Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1139

#401 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/31/2013 5:15:09 AM | message detail
And this really puts Sephiroth's and Cloud's performances in perspective:

(61% vs. Knuckles & Catherine)
(60.5% vs. Alucard & Bayonetta)
56% vs. Jill Valentine & Kratos
52% vs. Morrigan Aensland & Spyro
49.5% vs. Frog & Lugia
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#402 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/31/2013 5:15:25 AM | message detail
SnoicFactor posted...
MM vs Charizard is already very debatable going by last contest in which Charizard was stronger. Adding Zero against MM is pretty much a sure loss. I admit anything is possible though... Maybe the Smash boost is insane.


Let's not forget that the reason Charizard was so hyped was because of his performance against Mario. You know, the same guy who just lost to Vivi. And of course it's more likely we might get the 55% against Kratos version instead, which will be alarming even assuming Kratos dropped a good chunk since 2010.
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#403 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/31/2013 5:28:03 AM | message detail
Charizard would crush Kratos now. Kratos (and hell, Duke Nukem) has reason to decline in strength. Charizard, not so much. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Charizard did a full 10% better against both Kratos and Duke now.

Alternately maybe Kratos is like a stronger version of Ryu Hayabusa and collapses against actually popular characters. So this might be all SFF.

On another topic, who even had the bright idea of rallying Vivi over Mario? The only thing I can think of is someone wanting an oldschool gaming icon (which Vivi himself isn't, but due to being a black mage he is) to upset Mario thanks to Mario's games being whored out by Nintendo nowadays.
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#404 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/31/2013 5:41:37 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
Charizard would crush Kratos now. Kratos (and hell, Duke Nukem) has reason to decline in strength. Charizard, not so much. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Charizard did a full 10% better against both Kratos and Duke now.

Alternately maybe Kratos is like a stronger version of Ryu Hayabusa and collapses against actually popular characters. So this might be all SFF.

On another topic, who even had the bright idea of rallying Vivi over Mario? The only thing I can think of is someone wanting an oldschool gaming icon (which Vivi himself isn't, but due to being a black mage he is) to upset Mario thanks to Mario's games being whored out by Nintendo nowadays.


Lugia would crush Kratos now

The person that rallied Vivi is a new user called "lightning_02" or something
He did because..well..to quote him
I'll add that I hope in future your admin considers making some pro-userbase decisions for a change because I only did what I did for L-Block and Vivi because of his "rally your own personal army" comments. And I'm amazed how easy it was.
#405 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/31/2013 6:06:47 AM | message detail | (edited)
If that's the only hope for countering Draven then so be it.

A tetris block and a black mage sound like darn fine ammunition for the GameFAQs vs. Reddit war anyway.
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#406 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 8/31/2013 6:20:24 AM | message detail
What do you, mean "not just about UK"?

If you look at Europe, Mega Man is winning most of the big countries: Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, ...
Maybe he is underperforming a bit compared to the US, but those places are still favoring the Blue Bomber.
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#407 | redrocket | Posted 8/31/2013 6:35:45 AM | message detail
Are we all ready to admit Smurf is right about Badass Decline Factor?
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#408 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/31/2013 6:40:14 AM | message detail
Kratos has been stalling for the last 5.5 hours, would have been a good day match.
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Points: 110/153 Today's Picks: Mega Man and Zero
#409 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 8/31/2013 6:41:29 AM | message detail
Kratos and GoW are relatively night focused. Not sure how that stacks up to Resident Evil though.
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#410 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/31/2013 6:42:20 AM | message detail
Didn't GoW use the morning to pull away from ToS?
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 110/153 Today's Picks: Mega Man and Zero
#411 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/31/2013 6:56:06 AM | message detail
Match CVII: (2) Zero vs. (23) Weighted Companion Cube vs. (20) Rikku

Previous Round

Zero – 58.58%
Kratos Aurion – 20.72%
Boko – 20.70%

Weighted Companion Cube – 38.18%
Claptrap – 31.82%
Lenneth Valkyrie – 30.00%

Rikku – 41.57%
? Block – 37.52%
Lyndis – 20.91%

Analysis

After the Cube’s previous round I do not think anyone is going to give him a chance this round. Its performance against Claptrap, even with Borderlands 2 was pretty bad and even though jokes are not very linear both Zero and Rikku have quite a lot of strength. I am a bit surprised though, I know the Cube is a joke, but you would expect it to get a boost in strength from more people playing Portal.

