Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1138

#401 | ghostofkraken | Posted 8/30/2013 2:52:32 AM | message detail
Woo. I voted for Missingno just because he looks like that thing from one of the segments in V/H/S.
#402 | Janus5000 | Posted 8/30/2013 2:53:19 AM | message detail
Squall is consistently getting 15-20 vote gains when updates are pulling in ~120 votes.

The TDZ is something to behold.
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#403 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/30/2013 2:55:31 AM | message detail
Just now got home, haven't read any of the topics. I've only looked at the updater.

Even if Vivi being there essentially dooms Squall next round, I will be pretty darn proud of his showing in this contest if all he can do is beat Missingno here after how far down he started.

Squall having perhaps THE best night vote of anyone in the contest made the difference here, without question.
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#404 | shane15 | Posted 8/30/2013 3:14:28 AM | message detail
So has Squall got any chance next round? For some reason i'm thinking him getting Wario is the only way for him to sneak by.
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#405 | lightning-02 | Posted 8/30/2013 3:17:38 AM | message detail
For those asking /v/ won't support Missingno in numbers and /vp/ is an awful place to rally, they just don't care. Reddit is the only place that would bother with a glitch.

I don't know if anything would happen for Vivi next, /v/ understands the contest history and what it means on this site for a less popular character to take down a NIntendo icon and one of the most popular characters in it. The appeal isn't there for Squall or glorified Ash Ketchum. It would be for someone like Cloud, Sephiroth, Link or a Reddit backed Draven but those are the only situations I see involvement in again. L-Block against dual hentai material would be impossible.
#406 | CP724 | Posted 8/30/2013 3:20:27 AM | message detail
L-Block against dual hentai material would be impossible.

lol
#407 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/30/2013 3:24:22 AM | message detail
Also it's even sweeter seeing Squall win after everyone went even more turncoat against him than usual for Vivi's sake!

(Of course, Missingno still has plenty of time to pull off shenanigans, so I'm not saying it's over QUITE yet, but still, feels good so far)

shane15 posted...
So has Squall got any chance next round? For some reason i'm thinking him getting Wario is the only way for him to sneak by.


He could do it with Wrex there. If Wario's strong enough to win that match despite Red (spoilers he isn't), he's strong enough to take advantage of Squall and Vivi LFFing each other.

Fully expect the match to be eerily similar to G&W/Drake/Blue.
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#408 | shane15 | Posted 8/30/2013 3:25:43 AM | message detail
Vivi was just in the right division at the right time.Nobody will get a crap about him next round.
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#409 | Fr0zoN | Posted 8/30/2013 3:27:36 AM | message detail
Guys I need help with Zero vs Cube vs Rikku. I have no idea what to do in the expert. I had Zero > Rikku > Cube but now I have no idea. Cube could get rallied but then again Rikku is probably more likely to get a rally at this point =/ Any ideas?
#410 | vcharon | Posted 8/30/2013 3:28:53 AM | message detail
Squall's best chance next round, if he wins this one, is Wrex being there. If Wrex can somehow take advantage of the Nintendo split and beat Red, then Squall can probably still win if Vivi isn't rallied again. Unfortunately, this is looking like Pokemon's contest and I think Red will still beat Wrex and if he does, probably wins the division sadly.
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#411 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/30/2013 3:37:25 AM | message detail
By the way, it's very fitting that Squall just does not tolerate jokes...!
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#412 | lightning-02 | Posted 8/30/2013 3:39:09 AM | message detail
Fr0zoN posted...
Guys I need help with Zero vs Cube vs Rikku. I have no idea what to do in the expert. I had Zero > Rikku > Cube but now I have no idea. Cube could get rallied but then again Rikku is probably more likely to get a rally at this point =/ Any ideas?


I doubt anyone gets rallied, portal hasn't been funny in years. Zero > RIkku is the expected and Rikku > Zero is a reasonable upset pick. Don't go near the cube.
#413 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/30/2013 3:45:20 AM | message detail
Question
Isn't TDZ supposed to be "The Dead Zone"? meaning the time US and Canada are sleeping?
Is it called " Total Domination Zone" because of how strong Squall night vote is?
#414 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/30/2013 3:47:38 AM | message detail
It's technically "The Dead Zone," but "Total Domination Zone" also works.
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#415 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/30/2013 3:49:40 AM | message detail
Woo, Vivi pulled off the upset!
Boo, Squall's pulling off the upset!
Woo, if Wrex beats Red then he might make the semi-finals!
Boo, Red's probably going to beat Wrex and coast to the semi-finals.
Woo, if Charizard and Red are there, then Samus or L-Block will be making the finals!
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#416 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/30/2013 3:50:24 AM | message detail
Draven/L-Block/Snake would be a pretty bizarre final to see.

Snake could take advantage of rally splitting and win via Rally LFF...!
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#417 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/30/2013 3:51:54 AM | message detail
Draven/L-Block/Snake is pretty much reddit / /v/ / GameFAQs
#418 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/30/2013 3:53:15 AM | message detail
You're forgetting the golden rule, though: Snake Never Wins Contests.

