Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1138

#251 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/29/2013 11:18:38 PM | message detail
The next bonus poll will be on a weekend, so there shouldn't be any ASV trends on that day. I don't think it will hurt Crono at all.
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#252 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/29/2013 11:20:36 PM | message detail
It's not the ASV that hurts, it's the day itself. But yeah, it won't be anything massive. Probably not more than 1%.
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#253 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/29/2013 11:20:41 PM | message detail
Mario losing is too funny, and I have no idea why.
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#254 | Janus5000 | Posted 8/29/2013 11:21:29 PM | message detail
as a cute bit of perspective: Missingno's lead on Sephiroth peaked at this point.
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#255 | Lopen | Posted 8/29/2013 11:22:06 PM | message detail
Wasn't Seph vs Missingno a day match? Why do people keep comparing to that?
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#256 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/29/2013 11:22:19 PM | message detail
That was a night match.
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#257 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/29/2013 11:23:13 PM | message detail
Crono had the day match. Sephiroth had the night match.
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#258 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/29/2013 11:24:37 PM | message detail
And Crono wins a night match, by more than Sephiroth did. WHY BACON WHY MUST YOU KEEP GIVING CRONO DAY MATCHES?

Give them to Master Chief and Sora.
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#259 | pjbasis | Posted 8/29/2013 11:26:24 PM | message detail
ugh missingno just give up already
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#260 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/29/2013 11:29:39 PM | message detail
Lots of artificial stalling right now as it looks like Squall is still *just* on the precipice of shooting through and putting the glitch down. Even Ammy's percentage rise to heaven has stalled out. Not sure how much longer they can keep it up.
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#261 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/29/2013 11:30:17 PM | message detail
Sometimes it can take forever to reach the Total Domination Zone. Remember Samus doggedly going 50/50 with Cloud for 3 hours? Zack didn't start cutting Mario until 4.

Squall did really well tonight with the 12:30 to 2:00 block, and it's not unexpected that Missingno could stall here. Just variance. Squall has a shot at a 60% hour on Missingno from 5 to 6 though. Vincent put up near 59% on Crono that hour, twice.
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#262 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/29/2013 11:32:37 PM | message detail
Toldja guys. This one was really obvious. Squall needs to absolutely bury M' to take this, he has to unleash the 30 vote cuts or it won't be enough to prevent bounceback.
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#263 | Janus5000 | Posted 8/29/2013 11:32:43 PM | message detail
squall what are you doing
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#264 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/29/2013 11:34:16 PM | message detail
Projection update: Based on Sephiroth/Missingno, Squall wins with 53.82%.

Despite the stall, Squall has gotten even further ahead of Sephiroth's trendline.

Estimated rally votes needed: 1700
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#265 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/29/2013 11:37:20 PM | message detail
Hold on yeah I remember Mario almost losing to Zack.

I guess it was just a matter of time before he'd actually flop like this to an FF fan-favorite.
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#266 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/29/2013 11:37:53 PM | message detail
Speaking of the big cuts, more of those please!
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#267 | Janus5000 | Posted 8/29/2013 11:38:03 PM | message detail
Squall beating Missingno by more than Sephiroth would be sort of beautiful
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#268 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/29/2013 11:38:07 PM | message detail
I'd like to take this time to remind everyone that HALF the night vote is done. We've already received more than half of the total votes through 8 AM!
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#269 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/29/2013 11:38:22 PM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Speaking of the big cuts, more of those please!


Are you seriously on Squall's side here?
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#270 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/29/2013 11:39:14 PM | message detail
...are you seriously characterizing the Power Hour as part of the night vote
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#271 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/29/2013 11:39:53 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Speaking of the big cuts, more of those please!


Are you seriously on Squall's side here?


