Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1139

#201 | ZFS | Posted 8/30/2013 2:26:34 PM | message detail
I don't think Mario has fallen as bad as people might be thinking, based on yesterday. He had to deal with LFF, rallying, and probably a stronger than usual Vivi, so he probably still loses to Snake by quite a bit (for now, at least, until Nintendo regains the favor of GameFAQs), but I think the biggest takeaway from yesterday, and probably the whole contest, is that the gap between the rest of the field and the Noble Nine is the smallest it has been. I think it's to the extent that things like LFF in three ways can't be made up through sheer popularity over the other option anymore. 57/43 seems about right for Snake, unfortunately!
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#202 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/30/2013 2:29:05 PM | message detail
You'll all feel silly for doubting Mario when Vivi scores over 50% next round.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#203 | The_Djoker | Posted 8/30/2013 2:29:14 PM | message detail
Bonus poll should be Charizard - Blastoise- Venusaur
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#204 | ZFS | Posted 8/30/2013 2:30:18 PM | message detail
Vivi doing well just reinforces a bandwagon, like a joke character! Doesn't make Mario actually look good!
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#205 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/30/2013 2:30:58 PM | message detail
I was being sarcastic! I think the chances are a lot higher that Vivi gets SFFd next round. FF fans probably side with Squall to try and beat Red.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#206 | ZFS | Posted 8/30/2013 2:31:43 PM | message detail
FF fans are screwed embrace the era Pokes
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#207 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/30/2013 2:32:55 PM | message detail
You know, I just realized that Red is the one Pokemon entrant that wasn't given insanely favorable bracket placement. He was supposed to deal with LFF in Round 2, and then Mario in Round 3.

The contest gods sure do love Pokemon.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#208 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/30/2013 2:34:31 PM | message detail
Was Mewtwo's placement really that favorable?

I mean, he drew FFVII in round 2 with a fellow portable Nintendo character holding him back...!
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~War~
#209 | ZFS | Posted 8/30/2013 2:35:43 PM | message detail
Bit of a stretch to say Phoenix Wright is an anchor for Mewtwo!
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#210 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/30/2013 2:36:32 PM | message detail
Not as much of a stretch as it is to say Phoenix/Mewtwo/Vincent is insanely favorable to him!
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~War~
#211 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/30/2013 2:36:49 PM | message detail
Phoenix Wright is probably the most independent entity in the entire contest. I doubt he overlaps with anyone except Edgeworth in any meaningfull way.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#212 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/30/2013 2:38:03 PM | message detail
Well Phoenix chose to sabotage Vincent's pic and not Mewtwo's, so I guess you could say it was favourable.
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#213 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/30/2013 2:39:43 PM | message detail
I don't think Mario is bad at all either. I'd expect a good win for Snake but I thought that beforehand - it's just the aura of invincibility is gone for Mario so I was just seeing if people were gonna give him a chance now <_<
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#214 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/30/2013 2:40:46 PM | message detail
Still laughing about that picture, he looked like a 3D Phoenix Wright, obviously same person LFF

>_>
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 107/147 Today's Picks: Squall and Cecil
#215 | ZFS | Posted 8/30/2013 2:41:23 PM | message detail
I wouldn't, but it's because Mario dropping tells me that the general feeling for Nintendo is down right now. That's a bad time to favor Mario in matches against characters like Snake!
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#216 | jacko_vdz | Posted 8/30/2013 2:41:44 PM | message detail
Haha, good to see Red doing well. Many people were arguing he was to weak to challenge Squall/Vivi, but I think after this result he's going to take full advantage of the LFF.
#217 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/30/2013 2:42:49 PM | message detail
Phoenix Wright is almost certainly underrated against Mewtwo. His pic was awful, he didn't stand out like he usually does because Vincent dressed for his Sunday best, and Mewtwo robbed him of the early vote push he usually gets because people thought that Mewtwo vs. Vincent was going to be the main event (lmao).
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#218 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/30/2013 2:45:25 PM | message detail
I honestly don't think Phoenix suffered too much with the pic
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 107/147 Today's Picks: Squall and Cecil
#219 | -Zelmor- | Posted 8/30/2013 2:49:45 PM | message detail
Don't think Mario could get his act together and give the feeble Sephiroth a run for his money, much less against a roided up Snake.

