Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1138

#101 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/29/2013 9:32:58 PM | message detail
Yup, this looks like a battle of pure natural strength vs. rallying
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#102 | Masato_Tanaka | Posted 8/29/2013 9:33:17 PM | message detail
#103 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/29/2013 9:33:22 PM | message detail
Oh, Squall's dead if Missingno's gonna catch rallies/stuffing to the tune of that.

Good news for Vivi!
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#104 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/29/2013 9:33:38 PM | message detail
BK_Sheikah00 posted...
Missingno peaked three hours in with a 399 lead. Squall should do much better than Tidus overnight. So Missingno has to build and go way beyond that in the first three hours this time around, right?


Knowing that Squall has a stronger night vote than Tidus, I would have to say Missingno needs at least a 600 vote lead to survive Squall's night vote.
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#105 | pjbasis | Posted 8/29/2013 9:33:55 PM | message detail
#106 | backinblack167 | Posted 8/29/2013 9:34:10 PM | message detail
Sky Attack
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#107 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/29/2013 9:34:18 PM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Missingno spikes hard. DEFINITELY a rally there.


To be fair, Squall did drop off on those last 2 updates as well.
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#108 | swordz9 | Posted 8/29/2013 9:34:39 PM | message detail
It's amazing how 4chan can do a rally that makes me like them and then follow it up with one that makes me not. Hopefully Squall will still win this.
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#109 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/29/2013 9:34:41 PM | message detail
FF8 has a horrendous early vote, so Missingno is actually going to need a pretty big lead to win this.
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#110 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/29/2013 9:37:27 PM | message detail
Ammy almost cut there
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#111 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/29/2013 9:38:15 PM | message detail | (edited)
Ammy refusing to look terrible
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#112 | Brasen | Posted 8/29/2013 9:38:21 PM | message detail
pokemon is famous for stalling to the win though so it can be a tough fight for squall still unless missingno is an exception
#113 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/29/2013 9:39:43 PM | message detail
Ammy may cost Squall the win here (among many other factors). She's taking up a *lot* of percentage, relatively.
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#114 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/29/2013 9:40:14 PM | message detail
Mizno gave Sephiroth some trouble during this time too. Seph cut on update 3 but Missingno's lead wasn't even half finished building yet.

Based on Sephiroth/Missingno, Squall wins with 51.07%. That's about 500 votes.
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#115 | pjbasis | Posted 8/29/2013 9:40:43 PM | message detail
keep the hope alive red sox
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#116 | Dabrikishaw15 | Posted 8/29/2013 9:40:46 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
Yup, this looks like a battle of pure natural strength vs. rallying

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#117 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/29/2013 9:41:26 PM | message detail
Oh, I'm rooting for Missingno. To make Crono look as good as possible.
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#118 | mikisho | Posted 8/29/2013 9:42:07 PM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
Mizno gave Sephiroth some trouble during this time too. Seph cut on update 3 but Missingno's lead wasn't even half finished building yet.

Based on Sephiroth/Missingno, Squall wins with 51.07%. That's about 500 votes.


But you can't really use 1v1 data to determine a three-way. Amaterasu changes the match completely.
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#119 | CP724 | Posted 8/29/2013 9:42:13 PM | message detail
this match is gonna depend entirely on how many hours of the match rallys are going to be up, if its the majority of them missgnno will probably win.
#120 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/29/2013 9:42:44 PM | message detail
Holy slowdowns, Batman! Going from a 60 vote gain to 30 to 1...clearly Squally is due for a 30 vote cut next update!
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#121 | spooky96 | Posted 8/29/2013 9:43:13 PM | message detail
not good for Missingno there.
#122 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/29/2013 9:44:49 PM | message detail | (edited)
Incidentally, Squall is now flat-out obliterating Missingno in Europe. The only hitch is that M' has like 10% on him in NA.
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#123 | ZinsanityCraze | Posted 8/29/2013 9:43:42 PM | message detail
That emo Squall is totally due for a cut.
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#124 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/29/2013 9:44:32 PM | message detail
But you can't really use 1v1 data to determine a three-way. Amaterasu changes the match completely.

The other characters have remarkably little impact on the trends. Tonight, one might expect Squall to fall a little below the trendline as the match goes on due to early Missingno voters having almost no overlap with Ammy.
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#125 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 8/29/2013 9:45:05 PM | message detail
Squall is really lucky this is a night match or he'd be dead already.
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#126 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/29/2013 9:45:41 PM | message detail
It seriously just hit me, Mario just lost in Round 2. What the f***.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#127 | mikisho | Posted 8/29/2013 9:47:33 PM | message detail
Squall with a 6 vote cut :P
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#128 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/29/2013 9:47:58 PM | message detail
And a cut. One's an accident, two's coincidence...so let's aim for three. Time to junction Ultima to Strength and start slicing!
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#129 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/29/2013 9:48:22 PM | message detail
Projection based on Sephiroth/Missingno: Squall wins with 51.51%.