...Dude. Why wouldn't I be? I've always been on Squall's side. Not just in contests, either. Why am I supposed to switch my allegiances just when he needs his fans the most?
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#272 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/29/2013 11:40:01 PM | message detail
...are you seriously characterizing the Power Hour as part of the night vote

Yes I am this thought gave me so much comfort during MM/FFX.
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#273 | Kyle Bowen | Posted 8/29/2013 11:45:07 PM | message detail
Let's go Squall!!!!

It's silly how Squall being in an internet poll keeps me up at night.
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#274 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/29/2013 11:47:09 PM | message detail
Missingno by the Hour:

1:00 | 52.76%
2:00 | 46.23%

Wow, that's an incredible dropoff from the 1st to the 2nd hour. Don't think I've seen its like before, except for L-Block.
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#275 | pjbasis | Posted 8/29/2013 11:47:22 PM | message detail
#276 | pjbasis | Posted 8/29/2013 11:47:52 PM | message detail
Kyle Bowen posted...
Let's go Squall!!!!

It's silly how Squall being in an internet poll keeps me up at night.


heh yes
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#277 | Qwaar | Posted 8/29/2013 11:47:56 PM | message detail
So, Squall to take the lead in the next update and never look back?
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#278 | creativename | Posted 8/29/2013 11:48:09 PM | message detail
I'm really wondering about Mario now. I wouldn't have thought it possible for him to have a worse performance than Crono, but...this was pretty bad.

I mean not only is Vivi not as strong as Pikachu, but Ganon isn't even from the same franchise as Mario.

Also Ganon got crushed by SFF pretty bad too. He got 5 points more than Magus, but the overlap between Mario/Ganon should be miles below that for Crono/Magus.

Mario's one saving grace is that his match was actually close while Crono got handled.

Still...losing to Vivi, even in that LFF position, is a pretty awful result for Mario. I mean I love Vivi but he's no contest stalwart.

There's a reason absolutely nobody was even considering this. Most Oracle predictions had Mario almost doubling Vivi! People had Mario around 50 or low 50's and Vivi in the high 20's. Mario really did lay a turd here.

red sox 777 posted...
...are you seriously characterizing the Power Hour as part of the night vote

Yes I am this thought gave me so much comfort during MM/FFX.

Why?
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#279 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/29/2013 11:48:12 PM | message detail
8 vote difference. Spike in 3...2...1...
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#280 | ShatteredElysium | Posted 8/29/2013 11:48:36 PM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
Hold on yeah I remember Mario almost losing to Zack.

I guess it was just a matter of time before he'd actually flop like this to an FF fan-favorite.


Yeah but to put it into perspective. Zelda 60/40'ed Vivi 1 on 1. Kirby beat him 57/43 too. That gap between Vivi and Mario was astronomical. It's not like he was toppled by a FF near-elite.

Squall would have been the one in Mario's part of the draw that you thought had a chance, not Vivi!
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#281 | Kotetsu534 | Posted 8/29/2013 11:49:02 PM | message detail
Missingno probably had an inflated first hour thanks to the heavy rallying for Mario at the end of the last match. His first hour was actually pretty bad after the first 30 minutes considering it's Pokemon vs. Square.
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#282 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/29/2013 11:49:31 PM | message detail
Missingno will likely fight a bit over the lead rather than relinquish it quietly. But while it'll probably whine and scream its little glitchy heart out, this looks done barring something unseemly.
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#283 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/29/2013 11:50:44 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Missingno will likely fight a bit over the lead rather than relinquish it quietly. But while it'll probably whine and scream its little glitchy heart out, this looks done barring something unseemly.


*Looks at Luster*

So...about that...
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#284 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/29/2013 11:51:42 PM | message detail
Why?

Well, it shouldn't give any real comfort, because you just know FFX is going to run up the percentages massively in the late night, but it's still oddly comforting knowing that there just aren't that many votes total in your opponent's power time. That match still had an ASV, so it was even more stark- something like 2/3 of night vote had passed by around 3 AM.
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#285 | creativename | Posted 8/29/2013 11:52:18 PM | message detail
Oh and on Squall in the finals - if Samus can survive L-Block (which is definitely not a guarantee, Tifa is a *terrible* 3rd wheel for Samus there) then Squall does indeed have a decent shot at making the finals.

