Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1140

#451 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/31/2013 10:55:09 PM | message detail
I was worried about Charizard in this match pre-contest, but the actual contest erased any doubts I had of him losing.
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#452 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/31/2013 10:55:40 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
But... Charizard is a fraud. At least to some extent. There isn't much else of a way to spin this!


did you miss the POKEMON GONNA FLOP part


But it is flopping! In this match at least!

Unless you mean later on, but it pretty much can't flop anymore. This is as far virtually anyone expected the Pokes to go pre-contest, Charizard aside (who is a massive flop as he is a popular FINALS pick).
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#453 | creativename | Posted 8/31/2013 10:55:55 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
All the major Pokemon being the exact same strength is actually looking pretty likely at this point. Even Magikarp might not be too far off.


HIVEMIND

You mis-spelled DRONES
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#454 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/31/2013 10:56:55 PM | message detail
If anything, this is a strong argument for Zelda fans being bigger drones, if you ask me...!
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#455 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/31/2013 10:56:58 PM | message detail
Fayt_Esteed posted...
1337gamerpr0 posted...
Fayt_Esteed posted...
Mario at least was being leeched by Ganondorf. What excuses does Charizard have? None!


LOL
did you expect Charizard to be stronger than Mario or something?


No. But with all the talk of Charizard upsetting Mega Man, I wouldn't have expected it to struggle against Zelda...


Zelda might go on to do the upset. The problem for Mega Man was Zero not making it a fair fight.
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#456 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/31/2013 10:57:22 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
My jaw literally dropped and a warm fuzzy feeling of giddiness filled my body. Because how can you not love Vivi?


Being there in the first five minutes was the best thing in the world. Haha, oh, look, Vivi is winning in the board vote. Good on you, B8. Huh, he's keeping his lead for a while. Oh, there, Mario took the lead back, time for him to rise to heaven...wait, no, Vivi took it back. Uh, this is close. VIVI.

I was in complete disbelief.
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#457 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/31/2013 10:58:06 PM | message detail
Team Rocket Elite posted...
Zelda might go on to do the upset. The problem for Mega Man was Zero not making it a fair fight.


ZeldaFAQs gonna push Zelda further than Link if they can
you all know this to be true
#458 | Julian_Caesar | Posted 8/31/2013 10:58:31 PM | message detail
vcharon posted...
Julian_Caesar posted...
Fayt_Esteed posted...
Julian_Caesar posted...
Fayt_Esteed posted...
After this debacle, I'd say turd of the round has Charizard's name all over it.


I'd vote for Mario first.


Mario at least was being leeched by Ganondorf. What excuses does Charizard have? None!


So Mario being leeched by Ganon is an excuse, but Charizard losing to Zelda...isn't one???

You do realize that Ganon and Zelda are from the same series, right? And that Zelda is absolutely stronger than Ganon, contest-wise? If Ganon was strong enough to leech Mario, then that means Zelda is easily strong enough to "leech" from Charizard....or in this case, get more votes.

Unless you're saying you expected Charizard to be stronger than Mario, then the "Ganon leech" excuse isn't a good one. At least, not for saying Mario was less of a turd than Charizard.


Mario DID blast Ganondorf though is the thing. Zelda isn't "leeching" votes from Charizard, the term only applies if the 3rd place character is damaging the second or first place one. In this case, Zelda is winning and isn't "leeching" anything.


That's why I put "leech" in quote marks, yes.

OK, I do kinda see the point. I just don't think that it matters; the number of leech votes for Ganon couldn't possibly be high enough to explain losing to freaking Vivi. It'd be one thing if Mario lost to Zelda and Charizard lost to Vivi. Now that would be an interesting debate. But I feel pretty safe saying that Zelda would beat Vivi in a regular 1v1.

Well. Kinda safe, anyway. I doubt Vivi would get rallied against Zelda like he/she/it did against Mario.
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#459 | creativename | Posted 8/31/2013 10:58:41 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
I was worried about Charizard in this match pre-contest, but the actual contest erased any doubts I had of him losing.

Yeah same here...or at least, almost all my doubts, I still had some niggling doubt. Until the pic was revealed anyway, after that my confidence in Zelda dropped. Though obviously my notions about the pic were incorrect.

LeonhartFour posted...
If anything, this is a strong argument for Zelda fans being bigger drones, if you ask me...!

DRONES, DRONES EVERYWHERE

ARMIES OF THEM
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#460 | nkansas13 | Posted 8/31/2013 10:59:08 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
KamikazePotato posted...
All the major Pokemon being the exact same strength is actually looking pretty likely at this point. Even Magikarp might not be too far off.


