GameFAQs Contests

If there's enough overlap to cause SFF in the first place, a 70/30 split is not unrealistic at all.
---
A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.

FranzyvonKarma posted...

Reminder that in 2008 Samus barely broke 55% on Vincent in a match somewhat similar to this except with another Square character in the poll, and barely broke 53% on him in the match prior, with Ganon and Gordon involved.

Samus/Ganon obviously overlap more than Mario/MMX. That's not even a discussion. The 70/30 split is more appropriate for her match.
---
http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif
Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)

Then00bAvenger posted...

If there's enough overlap to cause SFF in the first place, a 70/30 split is not unrealistic at all.

The evidence we have does not bear this out. Entities much more closely related than Mario/MMX have only pulled off 70/30s in the past. Given X's disproportionate resistance to Link SFF compared to Sonic or Luigi that makes it even more unlikely.
---
http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif
Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)

I figured Crono would be stronger this year than before, but I don't believe there was anything suggesting it. Maybe that Frog match, but who knows what was going on there. The stats this contest seemed totally off, so I'm not sure where anyone actually is right now, and I think it's kinda hard to gauge with so many of these LFF scenarios and the wild nature of the contest. Doesn't seem like things follow from one match to the next. I think that makes it hard to really pull out stats that are much more than a rough feeling.
---
tune in tokyo 142.94

Karma Hunter posted...

ZFS posted...

red sox's percentages were like 52/48., which I don't believe at all.

I believe 53/47 was his 'traditional' belief for Mario/Crono. It doesn't work with the 70/30 MMX split that I find unrealistic, but with the 60/40 that I pegged pre-match and accounting for 24 hours that's within the range of possibilities, which would have floored me pre-contest.

Well, to be fair here, I think everyone's expectations pre-contest have been pretty smashed up!
---
tune in tokyo 142.94

The Frog match does suggest a stronger Crono. I can't really explain it otherwise. If Cloud bombs against Squirtle, though, it won't look good anymore.
---
http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif
Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)

So are the stats people enjoying this match? 5 hours in and it's going how I thought it would. Crono just so weak compared to his prime.
---
http://myanimelist.net/animelist/swordz9

Karma Hunter posted...

The Frog match does suggest a stronger Crono. I can't really explain it otherwise. If Cloud bombs against Squirtle, though, it won't look good anymore.

Yeah, I mean it does make sense, considering how a few other Old Square guys have done, so it would follow that CT would benefit, and I thought Frog did great, but then how much of that is just Cloud? Squirtle is probably a decent match to get an idea. Vivi is still something that doesn't make much sense, though.
---
tune in tokyo 142.94

I mean, if we're taking every match at face value, then Auron vs. pre-HGSS Charizard is a gimme.

For pre-HGSS Charizard. Which means unless you think 2013 Charizard is significantly weaker than the one that 53/47'd Kratos Zelda over Auron is a lock.

Basically I don't think there's anything of value to project onto 1v1s to get from these matches except 'wow Lightning sucks' and 'I am totally going to take Mega Man > Cloud next time and be really sad when it doesn't happen'.

Also why am I on this alt I am not at work.
---
~War~

The ad hominem thing made its way into this topic?

As the one who was having the original argument with XIII whenever he resorted to going ad hominem, all I'll say is taking the ad hominem approach weakens your argument by making you look weak since you're resorting to attacking the person instead of the facts, and it essentially has the opposite effect that XIII thinks it has. In my scenario (and really the scenario of most logical debaters), having someone resort to ad hominem makes you not want to waste time with them by continuing the argument, since they're proving themselves to be intellectually inferior and anti-logic since they don't know how to deconstruct an argument and form a proper rebuttal. If that makes the attacker think that gives them a "win" on the argument scoreboard, just let them have their delusional feeling of pride.

Just some life advice, if you're ever in a business meeting or academic environment and say "your argument is wrong because you're stupid, and therefore that makes your argument stupid," you'll get laughed out of the room, and probably not get that promotion or get accepted into that Ph.D program.

I won't be saying anything more on this -- if you want to argue ad hominem boosts your argument, you're just flat out wrong.
---
I pwn you all!

