Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1142

#101 | tgs2 | Posted 9/1/2013 12:23:59 PM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
The_Djoker posted...
Seriously, Dravens Reddit Rally makes L block look like Tanner. IF Reddit rallies. He will crush everything in it's path. L block got joke votes by a bunch of people on this site and other sites. draven is literally getting 100k+ votes(in a 24 hour match) from vastly more active site. And draven ins't actually a joke character, he's well known character in the most popular game of the last 4-5 years.


You don't **** with 4chan
Sure you can laugh at /vp/,you can even giggle at /v/,but when they combine with the power of /b/ it can get dangerous
If they care enough,that's it...and L-Block might be the only thing that can make them care enough


4chan means nothing. They TRIED to rally their lovechild Hitler in the Rivalry rumble and couldn't do anything
#102 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/1/2013 12:29:16 PM | message detail
Yeah 4chan can influence matches like, say, Neku/Catherine. Draven is many orders of magnitude more powerful than that. No comparison.
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#103 | XIII_rocks | Posted 9/1/2013 12:29:37 PM | message detail
and KoolAid if you have a response please let's take it to PM. I'm not interested in someone like KH who's just going to ridicule good points and never provide a good response and I'm not interested in clogging the topic any further with this
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XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism.
#104 | UltimaterializerX (Topic Creator) | Posted 9/1/2013 12:30:57 PM | message detail
I think the saddest thing of all is that Kanz's skin is so thin that he has to mark everything. The dude is just maplejet with a vocabulary at this point.
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http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Main_Page, Rest in peace Kazbar :(
#105 | UItimaterializer | Posted 9/1/2013 12:35:45 PM | message detail
It's not even his vocabulary, either, he just quotes stupid s*** in some attempt to look deep when pretty much this entire board thinks he's a joke at this point.

Most of you are at least lucky enough to have never played mafia with the dude. Always fun to watch someone idle out, then pretend they were the only one in a game doing anything right. Banning that guy was one of the best things Chris and I (or maybe it was just Chris, I don't remember) ever did. He has basically been ostracized from all of Board 8's subcultures at this point.
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Get the X out.
Vinateri was using his god powers on the Pats and then was like "Wait I'm a Colt now lol" and now you have it.
#106 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 9/1/2013 12:36:05 PM | message detail
I'll just say I'm not responding at all right now, because I'm really not interested in continuing this line of discussion with you.
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Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (is also Yoblazer)
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#107 | XIII_rocks | Posted 9/1/2013 12:38:40 PM | message detail
That's fine. Still not 100% sure you completely got the idea but you probably did.
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XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism.
#108 | The_Djoker | Posted 9/1/2013 12:47:11 PM | message detail | (edited)
Nanis23 posted...
The_Djoker posted...
Seriously, Dravens Reddit Rally makes L block look like Tanner. IF Reddit rallies. He will crush everything in it's path. L block got joke votes by a bunch of people on this site and other sites. draven is literally getting 100k+ votes(in a 24 hour match) from vastly more active site. And draven ins't actually a joke character, he's well known character in the most popular game of the last 4-5 years.


You don't **** with 4chan
Sure you can laugh at /vp/,you can even giggle at /v/,but when they combine with the power of /b/ it can get dangerous
If they care enough,that's it...and L-Block might be the only thing that can make them care enough


You act like 4chan is Lblock fanboy site or something. IT's not. It's just a bunch of random users who also have similar interest to ours and also interest in other stuff. They don't give a crap about Lblock winning they just jump on a bandwagon and vote. And it effects results that are close. L block winning in 07 was 90% gamefaqs users saying "lolthesecontests". After that they stopped caring about him.

Draven has a enourmous pool of users voting for him from 1 site that has a massive LoL userbase.