HIVEMIND

You mis-spelled DRONES

Pokemon has the ultimate ensemble cast. It's going to have a lot of characters with essentially the same strength because there is no obvious heirarchy. It's not the fans' fault.
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#461 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/31/2013 10:59:45 PM | message detail
Chart from the day match:

Time | Zero | Cube | Rikku | Votes
0:05 | 45.19% | 18.75% | 36.06% | 208
1:00 | 42.59% | 27.76% | 29.64% | 5205
2:00 | 40.28% | 29.74% | 29.98% | 3873
3:00 | 41.41% | 28.04% | 30.55% | 3388
4:00 | 41.08% | 30.01% | 28.91% | 2802
5:00 | 41.42% | 28.96% | 29.62% | 2721
6:00 | 40.20% | 30.46% | 29.34% | 2321
7:00 | 42.51% | 29.13% | 28.37% | 2115
8:00 | 42.27% | 30.47% | 27.26% | 1959
9:00 | 40.23% | 30.09% | 29.68% | 1735
10:00 | 43.39% | 26.51% | 30.10% | 1641
11:00 | 43.25% | 27.32% | 29.43% | 1614
12:00 | 43.69% | 27.51% | 28.81% | 1465

Not a lot of shifting, except for Zero doing well and Cube dropping off the last few hours.

X-Stats:

Zero – 50.00%
Rikku – 41.36%
Weighted Companion Cube – 40.88%
? Block – 39.24%
Claptrap – 37.16%
Lenneth Valkyrie – 35.97%
Lyndis – 27.68%
Kratos Aurion – 26.13%
Boko – 26.10%

Zero's prediction percentage was 39.91%
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#462 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/31/2013 10:59:56 PM | message detail
I really hate that Vivi drew Squall next round. I have a feeling that Squall just SFFs him - kind of a crap ending to a good story.
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#463 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/31/2013 11:00:49 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
I really hate that Vivi drew Squall next round. I have a feeling that Squall just SFFs him - kind of a crap ending to a good story.


Sounds pretty swell to me.

Unless Squall loses to Red anyway, then yeah, sucks.
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#464 | Julian_Caesar | Posted 8/31/2013 11:01:01 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
But... Charizard is a fraud. At least to some extent. There isn't much else of a way to spin this!

Do I need to pull out all of the 'Charizard > Mega Man w/out Zero in the poll' stuff that was being thrown around???


No one's disagreeing with that. It's just that Mario losing to Vivi was way worse, by most standards.
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#465 | vcharon | Posted 8/31/2013 11:01:13 PM | message detail
Maybe people finally got tired of Pokemon domination...? Not sure.

Wish they had started feeling that way in Red's match!
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#466 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/31/2013 11:02:22 PM | message detail
I seriously doubt Squall beats Red even if Vivi gets SFFd. No way does Red drop that insanely good opportunity.

Vivi catching fire again is the only real way anyone but Red advances from that match, and I very much doubt it happens again.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#467 | Rad Link 5 | Posted 8/31/2013 11:03:35 PM | message detail
Pic factor arguments DESTROYED

Phoenix Wright > Vincent Valentine CONFIRMED

Draven vs Solid Snake vs Zelda COMMENCING
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#468 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/31/2013 11:03:51 PM | message detail
Current X-Stats:

Zelda – 50.00%
Charizard – 49.05%
Riku – 33.13%
John Marston – 30.56%
Donkey Kong – 29.39%
Lightning – 26.83%
Sackboy – 15.42%
Falco Lombardi – 15.10%
Nier – 14.98%
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#469 | creativename | Posted 8/31/2013 11:04:59 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
creativename posted...
My jaw literally dropped and a warm fuzzy feeling of giddiness filled my body. Because how can you not love Vivi?


Being there in the first five minutes was the best thing in the world. Haha, oh, look, Vivi is winning in the board vote. Good on you, B8. Huh, he's keeping his lead for a while. Oh, there, Mario took the lead back, time for him to rise to heaven...wait, no, Vivi took it back. Uh, this is close. VIVI.

I was in complete disbelief.

I think I clicked sometime in the second hour when Vivi had already built a significant lead. So I right away knew he had a shot to win.

Only later on after thinking about it did I become pessimistic because I remembered Mario's "clutch". That was almost (well...maybe not almost) as shocking as Vivi keeping it close - that Mario's clutch failed!

Julian_Caesar posted...
Well. Kinda safe, anyway. I doubt Vivi would get rallied against Zelda like he/she/it did against Mario.

