Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1139

#51 | XIII_rocks | Posted 8/30/2013 9:38:01 AM | message detail
Damn it! 120 points. Curse my name starting with an X!
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#52 | lightning-02 | Posted 8/30/2013 9:39:30 AM | message detail
votes getting split, this is why rallies don't work unless there's clear agreement on one character. Usually out of every 5 votes you'd have 4 for the rally target and 1 a troll vote against. Here you've got 2 for Wario, 2 for Wrex and 1 a troll vote for Red and it's just doing nothing but inflate the votals.
#53 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/30/2013 9:40:50 AM | message detail
How the hell is Wario beating Wrex?
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#54 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/30/2013 9:41:08 AM | message detail
lightning-02 posted...
votes getting split, this is why rallies don't work unless there's clear agreement on one character. Usually out of every 5 votes you'd have 4 for the rally target and 1 a troll vote against. Here you've got 2 for Wario, 2 for Wrex and 1 a troll vote for Red and it's just doing nothing but inflate the votals.


Red is almost at 50% anyway
Even if all those votes went for Wrex it still wouldn't be enough

Im really surprised that such a random match got a rally,though
It seems like every match is going to have one now?

Jill>Mega Man here we go
#55 | lightning-02 | Posted 8/30/2013 9:41:59 AM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
lightning-02 posted...
votes getting split, this is why rallies don't work unless there's clear agreement on one character. Usually out of every 5 votes you'd have 4 for the rally target and 1 a troll vote against. Here you've got 2 for Wario, 2 for Wrex and 1 a troll vote for Red and it's just doing nothing but inflate the votals.


Red is almost at 50% anyway
Even if all those votes went for Wrex it still wouldn't be enough

Im really surprised that such a random match got a rally,though
It seems like every match is going to have one now?

Jill>Mega Man here we go


Wario is popular there, Waluigi had the same attempt. Neither were very organised or well done.
#56 | Jakyl25 | Posted 8/30/2013 9:42:47 AM | message detail
(SECOND PLACE) LEAD CHANGE
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#57 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/30/2013 9:43:55 AM | message detail
Lead is almost at 1000
Im wasting my time here,doesn't look Red is going to be in danger
#58 | -hotdogturtle-- | Posted 8/30/2013 9:44:16 AM | message detail
RIP

Gotta finish my speedrun practice so I can rally for Wario next year.
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#59 | NachoSwordsman | Posted 8/30/2013 9:45:21 AM | message detail
So the third spot in the finals is basically going to be L-Block or Samus correct?
Unless Mega Man can beat Charizard
#60 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/30/2013 9:47:13 AM | message detail
Rikku > Zero could happen

Maybe.
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Points: 107/147 Today's Picks: Squall and Cecil
#61 | BK_Sheikah00 (Topic Creator) | Posted 8/30/2013 9:48:51 AM | message detail
Charizard > Red > Samus
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#62 | -hotdogturtle-- | Posted 8/30/2013 9:50:06 AM | message detail
So really "anti-vote Nintendo" is their only reason for boosting Wrex?
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#63 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/30/2013 9:51:31 AM | message detail
Good show, Red. I'm going to pretend he's Crono for a while.

Missingno did really well with the morning, Squall ended up considerably below Sephiroth's percentage while the projection had him above Sephiroth most of the night. But Squall wins. Vivi won't fold after beating Mario, so Red should be able to go through next round.
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#64 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/30/2013 9:52:08 AM | message detail
So really "anti-vote Nintendo" is their only reason for boosting Wrex?

Not really anti-voting, they think Wrex winning would make us whine.
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Points: 107/147 Today's Picks: Squall and Cecil
#65 | ZFS | Posted 8/30/2013 9:52:16 AM | message detail
Pretty impressive from Red, I think. He should get past Squall/Vivi no problem.
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#66 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/30/2013 9:53:14 AM | message detail
Aw, looks like my suspicion of Wrex not doing so hot today comes to fruition, which I hoped wouldn't be the case after Shepard/Aeris no longer looked like anything impressive. Unfortunate.

