Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1142

#201 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 9/1/2013 3:25:23 PM | message detail
Well, unless you think MMX has massive overlap with Mario (which I really doubt), it seems pretty clear that Crono would be in the mid 40s against Mario 1v1 over 24 hours. Now what that means for both isn't really clear, but it's obvious Crono is still strong and the Noble Nine, together with the upper near-elites, are all close together. Pity it'll be a long while before we see fair 1v1s again!
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#202 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 9/1/2013 3:27:51 PM | message detail
I'm starting to think that Old Square boosting is just nonsense after all...
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#203 | superange128 | Posted 9/1/2013 3:30:21 PM | message detail
Fayt_Esteed posted...
I'm starting to think that Old Square boosting is just nonsense after all...


I still think it's just Dissidia
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#204 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/1/2013 3:30:24 PM | message detail
Everybody has weakened considerably, and these lower votals have really pushed together the gaps between the elites and everyone else.
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#205 | The_Djoker | Posted 9/1/2013 3:31:41 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
CT has boosted in the past. That used to be a big 'thing' pre-2006.


It had DS releases. And go releases in Europe for the first time. But that was ages ago
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#206 | KamikazePotato | Posted 9/1/2013 3:34:04 PM | message detail
Everyone on the field has weakened except for FF9, Pokemon, and Metal Gear. Vivi is actually going to win the contest.
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#207 | pjbasis | Posted 9/1/2013 3:34:05 PM | message detail
End of Round 2 stats

Zero - 2.83¢
Rikku - 2.00¢
Cube - 1.96¢
? Block - 1.81¢
Claptrap - 1.63¢
Lenneth - 1.54¢
Lyndis - 1.01¢
Kratos - 1.00(09)¢
Boko - 1.00¢

Charizard - 7.02¢
Zelda - 7.01¢
Riku - 3.58¢
Marston - 3.09¢
DK - 2.89¢
Lightning - 2.43¢
Sackboy - 1.28¢
Nier - 1.26¢
Falco - 1.00¢
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#208 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/1/2013 3:34:22 PM | message detail
Even with massive 70/30 overlap (something I don't buy at all), that'd put Mario at about 57.5% right now and falling. Assuming as a conservative estimate for Crono that Mario'd end at 55% in a 24 hour match and Crono 2013 = Squall 2010, Mario loses to Samus 2010 in a 53-47 affair.
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#209 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/1/2013 3:35:25 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Even with massive 70/30 overlap (something I don't buy at all), that'd put Mario at about 57.5% right now and falling. Assuming as a conservative estimate for Crono that Mario'd end at 55% in a 24 hour match and Crono 2013 = Squall 2010, Mario loses to Samus 2010 in a 53-47 affair.


yeah, who says Samus hasn't also fallen since 2010 :P
#210 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/1/2013 3:37:52 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Even with massive 70/30 overlap (something I don't buy at all), that'd put Mario at about 57.5% right now and falling. Assuming as a conservative estimate for Crono that Mario'd end at 55% in a 24 hour match and Crono 2013 = Squall 2010, Mario loses to Samus 2010 in a 53-47 affair.


yeah, who says Samus hasn't also fallen since 2010 :P


Not an impossibility! My only point is that you can make extremely charitable assumptions for Mario in this match and it's still quite difficult to make him look good. Or rather, he can't look good without Crono looking good. The rankings of the NN where Mario is our #2 and Crono is simultaneously our #9 are nearly impossible to reconcile. You'd have to effectively draw the statistical equivalent of an inside straight to get that to work.
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#211 | The_Djoker | Posted 9/1/2013 3:38:34 PM | message detail
Kotetsu534 posted...
Well, unless you think MMX has massive overlap with Mario (which I really doubt), it seems pretty clear that Crono would be in the mid 40s against Mario 1v1 over 24 hours. Now what that means for both isn't really clear, but it's obvious Crono is still strong and the Noble Nine, together with the upper near-elites, are all close together. Pity it'll be a long while before we see fair 1v1s again!