I would give Rikku a small chance against Zero. In 2008 Zero essentially went equal with Vivi and in 2010 Rikku had a similar performance against Kirby as Vivi. Of course the main difference was Rikku had Kirby at night while Vivi had him during the day. The day/night difference places Rikku a bit farther back on this hypothetical situation.

Zero also looked pretty good last round, Tales characters were looking okay and Zero went and crushed what was once perceived as the strongest character from the series. Some people credited that performance from his badass picture. If the performance is true then not only would he win this match easily, but he may have cemented himself as a near-elite again.

Rikku could win, but I feel Zero will take this match. It is a shame because the best result for Mega Man fans would be for Zero to lose so that Mega Man can have the best chance possible on defeating Charizard. Regardless I do not think the average voter thinks that far ahead, I mean just look at all the double Pokemon matches that we can potentially have.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Zero > ? Block and Weighted Companion Cube

charmander6000’s Prediction: Zero – 40.45%, Rikku – 36.93%, Weighted Companion Cube – 22.62%
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Points: 110/153 Today's Picks: Mega Man and Zero
#412 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/31/2013 7:03:00 AM | message detail
WCC round 1 performance was..terrible
But after this stupid round im paranoid and I feel like a crazy upset can come from every damn match
Like..some sort of 400 comments mega rally in /v/

But I believe this is just me having an extreme paranoia,I even thought Jill could pull a miracle this match
#413 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 8/31/2013 7:11:40 AM | message detail
When I say "night" I mean night matches favour it. It has a great first half but its second half isn't quite as good. It was leading ToS 12 hours into the 2009 match, but lost at the end. Similarly, in 2010 had it been a 24 hour match ToS probably would have swung it. It does better in night matches than day matches, at least slightly. That said, RE probably does worse in the day. Not sure how much by though.
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#414 | BK_Sheikah00 (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/31/2013 7:30:06 AM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Mega Man is on a freakin warpath. This percentage should be cut sharply overnight, but he's currently almost equaling Snake's beatdown on what we can only presume is notably tougher competition. He, Samus, and Snake are the only ones this round who have dominated in ways we used to expect of the Noble 9.


Woah there. Let's not forget about Link, even if Draven has cast a shadow over him. Even though the site has started hating his guts (or the haters have become more vocal, whatever), his performance was still damn good. Not quadrupling Yoshi like the good ol' days, but still went beyond the tripling, a huge improvement over what he did to Luigi in 2010. Do not forget only him, Snake and Samus (and freaking Draven) broke 60% this round.
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#415 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 8/31/2013 7:42:41 AM | message detail
Speaking of ToS, I was looking for information on it on the wiki, and man.

The ToS page needs cleaning up. Someone with an agenda got on there.

Really the anti-ToS attitude in these contests needs to stop because the game's contest record is rather good. Even ToS characters aren't actually that bad.
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#416 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/31/2013 7:55:47 AM | message detail
Blame Ngamer and Red Shifter for that page

A big update is due after this contest.
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Points: 110/153 Today's Picks: Mega Man and Zero
#417 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/31/2013 8:03:45 AM | message detail | (edited)
So Yuna lost to someone that got 58% on Tom Nook,and Lloyd doubled Tom Nook 5 years ago
(ignoring Nintendo SFF and FF SFF!)