An FF9 boost seems real at this point. Zidane and Vivi performed like champs in all of their matches.
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.

I'm not taking every match at face value. The jury is still out on both Mario and Crono in my book. Crono has reasons to look good (Frog), but also ones to look bad (Pikachu). Mario has reasons to look good (likely can't be weaker than Samus without rSFF) and reasons to look bad (Charizard, Vivi, Crono). These are rough impressions I'm getting - the numbers I'm putting up are more food for thought.
---
http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif
Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)

LinkMarioSamus posted...

People like Ulti were saying that Crono might lose to Luigi, Yoshi, or Bowser pre-contest. Considering how old Square characters have generally done well this contest it would make sense for Crono to be at least partially restored to his old strength, probably around 2005/6 level, and he only lost to Pikachu because of POKEFEAR.

In which case you have to explain Missingno bombing and Charizard doing everything to disappoint short of actually losing. Easy: joke character decline, and Zelda boost.

More like everyone overrated Charizard because they ignored the part where he got 55% on Kratos before beating Bowser on the release day of HG/SS and then a crazy bandwagon performance on Mario (which doesn't look that great in retrospect, considering how Mario's been doing so far!).

Also, I find it hilarious that Mario's getting around the same percentage against Crono and X as he did against Vivi and Ganondorf. It'll probably fall quite a bit by the end, but at least I can laugh at it right now.
---
Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy II - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3557012
Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64

Also, old Square doesn't seem that impressive anymore, what with Knuckes sucking making Celes look worse, plus Alucard sucking making Rydia look worse, and Wrex sucking making Cecil look worse. Locke wasn't impressive to begin with, and Boko struggled against a f***ing Tales character.

The only characters that really looked great were Frog, Kefka, and Gilgamesh. Of course, Kefka's probably had much better reason to boost from Dissidia thanks to getting some actually good art from the game and also being one of the best characters in that game (at least from what I've played so far).
---
Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy II - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3557012
Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64

I think that Zelda vs Bowser is highely debateable
I know that lol xstats but Bowser has higher ranking than Zelda only in 2005(somehow getting 49% on Snake) and 2010 (because of Charizard)
So I would say Charizard strength is weaker than what it was against Mario,but not that much weaker than what he had against Bowser
Defiently not "54 on Kratos" or "failing to double Duke Nukem" but somewhere in between,more toward to "Charizard vs Bowser" level

Pokemon got a giant boost from HGSS and BW,it might fade out a little over time but it doesn't disappear like that

Gilg has Dissidia as well
---
Want any VNs pre-patched? PM me. List of VNs can be found by clicking on my username.

Terra's going to look hilariously good if Kirby beats Sephiroth!
---
[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]

Zelda should beat Bowser. Bowser's not *that* good. Same for Yoshi, even easier. Luigi is the troublesome one.
---
http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif
Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)

So if you consider Zelda>Bowser (by about 52-48 I believe?) and let's say that DK leeched Zelda at about 60-40, I don't think it means that Charizard fallen(fell? damn english) so much
Unless im really bad at calculating this (also ignoring pic factor,it's still debateable if it really hurt Zelda)

AxemRedRanger posted...

Terra's going to look hilariously good if Kirby beats Sephiroth!

believe

i am so, so excited for the unadjusted x-stats at the end. they will be a masterpiece.
---
Leafs / Raptors / Blue Jays / TFC / Argos / Tottenham
We'll get 'em next year.

Well, not compared to Bowser, sure. Compared to Mario, he's fallen like a rock. That performance was more than half the Noble Nine was expected to score on Mario.

Of course, if you think Mario wasn't that good to begin with, then everything lines up.
---
http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif
Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)

Year of Luigi/Big Boss is worse than we expected.

There, Luigi's performance justified.
---
Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy II - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3557012
Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64

Nanis23 posted...

