never do.
PSN:Shimotto
#454 | Dabrikishaw15 | Posted 9/2/2013 4:04:34 AM | message detail
Draven has about +6000 votes on Link now.
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Fact: Fanbases are unpleasable, deal with it.
#455 | mikisho | Posted 9/2/2013 4:08:40 AM | message detail
So, what would be the minimum average for cuts have to be for Link to come back from this? Because it's shaping up to be one hell of an uphill battle.
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Big or small, I don't like Rabbits. They always look like they're about to say something, but they never do.
PSN:Shimotto
#456 | Polycosm | Posted 9/2/2013 4:08:42 AM | message detail
So, what on earth am I going to do about next match's expert pick?

Sonic is the statistical favorite.
Pokemon has screwed me at every turn this contest.
Will Bowser become a proxy vote for Mario?

I'm not even 100% sure it's safe to stick Bowser in third anymore. This contest is screwing with my head.
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#457 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/2/2013 4:09:20 AM | message detail
I'm not sure that Draven can make it to a lead of 7000 here. He's got 1 more good hour. I expect him to win the 8-9 hour too, but not by much. He might win the 9-10 hour, but again not by much.

Based on L-Block/Link 2007........Draven wins with 50.65%.

Whoa. I had not thought that projection would show Link getting so close.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#458 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/2/2013 4:10:57 AM | message detail
So, what would be the minimum average for cuts have to be for Link to come back from this? Because it's shaping up to be one hell of an uphill battle.

Assuming Draven's lead peaks at 7000 at 9 AM, Link has 15 hours. He needs to average 467 an hour, or 38.9 votes per update, over the rest of the match.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#459 | mikisho | Posted 9/2/2013 4:12:43 AM | message detail
I'm not sure we can compare this to L-Block and Link though. The factors were far different in that match. 4 ways for one, and the other two in the match weren't complete fodder like Mr. Shepard. Just from the fact that this is essentially Link vs. Draven, without a major outside source like Snake or Cloud involved in the mix will give Link a bit of a higher boost than his L-Block X-Stats would show.
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Big or small, I don't like Rabbits. They always look like they're about to say something, but they never do.
PSN:Shimotto
#460 | Averia | Posted 9/2/2013 4:13:47 AM | message detail
Let's not forget there is a rally, should Link get somewhat close to taking the lead, I expect Draven to start going again.
#461 | xp1337 | Posted 9/2/2013 4:14:27 AM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
I'm not sure that Draven can make it to a lead of 7000 here. He's got 1 more good hour. I expect him to win the 8-9 hour too, but not by much. He might win the 9-10 hour, but again not by much.

Based on L-Block/Link 2007........Draven wins with 50.65%.

Whoa. I had not thought that projection would show Link getting so close.

...Whoa.

oh man time to believe.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#462 | mikisho | Posted 9/2/2013 4:14:49 AM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
So, what would be the minimum average for cuts have to be for Link to come back from this? Because it's shaping up to be one hell of an uphill battle.

Assuming Draven's lead peaks at 7000 at 9 AM, Link has 15 hours. He needs to average 467 an hour, or 38.9 votes per update, over the rest of the match.


Wow that stat just got me so pumped for some reason xD It's just such a doable number. I feel like this is gonna be one of those matches that goes down in contest history, that I'll end up reading about at a later date on the wiki.
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Big or small, I don't like Rabbits. They always look like they're about to say something, but they never do.
PSN:Shimotto
#463 | mikisho | Posted 9/2/2013 4:16:28 AM | message detail
Holy crap only a 20 vote difference. That rally wild card is a scary thing, but with updates like that, I'm liking Link's chances.
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Big or small, I don't like Rabbits. They always look like they're about to say something, but they never do.
PSN:Shimotto
#464 | xp1337 | Posted 9/2/2013 4:16:56 AM | message detail
Single digit gain!

Draven's vote totals are totally in a range where Link could spike for a cut!
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#465 | Janus5000 | Posted 9/2/2013 4:17:07 AM | message detail
Only a 9 vote gain.