Taking about the Wiki
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My nomination rally got like..3 posts..and no else bothered
That's a real shame he really could beat 10% of the characters or something
#418 | lightning-02 | Posted 8/31/2013 8:05:25 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
WCC round 1 performance was..terrible
But after this stupid round im paranoid and I feel like a crazy upset can come from every damn match
Like..some sort of 400 comments mega rally in /v/

But I believe this is just me having an extreme paranoia,I even thought Jill could pull a miracle this match


I don't know why people think /v/ would have anything to do with companion cube or missingno, those are reddit level "jokes". /v/ rallies results that make people double take in confusion or seethe with anger, not understandable mainstream jokes that everyone and their dog could understand the appeal in and why they won.
#419 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/31/2013 8:07:03 AM | message detail
lightning-02 posted...
I don't know why people think /v/ would have anything to do with companion cube or missingno, those are reddit level "jokes". /v/ rallies results that make people double take in confusion or seethe with anger, not understandable mainstream jokes that everyone and their dog could understand the appeal in and why they won.


ah yes, we were SO ANGRY about Mario losing.....wait
#420 | lightning-02 | Posted 8/31/2013 8:09:16 AM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
lightning-02 posted...
I don't know why people think /v/ would have anything to do with companion cube or missingno, those are reddit level "jokes". /v/ rallies results that make people double take in confusion or seethe with anger, not understandable mainstream jokes that everyone and their dog could understand the appeal in and why they won.


ah yes, we were SO ANGRY about Mario losing.....wait


Do I need to explain what "or" means in a sentence? Maybe you're building up to your explanation as to why it wasn't surprising either?
#421 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/31/2013 8:13:05 AM | message detail
/v/ rallies stupid characters no one cares about aside from them and/or characters that can make us "mad"
Touhou characters,Wario,Waluigi,Missile and Rachette for being "stupid characters" (Missile is actually awesome but that's not the reason /v/ rallied him)
In Vivi case,I believe it was to take down Mario to "make NintendoFAQs mad" not because of genuine love to Vivi or FFIX
If it was WCC instead of Vivi in that match,I believe your rally could work too

Against Zero (which the Mega Man franchise is probably the most neutral here) it won't work
Rikku is pretty much loved too (even by FFX haters)
So yeah...WCC won't get rallied,but that's because WCC advancing won't make us "mad"
#422 | lightning-02 | Posted 8/31/2013 8:25:40 AM | message detail
Woah there. If you mean Recette instead of that weird fusion of her and Ratchet she's certainly not a "stupid" character and nobody thinks that at all. It's a popular game with those who play it.

The Vivi rally worked not just because it was taking down Mario but because Vivi is a liked and respected character that most people would support. The Final Fantasy bias on Gamefaqs is also understood, I don't think it would have worked for any other Final Fantasy character but Vivi. He's exceptionally lovable.
#423 | hylianknight3 | Posted 8/31/2013 8:26:20 AM | message detail
I'm still not at all sure about Rikku/Cube today. Rikku should definitely be strong enough to dispatch the Cube as long as there's not a sustained rally. After L-Block and Vivi's rallies, I overestimated the potential of a rally for Missingno, but its failure to materialize may have more to do with the fact that it was a night match than anything, when Squall was much stronger, M was much weaker, and many people who might have been onboard with an M rally were asleep.

We've been having so many daytime rallies lately (the one yesterday mostly dissipated because the ralliers couldn't unify behind a single candidate), so there definitely seems to be a chance for a Cube rally today. Rikku beat ? Block in Round 1, but not by all that much, and she was the only strong character in that poll. With Zero sucking up so many "legitimate character votes" today, it's not hard for me to imagine Cube getting a large enough share of the vote to get second.

Also, Cube looked weak in the first round, but it seems like there may have been some kind of blocky non-human SFF between him and Claptrap. I've heard Claptrap has plenty of character, but as a non-Borderlands player, it seems like he and Cube could both attract votes from people who enjoy voting for inanimate objects.
#424 | pjbasis | Posted 8/31/2013 8:27:55 AM | message detail
Even when Pokemon is not in the match it wins.