...but I'm almost as surprised at Red. Failing to double Wario isn't good at all. :/
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#67 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/30/2013 9:54:34 AM | message detail
The Zack Unfair couldn't double Wario either.
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#68 | anondum | Posted 8/30/2013 9:56:43 AM | message detail
man I hope red can beat charizard. I'd rather see red in the finals.

unless squirtle is in the finals, then we can lay to rest the fact that water starters are the best
#69 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/30/2013 9:57:35 AM | message detail
Zack also had to deal with Cecil! More importantly you'd think Wario should be folding to Nintendo hard like he always does. Fox got the doubling!
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#70 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/30/2013 9:58:26 AM | message detail
I still hold out hope that Vivi can pull out a miracle next round, but Red is looking a little too good here.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#71 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/30/2013 9:59:04 AM | message detail
Pokemon's almost independent of Nintendo though. Plus there were some rally attempts that are probably artificially inflating Wario/Wrex still.
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#72 | ZFS | Posted 8/30/2013 9:59:25 AM | message detail
Can't see Red beating actual Pokemon. He's not nearly as popular as they are.
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#73 | GloryChaos | Posted 8/30/2013 9:59:56 AM | message detail | (edited)
anondum posted...
man I hope red can beat charizard. I'd rather see red in the finals.

unless squirtle is in the finals, then we can lay to rest the fact that water starters are the best


Meanwhile grass starter master race (except for chikorita) requires no contest to prove their undisputed position as the best.
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#74 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/30/2013 10:01:06 AM | message detail
Red's path is pretty set in stone anyway due to the last match - skate by the Vivi/Squall split, cost Charizard the match against L/Samus - but I'm just speaking to overall expectations. He certainly doesn't look nearly as impressive as the actual Pokemon.
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#75 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/30/2013 10:01:46 AM | message detail
KH you've just doomed us to Red getting 50%+ on Vivi/Squall.
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#76 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/30/2013 10:01:55 AM | message detail
The intangibles are in Red's favor next round. The Ninty fanbase is going to be out for blood after Mario's loss. And Link's loss too, they're going to be seething with rage. When they see not one but TWO Final Fantasy characters in a poll, they're going to burst into an apoplectic fit. And then they will vote for Red.
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#77 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/30/2013 10:03:38 AM | message detail
Red can overperform due to vacuum theory, but it wouldn't mean that he's suddenly stronger than Mario or anything. His actual results are still set in stone, and I personally am just a little underwhelmed.
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#78 | swordz9 | Posted 8/30/2013 10:03:40 AM | message detail
http://i.imgur.com/qYDdGTv.png
http://i.imgur.com/2Y6AK6E.png

If only R3 was the Sprite Round. They could still get sprites for match pics though I guess.
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#79 | jellsprout | Posted 8/30/2013 10:04:35 AM | message detail
Mewtwo/Squirtle/Charizard finals confirmed.
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#80 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/30/2013 10:04:46 AM | message detail
Yeah, round 3 and beyond is freeform pictures, so you could use sprites if you wanted to.
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#81 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/30/2013 10:05:17 AM | message detail
This result honestly isn't much worse than what I think Squall would do if you put him here, so Red seems like a show-in to win next round.

BUT, who knows. Vivi beat Mario. I think counting him out at this point, however low the odds, wouldn't be wise.
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#82 | ZFS | Posted 8/30/2013 10:05:18 AM | message detail
Yeah, Red should put a good number on the Final Fantasy duo. Think Charizard depends on if Pokemon starts picking up steam, or rallies, or something. Could see him beating Samus even with Red if that happens. Samus seems alright otherwise, but who knows.
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#83 | swordz9 | Posted 8/30/2013 10:06:57 AM | message detail
Now that L Block won do you think we'll see pic sabotage for Samus like we did for Vincent and will be seeing soon for Zelda?
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#84 | HaRRicH | Posted 8/30/2013 10:10:31 AM | message detail | (edited)
Nanis23 posted...
But maybe im talking nonsense so if someone can post a deeper analysys of how Uprising helped Pit (if at all) it can be great


For as good of a game as Kid Icarus: Uprising is, it didn't help him much. No games from 2012 seemed to help any character's strength, barring probably Commander Shepard. Otherwise, no character seemed to get much from last year. It didn't matter if they were contest veterans (Playstation All-Stars, Final Fantasy 13-2, Halo 4, Borderlands 2) or newcomers (BL2 again, Xenoblade, The Walking Dead, Persona Golden + Arena, Dishonored, Far Cry 3, Gravity Rush)...who gained from 2012? Mass Effect 3 is the only possible exception.