This seems early.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
#466 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/2/2013 4:18:44 AM | message detail
9 vote gain for Draven. This is almost all Draven falling off; the last 2 updates have been his worst of the match. This is not yet the day vote starting, as Link and Shepard's vote intake haven't really increased at all yet.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#467 | xp1337 | Posted 9/2/2013 4:19:37 AM | message detail
Yeah, this is absolutely on Draven's end. Which is really encouraging if it can stay down there. Not too optimistic on that front though.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#468 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 9/2/2013 4:19:59 AM | message detail
Could we see a cut before I go to bed? Only one way to find out!
...which is staying up stupidly late, I suppose
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I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword
#469 | mikisho | Posted 9/2/2013 4:20:06 AM | message detail
Janus5000 posted...
Only a 9 vote gain.

This seems early.


Well, if this is a legit rally and there's no stuffing involved, it's 100% possible for the rally to die at any moment. Not exactly plausible at this point of the day, but it's possible. If Draven's rally dies, so does Draven. Even without the day vote, we all know Link turns Rally-less Draven into a snivelling little girl.
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Big or small, I don't like Rabbits. They always look like they're about to say something, but they never do.
PSN:Shimotto
#470 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 9/2/2013 4:21:39 AM | message detail | (edited)
Draven rally has fallen to 5th on the subreddit! If it falls to 8th or so, you have to scroll to see it!
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I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword
#471 | mikisho | Posted 9/2/2013 4:21:58 AM | message detail
Don't say things like that man xD I'm already pumped up on Sugar, adrenaline, and cookies. I can't take anymore!!!
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Big or small, I don't like Rabbits. They always look like they're about to say something, but they never do.
PSN:Shimotto
#472 | xp1337 | Posted 9/2/2013 4:26:25 AM | message detail
Draven's votals going back to a place where Link can't reach at the moment.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#473 | mikisho | Posted 9/2/2013 4:27:03 AM | message detail
ooh, back up to 50 vote gain. Link just needs a few more big stalls like that 9!!!
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Big or small, I don't like Rabbits. They always look like they're about to say something, but they never do.
PSN:Shimotto
#474 | red sox 777 | Posted 9/2/2013 4:28:38 AM | message detail
Zelda's absolute votes by the hour yesterday:

1:00 | 2166
2:00 | 1368
3:00 | 980
4:00 | 778
5:00 | 635
6:00 | 532
7:00 | 531
8:00 | 581
9:00 | 769
10:00 | 899
11:00 | 965
12:00 | 1262

The final hour was probably inflated a bit due to it being a close match, but probably would have been over 1000 regardless. So, Link can look forward to doubling his vote intake by noon or thereabouts.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#475 | The_Djoker | Posted 9/2/2013 4:29:20 AM | message detail
Once Dravens rallies weakens or stop entirely, Link will Stomp Hard . Won't be enough though.
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#476 | xp1337 | Posted 9/2/2013 4:29:37 AM | message detail
Zelda picking up exactly at 9 AM was such a great "like clockwork" moment.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#477 | mikisho | Posted 9/2/2013 4:31:02 AM | message detail
So, since Draven just COMPLETELY ruined the X-Stats last round, would Link beating him here technically make Link out to be an unstoppable god of a character in the X-Stats?
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Big or small, I don't like Rabbits. They always look like they're about to say something, but they never do.
PSN:Shimotto
#478 | Averia | Posted 9/2/2013 4:32:43 AM | message detail
mikisho posted...
So, since Draven just COMPLETELY ruined the X-Stats last round, would Link beating him here technically make Link out to be an unstoppable god of a character in the X-Stats?


I'm pretty sure he will make Chie and Jak the strongest characters.
(also MMX and Ryu are fodders)
#479 | xp1337 | Posted 9/2/2013 4:32:53 AM | message detail
Lead over 6000. Just keep slowing it down, Link!

As for Link and the X-Stats. Link winning here probably could damage control them pretty well actually. MMX and Ryu would still be a mess though. Kind of hard to imagine Link being so overpowered against say, Snake, which would probably help normalize things.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#480 | Lopen | Posted 9/2/2013 4:35:58 AM | message detail | (edited)
Wow 117 update from Draven maybe I was incorrect about not thinking he'd ever fall below 100.
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#481 | xp1337 | Posted 9/2/2013 4:36:25 AM | message detail
Lopen posted...
Wow 117 update from Draven maybe I was incorrect about not thinking he'd ever fall below 100.