Or Mario is just weaker. I'm sorry but an iconic guy like him should never lose to Vivi rally or not. He's pathetic now. Well done he's getting 55% on a guy who lives off a game released over 17 years ago.
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#212 | XIII_rocks | Posted 9/1/2013 3:39:58 PM | message detail
So...so 8 years later...we're finally in a position where we're all pretty convinced that Samus > Mario indirectly?
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#213 | Achromatic | Posted 9/1/2013 3:40:22 PM | message detail
The_Djoker posted...
Kotetsu534 posted...
Well, unless you think MMX has massive overlap with Mario (which I really doubt), it seems pretty clear that Crono would be in the mid 40s against Mario 1v1 over 24 hours. Now what that means for both isn't really clear, but it's obvious Crono is still strong and the Noble Nine, together with the upper near-elites, are all close together. Pity it'll be a long while before we see fair 1v1s again!


Or Mario is just weaker. I'm sorry but an iconic guy like him should never lose to Vivi rally or not. He's pathetic now. Well done he's getting 55% on a guy who lives off a game released over 17 years ago.


Rally + Ganondorf dragging him down <_<.
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#214 | The_Djoker | Posted 9/1/2013 3:42:27 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Even with massive 70/30 overlap (something I don't buy at all), that'd put Mario at about 57.5% right now and falling. Assuming as a conservative estimate for Crono that Mario'd end at 55% in a 24 hour match and Crono 2013 = Squall 2010, Mario loses to Samus 2010 in a 53-47 affair.


yeah, who says Samus hasn't also fallen since 2010 :P


She probably has, but you know what Samus has that Mario doesn't? Badass factor. The factor you need to stay relevant if you don't have any games. Mario unfortunately gets 1 billion games per year to keep himself relevant. That's why she can indirectly put up better performances than Mario or close to him.
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#215 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 9/1/2013 3:45:39 PM | message detail
The_Djoker posted...
1337gamerpr0 posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Even with massive 70/30 overlap (something I don't buy at all), that'd put Mario at about 57.5% right now and falling. Assuming as a conservative estimate for Crono that Mario'd end at 55% in a 24 hour match and Crono 2013 = Squall 2010, Mario loses to Samus 2010 in a 53-47 affair.


yeah, who says Samus hasn't also fallen since 2010 :P


She probably has, but you know what Samus has that Mario doesn't? Badass factor. The factor you need to stay relevant if you don't have any games. Mario unfortunately gets 1 billion games per year to keep himself relevant. That's why she can indirectly put up better performances than Mario or close to him.


Yet a good deal of other badass characters have stunk it up this contest...
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#216 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/1/2013 3:45:39 PM | message detail
but what about badass decline theory
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#217 | ZFS | Posted 9/1/2013 3:46:56 PM | message detail
XIII_rocks posted...
So...so 8 years later...we're finally in a position where we're all pretty convinced that Samus > Mario indirectly?


This isn't some static thing that never changes, or was retroactively the right thing. I dunno why a result that happened nearly a decade ago still holds sway today. Samus can be stronger than Mario, if this is the current site preference. We're not in the Nintendo years anymore. I've kind of accepted that Mario isn't the number two, or in contention for it, at least as far as this contest and multiways go. Samus probably does have a better claim at it. Doesn't mean she did in 2005.
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#218 | The_Djoker | Posted 9/1/2013 3:47:00 PM | message detail
Achromatic posted...
The_Djoker posted...
Kotetsu534 posted...
Well, unless you think MMX has massive overlap with Mario (which I really doubt), it seems pretty clear that Crono would be in the mid 40s against Mario 1v1 over 24 hours. Now what that means for both isn't really clear, but it's obvious Crono is still strong and the Noble Nine, together with the upper near-elites, are all close together. Pity it'll be a long while before we see fair 1v1s again!


Or Mario is just weaker. I'm sorry but an iconic guy like him should never lose to Vivi rally or not. He's pathetic now. Well done he's getting 55% on a guy who lives off a game released over 17 years ago.


Rally + Ganondorf dragging him down <_<.


Actually what it is is that a decent % the ff9 AND nintendo fans sided with vivi more. You put Samus in that match instead..she probably wins.
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#219 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/1/2013 3:48:01 PM | message detail
There's only one thing that will settle this

Samus/Mario II: The SFF Strikes Back
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#220 | The_Djoker | Posted 9/1/2013 3:48:56 PM | message detail
Fayt_Esteed posted...
The_Djoker posted...
1337gamerpr0 posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Even with massive 70/30 overlap (something I don't buy at all), that'd put Mario at about 57.5% right now and falling. Assuming as a conservative estimate for Crono that Mario'd end at 55% in a 24 hour match and Crono 2013 = Squall 2010, Mario loses to Samus 2010 in a 53-47 affair.


yeah, who says Samus hasn't also fallen since 2010 :P


She probably has, but you know what Samus has that Mario doesn't? Badass factor. The factor you need to stay relevant if you don't have any games. Mario unfortunately gets 1 billion games per year to keep himself relevant. That's why she can indirectly put up better performances than Mario or close to him.


