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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1142
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| So is Vivi a monster then? Jesus. ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~ http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://www.thengamer.com/ http://thengamer.com/xstats ~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame ~*Character Contest Histories*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the Match Pics*~ http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php ~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~ https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0 ~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense. Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated. --- "GameFAQs isn't going to be merged in with GameSpot or any other site. We're not going to strip out the soul of the site." -CJayC | 
| Still right over here buddy. --- XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism. | 
| Vivi strongest FF character confirmed | 
| UltimaterializerX posted... Wait, Charizard WON!?! Yeah, by just 15 votes. That was pretty dang cool. | 
| do it corno --- Leafs / Raptors / Blue Jays / TFC / Argos / Tottenham We'll get 'em next year. | 
| X is hurting Mario. I'm not sure people understand how MUCH he'd have to be hurting him for this not to be a bad performance. X doesn't have the same overlap as real Nintendo characters or even entities like Sonic. Just look at Link/X compared to Link/Sonic or Link/Luigi. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) | 
| As
 an addendum to my last post, I'll grant that Crono isn't as "pure 
Square" as someone like Vivi, so he probably isn't taking advantage of 
this situation as well. --- Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif | 
| I
 love how even in this bonus match, X gets screwed by getting put behind
 Mario or Link yet again. He's one of the strongest characters in the 
field, yet we can't get a read on him because Bacon couldn't create a 
bracket to save his life. --- Game of the decade? More like Guru of the decade mirite? However, the Guru of the next decade so far is SuperNiceDog | 
| X could be legit stronger than Sonic. His 61/39 on Red looks a lot better now than it did three years ago; that's for sure. --- Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) http://i.imgur.com/gdl8lcn.jpg | 
| What I like about Zard's slim margin of victory is that I know for damn sure I must have made a difference. Now granted every other rallier for Charizard can probably say the same thing, but I'm pretty extremely sure that I rallied at least 15 votes. So even though the poll was kind of terrifying for a second there, it might be one of my top 10 contest matches because I influenced the outcome. --- XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism. | 
| ChenKenichiFan posted... X could be legit stronger than Sonic. His 61/39 on Red looks a lot better now than it did three years ago; that's for sure. no. just no. --- nt | 
| All this contest has been telling me is that Squall is now a top 5 character on this site. --- "But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside." "I am lightning...the rain transformed." | 
| Rallies ain't what they used to be. I called people on the phone for Frog.  I CALLED PEOPLE. PEOPLE I KNEW. --- Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif | 
| Everyone is overrated except for Draven and Squall. --- Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) http://i.imgur.com/gdl8lcn.jpg | 
| ChenKenichiFan posted... Everyone is overrated except for Draven and Squall. Darn right. --- http://img.imgcake.com/leonhjpguz.jpg | 
| ChenKenichiFan posted... Rallies ain't what they used to be. I called people on the phone for Frog. Bahahaha that's awesome I went as far as twitter rallying one of my friends for Mizno, but that's where it stops, ha --- XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism. | 
| On
 that topic, Cloud/Sephiroth suggests that single game overlap is about 
an 80/20 spread (so something like Crono/Magus). Bowser/Luigi suggests 
that intra-Nintendo overlap is more like 70/30 (e.g. Luigi/Ness). 
Quasi-entities like MMX look more like 60/40ish, though that's the 
roughest estimate. Mario looks like he'd be winning right now with about 55-56%~ of the vote. But against today's Crono, in a day match fresh off the Power Hour, that's not good. --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) | 
