Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1141

#401 | xp1337 | Posted 9/1/2013 9:12:20 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Ooh. Not a big gain. In the Power Hour.

...maybe we see something interesting?

I'm skeptical, but I want to believe.
---
xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#402 | Jakyl25 | Posted 9/1/2013 9:12:30 AM | message detail
Through Round 2 now in 8th Place on the Expert Leaderboard.

NEVER BANK. NEVER HEDGE.

13 matches to go for PRIZE WINNINGS.
---
Thank you, Eddie Guerrero.
http://www.wwe.com/f/wysiwyg/image/2013/07/wyatt07062013.gif
#403 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 9/1/2013 9:12:35 AM | message detail
Assuming Crono=Pikachu, and MMX is not hurting Mario, Mario beats Snake. I said I wasn't going to make a judgment on that without more info, but here we go.
---
Something something something
^Poorly disguised anti-caps sig
#404 | lightning-02 | Posted 9/1/2013 9:13:28 AM | message detail
Why did people want Mega Man X and not something completely neutral like...Gordon Freeman or whoever. What does he add to the poll other than add doubt to whatever Mario does?
#405 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 9/1/2013 9:13:34 AM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
136----1------------0.00
135----1------------100.00
134----5------------80.00
133----2------------100.00
132----5------------100.00
131----12----------91.67
130----15----------100.00
129----20----------85.00
128----34----------97.06
127----37----------94.59
126----53----------92.45
125----50----------92.00
124----46----------80.43
123----56----------89.29
122----65----------89.23
121----62----------79.03
120----70----------75.71
119----63----------68.25
118----78----------67.95
117----75----------64.00
116----95----------57.89
115----118--------55.08
114----81----------48.15
113----117--------45.30
112----156--------35.90
111----137--------40.15
110----168--------33.93
109----149--------36.91
108----233--------30.47
107----212--------25.94
106----252--------28.97
105----286--------26.92
104----320--------26.25
103----345--------26.96
102----310--------25.16
101----353--------27.20
100----390--------21.28
99------385--------20.00
98------385--------20.00
97------413--------21.55
96------387--------21.19
95------407--------19.16
94------386--------19.17
93------391--------20.97
92------442--------16.52
91------370--------19.19
90------357--------18.77
89------359--------18.11
88------331--------15.11
87------317--------19.87
86------296--------18.24
85------301--------18.60
84------300--------17.67
83------270--------14.81
82------270--------17.41
81------265--------15.47
80------234--------14.10
79------230--------17.39
78------232--------18.97
77------174--------18.39
76------201--------14.93
75------186--------18.82
74------179--------15.64
73------157--------15.92
72------175--------18.86
71------114--------19.30
70------125--------15.20
69------140--------15.00
68------122--------13.11
67------139--------10.07
66------125--------20.80
65------118--------16.10
64------106--------12.26
63------117--------18.80
62------85----------14.12
61------86----------8.14
60------90----------24.44
59------75----------12.00
58------65----------10.77
57------69----------18.84
56------58----------13.79
55------62----------17.74
54------55----------3.64
53------46----------4.35
52------50----------6.00
51------41----------14.63
50------42----------9.52
49------45----------20.00
48------47----------8.51
47------38----------7.89
46------27----------3.70
45------23----------13.04
44------22----------13.64
43------34----------8.82
42------17----------11.76
41------18----------0.00
40------14----------0.00
39------20----------15.00
38------11----------18.18
37------8------------12.50
36------11----------9.09
35------10----------20.00
34------14----------7.14
33------5------------60.00
32------6------------0.00
31------6------------16.67
30------6------------0.00
29------5------------20.00
...
17------2------------50.00

Omitted scores got it wrong.

A Zelda upset would have really hurt. Prediction percentages for Charizard were in the 90s for the top tiers but fell quickly once you get further down than -34 (125 points). The middle tiers did badly with prediction percentages in the low 20s or high 10s. If Charizard takes down Mega Man, it'll likely get much worse.

1 person fell off the Top 49. ChichiriMuyo did not have Charizard winning.