I think that Zelda vs Bowser is highely debateable
I know that lol xstats but Bowser has higher ranking than Zelda only in 2005(somehow getting 49% on Snake) and 2010 (because of Charizard)
So I would say Charizard strength is weaker than what it was against Mario,but not that much weaker than what he had against Bowser
Defiently not "54 on Kratos" or "failing to double Duke Nukem" but somewhere in between,more toward to "Charizard vs Bowser" level

Pokemon got a giant boost from HGSS and BW,it might fade out a little over time but it doesn't disappear like that

And yet, everyone who Charizard faced in 2010 tanked - Duke Nukem got his face bashed in, as did Kratos, who also bombed by failing to double Recette. Mario lost to Vivi, and even Bowser hasn't looked so hot. Going from holding Mario under 54% to nearly losing to a Zelda that was probably SFFed means that Charizard can't possibly have retained much of his post-HGSS strength.
---
"Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia

Going to sleep,not sure if I want to wake up in this world tomorrow
I wish I would wake up to a world where Link is dominating X and Shepard,making everyone cry about LAW,and then starting to make jokes about how low Draven is going to finish in the xstats
And then people start arguing about his xstats being far too high because he is Link division,and it should be much lower after he only beat Chester by 100 votes in the bonus round...while Kanz trying to defend him by saying a bonus match shouldn't count

Crono now on his way toward 47%, his 2005 mark well behind him.

He could have conceivably won this setup if it were a night match. Would *anyone* have taken that upset?
---
http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif
Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)

On a serious note,while I really enjoyed the drama in the Draven match and how much people freaked here was hilarious,can we please be calm about this match? I mean yeah sure Draven getting 5000 votes in just 30 minutes is kind of woah...but it makes us look like idiots and they make fun of us so maybe we should be a little more..calm
Well it helps Black Turtle is not here but still!

Nanis23 posted...

Going to sleep,not sure if I want to wake up in this world tomorrow
I wish I would wake up to a world where Link is dominating X and Shepard,making everyone cry about LAW,and then starting to make jokes about how low Draven is going to finish in the xstats
And then people start arguing about his xstats being far too high because he is Link division,and it should be much lower after he only beat Chester by 100 votes in the bonus round...while Kanz trying to defend him by saying a bonus match shouldn't count

if only
lol at Draven vs Chester, this should be a bonus poll at the end of the contest

Nanis23 posted...

On a serious note,while I really enjoyed the drama in the Draven match and how much people freaked here was hilarious,can we please be calm about this match? I mean yeah sure Draven getting 5000 votes in just 30 minutes is kind of woah...but it makes us look like idiots and they make fun of us so maybe we should be a little more..calm
Well it helps Black Turtle is not here but still!

Nice try. The board's going to be a complete s***-storm of tears regardless of whether Link or Draven is winning.

Really, the only way the board would be bearable is if somehow Shepard pulls off a miracle win here. BELIEVE.
---
Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy II - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3557012
Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64

Finally, a logical rebuttal to the point that isn't just "no you're wrong". It's a shame you're abandoning it. I'll send you a PM, don't expect a reply but better than clogging this topic further
---
XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism.

Bracing for Link was stuffing at a 3:1 ratio or something.
---
http://myanimelist.net/animelist/swordz9

UltimaterializerX posted...

I think the saddest thing of all is that Kanz's skin is so thin that he has to mark everything. The dude is just maplejet with a vocabulary at this point.

MOD CALLOUT CHALLENGE: I have not marked a single post in this entire season. Period (I am not saying 'ever' only because my memory isn't good enough to go as far back as the time I created my account, and I might have marked a racist or whatever). If TRE or any other mods are up to investigating my history, if such a thing is possible, I will close my account and leave the board if a single instance of marking is found since the start of the season. Don't try and drag me to your level, Ultimaterializer. Just because you're a pathetic, cowardly sort doesn't mean the rest of us are as sorry as you.
---
http://i.imgur.com/PL5UKJj.png
Bearer of the Mark of Kan.

Fayt_Esteed posted...

Nanis23 posted...