Snake wins with 56-58%.
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#220 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/30/2013 4:14:20 PM | message detail
Weighted Companion Cube for first, you know it's gonna happen
#221 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/30/2013 4:42:00 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
128----1------------0.00
127----0------------0.00
126----0------------0.00
125----0------------0.00
124----1------------100.00
123----2------------100.00
122----6------------66.67
121----5------------100.00
120----5------------80.00
119----13----------76.92
118----18----------77.78
117----34----------61.76
116----58----------74.14
115----53----------79.25
114----56----------83.93
113----60----------71.67
112----63----------60.32
111----72----------76.39
110----77----------66.23
109----84----------72.62
108----97----------70.10
107----90----------72.22
106----134--------63.43
105----120--------65.00
104----155--------65.81
103----162--------56.79
102----171--------59.65
101----201--------65.17
100----236--------61.02
99------280--------60.71
98------295--------63.39
97------333--------57.96
96------356--------59.83
95------404--------61.39
94------451--------57.65
93------425--------58.82
92------451--------54.77
91------471--------56.26
90------458--------56.11
89------488--------57.79
88------471--------52.02
87------443--------52.60
86------469--------51.17
85------424--------53.07
84------413--------48.18
83------439--------48.97
82------386--------41.97
81------392--------42.35
80------334--------43.41
79------334--------37.72
78------309--------40.45
77------278--------39.57
76------269--------36.43
75------274--------35.04
74------203--------34.98
73------224--------37.95
72------221--------33.94
71------189--------27.51
70------163--------36.20
69------150--------34.00
68------146--------25.34
67------156--------26.28
66------161--------28.57
65------130--------23.08
64------142--------28.87
63------162--------29.63
62------115--------22.61
61------109--------25.69
60------120--------22.50
59------88----------18.18
58------82----------26.83
57------98----------17.35
56------71----------26.76
55------84----------20.24
54------61----------21.31
53------61----------22.95
52------61----------9.84
51------49----------12.24
50------45----------15.56
49------42----------19.05
48------56----------17.86
47------53----------18.87
46------45----------17.78
45------29----------20.69
44------31----------12.90
43------33----------9.09
42------24----------16.67
41------22----------9.09
40------23----------17.39
39------20----------0.00
38------11----------18.18
37------10----------10.00
36------16----------12.50
35------14----------7.14
34------14----------0.00
33------5------------20.00
32------5------------0.00
31------8------------0.00
30------8------------12.50
29------6------------16.67
28------5------------0.00
27------3------------0.00
26------3------------0.00
25------8------------25.00
24------2------------50.00

Omitted scores got it wrong.

Pretty good support for Squall in the upper tiers. The middle tiers aren't quite as good but not too bad either. The last -19 (128 points) gets it wrong and there were no more -20s or -21s so the top score is now 22 points off perfect.

7 people fell off the Top 49. Kibago, Goldenpants, Masato_Tanaka, ZeroSignal620, BK_Sheikah00, ForwardArrow and junglebob22 did not have Squall winning.

3 people got it wrong and survived. Current first place SuorGenoveffa, ChenKenichiFan and dimi161 also did not have Squall winning.
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Pokemon VGC2013 US National - 39th place
Pokemon VGC2013 Worlds LCQ - Top 32
#222 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/30/2013 5:52:51 PM | message detail
we gotta find a way to have Red vs Blue in this contest
#223 | im317 | Posted 8/30/2013 5:55:30 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
we gotta find a way to have Red vs Blue in this contest


why? so we can watch Red 70>30 Blue?
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#224 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 8/30/2013 6:19:26 PM | message detail
Last match was clearly a blip. It doesn't reflect on Mario's strength.