Two aren't even the same thing.
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#109 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/1/2013 12:45:41 PM | message detail
So from what I can understand that means that X isn't that strong?
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#110 | The_Djoker | Posted 9/1/2013 12:47:47 PM | message detail
He was never that strong. But more so because of Mario. Mario makes Megaman look mid carder. Same with Samus.
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#111 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 9/1/2013 12:50:01 PM | message detail
I suppose we can all agree that if Red and/or Charizard can't capitalize on their positions, they're easy candidates for turd of the contest.
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#112 | XIII_socks | Posted 9/1/2013 12:51:35 PM | message detail
man this topic is boring now
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#113 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 9/1/2013 12:51:38 PM | message detail
Charizard was 17 votes away from taking Turd of the Round as it is
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#114 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/1/2013 12:58:18 PM | message detail
What was the maximum lead for Zelda?
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#115 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/1/2013 12:59:42 PM | message detail
If Kanz really reported with XIII said then it's sad..really
Who cares about internet insults
I was called a "poor orphan" and "freak of nature" in another board and that post is still alive and kicking
#116 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/1/2013 1:01:51 PM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
What was the maximum lead for Zelda?


284
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/node/22?matchnum=5251&num=3
#117 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 9/1/2013 1:13:28 PM | message detail
TheKoolAidShoto posted...
Charizard was 17 votes away from taking Turd of the Round as it is


Indeed. Even with the fact Charizard was overrated thanks to his 2010 run... what the hell happened? And this debacle was after Pokémon was mostly looking good, too...
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"Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
#118 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/1/2013 1:15:03 PM | message detail
Zelda people,is from legend of zelda.You know the series that dominates here?And the one that is above all other series in Nintendo hierarchy?
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#119 | Lopen | Posted 9/1/2013 1:15:50 PM | message detail
Yikes this topic is pretty awful to read today

*backs out slowly*
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#120 | ZFS | Posted 9/1/2013 1:17:23 PM | message detail
MARIO contest redeemed
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#121 | ZFS | Posted 9/1/2013 1:18:04 PM | message detail
But Zelda losing by a few votes augh
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#122 | lightning-02 | Posted 9/1/2013 1:18:59 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Yeah 4chan can influence matches like, say, Neku/Catherine. Draven is many orders of magnitude more powerful than that. No comparison.


Any 4chan influence in the contest so far was mostly from /v/, I know people tried with /vp/ (pokemon) and /jp/ (touhou) but they didn't seem interested. if something did prompt /b/ to get involved it would be a lot more significant. The daily traffic to /b/ is I believe greater than the LoL subreddit.
And the catherine push was small, a better example of what /v/ has done is the thousands of votes pushed for Vivi and L-Block. Even at the death of the last match /v/ was outrallying Zelda for Charizard on r/pokemon, it just started too late.
#123 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 9/1/2013 1:19:26 PM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
Zelda people,is from legend of zelda.You know the series that dominates here?And the one that is above all other series in Nintendo hierarchy?


Zelda or no, someone who's being hyped to upset Mega Man just does NOT look awful like this. No way, not at all, nuh uh.
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"Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
#124 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 9/1/2013 1:21:27 PM | message detail
It's not the people who change their votes in a bonus poll.

It's the ones that don't vote in a bonus poll.
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#125 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 9/1/2013 1:22:06 PM | message detail
In hindsight, Mario may actually have deboosted a bit, if he's allowing Crono - who is on Pikachu's level - to get this close to him. Makes sense if you consider the usual rule of Mario's performance depending on how well Nintendo is doing, and Nintendo has pretty much hit an all-time low recently. So:

-Zelda characters boost because of Majora's Mask and Wind Waker getting more well-liked.
-Samus boosts because of the possibility of an SNES boost, female character boost (come on you know it's true), and/or Metroid Prime nostalgia, all of which completely counters any possible deboost from Other M.
-Mario deboosts because his recent games are largely looked down upon, and he doesn't have a well-liked GameCube game to benefit from nostalgia like Link and Samus do. Poor guy.
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#126 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 9/1/2013 1:23:33 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
LeonhartFour posted...
Jak projected to double Mario

Tripled by Yoshi, doubles Mario

Seems legit


Yoshi to hextuple Mario?
these stats are accurate, BELIEVE


That's not the way X-stats work!
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#127 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 9/1/2013 1:24:14 PM | message detail
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
It's not the people who change their votes in a bonus poll.

It's the ones that don't vote in a bonus poll.


Except the match is on pace to be right up there with the more popular day polls?

Minus the ones with extreme rallying like Mario/Vivi and L-Block/Auron of course
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#128 | ZFS | Posted 9/1/2013 1:24:20 PM | message detail
LMS what none of that makes sense
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#129 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 9/1/2013 1:25:31 PM | message detail
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
That's not the way X-stats work!


