Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1140

#51 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/31/2013 2:51:12 PM | message detail
Depends how SFF goes, the spread topic seems to be a good indicator on what the average board thinks.
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Points: 110/153 Today's Picks: Mega Man and Zero
#52 | pirate109 | Posted 8/31/2013 2:51:29 PM | message detail
Gah is WCC really going to grab 2nd
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#53 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/31/2013 2:55:54 PM | message detail
pirate109 posted...
Gah is WCC really going to grab 2nd


Why? it's been like this for the entire match
And it's not like there is going to be a rally or something (who would rally for second place?)
Unless the trends really doesn't favor Rikku..
#54 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/31/2013 2:56:39 PM | message detail
Asia waking up should favor Rikku near the end of the match, although Europe going to sleep might make this worse for her before it gets better.
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#55 | xp1337 | Posted 8/31/2013 3:15:44 PM | message detail
I was afraid Cube might be able to hang in there enough to make me worry that something silly might happen.

Was hoping Rikku could just effortlessly cruise to a victory.
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#56 | im317 | Posted 8/31/2013 3:16:31 PM | message detail
does Europe going to sleep really help Cube thought? i would think it would boost Zero a lot, he probably has another % to gain, but are there any trends that show less would come from Cube?
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#57 | pjbasis | Posted 8/31/2013 3:20:25 PM | message detail
Slow topic means good time to post stats. Wario and Pit are the first time I didn't round up because it would result in an equal number.


Squall - 8.36¢
M - 7.61¢
Tidus - 7.59¢
Amaterasu - 5.27¢
Banjo - 3.55¢
Rayman - 3.33¢
Vyse - 1.73¢
Video - 1.01¢
Adol - 1.00¢

Red - 7.27¢
Wrex - 3.85¢
Cecil - 3.47¢
Pit - 2.97(8)¢
Wario - 2.97(6)¢
Corvo - 2.00¢
Creeper - 1.73¢
The King - 1.29¢
Sissel - 1.00¢

Mega Man - 8.72¢
Magikarp - 5.04¢
Jill - 3.55¢
Kratos - 3.11¢
Geno - 2.01¢
Recette - 1.56¢
Travis - 1.51¢
Haggar - 1.41¢
Red Bird - 1.00¢
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#58 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/31/2013 3:20:49 PM | message detail
Boosting..Zero..?
Mega Man is pretty much notable for having TERRIBLE night vote (from 49% in the night to 58% in the day)
Zero is not different

Also Cube is..closing in..in the slowest comeback ever
#59 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/31/2013 3:23:26 PM | message detail
Rikku's doing a bit better than Cube in Europe and a bit worse in the U.S. and the match is really close, so it helps Cube relative to Rikku.
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#60 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/31/2013 3:25:48 PM | message detail
If it was fight for first place,then I would say Cube got this
But there is no reason at all to rally for second place..it won't change a thing in the long run
No one is going to brag about WCC beating Rikku with 50 votes in the 2016 contest or something

So,please..let WCC finish place so maybe I will get back to the leaderboard some day
#61 | Dabrikishaw15 | Posted 8/31/2013 3:30:24 PM | message detail
It;s closer than I thought it would be.
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#62 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/31/2013 3:51:58 PM | message detail
Greyfeld posted...
The issue is that you're arguing over the semantics without ever stating that you actually agree with the premise, which means that in the end we're both talking at each other, not realizing that we're arguing about two completely different things.


I agree with the general premise that New Square is weaker.

I disagree that it's anything major doom and gloom for any game other than FFVII, which is noticeably weaker, at least at the very top.

Squall looked fine. Zidane and Vivi looked fine. Regardless of what you want to make of FFX's performances (which have involved FOUR joke characters), they've looked fine. Don't want to hear about Seifer and Rinoa because there's no way of knowing how weak they were before this year (and honestly, Rinoa's probably not that bad, depending on how much Aerith SFF'd her. The FF fanbase doesn't irrationally hate her as much as B8 makes you think they do).
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#63 | ZinsanityCraze | Posted 8/31/2013 4:04:38 PM | message detail
Give it a rest, aside from FF7, the rest of New Square has generally looked pretty decent. Only the top dogs from Nintendo/Square, namely Link, Mario, Cloud and Sephiroth are suffering from the backlash of being too dominant in the past.
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#64 | Jakyl25 | Posted 8/31/2013 4:12:07 PM | message detail
Jeez, WCC cuts 50 votes in 15 minutes. Europe going to sleep?
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#65 | The_Djoker | Posted 8/31/2013 4:14:02 PM | message detail | (edited)
seph dominant? he hasn't been dominant since winning villains contest. Seph is just weak now and has been ever since he lost to Snake

Jakyl25 posted...
Jeez, WCC cuts 50 votes in 15 minutes. Europe going to sleep?