Yet a good deal of other badass characters have stunk it up this contest...


Being badass alone isn't going to get you votes. You need the games and the memorable factor too. If Cloud was Fat and a plumbre in FFVII. FFVII's stength would still be the same. Clouds wouldn't. Same with Crono.
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#221 | The_Djoker | Posted 9/1/2013 3:50:34 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
There's only one thing that will settle this

Samus/Mario II: The SFF Strikes Back


Unfortunately, the Nintendo fanbase sides with Mario. That's why their matches are loopsided. If had that poll and no Nintendo fans were allowed to vote. Samus wins.
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#222 | ZFS | Posted 9/1/2013 3:50:43 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
There's only one thing that will settle this

Samus/Mario II: The SFF Strikes Back


The stats topics it would take discussing this!
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#223 | ZFS | Posted 9/1/2013 3:52:38 PM | message detail
Also, Samus/Snake would be a good one, too. I feel like most would agree Snake wins, but if Samus can crush her way through the Block and Snake beats the Pokemon! Second place becomes first place finals redeemed.
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#224 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/1/2013 3:52:53 PM | message detail
If Mario wins the better character wins the day and rSFF is potentially validated once and for all
If Samus wins Ulti kills himself

set it up bacon
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#225 | XIII_rocks | Posted 9/1/2013 3:59:42 PM | message detail
ZFS posted...
XIII_rocks posted...
So...so 8 years later...we're finally in a position where we're all pretty convinced that Samus > Mario indirectly?


This isn't some static thing that never changes, or was retroactively the right thing. I dunno why a result that happened nearly a decade ago still holds sway today. Samus can be stronger than Mario, if this is the current site preference. We're not in the Nintendo years anymore. I've kind of accepted that Mario isn't the number two, or in contention for it, at least as far as this contest and multiways go. Samus probably does have a better claim at it. Doesn't mean she did in 2005.


Oh yeah I'm not saying it was necessarily right then, just that it's funny we've come back to this.

And I still take Mario one-on-one. <_<
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#226 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 9/1/2013 4:01:07 PM | message detail
At this rate, we'll have a ton of questions and no answers by the time this contest is over...
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#227 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/1/2013 4:02:03 PM | message detail
Fayt_Esteed posted...
At this rate, we'll have a ton of questions and no answers by the time this contest is over...


CBX: 1v1, no LoL characters
only way we'll get anything
#228 | XIII_rocks | Posted 9/1/2013 4:02:21 PM | message detail
Isn't that a good thing? Every contest poses new questions.
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#229 | ZFS | Posted 9/1/2013 4:02:51 PM | message detail
Threeways wouldn't be bad with a better bracket.
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#230 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/1/2013 4:04:44 PM | message detail
ZFS posted...
Threeways wouldn't be bad with a better bracket.


in other words, if someone other than SBAllen ran it
.....huh, it keeps coming back to that in the end!
#231 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/1/2013 4:05:25 PM | message detail
I'm not sure what matches threeways really enhance. Unless it was kept to an R1 thing that turns into 1v1 later on it just seems like it ruins more matches than it gives us.

Or it gives us crap like Vivi > Mario! And who doesn't like that result?
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#232 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 9/1/2013 4:05:45 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
Not_Wylvane posted...

Even if he's telling the truth, the mods should lie and say he marked someone.


TRE, say yes even if the answer is no


If Link wins tomorrow, he's innocent.
If Draven wins tomorrow, he's totally guilty.

>_>
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#233 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/1/2013 4:12:12 PM | message detail
Can't argue with that logic!
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#234 | XIII_rocks | Posted 9/1/2013 4:15:58 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
I'm not sure what matches threeways really enhance. Unless it was kept to an R1 thing that turns into 1v1 later on it just seems like it ruins more matches than it gives us.

Or it gives us crap like Vivi > Mario! And who doesn't like that result?