X-stats look flawed as is, with your setting the winner to 50% and everything
either way the point is, Yoshi killing Mario? those stats are legit
#130 | Lopen | Posted 9/1/2013 1:26:12 PM | message detail
Dude just wanted an excuse to bring up Other M
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#131 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 9/1/2013 1:28:12 PM | message detail
Fayt_Esteed posted...
Safer_777 posted...
Zelda people,is from legend of zelda.You know the series that dominates here?And the one that is above all other series in Nintendo hierarchy?


Zelda or no, someone who's being hyped to upset Mega Man just does NOT look awful like this. No way, not at all, nuh uh.


I agree. Until this contest, Zelda had never come close to pulling off a major upset, while Charizard did that twice in his first contest. Despite her close loss at the hands of 11th-hour rallying, I'd still say this is easily her best contest, with 2008 ranking a distant second for her. She may have been in half as many matches as in 2010, but she looked really good in both of them, while in 2010 she looked bad in every single one of her matches.

Similarly, Link did very well in round 2 (jury's out on round 1), though I think there's a possibility that Raiden may be a fraud (the problem is that it makes sense for him to boost due to getting a well-received new game recently, however Raiden's second round match this contest is literally the only match this entire contest which supports Raiden boosting from Rising, otherwise you have Raiden struggling to 55-45 Waluigi and Senator Armstrong looking like horrible fodder). Still, if both Link and Zelda did well in round 2 while Ganondorf did well enough to cost Mario a win, a trend's a trend. I'd say the Zelda characters are having a much better contest this time than they did in 2010, and the only explanation I can think of is Majora's Mask and Wind Waker going from black sheep status to being considered to be among the best in the series.
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#132 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 9/1/2013 1:29:09 PM | message detail
Also Mario's percent against Megaman X has now just about conveniently fallen into place to be about what he would be expected to get if he was able to SFF him the same amount Link did and was at his usual elite level. That sort of consistency probably isn't a bad thing!
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#133 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 9/1/2013 1:29:50 PM | message detail
Lopen posted...
Dude just wanted an excuse to bring up Other M


WTF no. I was just thinking that Samus might have actually gone up in strength since last contest, so I wanted to mention that it countered an Other M deboost.

Also why does everyone think I want to mention that game often?
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Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC
#134 | ZFS | Posted 9/1/2013 1:32:18 PM | message detail
Because you do! And Samus doesn't have any reason to boost. If anything, she has reason to drop, but more than likely is just about the same. I would expect Samus to be better equipped to not take such a big hit in Nintendo down years, but at the same time, Other M being the last Metroid game isn't great. Also, Zelda characters certainly don't look 'boosted.' link's probably the worst he's been in a long time. Cloud and Sephiroth are just much worse.
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#135 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 9/1/2013 1:33:44 PM | message detail
So is Vivi just godlike or what

what's your take on this ZFS
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#136 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/1/2013 1:35:39 PM | message detail
Then00bAvenger posted...
Also Mario's percent against Megaman X has now just about conveniently fallen into place to be about what he would be expected to get if he was able to SFF him the same amount Link did and was at his usual elite level. That sort of consistency probably isn't a bad thing!


It's a false indicator, though. Even giving X the full benefit of being a 'pure' Nintendo character and giving Mario a ridiculous 70% of his percentage, Mario is still getting less than 58% on Crono. In a day match.

If you think Crono has returned to his 2005 elite self it's not bad, but otherwise it's looking to be significantly sub-Samus level on Mario's part.
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#137 | ZFS | Posted 9/1/2013 1:38:50 PM | message detail
I'm okay believing Vivi is a Noble Nine breaker if everyone else is
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#138 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/1/2013 1:38:59 PM | message detail
Also you can't really write this match off as a bonus fluke or anything because the Vivi match exists
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#139 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 9/1/2013 1:39:48 PM | message detail
ZFS posted...
Because you do! And Samus doesn't have any reason to boost. If anything, she has reason to drop, but more than likely is just about the same. I would expect Samus to be better equipped to not take such a big hit in Nintendo down years, but at the same time, Other M being the last Metroid game isn't great. Also, Zelda characters certainly don't look 'boosted.' link's probably the worst he's been in a long time. Cloud and Sephiroth are just much worse.