2 people got it wrong and survived. Former first place CarveyFAQs and Flock_Masta_P also did not have Charizard winning.
---
Pokemon VGC2013 US National - 39th place
Pokemon VGC2013 Worlds LCQ - Top 32
#406 | XIII_rocks | Posted 9/1/2013 9:14:01 AM | message detail
Three Pokemon matches in the top 5 all-time closest.

Good value for their appearances, I would say
---
XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism.
#407 | xp1337 | Posted 9/1/2013 9:15:55 AM | message detail
lightning-02 posted...
Why did people want Mega Man X and not something completely neutral like...Gordon Freeman or whoever. What does he add to the poll other than add doubt to whatever Mario does?

Because we want Mario/Crono to be a close, epic match like it used to be and to do that we need some way to restrain Mario. Crono needs the help!

It was honestly a pretty good match, hard to think of a better option to put in for third.
---
xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#408 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/1/2013 9:16:22 AM | message detail
That's more like what I expected to see.
---
http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif
Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
#409 | ctesjbuvf | Posted 9/1/2013 9:16:29 AM | message detail
Oh, there was the cut. Sorry Crono, it's over.
---
*2, *8,070,446 Kuroko no Basket
*3, *6,495,240 Naruto
#410 | xp1337 | Posted 9/1/2013 9:16:38 AM | message detail
yeah that's kind of what i was expecting/dreading too
---
xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#411 | XIII_rocks | Posted 9/1/2013 9:16:46 AM | message detail
Oh.

Oh.

Hot damn.
---
XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism.
#412 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 9/1/2013 9:17:18 AM | message detail
No idea how much X is hurting Mario, but it's not enough for Crono to even approach him.

Crono probably sucks pretty bad in comparison to what he used to be, but it also makes what Vivi did look crazier
---
A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
#413 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/1/2013 9:18:01 AM | message detail | (edited)
So
Does this match makes Vivi looks godly in the x-stats?
#414 | Denzokuken | Posted 9/1/2013 9:17:58 AM | message detail
lol mega man

lol crono

heck, lol mario
---
Fine! I'll go to the store and get your Goddamn drain cleaner!
Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over....
#415 | XIII_rocks | Posted 9/1/2013 9:18:01 AM | message detail
You know, it's a pity I still have doubts about Allen concealing vote stuffing because he's been pretty good to B8 for this contest. Allowing both bonus polls was pretty classy of him.
---
XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism.
#416 | xp1337 | Posted 9/1/2013 9:18:41 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
So
Does this match makes Pikachu looks godly in the x-stats?

pikachu would want a stronger crono, the worse crono looks the less impressive pikachu's performance becomes
---
xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#417 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/1/2013 9:18:48 AM | message detail
We are starting in the frenzy of the day vote, though, and it's difficult to overstate how bad CT is in the day. Not that he'd win or anything I imagine, but a night match would make this look a lot more interesting.
---
http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif
Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
#418 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/1/2013 9:20:26 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
Nanis23 posted...
So
Does this match makes Pikachu looks godly in the x-stats?

pikachu would want a stronger crono, the worse crono looks the less impressive pikachu's performance becomes


Yeah I know I wanted to write Vivi (edited it though)
But if using this Crono in relation to X in relation to Draven,after Draven beats Link and the whole contest..then it will make Pikachu look godly! I think
#419 | swordz9 | Posted 9/1/2013 9:22:01 AM | message detail
This is going as expected so far, but it's still really early. I doubt Crono overtakes Mario unless somebody rallies for a bonus poll lol.
---
http://myanimelist.net/animelist/swordz9
#420 | xp1337 | Posted 9/1/2013 9:22:15 AM | message detail
This is so weird.

That's twice Crono has thrown up a pretty good update after getting rocked.
---
xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#421 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/1/2013 9:23:28 AM | message detail
I'm unclear as to where you would even go to rally for Crono. We can use this match as a decent estimation for Mario if you wanna go the old Crono = Squall route, though that seems probably way too optimistic now.
---
http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif
Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
#422 | AlecTrevelyan006 | Posted 9/1/2013 9:23:58 AM | message detail
swordz9 posted...
This is going as expected so far, but it's still really early. I doubt Crono overtakes Mario unless somebody rallies for a bonus poll lol.


