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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1140
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Don't worry, guys, CarveyFAQs is back on top! Contest is saved. (for a day and a half anyway) ~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~ www.gamefaqscontests.com ~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~ http://board8.wikia.com/ ~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~ http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html ~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~ http://www.thengamer.com/ http://thengamer.com/xstats ~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame ~*Character Contest Histories*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories ~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~ A = Strongest Character B = Character Weaker than A C = Character Weaker than B To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA ~*All the Match Pics*~ http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php ~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~ https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0 ~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends ~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~ http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages ~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~ SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense. Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated. --- www.board8.wikia.com |
Good enough --- BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls Points: 110/153 Today's Picks: Mega Man and Zero |
@lightning-02 The Vivi rally worked not just because it was taking down Mario but because Vivi is a liked and respected character that most people would support. The Final Fantasy bias on Gamefaqs is also understood, I don't think it would have worked for any other Final Fantasy character but Vivi. He's exceptionally lovable. Do you know if they will rally for Vivi next round as well? Would they like Pokemon Trainer Red, or would he be neutral? --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
The comments for the Wario "rally" showed some positive support for Red But I have no idea how /v/ really treats Pokemon nowdays (well...you can't post Pokemon stuff there...or you get tons of sages of "go to /vp/" |
For
the record, I think this showing from Rikku is just another sign of new
Sqaure falling off a cliff. They've been doing it all contest, with
the sole exception of Vivi, which seems to have been propped up by
4chan. --- PSN - Aevio "I'm on a Goomba." - BlackMageJawa |
Greyfeld posted... For the record, I think this showing from Rikku is just another sign of new Sqaure falling off a cliff. They've been doing it all contest, with the sole exception of Vivi, which seems to have been propped up by 4chan. This post is another example of people grouping New Square together with all of FFVII's bad performances. Rikku looks fine. Zero's just strong. --- http://i848.photobucket.com/albums/ab48/Leonhart4/Squall.jpg |
Marvel vs. Capcom 3 boost! --- Currently Playing - Super Metroid, MGS4, Brawl, FFVII, Wind Waker, RE4, SOTC |
2nd place in expert is ContestScrub well, looks like everyone except InvisibleOmega is a scrub then! |
Wait, people are painting this as a bad performance for Rikku? She's got 42% on Zero. That's pretty solid, especially if Mega Man as a whole is stronger this year. Don't pay attention to what she's doing on the Cube. That doesn't matter. --- http://img.imgcake.com/tumblrmb8ky9zpsk1qd3518o8250gifyd.gif http://img.imgcake.com/tumblrmb8ky9zpsk1qd3518o6250gifuv.gif |
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/7-site-suggestions/67111376 Sign my petition to make the poll of the day appear on other pages of the site and therefore increase vote totals. --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] |
If Zero is in as seemingly good shape as Megaman, it's not really any different from her 2010 performance at least. --- A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice. |
I dunno Zero is doing just as expected by the spread betting topic and most oracles But Rikku is doing...worse than what most predicted |
Yeah, because Cube is doing better than most expected. But joke characters are not transitive. They will do better against better competition. --- http://i848.photobucket.com/albums/ab48/Leonhart4/Squall.jpg |