I think I've just been impressed with Link's and Samus's round 2 performances, and both of Zelda's matches, so that's why I'm trying to fish out reasons for them.

For some reason I feel like I'm behind my earlier obsession with Other M, or at least my view on it has changed. Out of actually going back and replaying it of course.

That said, I feel like mentioning that I hear the game mentioned alarmingly often when people on the Internet discuss topics like "games I like that everyone hates" or "underrated games". It's starting to become almost as cliche as Ocarina of Time being the best game ever.
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#140 | Jump_Man7 | Posted 9/1/2013 1:40:31 PM | message detail
XIII_rocks posted...
What I like about Zard's slim margin of victory is that I know for damn sure I must have made a difference.

Now granted every other rallier for Charizard can probably say the same thing, but I'm pretty extremely sure that I rallied at least 15 votes.

So even though the poll was kind of terrifying for a second there, it might be one of my top 10 contest matches because I influenced the outcome.


I have this same feeling and it makes me feel like a douche
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#141 | Safer_777 | Posted 9/1/2013 1:41:26 PM | message detail
So Zelda characters are even stronger now?Man let us hope that Draven wins.
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#142 | ZFS | Posted 9/1/2013 1:42:17 PM | message detail
Weren't people here saying Mario getting 60% against Crono was way too much, even before the Vivi match? I don't doubt Mario has declined a bit, probably enough where Samus would be stronger indirectly, but how good were people expecting here? I think Mario probably manages 55% 1v1. That's not great, but I mean, I don't think we're dealing with wide strength gaps here as a whole anymore, except at the very top.
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#143 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 9/1/2013 1:43:30 PM | message detail
We don't know for sure. Zelda herself however has unequivocally performed better this contest than she did in 2010.

If it's because of Majora's Mask and Wind Waker (the two actual best games in the series IMO) gaining in popularity, it's awesome.
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#144 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/1/2013 1:44:13 PM | message detail
I never bought that crazy red sox argumentin'. The fact that he was possibly RIGHT about Mario/Crono's percentages is the biggest surprise of this entire contest to me!
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#145 | tgs2 | Posted 9/1/2013 1:45:03 PM | message detail
We need to run more Mario/high midcarder/Ganon-Zelda matches just to see how many people Mario will just flat out lose to. Vivi was already even with Mario before the rallies happened.
#146 | ZFS | Posted 9/1/2013 1:45:07 PM | message detail
red sox's percentages were like 52/48., which I don't believe at all.
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#147 | ZFS | Posted 9/1/2013 1:45:33 PM | message detail
tgs2 posted...
We need to run more Mario/high midcarder/Ganon-Zelda matches just to see how many people Mario will just flat out lose to. Vivi was already even with Mario before the rallies happened.


Huh? The rallies happened at the very start of the match.
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#148 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 9/1/2013 1:46:02 PM | message detail
ZFS posted...
Weren't people here saying Mario getting 60% against Crono was way too much, even before the Vivi match? I don't doubt Mario has declined a bit, probably enough where Samus would be stronger indirectly, but how good were people expecting here? I think Mario probably manages 55% 1v1. That's not great, but I mean, I don't think we're dealing with wide strength gaps here as a whole anymore, except at the very top.


People like Ulti were saying that Crono might lose to Luigi, Yoshi, or Bowser pre-contest. Considering how old Square characters have generally done well this contest it would make sense for Crono to be at least partially restored to his old strength, probably around 2005/6 level, and he only lost to Pikachu because of POKEFEAR.

In which case you have to explain Missingno bombing and Charizard doing everything to disappoint short of actually losing. Easy: joke character decline, and Zelda boost.
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#149 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 9/1/2013 1:47:05 PM | message detail
Reminder that in 2008 Samus barely broke 55% on Vincent in a match somewhat similar to this except with another Square character in the poll, and barely broke 53% on him in the match prior, with Ganon and Gordon involved.
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#150 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/1/2013 1:47:09 PM | message detail
ZFS posted...
red sox's percentages were like 52/48., which I don't believe at all.


I believe 53/47 was his 'traditional' belief for Mario/Crono. It doesn't work with the 70/30 MMX split that I find unrealistic, but with the 60/40 that I pegged pre-match and accounting for 24 hours that's within the range of possibilities, which would have floored me pre-contest.
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