I don't know if the Vivi rally really had anything to do with Mario. It seemed to just be Vivi love.

Plus again, it looked like the match would've been close anyway. The Vivi rally very likely boosted him over the top, but I think that would have been a complete turd performance by Mario no matter what.
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#470 | Julian_Caesar | Posted 8/31/2013 11:05:40 PM | message detail
Quick question. Link/Draven/Shepard starts at midnight, correct? And is a 24-hr match?
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#471 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/31/2013 11:06:01 PM | message detail
Julian_Caesar posted...
Quick question. Link/Draven/Shepard starts at midnight, correct? And is a 24-hr match?


Correct.
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#472 | xp1337 | Posted 8/31/2013 11:06:08 PM | message detail
Julian_Caesar posted...
Quick question. Link/Draven/Shepard starts at midnight, correct? And is a 24-hr match?

Yes.

We get Mario/Crono/MMX after this in the meantime.
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#473 | SuorGenoveffa | Posted 8/31/2013 11:06:16 PM | message detail
Just wondering, what's the EU split votes? I know most come from the UK, but what are the other generally relevant factors and of how many votes are we talking about generally?
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#474 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/31/2013 11:06:35 PM | message detail
Pic Factor has been obviously, conclusively proven at this point. What qualifies is subjective, but if you don't think VV's pic qualified the bias on that side of the equation is pretty much hopeless.

Zelda is probably doing a little better with her OoT look, too.
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#475 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/31/2013 11:07:22 PM | message detail
Vivi's result actually didn't seem to upset many people. There were way more celebration topics than complaint topics. You have to be a SuperGrinch not to like Vivi, really.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#476 | ZFS | Posted 8/31/2013 11:07:38 PM | message detail
Vivi match was gross. Bad result everywhere, worst in some time! Mario dropping a bit makes sense, though, as does the gap closing between the NN and the rest of the field. They are certainly not a step above anymore, to the point where an overwhelming strength gap makes up for LFF.
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#477 | superange128 | Posted 8/31/2013 11:08:17 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
Vivi's result actually didn't seem to upset many people. There were way more celebration topics than complaint topics. You have to be a SuperGrinch not to like Vivi, really.


I saw a bunch of complaining in the stats topic(s) about how rallying is RUINING everything
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#478 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/31/2013 11:08:41 PM | message detail
Mostly from the same people, though! Sup HM
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#479 | The Owner of FF9 | Posted 8/31/2013 11:09:49 PM | message detail
superange128 posted...
KamikazePotato posted...
Vivi's result actually didn't seem to upset many people. There were way more celebration topics than complaint topics. You have to be a SuperGrinch not to like Vivi, really.


I saw a bunch of complaining in the stats topic(s) about how rallying is RUINING everything


Where were there substantial rallies? Thought Vivi just kicked Mario's ass due to LFF.
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#480 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/31/2013 11:10:23 PM | message detail
superange128 posted...
I saw a bunch of complaining in the stats topic(s) about how rallying is RUINING everything


That's a general complaint about the contest, not about Vivi's match in particular. I don't think people were upset about Vivi himself (HM aside).

The LFF is what makes me more nonplussed about a big upset like Vivi more than anything. Even big upsets are made less interesting when LFF is involved.
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#481 | Julian_Caesar | Posted 8/31/2013 11:10:34 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
Only later on after thinking about it did I become pessimistic because I remembered Mario's "clutch". That was almost (well...maybe not almost) as shocking as Vivi keeping it close - that Mario's clutch failed!


That was such a nerve-wracking hour, right up until the 11:40 update when Vivi got a huge gain.

I don't know if the Vivi rally really had anything to do with Mario. It seemed to just be Vivi love.

Plus again, it looked like the match would've been close anyway. The Vivi rally very likely boosted him over the top, but I think that would have been a complete turd performance by Mario no matter what.


I really can't help but think there was a huge swell of Mario anti-votes in that match. As much as Vivi seems to be a loved character, he/she/it has never really been all that amazing in contests. Though I agree, it made the win more memorable that way, just like Knuckles>Magus.