| Updated Top 10 Top 10 Closest Matches 1. Kratos Aurion  20.72% vs. Boko  20.70% - Round 1  0.02% 2. Charizard  41.49% vs. Zelda  41.43% - Round 2  0.06% 3. Missingno  40.58% vs. Tidus  40.50% - Round 1  0.08% 4. Lloyd Irving  23.62% vs. Big Daddy  23.45% - Round 1  0.17% 5. Vivi  41.27% vs. Mario  41.09% - Round 2  0.18% 6. Elizabeth  24.48% vs. Crash Bandicoot  24.24% - Round 2  0.24% 7. Alucard  36.32% vs. Captain Falcon  35.95% - Round 1  0.37% 8. Altair  29.26% vs. Lara Croft  28.82% - Round 2  0.44% 9. Ike  35.81% vs. Proto Man  35.26% - Round 1  0.55% 10. Rikku  29.43% vs. Weighted Companion Cube  28.85% - Round 2  0.58% Top 10 Smallest Night Vote Gaps 1. Charizard  11374 vs. Zelda  11359  Round 2  15 2. Missingno  11567 vs. Tidus  11544  Round 1  23 3. Lloyd Irving  6223 vs. Big Daddy  6177  Round 1  46 4. Elizabeth  6496 vs. Crash Bandicoot  6433  Round 2  63 5. Alucard  10242 vs. Captain Falcon  10139  Round 1  103 6. Tharja  11016 vs. Tiny Tina  10753  Round 1  263 7. Claptrap  7483 vs. Lenneth Valkyrie  7056  Round 1  427 8. Captain Viridian  3128 vs. Peacock  2685  Round 1  443 9. Tom Nook  7496 vs. Pyramid Head  7000  Round 1  496 10. Nathan Drake  9667 vs. Pac-Man  8974  Round 1  693 Top 10 Most Impressive Night Losers 1. Mega Man X  Round 2  16238 2. Jak  Round 1  13191 3. Ryu  Round 2  12143 4. Tidus  Round 1  11544 5. Zelda  Round 2  11359 6. Garrus Vakarian  Round 1  11143 7. Tiny Tina  Round 1  10753 8. Missingno  Round 2  10611 9. Chie Satonaka  Round 1  10465 10. Captain Falcon  Round 1  10139 Top 10 Least Predictable Matches 1. Vivi vs. Mario vs. Ganondorf  Round 2  4.61% 2. Draven vs. Mega Man X vs. Ryu  Round 2  9.20% 3. Pokemon Trainer Blue vs. Nathan Drake vs. Mr. Game & Watch  Round 2  14.27% 4. Yuna vs. Master Chief vs. Claire Redfield  Round 1  15.40% 5. Tifa Lockheart vs. Dragonborn vs. Yuna  Round 2  19.97% 6. Kefka vs. Altair vs. Lara Croft  Round 2  22.13% 7. Squirtle vs. Dante vs. Zidane Tribal  Round 2  22.27% 8. Charizard vs. Zelda vs. Donkey Kong  Round 2  23.70% 9. Urdnot Wrex vs. Cecil Harvey vs. Pit  Round 1  23.71% 10. L-Block vs. Auron vs. Ezio Auditore da Firenze  Round 2  24.86% --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 116/159 Today's Picks: Zelda | 
| It's nice to have a smooth, fun battle like this between hot shot characters with no surprises or consequences. | 
| 1337gamerpr0 posted... Pokemon fanbase is the most dronish fanbase argument DESTROYED. I don't understand why it was an argument in the first place "Pokemon fans are drones for all things Pokemon" was shattered by N "Pokemon fans are drones for everything aside from the 5th gen" is shattered by giving Lucario as an example And Lugia is good for "Pokemon fans are drones for everything before RSE" So now we are down to "Pokemon fans are drones for RBY"...well guess what Jigglypuff can't beat Crono even with Magus,Lavos,Ayla,Robo,Frog and Dalton in the match | 
| 8. Charizard vs. Zelda vs. Donkey Kong  Round 2  23.70% Kind of surprising --- XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism. | 
| ChenKenichiFan posted... Rallies ain't what they used to be. I called people on the phone for Frog. "Aha! Busted!" *is sued by Dan Povenmire, Ashley Tisdale, etc* --- The Hardcore Kid | 
| Nanis23 posted... 1337gamerpr0 posted...Pokemon fanbase is the most dronish fanbase argument DESTROYED. I like how you italicised Dalton as if he's the key addition to this match that would make all the difference --- XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism. | 
| Not that surprising. ZELDA will always have a good bit of bracket support. --- "The great GF...Bahamut." "...GF? I...? Using my powers...It is you humans...I fear..." | 
| It might be easier to take the Pokemon-Fans-Are-Drones argument seriously, if Squirtle wasn't the one used as a primary example. | 
| Also
 wanted to comment on Zarelda. People were heavily underestimating Zelda
 with that match pic. her cute cartoon look is FAR more appealing than 
her modern one. It's only Link who looks worse. Only an OoT pic of Zelda
 would have helped her more. Charizard meanwhile got a Brawl pic. Brawl =
 Crap. --- http://s19.postimage.org/aosug5mrn/Persona4.png | 
| Man the character I picked to make it to the finals was 16 votes away from losing in Round 2. This contest. --- Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC | 
| XIII_rocks posted... Nanis23 posted...1337gamerpr0 posted...Pokemon fanbase is the most dronish fanbase argument DESTROYED. That was mostly a joke at the person that claimed Dalton would be the fourth strongest Chrono Trigger character Don't remember who he was but oh it was funny | 
| XIII_rocks posted... What I like about Zard's slim margin of victory is that I know for damn sure I must have made a difference. This post is up there with 'Ad hominems are necessary for good conversation' on the list of XIII_isms. This is just rich. --- http://i.imgur.com/PL5UKJj.png Bearer of the Mark of Kan. | 
| I
 remember somebody once claimed Genie would be one of the strongest ten 
non video game characters in an all-fictional character contest.  I like
 Genie and all, but that's pretty random. | 
| ChenKenichiFan posted... Rallies ain't what they used to be. I called people on the phone for Frog. This is amazing lmao. How did they respond?!? --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] | 
| The_Djoker posted... Draven Tomorrow. GG This match starts an hour before I wake up I really don't wake up to a world like this Waking up to a Draven with 8000 votes and Link with 4000,Shepard somewhere being with 1500 I think I will stay in bed | 
| XD YES --- XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism. | 