You mean like Red/Blue vs. Cloud/Seph, one of the best matches ever?
---
Menji has reclaimed what was his by rights. I was more of a man with his than with my own combined.
##Alec
#423 | xp1337 | Posted 9/1/2013 9:24:19 AM | message detail
In the face of these results, I'd be thrilled to take Crono = Squall!

or maybe not.

for squall's sake. =(
---
xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#424 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/1/2013 9:24:37 AM | message detail
This match makes me sad
People only wanted X to be in the poll because he is a strong,neutral character..not because they really want to see how he is doing
Him losing to Crono makes no sense
#425 | swordz9 | Posted 9/1/2013 9:24:44 AM | message detail
Red/Blue winning that might just be the best match I have seen since following these contests.
---
http://myanimelist.net/animelist/swordz9
#426 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/1/2013 9:25:49 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
This match makes me sad
People only wanted X to be in the poll because he is a strong,neutral character..not because they really want to see how he is doing
Him losing to Crono makes no sense


Not-Part-of-Mario-Versus-Crono Factor
---
http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif
Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
#427 | SnoicFactor | Posted 9/1/2013 9:26:09 AM | message detail
*wakes up*


Hell ya charizard! I knew it buddy!
---
nt
#428 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/1/2013 9:26:47 AM | message detail
Although it seems possible right now that in a 24 hour match Crono could improve on Mario/Crono 2005! Heyo
---
http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif
Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
#429 | KamikazePotato | Posted 9/1/2013 9:29:39 AM | message detail | (edited)
Assuming a 70-30 Ganondorf vote split in Mario's favor (which is fairly generous), Mario beats Vivi with 53.44%. Currently, Mario is at 55% on Crono.
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#430 | Nanis23 | Posted 9/1/2013 9:29:57 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Nanis23 posted...
This match makes me sad
People only wanted X to be in the poll because he is a strong,neutral character..not because they really want to see how he is doing
Him losing to Crono makes no sense


Not-Part-of-Mario-Versus-Crono Factor


I actually thought about that in the board vote
But we are long after it,and now most votes are coming from casual visitors...I don't think they care about the Mario vs Crono factor
#431 | tgs2 | Posted 9/1/2013 9:30:05 AM | message detail
At this point Auron might have been a better choice since apparently MMX is part Nintendo.
#432 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 9/1/2013 9:32:21 AM | message detail
If MMX was constant, this Mario would get ~43.80% on 2010 Link

So Megaman X is probably doing worse than he should because of being the third wheel or stronger SFF from Mario or something
---
A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
#433 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 9/1/2013 9:32:29 AM | message detail
Hopefully this means all the talk about Mario's imaginary "fall from grace" will dissipate now.

The Vivi match was very, very fishy. It was an anomaly and should be treated as such.
---
[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
#434 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 9/1/2013 9:32:36 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Nanis23 posted...
This match makes me sad
People only wanted X to be in the poll because he is a strong,neutral character..not because they really want to see how he is doing
Him losing to Crono makes no sense


Not-Part-of-Mario-Versus-Crono Factor


I actually thought about that in the board vote
But we are long after it,and now most votes are coming from casual visitors...I don't think they care about the Mario vs Crono factor


People didn't want X in because he's a neutral character.

They wanted him in because A) it kept the matches as three-ways, B) he is (probably) the strongest character to lose in round 2, and C) his presence made Mario/Crono at least vaguely debatable.

As it is, X is pretty much doing as expected, with a tiny bit of last place factor.
---
http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png
RIP Paul Bearer. Ohhhh nooooo. :(
#435 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/1/2013 9:35:33 AM | message detail | (edited)
Oh and if MMX isn't hurting Mario to any notable extent this is a really terrible result for the plumber. 55% on Crono in the Day Vote Power Hour translates to a much lower percentage over 24 hours. Not to mention Crono = Squall, already a really optimistic mark for Crono, puts Mario well below Sephiroth 2010.
---
http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif
Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
#436 | SnoicFactor | Posted 9/1/2013 9:35:37 AM | message detail
crono o0
---
nt
#437 | WarThaNemesis2 | Posted 9/1/2013 9:37:04 AM | message detail
There's no reason to believe X isn't hurting Mario any unless you want to argue that Mega Man/Mario is a match that wouldn't have any SFF.
---
http://i259.photobucket.com/albums/hh293/zukiraphaera/war-sig-1.png
RIP Paul Bearer. Ohhhh nooooo. :(
#438 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 9/1/2013 9:38:40 AM | message detail
Team Rocket Elite posted...
1 person fell off the Top 49. ChichiriMuyo did not have Charizard winning.