If Link got the update he just got against that we'd have had a cut!
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#482 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 9/2/2013 4:38:46 AM | message detail
Averia posted...
mikisho posted...
So, since Draven just COMPLETELY ruined the X-Stats last round, would Link beating him here technically make Link out to be an unstoppable god of a character in the X-Stats?


I'm pretty sure he will make Chie and Jak the strongest characters.
(also MMX and Ryu are fodders)


The x-stats are screwed no matter what happens. I'm still looking forward to what kind of damage that contest legend Adam Jensen could do.
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#483 | kurtfisto | Posted 9/2/2013 4:41:15 AM | message detail
oho Shepard with the percentage gains
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They don't always think it be like it is, but it do.
~KF~
#484 | mikisho | Posted 9/2/2013 4:42:26 AM | message detail
So... Am I finally allowed to say I was right in my prediction that the Draven Rally would benefit Link far more than anyone thought it would?
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Big or small, I don't like Rabbits. They always look like they're about to say something, but they never do.
PSN:Shimotto
#485 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/2/2013 4:44:38 AM | message detail
Rally topic fell to 5th place
Not like it matters too much,it needa to be 10th or something to not show up without scrolling down
#486 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 9/2/2013 4:45:48 AM | message detail
Well I guess I'm not going to make it to a cut; I think the approach of 5am means I should go to sleep. I hope I wake up to a much smaller gap!
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I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword
#487 | xp1337 | Posted 9/2/2013 4:46:26 AM | message detail
8 votes.

come on link you're so close
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#488 | LordoftheMorons | Posted 9/2/2013 4:47:16 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Rally topic fell to 5th place
Not like it matters too much,it needa to be 10th or something to not show up without scrolling down

6th, actually! And there's some sort of sticky at the top, so at least on chrome on my computer the rally is at the bottom of my unscrolled screen.
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I don't know how much you know about women, but Dr. Pizza is an expert. - The Mana Sword
#489 | mikisho | Posted 9/2/2013 4:48:06 AM | message detail
HOLY 8 GAIN BATMAN! Link is so close to making a cut here. A cut before the actual day vote begins would be huge, and I would probably start squealing like a little girl.
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Big or small, I don't like Rabbits. They always look like they're about to say something, but they never do.
PSN:Shimotto
#490 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/2/2013 4:48:42 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Rally topic fell to 5th place
Not like it matters too much,it needa to be 10th or something to not show up without scrolling down


Aaaand six place
Is it now dropping fast or what
#491 | SnoicFactor | Posted 9/2/2013 4:49:40 AM | message detail
Link getting close to a cut.
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nt
#492 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/2/2013 4:49:51 AM | message detail
Judging by the vote totals, it seems like we might just barely break 100000 votes on this match. This rally doesn't seem to be getting as many votes as Draven's round 2 match. The round 2 match brought in about an extra 57000 votes from outside GameFAQs. If we got that same amount of votes from this rally, it would give this match over 110000 votes assuming this match normally gets about 55000 votes from our normal site visitors.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#493 | xp1337 | Posted 9/2/2013 4:51:14 AM | message detail
LINK

HE COME TO TOWN

18 VOTE CUT
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#494 | SnoicFactor | Posted 9/2/2013 4:51:28 AM | message detail
cut finally
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nt
#495 | SliceSabre | Posted 9/2/2013 4:51:55 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
LINK

HE COME TO TOWN

18 VOTE CUT

Please guys this is getting pathetic now.
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@w@
Gamertag: SliceSabre
#496 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/2/2013 4:52:20 AM | message detail
lmao

Just as I wake back up, Link finally gets his first cut.

Ahaha.
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Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64
#497 | xp1337 | Posted 9/2/2013 4:52:37 AM | message detail
Link's down 6000, and you're telling me I can't have some fun with an 18 vote cut?

no fun faqs strikes again
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#498 | kurtfisto | Posted 9/2/2013 4:52:37 AM | message detail
oh god a cut
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They don't always think it be like it is, but it do.
~KF~
#499 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 9/2/2013 4:53:03 AM | message detail
If only Link could channel his status of being the contest's John Cena...
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Agent Triple Zero at your service!
The artist formerly known as greatone10.
#500 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/2/2013 4:53:36 AM | message detail
OMG A CUT JUST 336 MORE CUTS LIKE THIS
THERE ARE ONLY 192 MORE UPDATES BUT YESSASA


Welp