I think that Zelda vs Bowser is highely debateable
I know that lol xstats but Bowser has higher ranking than Zelda only in 2005(somehow getting 49% on Snake) and 2010 (because of Charizard)
So I would say Charizard strength is weaker than what it was against Mario,but not that much weaker than what he had against Bowser
Defiently not "54 on Kratos" or "failing to double Duke Nukem" but somewhere in between,more toward to "Charizard vs Bowser" level

Pokemon got a giant boost from HGSS and BW,it might fade out a little over time but it doesn't disappear like that

And yet, everyone who Charizard faced in 2010 tanked - Duke Nukem got his face bashed in, as did Kratos, who also bombed by failing to double Recette. Mario lost to Vivi, and even Bowser hasn't looked so hot. Going from holding Mario under 54% to nearly losing to a Zelda that was probably SFFed means that Charizard can't possibly have retained much of his post-HGSS strength.

The dumb thing is that all those characters other than Charizard himself have reason to be weaker:

-Duke is coming off of Forever being a total flop.
-Kratos was at his popularity peak in 2010 (at least in terms of game releases - his most highly-regarded game AND a PSP side game?), now he has largely faded.
-Mario is starting to get flak for his games being too rehash-y, and Nintendo has hit an all-time low recently.
---
Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC

Not_Wylvane posted...

Nanis23 posted...

On a serious note,while I really enjoyed the drama in the Draven match and how much people freaked here was hilarious,can we please be calm about this match? I mean yeah sure Draven getting 5000 votes in just 30 minutes is kind of woah...but it makes us look like idiots and they make fun of us so maybe we should be a little more..calm
Well it helps Black Turtle is not here but still!

Nice try. The board's going to be a complete s***-storm of tears regardless of whether Link or Draven is winning.

Really, the only way the board would be bearable is if somehow Shepard pulls off a miracle win here. BELIEVE.

Link winning here actually deserves a ****storm because he is the underdog now
Draven winning and pulling in more votes than he did against X and Ryu is the most possible outcome
Personally if I wake up to a result of something like 70% Draven and 20% Link my post is just going to be "oh"

Nanis23 posted...

Going to sleep,not sure if I want to wake up in this world tomorrow
I wish I would wake up to a world where Link is dominating X and Shepard,making everyone cry about LAW,and then starting to make jokes about how low Draven is going to finish in the xstats
And then people start arguing about his xstats being far too high because he is Link division,and it should be much lower after he only beat Chester by 100 votes in the bonus round...while Kanz trying to defend him by saying a bonus match shouldn't count

Nanis, you vastly overestimate my level of investment into Draven. He's not Mario or Squall. I'm just really happy to see him winning, but I'm not gonna crown this contest best ever if he becomes champion or anything!
---
http://i.imgur.com/PL5UKJj.png
Bearer of the Mark of Kan.

KanzarisKelshen posted...

UltimaterializerX posted...

I think the saddest thing of all is that Kanz's skin is so thin that he has to mark everything. The dude is just maplejet with a vocabulary at this point.

MOD CALLOUT CHALLENGE: I have not marked a single post in this entire season. Period (I am not saying 'ever' only because my memory isn't good enough to go as far back as the time I created my account, and I might have marked a racist or whatever). If TRE or any other mods are up to investigating my history, if such a thing is possible, I will close my account and leave the board if a single instance of marking is found since the start of the season. Don't try and drag me to your level, Ultimaterializer. Just because you're a pathetic, cowardly sort doesn't mean the rest of us are as sorry as you.

Even if he's telling the truth, the mods should lie and say he marked someone.
---
Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy II - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3557012
Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64

KanzarisKelshen posted...

Nanis23 posted...

Going to sleep,not sure if I want to wake up in this world tomorrow
I wish I would wake up to a world where Link is dominating X and Shepard,making everyone cry about LAW,and then starting to make jokes about how low Draven is going to finish in the xstats
And then people start arguing about his xstats being far too high because he is Link division,and it should be much lower after he only beat Chester by 100 votes in the bonus round...while Kanz trying to defend him by saying a bonus match shouldn't count

Nanis, you vastly overestimate my level of investment into Draven. He's not Mario or Squall. I'm just really happy to see him winning, but I'm not gonna crown this contest best ever if he becomes champion or anything!