Karp > Jill sigh
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#425 | tennisboy213 | Posted 8/31/2013 8:37:02 AM | message detail
And next match Zard > MM and Zero
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#426 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/31/2013 8:41:59 AM | message detail
Only Draven can save us from Complete Poke Saturation
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#427 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/31/2013 8:52:30 AM | message detail | (edited)
Suppose Pokemon wins every match it has a reasonable shot at. We get the following as a Final Nine:

Link/Draven
Mewtwo
Seph/Kirby/BB

Squirtle
Solid Snake
Pikachu/Blue

Samus
Red
Charizard

Revenge of the lucky bracket placement as they kill each other off or get squished by Link/Draven.
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#428 | tennisboy213 | Posted 8/31/2013 9:00:14 AM | message detail
Vote Accepted


Zero (Mega Man X)
100%
6 Votes
Your Pick

Weighted Companion Cube
0%
0 Votes

Rikku
0%
0 Votes
Total Votes: 6
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#429 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/31/2013 9:00:31 AM | message detail
100% of people know what they are fighting for


Zero (Mega Man X)
100%
5 Votes

Weighted Companion Cube
0%
0 Votes

Rikku
0%
0 Votes
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 110/153 Today's Picks: Mega Man and Zero
#430 | raytan7585 | Posted 8/31/2013 9:00:40 AM | message detail
Zero (Mega Man X)
85.71%
6 Votes

Weighted Companion Cube
0%
0 Votes

Rikku
14.29%
1 Votes
Your Pick

Total Votes: 7


lel 1st vote for Rikku
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#431 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/31/2013 9:01:19 AM | message detail
Rikku almost caught up
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Points: 110/153 Today's Picks: Mega Man and Zero
#432 | superange128 | Posted 8/31/2013 9:01:58 AM | message detail
go Rikku upset
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#433 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/31/2013 9:02:37 AM | message detail
Wow, Lenneth and Claptrap are gonna be looking bad after this...
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#434 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/31/2013 9:02:54 AM | message detail
Rooting for Rikku so Mega Man has better odds!
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#435 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/31/2013 9:03:18 AM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
130----1------------100.00
129----2------------100.00
128----5------------100.00
127----3------------100.00
126----4------------100.00
125----12----------100.00
124----14----------100.00
123----21----------100.00
122----38----------100.00
121----37----------100.00
120----57----------98.25
119----57----------98.25
118----52----------98.08
117----58----------96.55
116----67----------95.52
115----73----------94.52
114----79----------98.73
113----76----------93.42
112----102--------93.14
111----92----------94.57
110----123--------90.24
109----129--------96.12
108----120--------83.33
107----134--------86.57
106----178--------87.64
105----182--------87.36
104----218--------84.40
103----223--------82.51
102----280--------86.79
101----296--------79.39
100----332--------78.61
99------344--------79.65
98------372--------76.08
97------427--------78.69
96------377--------75.60
95------419--------74.94
94------409--------78.00
93------435--------72.87
92------436--------75.46
91------441--------67.57
90------406--------69.70
89------432--------64.58
88------404--------69.80
87------394--------66.50
86------422--------64.69
85------345--------60.29
84------356--------61.24
83------327--------57.80
82------324--------61.42
81------319--------53.92
80------277--------51.62
79------297--------55.56
78------283--------48.41
77------225--------51.11
76------238--------42.44
75------216--------43.06
74------184--------45.11
73------191--------42.93
72------188--------41.49
71------161--------47.20
70------138--------38.41
69------149--------42.95
68------125--------42.40
67------140--------32.14
66------163--------38.04
65------124--------35.48
64------133--------36.84
63------127--------23.62
62------107--------31.78
61------89----------28.09
60------100--------33.00
59------85----------30.59
58------82----------30.49
57------84----------32.14
56------65----------33.85
55------69----------27.54
54------58----------32.76
53------49----------22.45
52------58----------29.31
51------50----------26.00
50------47----------38.30
49------44----------9.09
48------48----------22.92
47------45----------20.00
46------37----------16.22
45------29----------27.59
44------28----------17.86
43------33----------9.09
42------17----------23.53
41------19----------15.79
40------17----------17.65
39------23----------17.39
38------11----------18.18
37------10----------0.00
36------14----------28.57
35------13----------7.69
34------14----------7.14
33------5------------20.00
32------5------------0.00
31------7------------14.29
30------7------------28.57
29------5------------0.00
28------7------------0.00
27------4------------0.00
26------3------------33.33
25------6------------0.00
24------1------------0.00
23------4------------0.00
22------1------------100.00
21------0------------0.00
20------1------------0.00
19------1------------0.00
18------1------------0.00
17------2------------0.00
16------2------------50.00
15------0------------0.00
14------0------------0.00
13------2------------0.00
12------1------------0.00
11------1------------100.00

Omitted scores got it wrong.