Man though, if Red somehow manages to win this whole thing, that would make my life.
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#225 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/30/2013 6:27:58 PM | message detail
*Mario can only SFF Mega Man to the tune of 42% of the vote*
*Mario lets Charizard get 46.5% on him*
*Mario lets Vivi BEAT him*

Mario is still the #2 character guys don't worry he just keeps having fluke matches but you shouldn't worry about them, it's not like it'll ever happen again
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#226 | ZFS | Posted 8/30/2013 6:31:46 PM | message detail
I wouldn't call it a blip. Mario just isn't where he used to be, which makes sense because Nintendo isn't where they used to be. The two are connected!
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#227 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 8/30/2013 6:35:59 PM | message detail | (edited)
Yeah that Charizard

What a weakling

And it's not like there hadn't JUST been a Pokémon game released or anything.

Seriously, if you want to say Mario would lose to Snake, fine, I withhold judgment. Those are TERRIBLE examples though. Awful. Think about things before you post!

Edit: HM, that statement would have been fine if it had affected more than just Mario. Nintendo characters have been fine all contest, some better than others, but no decrease evident. I do not believe that is related. That said, it is possible that the 2DS had something to do with it.
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#228 | ZFS | Posted 8/30/2013 6:33:37 PM | message detail
And on that note, I would think that Samus would be more likely to endure a decline than Mario, or maybe even Link. Might be the bad return of the Samus > Mario indirectly argument - how do we feel about this?
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#229 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/30/2013 6:43:57 PM | message detail
I've always toyed with Samus > Mario indirectly, but the Vivi match was the first thing that made me really straighten up and reevaluate how they are in relation to one another. Samus SFFing Knuckles like she did doesn't really seem impressive at all either, though, judging by today. Knuckles is TERRIBLE to be basically even with Cecil looking at this.

Ideally we'd set Snake up to run through a gauntlet of them both and compare direct performances. Mario first, then Samus. It's contingent on him being able to at least beat Mario though, otherwise we just get Mario/Samus again.
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#230 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/30/2013 6:54:00 PM | message detail
Oh, but Mario/Crono/MMXorwhoever should really be our best gauge. It's one of the cleanest matches he'll have had in years.
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#231 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/30/2013 6:58:26 PM | message detail
I don't have any issues with Samus being stronger than Mario indirectly. Extremely doubtful that she ever wins 1 v 1, though.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#232 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/30/2013 7:03:32 PM | message detail
Match CVII: (2) Zero vs. (23) Weighted Companion Cube vs. (20) Rikku

Previous Round

Zero – 58.58%
Kratos Aurion – 20.72%
Boko – 20.70%

Weighted Companion Cube – 38.18%
Claptrap – 31.82%
Lenneth Valkyrie – 30.00%

Rikku – 41.57%
? Block – 37.52%
Lyndis – 20.91%

Analysis

After the Cube’s previous round I do not think anyone is going to give him a chance this round. Its performance against Claptrap, even with Borderlands 2 was pretty bad and even though jokes are not very linear both Zero and Rikku have quite a lot of strength. I am a bit surprised though, I know the Cube is a joke, but you would expect it to get a boost in strength from more people playing Portal.

I would give Rikku a small chance against Zero. In 2008 Zero essentially went equal with Vivi and in 2010 Rikku had a similar performance against Kirby as Vivi. Of course the main difference was Rikku had Kirby at night while Vivi had him during the day. The day/night difference places Rikku a bit farther back on this hypothetical situation.

Zero also looked pretty good last round, Tales characters were looking okay and Zero went and crushed what was once perceived as the strongest character from the series. Some people credited that performance from his badass picture. If the performance is true then not only would he win this match easily, but he may have cemented himself as a near-elite again.

Rikku could win, but I feel Zero will take this match. It is a shame because the best result for Mega Man fans would be for Zero to lose so that Mega Man can have the best chance possible on defeating Charizard. Regardless I do not think the average voter thinks that far ahead, I mean just look at all the double Pokemon matches that we can potentially have.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Zero > ? Block and Weighted Companion Cube

charmander6000’s Prediction: Zero – 40.45%, Rikku – 36.93%, Weighted Companion Cube – 22.62%
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 107/147 Today's Picks: Squall and Cecil
#233 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/30/2013 7:05:42 PM | message detail
Hey man, Megaman/Jill/Kratos isn't going to be that boring, you don't have to skip over it!
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#234 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/30/2013 7:07:47 PM | message detail | (edited)
I actually don't think Mario > Mega Man 2010 had any SFF worth caring about. Mario couldn't SFF Zero in 2005 or MMX in 2008 by noticeable amounts either.