I remember your posts during his comeback on Jak and Chie
Of course,it might be like your AA4 playthrough by making it looks like you enjoyed it more than you really did!

Not_Wylvane posted...

Even if he's telling the truth, the mods should lie and say he marked someone.

TRE, say yes even if the answer is no

Nanis23 posted...

KanzarisKelshen posted...

Nanis23 posted...

Going to sleep,not sure if I want to wake up in this world tomorrow
I wish I would wake up to a world where Link is dominating X and Shepard,making everyone cry about LAW,and then starting to make jokes about how low Draven is going to finish in the xstats
And then people start arguing about his xstats being far too high because he is Link division,and it should be much lower after he only beat Chester by 100 votes in the bonus round...while Kanz trying to defend him by saying a bonus match shouldn't count

Nanis, you vastly overestimate my level of investment into Draven. He's not Mario or Squall. I'm just really happy to see him winning, but I'm not gonna crown this contest best ever if he becomes champion or anything!

I remember your posts during his comeback on Jak and Chie
Of course,it might be like your AA4 playthrough by making it looks like you enjoyed it more than you really did!

Nnnnnno, not exactly. I'd say it's closer to my reactions to play, I dunno, 2-3 before the Stupid Moment or 3-1 throughout. I actually DID enjoy Draven winning a bunch, it's just that it was not even close to my level of marking out for Squall when he clutched it out. I mean, did you see it? I was in full hype mode there.
---
http://i.imgur.com/PL5UKJj.png
Bearer of the Mark of Kan.

1337gamerpr0 posted...

Not_Wylvane posted...

Even if he's telling the truth, the mods should lie and say he marked someone.

TRE, say yes even if the answer is no

Please. If you want me off the board I'll take real bets. I'm fool enough to put things on the line if there's an equal shot at winning or losing, at least in theory. Surely you'll be willing to risk a little to gain a lot, right?
---
http://i.imgur.com/PL5UKJj.png
Bearer of the Mark of Kan.

I'll bet your account you're wrong.
---
Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy II - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3557012
Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64

Oh also bracing for the match to hit 100k+ votes and then Sonic/Mewtwo/Bowser failing to break 50k.
---
http://myanimelist.net/animelist/swordz9

Official mod comment: No comment
---
*shrug*

Not_Wylvane posted...

I'll bet your account you're wrong.

That's already been offered up! Just humiliating Ulti by proving that he's a cowardly liar who didn't have the balls to come out and say he was the one who marked my topic back when I got suspended is enough reward for me.

EDIT: If marking histories can't be checked though, I'll have to find a different way to clear things up. Just clarifying that because I don't know how the mod tech works.
---
http://i.imgur.com/PL5UKJj.png
Bearer of the Mark of Kan.

I'll interpret that as a "yes," then.
---
Current Let's Play: Final Fantasy II - http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3557012
Previous: http://lparchive.org/author/mega64

A normal 24 hour match should break 50k, but the point still stands
---
BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 116/159 Today's Picks: Zelda

swordz9 posted...

Oh also bracing for the match to hit 100k+ votes and then Sonic/Mewtwo/Bowser failing to break 50k.

personally, I'm rooting for some division finals to fail to hit 45k, maybe even sub-40k

Sent a PM reply to raginbull, didn't want to clog this place up any further with that stuff.
---
XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism.

Mario is dominating now...
---
GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~

Karma Hunter posted...

The Frog match does suggest a stronger Crono. I can't really explain it otherwise. If Cloud bombs against Squirtle, though, it won't look good anymore.

People still think Frog doesn't get Joke votes?

Seriously. a lot of people haven't played CT. IF you're a casual COD player and you see that poll and you have no interest in those characters(lets face it Lugia isn't a recognisable pokemon) you're gonna vote for the guy named Frog. Just becaue he did well doesn't mean CT boosted. That isn't even logical. how the hell does CT boost without any new releases at all? If CT boosed something got worse. Probably FFVII.
---
http://s19.postimage.org/aosug5mrn/Persona4.png

CT has boosted in the past. That used to be a big 'thing' pre-2006.
---
http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif
Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)