Well....it IS 12am here dude.
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#66 | The_Djoker | Posted 8/31/2013 4:13:21 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
#67 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/31/2013 4:14:41 PM | message detail
Seph was pretty dominant in 2007. He stomped Mario hard.
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#68 | Denzokuken | Posted 8/31/2013 4:15:21 PM | message detail
can we stop calling ff7 'new square', kthx
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#69 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/31/2013 4:17:40 PM | message detail
It's not Old Square.

There's a pretty clear delineation between the NES/SNES era and the PSX and onward era.

Which makes sense. There's plenty of people (like me) who first got into the series with VII and onward.

I mean, we can do Old, Modern, and Postmodern, but you all understand what it means when we say "New," so yeah.
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#70 | Yuri_LowelI | Posted 8/31/2013 4:20:14 PM | message detail
Square characters have fallen due to the garbage games enix have put out recently.
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#71 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/31/2013 4:21:10 PM | message detail
Yeah Vivi sure got wrecked in his match
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#72 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/31/2013 4:22:28 PM | message detail
New Square is FFX and onward.
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#73 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/31/2013 4:22:37 PM | message detail
Also this is the most boring comeback of the contest.
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#74 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/31/2013 4:23:35 PM | message detail
Nah, FFX is the end of the Modern Square era.

Everything after X is Postmodern.
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#75 | Denzokuken | Posted 8/31/2013 4:28:20 PM | message detail
FFI-III - Prehistoric Square
FFIV-V - Medieval Square
FFVI-VII-Tactics - Renaissance Square
FFVIII - Colonial Square
FFIX - Post-Colonial Square
FFX - Modern Square
FFXI-XIV - Why
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Character Battle IX Tingle Victory Parade - the journey is over....
#76 | ZFS | Posted 8/31/2013 4:28:42 PM | message detail
FFIX is Old Square at heart. Naturally, they've looked good!
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#77 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/31/2013 4:29:33 PM | message detail
VI and VII aren't part of the same era.

I don't care how close they are in chronology. They're not.
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#78 | SilverSwift | Posted 8/31/2013 4:31:48 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
VI and VII aren't part of the same era.

I don't care how close they are in chronology. They're not.


They're both very far removed from modern games, though. To contest goers, they may as well both be 'old square'. Amazingly, FFVII is actually sixteen years old, I think. Crazy to think!
#79 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/31/2013 4:33:49 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2315

Over half the site started with VII or later.

There's definitely a clear break when the series changed from Nintendo platforms to Sony platforms.
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#80 | ZFS | Posted 8/31/2013 4:35:09 PM | message detail
Yep. There's a noticeable distinction between FFVI and FFVII, especially on GaneFAQs.
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#81 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/31/2013 4:35:15 PM | message detail
The natural points of separation are the 2D/3D transition and then the merger with Enix (after KH, right around X-2).
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#82 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/31/2013 4:37:02 PM | message detail | (edited)
If you don't count the people that don't play FF period, nearly 60% of all the FF players started with 7 or later, with nearly 37% of all players starting specifically with 7! Almost as much as 1-6 combined
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#83 | VeryInsane | Posted 8/31/2013 4:37:28 PM | message detail
I'd call the PSX era Square games (FF7-9 + Tactics, Xenogears, Chrono Cross, Vagrant Story etc.) the Square Renaissance, similar to the Disney Renaissance.
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#84 | SilverSwift | Posted 8/31/2013 4:39:11 PM | message detail
VeryInsane posted...
I'd call the PSX era Square games (FF7-9 + Tactics, Xenogears, Chrono Cross, Vagrant Story etc.) the Square Renaissance, similar to the Disney Renaissance.