Mega Man was about even with Crono and Sonic in 2006 and he struggled about as much as they did in fourways; he just got "lucky" that he didn't have to go up against a Square near-elite or, uh, Bandwagon Kirby and instead was "only" embarrassed by an LFF match with a joke. And for obvious reasons, Mega Man's performances in 2010 against Zack and Hayabusa no longer look impressive, the latter probably being a pic-related fraud regardless.

I don't think Charizard is going to need Zero in that match to win.
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#235 | Scarlettail | Posted 8/30/2013 7:09:13 PM | message detail
Haha, Mega Man is next, not Zero.
#236 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 8/30/2013 7:19:42 PM | message detail
ZFS posted...
I don't think Mario has fallen as bad as people might be thinking, based on yesterday.


Are folks actually saying Mario has dropped based on an LFF, rallied 3-way poll? Didn't Majora / RBY / GSC / MGS into Majora / GSC not making sense cement how unreliable multi-way polls are?
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#237 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 8/30/2013 7:21:53 PM | message detail
So yeah since KH mentioned the Mario/Charizard match for his pro-Snake agenda, I'll balance with this.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3838

Not even saying Mario would win, just that Charizard is an awful measuring stick. If anything those results make Mario look better!

Man, Pokémon is beastly now. At least two of the strongest non-Noble Niners are Pokémon. Red is looking awesome. Blue looked Fox tier. Maybe our only chance to out-rally Draven. PokéFAQs is in full swing.
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#238 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/30/2013 7:30:28 PM | message detail
Lightning Strikes posted...
So yeah since KH mentioned the Mario/Charizard match for his pro-Snake agenda, I'll balance with this.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3838

Not even saying Mario would win, just that Charizard is an awful measuring stick. If anything those results make Mario look better!

Man, Pokémon is beastly now. At least two of the strongest non-Noble Niners are Pokémon. Red is looking awesome. Blue looked Fox tier. Maybe our only chance to out-rally Draven. PokéFAQs is in full swing.


GameFAQs voters don't matter to Draven. Pokemon could be winning their matches with 110% vote the votes and still not come close to beating Draven.
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Pokemon VGC2013 US National - 39th place
Pokemon VGC2013 Worlds LCQ - Top 32
#239 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/30/2013 7:30:43 PM | message detail
'Snake/Pikachu and Mario/Charizard are even remotely comparable' - LS arguments
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#240 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/30/2013 7:32:52 PM | message detail
charmander setting the curse out too early, its over
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#241 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 8/30/2013 7:36:03 PM | message detail
Team Rocket Elite posted...
Lightning Strikes posted...
So yeah since KH mentioned the Mario/Charizard match for his pro-Snake agenda, I'll balance with this.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3838

Not even saying Mario would win, just that Charizard is an awful measuring stick. If anything those results make Mario look better!

Man, Pokémon is beastly now. At least two of the strongest non-Noble Niners are Pokémon. Red is looking awesome. Blue looked Fox tier. Maybe our only chance to out-rally Draven. PokéFAQs is in full swing.


GameFAQs voters don't matter to Draven. Pokemon could be winning their matches with 110% vote the votes and still not come close to beating Draven.


I'm talking about rallying r/pokemon. It's the only specific gaming subreddit that rivals r/leagueoflegends in size. Some people have discussed the idea already.

Also KH, not gonna comment if that's your response. It's pretty clear your mind's made up and was a long time ago.
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#242 | Scarlettail | Posted 8/30/2013 7:37:36 PM | message detail
Lightning Strikes posted...
Team Rocket Elite posted...
Lightning Strikes posted...
So yeah since KH mentioned the Mario/Charizard match for his pro-Snake agenda, I'll balance with this.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/3838

Not even saying Mario would win, just that Charizard is an awful measuring stick. If anything those results make Mario look better!