2 people got it wrong and survived. Former first place CarveyFAQs and Flock_Masta_P also did not have Charizard winning.


Yeah, ChichiriMuyo's a guru bracket, so it's easy to confirm that that particular bracket had Lightning taking advantage of the Nintendo split between Charizard and Zelda to advance.

Carvey was in the Guru discussion topic lamenting the fact that seemingly every difference between his XCarvenger bracket (which he used for his Guru) and his CarveyFAQs bracket seemed to be going in the latter's favor, so it can also be confirmed that CarveyFAQs had Zelda winning.
---
RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#439 | lightning-02 | Posted 9/1/2013 9:38:41 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Oh and if MMX isn't hurting Mario to any notable extent this is a really terrible result for the plumber. 55% on Crono in the Day Vote Power Hour translates to a much lower percentage over 24 hours. Not to mention Crono = Squall, already a really optimistic mark for Crono, puts Mario well below Sephiroth 2010.


If there's no overlap then MMX is getting 41% on Squall.
#440 | Ringworm | Posted 9/1/2013 9:39:05 AM | message detail
Checked the Expert for first time in a while to enter my Rd 3 picks, see I'm within 5 points of the leaderboard. Guess everyone is doing equally as bad, as I thought I'd been going terribly. Might need to think about it a bit more if I have a decent few days to start the round.
---
~ Ringworm ~
#441 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/1/2013 9:40:03 AM | message detail
I've already argued strenuously that X should be hurting Mario a bit, if you went and missed it.

Still tough to see this not being another underwhelming performance for Mario at this point. How many of us would really still take Crono > Squall now?
---
http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif
Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
#442 | swordz9 | Posted 9/1/2013 9:41:44 AM | message detail
tgs2 posted...
At this point Auron might have been a better choice since apparently MMX is part Nintendo.

Wouldn't Auron have made Crono look worse due to Square SFF?
---
http://myanimelist.net/animelist/swordz9
#443 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/1/2013 9:43:48 AM | message detail
Indeed, Auron would not have been a good choice for this match - even if there was no SFF there would very likely be something of a split between Crono and him. You would want someone neutral in an ideal 24 hour match (or REALLY ideally, make it 1v1). For a 12 hour day match, I don't begrudge X's influence here, because it shouldn't be handicapping Mario nearly as much as the day match is handicapping Crono.
---
http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif
Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
#444 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 9/1/2013 9:45:42 AM | message detail
Both Crono and MMX will look much better by the end of the match thanks to the SNV. Crono and MMX are both weak in Europe, so they'll do better when Europe goes to sleep.
---
Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#445 | Kibago | Posted 9/1/2013 9:49:08 AM | message detail
woot, squeaking back on the leaderboard over the alphabetical cutoff
---
Leafs / Raptors / Blue Jays / TFC / Argos / Tottenham
We'll get 'em next year.
#446 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 9/1/2013 9:49:53 AM | message detail
...You guys are doing it again.

You're acting as if bonus matches actually tell us something about characters' strengths.
---
RIP GrapefruitKing and Emporer_Kazbar. You will be missed.
#447 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 9/1/2013 9:49:59 AM | message detail
Crono needed Luigi here instead.
---
Hey, its that SuperNiceDog! Congrats to the Guru 2011 winner
#448 | Karma Hunter | Posted 9/1/2013 9:52:01 AM | message detail
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
...You guys are doing it again.

You're acting as if bonus matches actually tell us something about characters' strengths.


What a ridiculous, asinine comment.
---
http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif
Proud to share the same sig as Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (also Yoblazer)
#449 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 9/1/2013 9:56:33 AM | message detail | (edited)
Oh wait, this is a bonus match. I better change from the character I would have originally voted for if it was a regular match!
---
A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
#450 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 9/1/2013 10:01:02 AM | message detail
Crono manages to hold 45% on Mario at the end of the Power Hour. Good result for Crono says stat topic regular.
---
We are living our lives
Abound with so much information