At which point he'd face off with Snake...again. I'm almost thinking this will happen just because another Snake/Squall meeting would be a good joke by the fates.
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#286 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/29/2013 11:52:20 PM | message detail
"lol"
#287 | pjbasis | Posted 8/29/2013 11:53:18 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
At which point he'd face off with Snake...again. I'm almost thinking this will happen just because another Snake/Squall meeting would be a good joke by the fates.


Unless Snake loses!
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#288 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/29/2013 11:53:20 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
Oh and on Squall in the finals - if Samus can survive L-Block (which is definitely not a guarantee, Tifa is a *terrible* 3rd wheel for Samus there) then Squall does indeed have a decent shot at making the finals.

At which point he'd face off with Snake...again. I'm almost thinking this will happen just because another Snake/Squall meeting would be a good joke by the fates.


Obviously after upsetting Pokemon three times in a row and defeating a Noble Niner Squall ends up bandwagoned so hard he doesn't challenge Snake, but Draven. A fitting reward for the lion if he gets that far!
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#289 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/29/2013 11:53:43 PM | message detail
People were adamant that Mario was too strong to fall to either Charizard or Squall by way of leeching. Vivi showed us that not only would he have lost those two matches beyond a reasonable doubt, but he would have probably gotten his ass blown the f*** out. Remarkable.
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#290 | pjbasis | Posted 8/29/2013 11:57:34 PM | message detail
#291 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/29/2013 11:58:18 PM | message detail
Slowest ascent to the lead ever...Missingno is one tough cookie, isn't he?
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#292 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/29/2013 11:59:38 PM | message detail
Squall should take the lead about an hour earlier than Sephiroth did against Missingno. Missingno managed to stay ahead of Sephiroth until the TDZ started.
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#293 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/30/2013 12:00:09 AM | message detail
People were adamant that Mario was too strong to fall to either Charizard or Squall by way of leeching. Vivi showed us that not only would he have lost those two matches beyond a reasonable doubt, but he would have probably gotten his ass blown the f*** out. Remarkable.

The idea that Mario was out of range in either of those matches was flat out silly. Especially the Charizard one. At least with Squall, you could argue the Nintendo/Pokemon overlap is small. But with Charizard, you have an opponent which already scored 46.3% on Mario, now facing him with Samus in the poll.
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#294 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/30/2013 12:01:58 AM | message detail | (edited)
Is it wrong that I can't really find this match that entertaining because I'm so stoked for a possible Mario/Crono VI of all things?
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#295 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/30/2013 12:02:17 AM | message detail
In before Bacon runs an entirely different bonus poll
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#296 | raytan7585 | Posted 8/30/2013 12:02:54 AM | message detail
Missingno's defending the lead....will not last...
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#297 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/30/2013 12:02:57 AM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Is it wrong that I can't really find this match that entertaining because I'm so stoked for a possible Mario/Crono VII of all things?


Not really. But honestly, everything except MM's match up until the Round 2 divisional finals is a huge thrillride - if Squall clutches it out now, we might see lunacy from Wrex, then a chaotic split between Charizard, Zelda and DK, and then, well...Judgement Day. Plus possibly Mario/Crono. It's all good stuff.
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#298 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/30/2013 12:05:08 AM | message detail
Cool, Missingno managed to stay in the lead at the start of this hour, though I expect Squall to have the lead within the next 3 updates. It's not going to hold on much longer than that.
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#299 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/30/2013 12:05:29 AM | message detail
The current all-time Mario/Crono total vote tally:

Mario 246943 49.45%
Crono 252480 50.55%

Total Votes 499423
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#300 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/30/2013 12:06:24 AM | message detail
Does that account for Crono's 4000 stuffed votes in 2002 or only the 500 removed ones? Interesting stats regardless though.
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