Back where it was half an hour ago. Basically, Missingno needs to rally to win.
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#130 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/29/2013 9:48:24 PM | message detail
Apparently this Missingno is glitched into a Ditto. It copies its opponent's contest power
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#131 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/29/2013 9:48:41 PM | message detail
Ammy continues to gobble up percentage. Squall's pristine night vote or Missingno's theoretically inflexible percentage - something's going to have to give soon.
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#132 | XIII_rocks | Posted 8/29/2013 9:49:02 PM | message detail
ZinsanityCraze posted...
That emo Squall is totally due for a cut.


Yes can we please make this a thing
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#133 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/29/2013 9:49:48 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Ammy continues to gobble up percentage. Squall's pristine night vote or Missingno's theoretically inflexible percentage - something's going to have to give soon.


So far, Missingno is the one who's been dipping. If this continues, we could see Squall pull through and make it.
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#134 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/29/2013 9:51:45 PM | message detail
Amaterasu will stay the same while Missingno and Squall switch percentages!
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#135 | mikisho | Posted 8/29/2013 9:52:36 PM | message detail
Squall with a 4 vote cut. Squall slowly making his advance.
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#136 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/29/2013 9:52:41 PM | message detail
Two. One more, and it's on.
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#137 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/29/2013 9:53:33 PM | message detail
mikisho posted...
Squall with a 4 vote cut. Squall slowly making his advance.


Four? Try fourteen. That was a big cut considering the state of the lead.
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#138 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/29/2013 9:53:59 PM | message detail
If Squall can swing this, that almost certainly means Red in the semifinals. Which almost assuredly means Samus in the finals if she can hold off Block. How many people have that pick?
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#139 | pjbasis | Posted 8/29/2013 9:54:36 PM | message detail
Bring him under 40
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#140 | Big Bob | Posted 8/29/2013 9:54:57 PM | message detail
I'm half expecting Donkey Kong to beat Charizard and further confuse people.
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#141 | mikisho | Posted 8/29/2013 9:56:28 PM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
mikisho posted...
Squall with a 4 vote cut. Squall slowly making his advance.


Four? Try fourteen. That was a big cut considering the state of the lead.


14? From what I saw Squall went from 271 behind, to 267 behind. That would be a 4 vote cut. Unless I'm wrong about the 271 O_o
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#142 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/29/2013 9:57:31 PM | message detail
It's a trend. GO SQUALL GO!!
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#143 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/29/2013 9:58:02 PM | message detail
mikisho posted...
KanzarisKelshen posted...
mikisho posted...
Squall with a 4 vote cut. Squall slowly making his advance.


Four? Try fourteen. That was a big cut considering the state of the lead.


14? From what I saw Squall went from 271 behind, to 267 behind. That would be a 4 vote cut. Unless I'm wrong about the 271 O_o


No, you're just wrong about the number he pushed the lead down to. It was at 257, not 267.
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#144 | DreamwaIker | Posted 8/29/2013 10:00:05 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Hilariously and perversely, though, Pokemon fans have every incentive to vote Squall while FF fans have the same incentive to vote Missingno. This match probably decides the division.

That is quite hilarious. And that needs to be part of this round's future analysis on the wiki.
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#145 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/29/2013 10:02:57 PM | message detail
DreamwaIker posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Hilariously and perversely, though, Pokemon fans have every incentive to vote Squall while FF fans have the same incentive to vote Missingno. This match probably decides the division.

That is quite hilarious. And that needs to be part of this round's future analysis on the wiki.


god damn it Kanz, this contest would've been awesome
#146 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/29/2013 10:03:56 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
DreamwaIker posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Hilariously and perversely, though, Pokemon fans have every incentive to vote Squall while FF fans have the same incentive to vote Missingno. This match probably decides the division.

That is quite hilarious. And that needs to be part of this round's future analysis on the wiki.


god damn it Kanz, this contest would've been awesome


This. This, this, and so much this.
#147 | jacko_vdz | Posted 8/29/2013 10:06:06 PM | message detail
I'm happy to see Squall take this if it means Red wins the division!
#148 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/29/2013 10:07:04 PM | message detail
Incidentally it's probably for the best that Mario didn't move on. Charizard would have just Slash'd him into itty-bitty plumber pieces with Samus in the poll.
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#149 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/29/2013 10:07:18 PM | message detail
jacko_vdz posted...
I'm happy to see Squall take this if it means Red wins the division!


Watch Squall win while Wrex abuses the Wario/Red split to bull through. I wouldn't be surprised!
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#150 | raytan7585 | Posted 8/29/2013 10:07:53 PM | message detail
Big cut for Squall!
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