Trend chart for the night match: Time | Mega | Kratos | Jill | Votes 0:05 | 56.23% | 18.11% | 25.66% | 530 1:00 | 60.58% | 17.46% | 21.97% | 5035 2:00 | 59.04% | 19.07% | 21.89% | 2910 3:00 | 56.00% | 19.57% | 24.43% | 2116 4:00 | 54.87% | 20.13% | 25.00% | 1684 5:00 | 52.20% | 20.15% | 27.64% | 1429 6:00 | 51.10% | 22.43% | 26.46% | 1315 7:00 | 49.32% | 24.94% | 25.73% | 1259 8:00 | 53.50% | 23.39% | 23.11% | 1458 9:00 | 55.81% | 22.01% | 22.18% | 1731 10:00 | 57.52% | 20.76% | 21.72% | 1994 11:00 | 58.12% | 20.57% | 21.30% | 2056 12:00 | 57.87% | 20.86% | 21.27% | 1932 Look at those crazy percentage swings! Quite a difference between early vote and morning Mega Man and night vote Mega Man. Kratos struggles early but does quite well with the morning vote. Jill does well during the deep night but struggles in the morning. X-Stats: Mega Man 50.00% Magikarp 36.65% Jill Valentine 28.94% Kratos 26.33% Geno 18.73% Recette Lemongrass 17.62% Travis Touchdown 17.21% Mike Haggar 16.47% Red Bird 12.73% Mega Man's prediction percentage was 63.27% --- "Why must we always choose between certain death and probable death?" "I'm in an epic battle to the death, FIGURE IT OUT YOURSELF!" |
Current X-Stats: Zero 50.00% Rikku 41.75% Weighted Companion Cube 40.83% ? Block 39.61% Claptrap 37.12% Lenneth Valkyrie 35.93% Lyndis 27.94% Kratos Aurion 26.13% Boko 26.10% --- http://img.imgcake.com/tumblrmb8ky9zpsk1qd3518o8250gifyd.gif http://img.imgcake.com/tumblrmb8ky9zpsk1qd3518o6250gifuv.gif |
Magikarp > Jill Stay free, YoBlazer(me) --- Chen Kenichi's #1 Fan (is also Yoblazer) http://i.imgur.com/xiKRQ2F.gif |
LeonhartFour posted... Greyfeld posted...For the record, I think this showing from Rikku is just another sign of new Sqaure falling off a cliff. They've been doing it all contest, with the sole exception of Vivi, which seems to have been propped up by 4chan. And you seem to ignore Auron getting smashed by L-Block, Seifer losing to Celes of all people right before Knuckles went on to show that he's barely stronger than Catherine, Vincent losing to Phoenix-freaking-Wright, Yuna letting herself get SFFed enough to get surpassed by Dragonborn (who couldn't even 60/40 Tom Nook), then Lightning who couldn't take advantaged of DK's history of choking... I mean, you can come up with individual reasons that each of these matches went the way they did, but at some point you have to think to yourself, "Um... maybe new Square isn't looking so hot this year..." Mind you, this is only a theory of mine, and you're welcome to disagree with me. But I just have a gut feeling about the whole thing. --- PSN - Aevio "I'm on a Goomba." - BlackMageJawa |
Greyfeld posted... And you seem to ignore Auron getting smashed by L-Block Auron lost because L-Block got rallied. Funny how you seem to be ignoring that. And everything you bring up has no bearing on New Square being weaker. Seifer was probably weak before this contest. Vincent lost to Phoenix because of a bad picture. Oh no Yuna got SFF'd by FF's strongest girl that's surely a sign of weakness for New Square. Lightning isn't even part of New Square as far as I'm concerned. She's from a totally different era. But if that's all you've got, New Square is still fine. --- Guess who I am! http://gifsoup.com/webroot/animatedgifs3/1345748_o.gif |
LeonhartFour posted... Greyfeld posted...And you seem to ignore Auron getting smashed by L-Block Like I said, you can come up with an excuse for every single one of those matches, but at some point you have to wonder if maybe new Square is a little weaker for this contest. Well, maybe not you, since you don't seem to be willing to consider the possibility at all. But I know that it's something I'm seriously considering. This showing that Rikku is putting up definitely isn't the same showing she would have had in 2010. --- PSN - Aevio "I'm on a Goomba." - BlackMageJawa |
New Square's probably a little weaker overall, sure, but those are not the death knells you're making them out to be. And it's not that "I'm not willing to consider the possibility." It's that you're using results that have clear reasons for the characters looking weak other than "They're just weaker." You can't point to an SFF match and say "Look at how weak Yuna is now." It means nothing. --- http://img.imgcake.com/leonpngpe.png http://img.imgcake.com/squalloweenpngem.png |
And
I'm not sure why you think Rikku would've done much better than this in
2010. She got 43% on Kirby in a night match. Zero has proven on more
than one occasion that he's around Kirby level. This performance is
fine. --- http://i.imgur.com/kCpvD.gif |
LeonhartFour posted... And I'm not sure why you think Rikku would've done much better than this in 2010. She got 43% on Kirby in a night match. Zero has proven on more than one occasion that he's around Kirby level. This performance is fine. Zero is up about 3% from the projected 2010 xstats, and Rikku is projected to win over WCC in a 57/43 match. Assuming those numbers are somewhat accurate, this match is showing us a slight drop by Rikku and a slight raise by WCC, which would be consistent with my current running theory (lower votals creating a shift toward older and more niche character fanbases, plus Portal 2 coming out in 2011). --- PSN - Aevio "I'm on a Goomba." - BlackMageJawa |