Man, Pokémon is beastly now. At least two of the strongest non-Noble Niners are Pokémon. Red is looking awesome. Blue looked Fox tier. Maybe our only chance to out-rally Draven. PokéFAQs is in full swing.


GameFAQs voters don't matter to Draven. Pokemon could be winning their matches with 110% vote the votes and still not come close to beating Draven.


I'm talking about rallying r/pokemon. It's the only specific gaming subreddit that rivals r/leagueoflegends in size. Some people have discussed the idea already.

Also KH, not gonna comment if that's your response. It's pretty clear your mind's made up and was a long time ago.


It hasn't been successful when tried in past matches. Nothing is as responsive as LoL.
#243 | Janus5000 | Posted 8/30/2013 7:38:31 PM | message detail
People tried rallying there for Missingno.

it should go without saying but it's not very effective
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#244 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/30/2013 7:38:31 PM | message detail
How well did that rally go for Missingno.?
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Pokemon VGC2013 US National - 39th place
Pokemon VGC2013 Worlds LCQ - Top 32
#245 | Scarlettail | Posted 8/30/2013 7:39:57 PM | message detail
Janus5000 posted...
People tried rallying there for Missingno.

it should go without saying but it's not very effective


Well I didn't try and help it, for one, since I was uncaring of whether Missingno won or not. Mewtwo and Pikachu rallies didn't get far.
#246 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/30/2013 7:46:46 PM | message detail
You can see for yourself here:

http://www.reddit.com/search?q=Missingno&sort=new

None of them really took off.
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[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
#247 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/30/2013 7:47:56 PM | message detail
Pokemon can get rallied decently - it's a nontrivial reason why they're looking good, as people from this board throw up like five reddit rallies for them on the biggest boards every match - but it's a drop in the bucket compared to LoL. Pokemon are just as powerless in the face of Draven as everything else.
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#248 | Lightning Strikes | Posted 8/30/2013 7:54:37 PM | message detail
I wasn't aware of that. Makes me wonder why the second Draven rally was so successful. The first one wasn't THAT big, Teemo flopped, why did 50k votes suddenly materialise in round 2? Makes things look very suspicious for one reason or another.
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#249 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/30/2013 8:05:41 PM | message detail
Damn it, I just wanted this round to end
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 107/147 Today's Picks: Squall and Cecil
#250 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/30/2013 8:06:14 PM | message detail
Match CVI: (1) Mega Man vs. (6) Kratos vs. (19) Jill Valentine

Previous Round

Mega Man – 55.28%
Magikarp – 31.98%
Geno – 12.74%

Kratos – 50.29%
Recette Lemongrass – 25.28%
Travis Touchdown – 24.43%

Jill Valentine – 59.54%
Mike Haggar – 23.67%
Red Bird – 16.79%

Analysis

While there was some talk about an upset on Mega Man he won the match relative unscathed. Even with all the weirdness we have seen this round Mega Man should have no issue winning this match. Both opponents are far away from him and honestly neither has a large fanbase to rally that they can take advantage of.

The fight for second is a bit debatable. Kratos did about expected on Travis had this been 2010, but I expected Travis to be weaker. No More Heroes has essentially disappeared from gaming which is bad news for Travis. Losing to Recette is also a warning sign, but you cannot really fully judge a character that has never performed, even if all signs pointed to her being weak.

I felt Jill looked pretty good last round. Of course her opponents were two fodder characters, but Poison has shown to have some strength and I expect Haggar to be stronger, even if she had two good reasons to over perform in her match. Regardless Jill has always shown to be a decent mid-carder so at the very least she will make the match interesting if she cannot win.

I feel both characters are around the same strength so it is anyone’s guess to who wins. I am going with Kratos, while I doubt Capcom SFF is a major force Mega Man being more related to Jill than Kratos may be something that tilts the scales just enough for Kratos to pull through.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Mega Man > Kratos and Jill Valentine

charmander6000’s Prediction: Mega Man – 49.56%, Kratos – 26.34%, Jill Valentine – 24.10%
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 107/147 Today's Picks: Squall and Cecil