Yeah, that's a good idea. I guess we need more categories than just new and old, especially with so many games in the series. Damn, love FFT. I need to replay it.
#85 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/31/2013 4:43:31 PM | message detail | (edited)
"Renaissance", meaning a rebirth, makes sense in the context of '90s Disney - their last era of comparable acclaim having occurred half a century earlier. Don't see how it would apply to mid-late 90s Square, which was just experiencing its first greatly successful period. If Square ever experiences another period of great acclaim - especially after the turmoil they've been through in the last decade - I'd use the word then.
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#86 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/31/2013 5:05:55 PM | message detail
I'd say Old Square = up to the switch from Nintendo systems to Sony systems, "Golden Age" = post-switch, pre-merger with Enix, New Square = Square Enix.
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#87 | irriadin | Posted 8/31/2013 5:30:59 PM | message detail
I never post here, ever, anymore. But I just want to say that I hope Zelda inexplicably beats Charizard. Her art is really good, plus Wind Waker HD hype.

That is all.
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#88 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/31/2013 5:37:45 PM | message detail
Anyone have a link to the stats topic archives?
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#89 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/31/2013 5:49:56 PM | message detail
Slowest comeback ever
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#90 | Averia | Posted 8/31/2013 5:51:09 PM | message detail
If it was for first place It would have already filled at least one stat topic.
#91 | xp1337 | Posted 8/31/2013 5:51:38 PM | message detail
At this pace?

Doubt it!
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#92 | pirate109 | Posted 8/31/2013 5:51:43 PM | message detail
Looks like Cube has it
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#93 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/31/2013 5:52:45 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
Anyone have a link to the stats topic archives?


http://thengamer.com/stats/
I'm still uploading the topics from Round 2, though.
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Pokemon VGC2013 US National - 39th place
Pokemon VGC2013 Worlds LCQ - Top 32
#94 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/31/2013 5:53:24 PM | message detail
Thanks. I wanted to go through the first Vivi topic again, but I think it purged. Guess I'll wait!
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#95 | Cid | Posted 8/31/2013 6:13:23 PM | message detail
Team Rocket Elite posted...
KamikazePotato posted...
Anyone have a link to the stats topic archives?


http://thengamer.com/stats/
I'm still uploading the topics from Round 2, though.


wow I posted in the very first topic. and then never again.
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#96 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/31/2013 6:16:33 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
Thanks. I wanted to go through the first Vivi topic again, but I think it purged. Guess I'll wait!


All the topics have been uploaded. Mario vs Vivi starts on Part 1134 Page 10.
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Pokemon VGC2013 US National - 39th place
Pokemon VGC2013 Worlds LCQ - Top 32
#97 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/31/2013 6:19:25 PM | message detail
Thanks, TRE!
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#98 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/31/2013 6:36:33 PM | message detail
Match CVIII: (16) Zelda vs. (15) Donkey Kong vs. (7) Charizard

Previous Round

Zelda – 61.63%
John Marston – 27.13%
Sackboy – 11.24%

Donkey Kong – 45.76%
Lightning – 38.42%
Falco Lombardi – 15.82%

Charizard – 59.16%
Riku – 30.17%
Nier – 10.66%

Analysis

I was actually feeling pretty good about the upset at around the end of round 1. Zelda just placed an impressive performance, sure they were against two casual characters and they were flopping everywhere, but it was an impressive performance. Also characters from Charizard’s half of the bracket were putting performances that would place him below Zelda. All that was needed to seal the deal was for Charizard to underperform.

Obviously that did not happen as he had a very good performance against Riku. While it could be possible that Riku has gotten weaker since we last saw him Pokemon in general has been very impressive this round. Even going the pessimistic route, almost 60% on a boosted Phoenix Wright, 64% on Zidane and 47% on Crono and Magus combined are all good performances and as long as Charizard is ranked around the other top Pokemon then he should be able to win.

Another thing that may hurt Zelda is the presence of Donkey Kong in the poll. While all three characters are Nintendo Pokemon has shown to be a bit more independent than the other series. This likely means any chance Zelda had for the upset has more or less effectively died. Too bad we will not be able to know how much Donkey Kong Country Returns helped Donkey Kong.

I expect Donkey Kong to get crushed from SFF. As long as Charizard is ranked among the other top Pokemon, not a stretch of imagination then he should be able to finish above Zelda. With Zero advancing Charizard will be the favourite next round of knocking out another Noble Nine character.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Zelda > Charizard and Lightning

charmander6000’s Prediction: Charizard – 46.63%, Zelda – 38.53%, Donkey Kong – 14.84%
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Points: 110/153 Today's Picks: Mega Man and Zero
#99 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/31/2013 7:31:02 PM | message detail
Charizard about to smash this poll with 50%
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#100 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/31/2013 7:35:24 PM | message detail
http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/mightyno9/mighty-no-9

Your move, Zard.
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