What Rikku is projected to do on a joke character in a multi-way is pretty meaningless. Look at those projected stats. Lenneth Valkyrie isn't worth 35% on Zero. --- "Hold on a minute! That testimony stinks!" "Witness! You can't just say 'Hello' and expect us to get anywhere! I want you to testify!" |
LeonhartFour posted... What Rikku is projected to do on a joke character in a multi-way is pretty meaningless. I have a different theory involving voting caps that I haven't quite worked out how to word properly to make sense outside of my head that would explain that, if it's anywhere near accurate, but I'm afraid that if I try to explain it here, it's not going to come out right and I'm just going to get laughed off the board. --- PSN - Aevio "I'm on a Goomba." - BlackMageJawa |
Forget
Zero. Lenneth would get 43% on Rikku based on those projections,
despite that we actually saw that match back in the day and Lenneth got
tripled. Would have had to be some jaw-dropping SFF! --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] |
Jokes
never behave themselves. If you read their matches literally you get
stuff like Tidus > Ammy 60-40 (I take Ammy in that match, by the
way!). --- We are living our lives Abound with so much information |
Kotetsu534 posted... Jokes never behave themselves. If you read their matches literally you get stuff like Tidus > Ammy 60-40 (I take Ammy in that match, by the way!). I actually think that WCC isn't much of a joke anymore. I think most of its strength is legitimate these days, as a Portal proxy. --- PSN - Aevio "I'm on a Goomba." - BlackMageJawa |
Cube has some legitimate strength, but it is still very much a joke. You don't go from 55% on Lenneth Valkyrie to 40% on Zero in one round if you're a normal character. --- http://img600.imageshack.us/img600/8718/leonflowchart.png |
LeonhartFour posted... Cube has some legitimate strength, but it is still very much a joke. Depends on how much of Rikku's votes would go to Zero if she were nixed from the match. --- PSN - Aevio "I'm on a Goomba." - BlackMageJawa |
I
mean, Cube's two matches are probably the best examples of how jokes do
better against better competition. Cube's round 1 performance was terrible considering what its competition was. You go from Claptrap/Lenneth to Zero/Rikku and WCC only loses 10%. --- http://images.cheezburger.com/completestore/2011/8/22/2094c2de-bae8-4f5b-9f27-67eaff0aaeaf.jpg |
LeonhartFour posted... I mean, Cube's two matches are probably the best examples of how jokes do better against better competition. Cube's round 1 performance was terrible considering what its competition was. Arguably, Claptrap stole a lot of WCC's votes because the humor between Portal and Borderlands shares a lot of the same fans. Also, WCC pulls 38% on Zero according to 2010 xstats, so it's not that far off. --- PSN - Aevio "I'm on a Goomba." - BlackMageJawa |
Greyfeld posted... Depends on how much of Rikku's votes would go to Zero if she were nixed from the match. But we're not arguing what Cube would do 1-on-1. That's the entire point. Jokes behave differently when you throw more than one option into the match. They have their own voting block. --- http://i52.tinypic.com/2zfiu09.gif http://i54.tinypic.com/10729w2.gif |
LeonhartFour posted... Greyfeld posted...Depends on how much of Rikku's votes would go to Zero if she were nixed from the match. You said that cube wouldn't get 40% on Zero like he currently is now. But since this is a 3-way match, it's impossible to tell if this is a true 40%, or a leeched 40%. If Rikku's votes were split down the middle and handed half to both WCC and Zero, then yes it would be 40%. But what if more than half went to Zero? We'd see a percentage shift that would reveal WCC's "real" performance. --- PSN - Aevio "I'm on a Goomba." - BlackMageJawa |
I said it shouldn't get 40% if you just look at what it did in round 1. Jokes are not transitive in multi-ways. Cube's own stats bear that out. --- http://gifsoup.com/view/477513/red-vs-blue-road-rage-part-1-o.gif http://gifsoup.com/view/477534/red-vs-blue-road-rage-part-2-o.gif |
LeonhartFour posted... I said it shouldn't get 40% if you just look at what it did in round 1. Like I said, there's every chance that Cube's votes were sapped by Claptrap, which would explain his worse showing in round 1. --- PSN - Aevio "I'm on a Goomba." - BlackMageJawa |
If
rikku's votes split 50/50 for Zero then Zero's percentage on Cube would
go down, not stay the same. Don't worry, it's a common math fallacy! --- Watch me play games! http://www.twitch.tv/lordofdabu |
LordOfDabu posted... If rikku's votes split 50/50 for Zero then Zero's percentage on Cube would go down, not stay the same. Don't worry, it's a common math fallacy! Hmmm you're right. They'd have to be split 60/40 to maintain the same percentage, yes? --- PSN - Aevio "I'm on a Goomba." - BlackMageJawa |