I love that result!
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#235 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/1/2013 4:17:09 PM | message detail
Team Rocket Elite posted...
If Link wins tomorrow, he's innocent.
If Draven wins tomorrow, he's totally guilty.

>_>


TRE=best mod confirmed
#236 | raginbull911 | Posted 9/1/2013 4:19:51 PM | message detail
Check your inbox, XIII.

Go Mario!
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#237 | ZFS | Posted 9/1/2013 4:53:49 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
I'm not sure what matches threeways really enhance. Unless it was kept to an R1 thing that turns into 1v1 later on it just seems like it ruins more matches than it gives us.

Or it gives us crap like Vivi > Mario! And who doesn't like that result?


Well I'm convinced 1v1s it is
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#238 | GloryChaos | Posted 9/1/2013 4:57:17 PM | message detail
I thought for sure Crono would be winning. I voted for X, and before I did, I assumed that X would have SFF'd Mario to the point where Crono would easily win.
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#239 | SilverSwift | Posted 9/1/2013 5:10:21 PM | message detail
Same here. I voted MMX, shame he's not doing so well.
#240 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 9/1/2013 5:16:14 PM | message detail
Hope you didn't base the assumption that Crono would win because of LFF on the Vivi match!
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#241 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/1/2013 5:19:24 PM | message detail
Crono's very possibly winning by a decent bit in a Mario/Crono/Ganondorf setup. He's got close to 47% right now. MMX just doesn't have as close a connection.
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#242 | XIII_rocks | Posted 9/1/2013 5:21:56 PM | message detail
If we had wanted that CLASSIC CRONO/MARIO 50-50 CLASH, is there anyone else we could put in the poll to weaken Mario enough? Everyone I could think of would just tip the scales too far in Crono's favour.

Would original Megaman do it?
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#243 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 9/1/2013 5:23:16 PM | message detail
Maybe the only way Crono > Mario is Link/Crono/Mario
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#244 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 9/1/2013 5:23:30 PM | message detail
#245 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/1/2013 5:27:38 PM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
Vivi


nah, Vivi just wins that 3-way outright
#246 | ZFS | Posted 9/1/2013 5:32:54 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Crono's very possibly winning by a decent bit in a Mario/Crono/Ganondorf setup. He's got close to 47% right now. MMX just doesn't have as close a connection.


Seems possible. LFF is enough to make up plenty of gaps.
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#247 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/1/2013 5:38:59 PM | message detail
And Link/Snake/Samus is still a technically alive final!

dravennnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn
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#248 | xp1337 | Posted 9/1/2013 5:40:35 PM | message detail
Glad to see Crono doing better now than when I left.

Not sure what this means for him 1v1 24 hours, but it's probably about in line with where I was thinking, if not perhaps slightly better than that.

(This is late, but the Mario/Crono 1v1 discussion went something like: I made a comment suggesting Mario would 60-40 Crono, was immediately met with "whoa hold up there." red sox said 53-47 IIRC and HM and I both said it'd be worse than Mario/Crono 2005 and I went further and said at least 55%)
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#249 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 9/1/2013 5:46:15 PM | message detail
XIII_rocks posted...
If we had wanted that CLASSIC CRONO/MARIO 50-50 CLASH, is there anyone else we could put in the poll to weaken Mario enough? Everyone I could think of would just tip the scales too far in Crono's favour.

Would original Megaman do it?


Put a LoL character in. Drive the votals up the roof and see if both Mario and Crono benefit from the spillover votes. Alternatively, try Pikachu and see if Mario can SFF hard enough to avoid jobbing.
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#250 | creativename | Posted 9/1/2013 6:04:11 PM | message detail
OK guys, for anyone who actually *cares* about Draven not winning I hope you can take a couple minutes to make a Reddit account!

If we can downvote any rallies early, we have a chance to kill them before they take over.

Another idea someone mentioned was making extra topics so that the Draven rally topics don't appear in the "New" section, again lowering their visibility. Just pretend to ask some dumb question about LoL or a random champion if you (like me) know nothing about the game.

Luster has said he'll try to do this with multiple accounts, but it would *very* little effort for anyone else to pitch in. So if you've been whining about Draven, take a few minutes to help and actually try do something about it.

The chances are not good that this will work but they are most definitely non-zero. There is a huge random element as to which topics work on Reddit, and early downvotes can drastically affect visibility.
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