Snake is now impressive as s*** and pulls off some amazing performances, but circumstances will never allow him to win a contest. He's doomed to just pulling off fantastic upsets and humiliating the rest of the charred remnants of the Noble Nine.

You know, until he loses to Kefka next round!
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#419 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/30/2013 3:55:46 AM | message detail
Trend chart from the day match:

Time | Mario | Vivi | Ganon | Votes
0:05 | 43.44% | 40.72% | 15.84% | 587
1:00 | 41.20% | 41.59% | 17.21% | 5537
2:00 | 40.45% | 41.29% | 18.26% | 4376
3:00 | 41.72% | 40.12% | 18.15% | 3746
4:00 | 41.08% | 41.90% | 17.02% | 3625
5:00 | 41.81% | 40.44% | 17.76% | 3430
6:00 | 39.21% | 42.35% | 18.43% | 3537
7:00 | 40.15% | 42.05% | 17.80% | 3432
8:00 | 41.53% | 41.13% | 17.34% | 2728
9:00 | 41.35% | 42.10% | 16.54% | 2539
10:00 | 40.32% | 39.81% | 19.86% | 2356
11:00 | 43.25% | 39.07% | 17.68% | 2178
12:00 | 42.07% | 42.52% | 15.41% | 2453

Pretty rare match when you have all three characters having their best hour in the last three hours of the match (Ganon's especially, what the heck is up with that)!

X-Stats:

Vivi Ornitier – 50.00%
Mario – 49.89%
Ganondorf – 29.94%
Adam Jensen – 27.74%
Duke Nukem – 22.40%
Marisa Kirasame – 18.32%
Fawful – 13.00%
Guybrush Threepwood – 12.99%
Max Payne – 12.25%

Vivi's prediction percentage was 4.61%
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#420 | armitage999 | Posted 8/30/2013 4:02:00 AM | message detail
Man, at this point I can't be all that surprised Mario got beat. Rally or not, he seemed vulnerable for an upset loss to me. Likely due to Nintendo seemingly struggling and all that stuff.
#421 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/30/2013 4:04:02 AM | message detail
Current X-Stats:

Squall Leonhart – 50.00%
Missingno – 48.10%
Tidus – 48.05%
Amaterasu – 38.45%
Banjo – 30.58%
Rayman – 28.47%
Vyse – 18.12%
Adol Christin – 12.22%
Commander Video – 10.77%
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#422 | mikisho | Posted 8/30/2013 4:05:49 AM | message detail | (edited)
I never understood how to read X-Stats... Like, what are the percentages of? what does squall have 50% of?
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#423 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/30/2013 4:05:35 AM | message detail
Hey, Adam Jensen turned out to look decent after all.

And now we know Guybrush could hang with a SFFed Fawful! That's a huge step up for the guy!
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#424 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/30/2013 4:08:10 AM | message detail
mikisho posted...
I never understood how to read X-Stats... Like, what are the percentages of? what does squall have 50% of?


It's the percentage the characters would be expected to score against the character at the top.
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#425 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/30/2013 4:08:28 AM | message detail
mikisho posted...
I never understood how to read X-Stats... Like, what are the percentages of? what does squal have 50% of?


They're the percentages that character gets on the top guy. The assumption is Squall would get 50% on himself, Tidus would get 48.05% on Squall based on his performance against Missingno, and so on. The first post shows how to get x-stats.

That said, they're generally sketchy, especially when SFF is involved. This contest's in particular are going to be a complete joke, which granted is half the fun of them. Like this year, we might see a dozen characters or so higher than Link!
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#426 | mikisho | Posted 8/30/2013 4:09:12 AM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
mikisho posted...
I never understood how to read X-Stats... Like, what are the percentages of? what does squall have 50% of?


It's the percentage the characters would be expected to score against the character at the top.


O_O suddenly it all makes perfect sense! Thank you good sir.
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#427 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/30/2013 4:09:25 AM | message detail
Though if we put, say, Link vs Link and just had the match pic two of the same Link except mirroring each other, I'd bet left-handed Link would double right-handed Link.
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#428 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/30/2013 4:09:32 AM | message detail
If Tidus was here,could Ammaterasu win?
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#429 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/30/2013 4:10:16 AM | message detail
Also it's kind of funny that we're transitioning into the morning vote and the character who seems to be benefiting from it is...Amaterasu, not Missingno.

And yeah, X-Stats this year will be pretty much worthless.

I mean, I will make some very rough attempts at adjustments just for fun, but yeah, they won't mean anything.

And really, if rallying becomes a thing of the future for these contests, stats won't really matter that much anyway.
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#430 | mikisho | Posted 8/30/2013 4:11:18 AM | message detail
Yeah. You'd basically just have to guess who's going to be the most rally-able.
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#431 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/30/2013 4:11:27 AM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
If Tidus was here,could Ammaterasu win?