Easy Mega Man match, Top 137 gets it right.

No one fell off the Top 49.
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#436 | Denzokuken | Posted 8/31/2013 9:04:24 AM | message detail
Mega Man fans not going to win any awards for intelligence. Looks like MM gets screwed over by Zero again.
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#437 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/31/2013 9:04:50 AM | message detail
Guess one of the Expert Challenge leaders banked Jill/Kratos or took Kratos > Jill because I've moved up to a new high of 14th!
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#438 | Jakyl25 | Posted 8/31/2013 9:07:02 AM | message detail
Kotetsu534 posted...
Guess one of the Expert Challenge leaders banked Jill/Kratos or took Kratos > Jill because I've moved up to a new high of 14th!


8th for me, up from 9th. Someone real high up goofed!
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#439 | tennisboy213 | Posted 8/31/2013 9:07:02 AM | message detail
What am I fighting FOOOOOR?!
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#440 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/31/2013 9:07:13 AM | message detail
Looks like the board voted Rikku to avoid Mega Man/Zero next round
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Points: 110/153 Today's Picks: Mega Man and Zero
#441 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/31/2013 9:07:29 AM | message detail
Welp, there goes my interest in this match.
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#442 | ZFS | Posted 8/31/2013 9:08:08 AM | message detail
Easy Zero win. No surprise!
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#443 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/31/2013 9:08:31 AM | message detail
Oh yeah, can anyone convince 4chan or reddit to rally for the jailbait? Both sites seem to have a thing for that!
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#444 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/31/2013 9:09:28 AM | message detail
In the words of Rikku

"Disasterific"
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Points: 110/153 Today's Picks: Mega Man and Zero
#445 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/31/2013 9:10:03 AM | message detail
Mega Man's only chance now lies in Zelda arbitrarily deciding that PokeFear is against the LAW.
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#446 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/31/2013 9:11:07 AM | message detail
redrocket posted...
Are we all ready to admit Smurf is right about Badass Decline Factor?


It isn't so much Badass Decline Factor so much as it is casual-oriented characters that get most of their support from their character design declining. Examples:

-There's evidence for a Mortal Kombat drop in spite of the series getting revived since last contest.
-Dante flopping.
-Ryu Hayabusa flopping.

The latter two can be blamed on DmC and Ninja Gaiden III, but then logically the MK characters would boost. So the theory of casual-oriented characters declining sounds best.
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#447 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/31/2013 9:11:58 AM | message detail
WCC is going to cut Rikku at this rate
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 110/153 Today's Picks: Mega Man and Zero
#448 | Kibago | Posted 8/31/2013 9:12:46 AM | message detail
and now I know what it's like to be alphabetically off the leaderboard. curse you, J name!

someone up there must have rikku or the cube, right
anyone
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#449 | swordz9 | Posted 8/31/2013 9:13:45 AM | message detail
Poor Rikku, but at least Charizard will beat Mega Man this way.
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#450 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/31/2013 9:14:16 AM | message detail
Updated Top 10

Top 10 Smallest Night Vote Gaps
1. Missingno – 11567 vs. Tidus – 11544 – Round 1 – 23
2. Lloyd Irving – 6223 vs. Big Daddy – 6177 – Round 1 – 46
3. Elizabeth – 6496 vs. Crash Bandicoot – 6433 – Round 2 – 63
4. Alucard – 10242 vs. Captain Falcon – 10139 – Round 1 – 103
5. Tharja – 11016 vs. Tiny Tina – 10753 – Round 1 – 263
6. Claptrap – 7483 vs. Lenneth Valkyrie – 7056 – Round 1 – 427
7. Captain Viridian – 3128 vs. Peacock – 2685 – Round 1 – 443
8. Tom Nook – 7496 vs. Pyramid Head – 7000 – Round 1 – 496
9. Nathan Drake – 9667 vs. Pac-Man – 8974 – Round 1 – 693
10. Jill Valentine – 5751 vs. Kratos – 5046 – Round 2 – 705
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 110/153 Today's Picks: Mega Man and Zero