Nominations were likely more affected by 2012-releases than their strengths -- it'd explain how so many characters from these games got in or got a higher seed. It might also explain why Chris Redfield and Diablo were snubbed this year...!
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#85 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/30/2013 10:08:09 AM | message detail
Samus/Charizard is probably like 57/43 naturally for Samus. With Red, LFF is going to make it at least 60/40, so Charizard needs one amazing bandwagon/rally to win that.
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#86 | SilverSwift | Posted 8/30/2013 10:09:13 AM | message detail
I'm thinking people could be underestimating the strength of Red (and possibly Blue as well) - I know we have little to go on, but I just have a feeling that they could surprise in later rounds. If nothing else, a sprite round will help them!

Can't believe Vivi, wow. And Squall, good to see him pull it out.
#87 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/30/2013 10:10:02 AM | message detail
So, L-Block is the biggest threat to Samus now. And L > Samus is Charizard's best hope for reaching the final, because L has variable strength and the site might choose Charizard as its champion instead.
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#88 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/30/2013 10:10:30 AM | message detail
I for one can't wait to see 15 year old Other M Samus 'grace' us with her presence

L/Red/Charizard will pretty much be a lock for L. Samus still won't lose even if Pokemon gets bandwagoned, because the bandwagon will be sundered by Red. She needs something... more intrinsic and perhaps diabolical to happen to her.

Her fanbase's fickleness needs to prove true and come to the fore. And then abandon her for some Pokeymanz
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#89 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/30/2013 10:11:31 AM | message detail
Or L-Block could just fold like Missingno did.

Glad THAT glitch got put away, even if it did cost me a bracket point (which I only did because Squall struck me as the worst possible character pre-contest for taking down Missingno).
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#90 | Advokaiser | Posted 8/30/2013 10:11:42 AM | message detail
LordoftheMorons posted...
So I guess Cecil and Pit just suck


This is quite possibly the saddest thing in the whole contest.

Oh, Cecil...

Excuse me, I'll just go cry in a corner.
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#91 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/30/2013 10:12:50 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
I for one can't wait to see 15 year old Other M Samus 'grace' us with her presence


Flashback Samus already lost. Bayonetta and N killed her in Round 1.
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#92 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/30/2013 10:13:22 AM | message detail
I'm trying to think: as a Link fan, who would I want to win between Charizard/Samus/Red/L-Block and go into the final? Assuming the first 2 spots in the final are taken by Draven and Snake, this last semifinal is our only hope. But Samus winning the contest is hollow- because we'd have to stomach Samus beating Link. Hmm....
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#93 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/30/2013 10:14:48 AM | message detail
Better get behind L-Block because as one of only two people (soon to be three) to ever beat Link it'll make Link look good
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#94 | VeryInsane | Posted 8/30/2013 10:14:49 AM | message detail
Holy crap I just realized I was on the expert leaderboard.

A shame I have Wrex > Red. @_@
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#95 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/30/2013 10:16:04 AM | message detail
And Red gets to the doubling at last.
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#96 | Advokaiser | Posted 8/30/2013 10:17:13 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Better get behind L-Block because as one of only two people (soon to be three) to ever beat Link it'll make Link look good


Two? There was someone who beat Link other than L-Block?
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#97 | swordz9 | Posted 8/30/2013 10:17:27 AM | message detail
Red & Blue are hard to gauge, but I think they're relatively strong and perform better when up against certain things. It helps both are pretty easy to rally too if they need it.
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#98 | xp1337 | Posted 8/30/2013 10:17:55 AM | message detail
Advokaiser posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Better get behind L-Block because as one of only two people (soon to be three) to ever beat Link it'll make Link look good


Two? There was someone who beat Link other than L-Block?

Cloud
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#99 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/30/2013 10:18:27 AM | message detail
Today or tomorrow is the 10th anniversary! The most important match in contest history.
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#100 | pjbasis | Posted 8/30/2013 10:19:53 AM | message detail
At least he beat Wario
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