She'd have a pretty good chance. She's already at 38.5% on Squall.

Squall would obliterate Tidus with SFF though. We already saw him hit 72% on him back in 2006.

It'd be close.
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#432 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/30/2013 4:12:38 AM | message detail
Funniest x-stat so far is Missile>Magus
There is also what the hell Draven did to his division with Chie being 3rd strongest but it doesn't count
#433 | ZFS | Posted 8/30/2013 4:13:56 AM | message detail
Seems like an easy setup for Red here.
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#434 | lightning-02 | Posted 8/30/2013 4:15:30 AM | message detail
rallying has always been around it's more the 12 hour matches and low votals that are amplifying them to the point of major significance. Draven is an isolated case with entirely identifiable rallied votes coming from a specific place, from people who clearly don't care about the contest or future matches because their votes don't spill over at all. It would be irresponsible of Allen to not change the rules to prevent direct linking like that.
#435 | mikisho | Posted 8/30/2013 4:16:14 AM | message detail
I still haven't given up on Link personally xD. I mean, I understand that Draven's rally has given him insane X-Stats, but there's no guarantee it would work like that against Link, assuming it's a proper rally. Because all Rallies do is bring increased traffic to Game Faqs, and Link has a pretty large fan base. Just because the Draven Rally could bring in that many people to the site, does not guarantee EVERYONE he brings in will vote for Draven. I mean, look at the vote totals for Drave/X/Ryu, X and Ryu also benefited from that rally and BOTH had fairly high vote totals.

But that's just my newby opinion >_>
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#436 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/30/2013 4:16:52 AM | message detail
So, it turns out The Show wasn't being completely sarcastic when they talked about contest legend Adam Jensen.
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#437 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/30/2013 4:16:54 AM | message detail
Unless Wrex takes this!

Seriously, we could've had Vivi/Squall/Cecil here. The anti-FF whining would've been amazing.
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#438 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/30/2013 4:18:34 AM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
Unless Wrex takes this!

Seriously, we could've had Vivi/Squall/Cecil here. The anti-FF whining would've been amazing.


Watching Squall lay a beatdown on Vivi while Vivi laid a beatdown on Cecil would've been pretty awesome
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#439 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/30/2013 4:18:39 AM | message detail
_SecretSquirrel posted...
So, it turns out The Show wasn't being completely sarcastic when they talked about contest legend Adam Jensen.


Adam Jensen did put up an impressive performance on Vivi, who's clearly equal to Mario at this point! Also keep in mind there was no LFF between Mario and Ganondorf, and if anything Mario's boosted a good bit thanks to the 2DS announcement!
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#440 | armitage999 | Posted 8/30/2013 4:31:38 AM | message detail
If only FFIV characters didn't stink in these things. That sucks.
#441 | mikisho | Posted 8/30/2013 4:37:11 AM | message detail
jeeze, it's almost awe inspiring to see Squall's night vote xD The dude is a freaking machine.
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#442 | armitage999 | Posted 8/30/2013 4:39:06 AM | message detail
Would there even be a FFIV character that could potentially do something in these contests? Golbez, perhaps?
#443 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/30/2013 4:39:24 AM | message detail
armitage999 posted...
If only FFIV characters didn't stink in these things. That sucks.


That's the thing, Rydia and Cecil actually did pretty damn well (and Cecil impressed in 2010 against Knuckles) this year. They just both got stuck with opponents just out of their reach, but even still pulled impressive performances.

Cecil may actually look better than he would've winning that match if Wrex manages to beat Red!
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#444 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/30/2013 4:57:01 AM | message detail
I could see Kain pulling an upset in a good position.
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#445 | armitage999 | Posted 8/30/2013 5:10:46 AM | message detail
_SecretSquirrel posted...
I could see Kain pulling an upset in a good position.


True. Edge might have as well if FFIV:The After Years wasn't poorly thought of.
#446 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/30/2013 5:52:03 AM | message detail
ZFS posted...
Seems like an easy setup for Red here.


I know. It sucks, because I had Charizard reaching the finals and now he's going to run into SFF. Guess I need Wrex to win!
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#447 | Scarlettail | Posted 8/30/2013 5:54:29 AM | message detail
I see Missingo is getting thrashed, but that's all right. Red's got this.
#448 | XIII_rocks | Posted 8/30/2013 5:54:58 AM | message detail
Wrex is going to outdo Vivi and become the true cindarella story of this contest.
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#449 | ExThaNemesis | Posted 8/30/2013 6:13:22 AM | message detail
What the f*** happened here yesterday?!
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#450 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/30/2013 6:18:13 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Incidentally it's probably for the best that Mario didn't move on. Charizard would have just Slash'd him into itty-bitty plumber pieces with Samus in the poll.


*sobbing*

Now I just have to hope that Charizard can still Slash Samus into itty-bitty bounty hunter pieces with Red in the poll. Or that Red comes up short, either against Wrex today or against one of the FF duo next round.
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