Incidentally, 2005 was my first contest and I picked Knuckles > Magus because I didn't have a damn clue what I was doing. My bracket was awful and yet on that one day, I couldn't figure out why everyone was in an uproar. I basically said "uh guys Knuckles is a pretty cool guy, eh has spikes and doesn't afraid of anything"
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#482 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/31/2013 11:11:08 PM | message detail
Rallying does ruin everything (<_<), but what's good for the goose is good for the gander. Its disproportionately favored Nintendo this contest, Draven aside, so someone like Vivi catching the right side for once, especially against the sketchiest 'rally' artist in our contests (and I say that with Mario as my #2 character!) is certainly not unwelcome.
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#483 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/31/2013 11:14:57 PM | message detail | (edited)
Vivi is basically the best character in these things to capitalize on Mario anti-votes or whatever they were. He's not tied to Nintendo at all, and is universally liked. You could run Mario/Squall/Ganondorf and I wouldn't be at all surprised if Mario won with ease. What happened then was the stars aligning, big time.
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#484 | ZFS | Posted 8/31/2013 11:15:01 PM | message detail
I wasn't complaining about the rallying, just to clarify. It was more the result of the rallying. Not gonna pretend I wasn't hoping for an opposite rally at the end!
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#485 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/31/2013 11:15:23 PM | message detail
Eh, I think you're overstating Vivi's universal belovedness. The guy nearly lost to Tidus in 2007. Even among his own fanbase, he can barely beat one of the most divisive characters in the series.
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#486 | tennisboy213 | Posted 8/31/2013 11:15:32 PM | message detail
The Owner of FF9 posted...
superange128 posted...
KamikazePotato posted...
Vivi's result actually didn't seem to upset many people. There were way more celebration topics than complaint topics. You have to be a SuperGrinch not to like Vivi, really.


I saw a bunch of complaining in the stats topic(s) about how rallying is RUINING everything


Where were there substantial rallies? Thought Vivi just kicked Mario's ass due to LFF.


There were multiple 500+ reply topics on 4 chan.
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#487 | SnoicFactor | Posted 8/31/2013 11:15:58 PM | message detail
cut
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nt
#488 | ZFS | Posted 8/31/2013 11:18:23 PM | message detail
Yeah, this Vivi love-in is a bit much. If Vivi was so universally loved and adored, he'd be much stronger to begin with. He had the advantage of not being linked to Nintendo and standing out a lot, on top of a weird contest and rally support.,Not that it wasn't unexpected, but yeah.
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#489 | SnoicFactor | Posted 8/31/2013 11:18:38 PM | message detail
Charizard is destroying Zelda in the UK and in Asia. People think she won't lose >_>?
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#490 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/31/2013 11:19:44 PM | message detail
Yeah I think we may just be in the midst of, like... UpsetFAQs is what I've been calling it. All upsets, all the time, whenever it's possible!

...sucks even more for Snake! :(

(a Squirtle, what's that)
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#491 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/31/2013 11:20:03 PM | message detail
Considering how much weaker FF9 is than any of the others (and game strength matters much more than the actual characters as a whole), Vivi is pretty damn strong. Before Dissidia, he was the Auron to Zidane's Tidus.
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#492 | Janus5000 | Posted 8/31/2013 11:20:31 PM | message detail
Vivi is well-liked, but at the same time, FFIX isn't exactly a force in these things.

I mean come on the best character in the game literally lost to a glove what is wrong with you

of course, Vivi also has one of the most likable designs ever, so I guess there's that
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#493 | anondum | Posted 8/31/2013 11:20:33 PM | message detail
good to see I was right about DK being pathetic

bad to see I was not right about just how pathetic lightning was
#494 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/31/2013 11:20:38 PM | message detail
I will say that Vivi's easier to rally for than most FF characters, but that's because of the non-FF fans more than the FF fans. He's not a universal hate magnet for the people who want to see FF fail, like Cloud and Sephy are.

So that's one thing he has in his corner that someone like Squall doesn't.
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#495 | SnoicFactor | Posted 8/31/2013 11:21:11 PM | message detail
13 vote cut
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nt
#496 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/31/2013 11:21:12 PM | message detail
SnoicFactor posted...
Charizard is destroying Zelda in the UK and in Asia. People think she won't lose >_>?


Your inane observations are not garnering you much favor, if you were wondering.
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#497 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/31/2013 11:21:37 PM | message detail
Zelda being able to RSFF Pokemon could possibly explain Majora > GSC and Midna almost beating Mewtwo!
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#498 | SnoicFactor | Posted 8/31/2013 11:21:49 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
SnoicFactor posted...
Charizard is destroying Zelda in the UK and in Asia. People think she won't lose >_>?


Your inane observations are not garnering you much favor, if you were wondering.


dude, he already started.. People called this for zelda after 10minutes.
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#499 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/31/2013 11:22:00 PM | message detail
Vivi's strong relative to FFIX's base strength, yes, but Squall is so over and above anything from FFVIII, he might even be more popular than the game itself.

He wouldn't have needed a rally to beat Mario.
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#500 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/31/2013 11:22:07 PM | message detail
SQUALL
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