Greyfeld, new square may have dipped but I can't believe you're using Auron/block and Tifa/Yuna as evidence. L-block got at least 3000+ votes net from a rally, probably more. Auron wins easily otherwise. And Tifa/Yuna SFF means nothing. And of course Rikku's votes would go disproportionately to Zero, its called "non-joke LFF"! It's part of why jokes are non-linear. LeonhartFour posted... Cube > ? Block, huh I'm sure if ? got an 8-bit SMB pic it would be stronger than WCC. ? is all about nostalgia and that 3D pic didn't help at all. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
creativename posted... L-block got at least 3000+ votes net from a rally, probably more. Auron wins easily otherwise. Where did you get 3000+ from? I don't know anything about tracking the site's traffic numbers. In any case, going from "might get beaten by Ezio" to "within striking distance of killing off a near-elite" is a pretty huge chasm to leap over without any noticeable decline from Auron to help things along. And we're talking about a Dragonborn that barely managed to 60/40 Tom Nook. The Tom Nook who got doubled by Lloyd Irving in a 4-way with Mudkip and Mega Man X. The Tom Nook who got handily beaten by pre-Dissidia Kefka and Marcus Fenix. Animal Crossing lost to World of freaking Warcraft in the GOTD contest. That's the Tom Nook that Dragonborn could barely 60/40, and Yuna managed to lose to him due to SFF. And it's not like she lost by much. Saying that new Square is tanking is a little hyperbolic on my part, but it seems clear to me that they're all just a little weaker than they were in 2010. --- PSN - Aevio "I'm on a Goomba." - BlackMageJawa |
Most people would say New Square is weaker now, yes. You're just using terrible examples to try to argue your case because outside forces interfered with the L-Block result and ALL SFF results are meaningless. --- http://i.imgur.com/M7vKB.gif |
LeonhartFour posted... Most people would say New Square is weaker now, yes. So basically, despite actually agreeing with me, you decided to be pedantic about it because you didn't like my examples. --- PSN - Aevio "I'm on a Goomba." - BlackMageJawa |
Greyfeld posted... LeonhartFour posted...Most people would say New Square is weaker now, yes. He's disagreeing with you about the extent of the drop. New Square, FF7 aside, is perhaps one or two points weaker than last contest, no more than that. It's not something that merits saying it has performed badly. --- http://i.imgur.com/PL5UKJj.png Bearer of the Mark of Kan. |
Sorry you don't like me pointing out the fact that you're using bad logic despite me generally agreeing with what you're saying. --- "I can set you free, mate." "My freedom was forfeit long ago!" |
Greyfeld posted... LeonhartFour posted...Most people would say New Square is weaker now, yes. That's not being pedantic. Your examples almost couldn't be worse. As for 3000+, that's just net. The rally overall was much larger. And I believe lightning 02 went into the numbers a bit. You can also extrapolate them from the trends - L-Block is an entity that gets weaker as the match goes on. FFX has one of the best SNV's around. Yet block was slaughtering Auron with the SNV. The last hour was especially absurd, it was like over 50% for block and 30% for Auron. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
LeonhartFour posted... Sorry you don't like me pointing out the fact that you're using bad logic despite me generally agreeing with what you're saying. I don't care if you point out faulty logic. I don't happen to agree with you on said logic, but that's another matter entirely. The issue is that you're arguing over the semantics without ever stating that you actually agree with the premise, which means that in the end we're both talking at each other, not realizing that we're arguing about two completely different things. --- PSN - Aevio "I'm on a Goomba." - BlackMageJawa |
And we're talking about a Dragonborn that barely managed to 60/40 Tom Nook. The Tom Nook who got doubled by Lloyd Irving in a 4-way with Mudkip and Mega Man X. The Tom Nook who got handily beaten by pre-Dissidia Kefka and Marcus Fenix. Animal Crossing lost to World of freaking Warcraft in the GOTD contest. That's the Tom Nook that Dragonborn could barely 60/40, and Yuna managed to lose to him due to SFF. In addition to it being entirely ridiculous to take an SFF match like that at face value, I think it's clear we're not dealing with the same Tom Nook as before. He's fresh off his hottest game in like a decade, he had great stand-out factor, and he even beat Pyramid Head, something the old Nook would not have been close to doing. --- [NO BARKLEY NO PEACE] |
So what are the percentage predictions for Zelda/DK/Charizard? --- http://i.imgur.com/GhorUQg.jpg ~Masa |
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