| TheCodeisBosco posted... ChenKenichiFan posted...Rallies ain't what they used to be. I called people on the phone for Frog. They voted for Frog duh (or at least I hope they did) --- http://i.imgur.com/PL5UKJj.png Bearer of the Mark of Kan. | 
| Nanis23 posted... XIII_rocks posted...Nanis23 posted...1337gamerpr0 posted...Pokemon fanbase is the most dronish fanbase argument DESTROYED. Which makes me think, who'd be the next strongest CT character? --- "Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia | 
| seriously can't believe that worked, I thought I'd have to be far more subtle --- XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism. | 
| Someone influenced an entire *contest* winner by rallying Draven, every one of Draven's matches is a Top Ten contest match I can get behind this --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) | 
| Man
 I feel sad for actually having an idea who the heck Dalton from Chrono 
Trigger is.  Part of me is starting to wish I had never gotten around to
 playing games I got interested in largely through these character 
battles (other big examples being Final Fantasy VII, Shadow of the 
Colossus, and the Metal Gear Solid games), even though I've found every 
single one of those games to deserve their popularity. --- Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC | 
| XIII_rocks posted... seriously can't believe that worked, I thought I'd have to be far more subtle Yeah, sure you were fishing for my response. Riiiiiiight. Ad hominems are still the best way to have a conversation too, and I'm a probelm because I don't sell myself as a troll so you can ignore me. Karma Hunter posted... Someone influenced an entire *contest* winner by rallying Draven, every one of Draven's matches is a Top Ten contest match Sorry, Mario matches make up the All-Time Real Top 10, I thought we had already established this! --- http://i.imgur.com/PL5UKJj.png Bearer of the Mark of Kan. | 
| Karma Hunter posted... Someone influenced an entire *contest* winner by rallying Draven, every one of Draven's matches is a Top Ten contest match uh no, Snake's championship got stolen by LoL you're gonna sit there and take that? | 
| Fayt_Esteed posted... Nanis23 posted...XIII_rocks posted...Nanis23 posted...1337gamerpr0 posted...Pokemon fanbase is the most dronish fanbase argument DESTROYED. Crono's Mom moms are tough --- Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (is also Yoblazer) http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif | 
| Chart from the last match: Time | Zelda | Kong | Charizard | Votes 0:05 | 41.56% | 19.52% | 38.92% | 794 1:00 | 42.64% | 17.81% | 39.55% | 5080 2:00 | 41.04% | 16.98% | 41.98% | 3075 3:00 | 43.85% | 16.51% | 39.64% | 2235 4:00 | 42.65% | 17.67% | 39.68% | 1822 5:00 | 40.29% | 17.83% | 41.88% | 1576 6:00 | 38.58% | 17.33% | 44.09% | 1379 7:00 | 39.63% | 16.34% | 44.03% | 1340 8:00 | 39.26% | 18.92% | 41.82% | 1480 9:00 | 40.54% | 16.97% | 42.49% | 1897 10:00 | 42.71% | 17.91% | 39.38% | 2105 11:00 | 38.35% | 17.01% | 44.63% | 2516 12:00 | 43.35% | 14.39% | 42.25% | 2911 That last hour was rough on poor DK. X-Stats: Charizard  50.00% Zelda  49.97% Riku  33.77% John Marston  30.54% Donkey Kong  29.16% Lightning  26.62% Sackboy  15.41% Nier  15.27% Falco Lombardi  14.98% Charizard's prediction percentage was 23.70% --- http://gifsoup.com/view/874243/big-boss-o.gif | 
| 1337gamerpr0 posted... Karma Hunter posted...Someone influenced an entire *contest* winner by rallying Draven, every one of Draven's matches is a Top Ten contest match I don't see what choice I have in the matter! I'll whine come match day don't worry, you can all see the butthurt live then --- http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer) | 
| Nier  15.27% Falco Lombardi  14.98% Yeeees --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. | 
| Karma Hunter posted... 1337gamerpr0 posted...Karma Hunter posted...Someone influenced an entire *contest* winner by rallying Draven, every one of Draven's matches is a Top Ten contest match KH, if Kefka threatens Snake you have my support. Even the Chaos Contest would be silly if no Noble Niner made it out of his division. --- http://i.imgur.com/PL5UKJj.png Bearer of the Mark of Kan. | 
| Fayt_Esteed posted... Nanis23 posted...XIII_rocks posted...Nanis23 posted...1337gamerpr0 posted...Pokemon fanbase is the most dronish fanbase argument DESTROYED. We only got data on Marle (30% on Aeris) and Lavos(55% on Mother Brain,45% on Liquid Snake) so uh..whoever is the 4th strongest CT character,it sure isn't a strong one! | 
| Lightning
 too low. Also I bet being dressed like Cloud really did hurt with as 
bad as Cloud has been looking this year. Should've went with catgirl 
Lightning lol. --- http://myanimelist.net/animelist/swordz9 | 
| Also,
 to yo, I'm not sure how much X is hurting Mario here. We've seen X vs. 
Nintendo polls before, and every time it happened he seemed to be a more
 independent entry than the other Nintendo guys. He even held up to Link
 SFF better than Mega Man Classic or Mario did! He definitely overlaps 
with Mario more than Crono, but yeah. --- Black Turtle did a pretty good job. | 
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