Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1138

#451 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/30/2013 6:22:01 AM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
You're forgetting the golden rule, though: Snake Never Wins Contests.

Snake is now impressive as s*** and pulls off some amazing performances, but circumstances will never allow him to win a contest. He's doomed to just pulling off fantastic upsets and humiliating the rest of the charred remnants of the Noble Nine.

You know, until he loses to Kefka next round!


Don't joke. Snake's going to do the best of the Noble Nine, making the finals before finally losing to the unstoppable force in Division 1. (Not sure if I'm referring to Link or Draven there, but either way). And then I'm going to be the Guru champion, and Bacon will troll all of you by not having any other contests before CBX.
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#452 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/30/2013 6:26:56 AM | message detail
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
Don't joke. Snake's going to do the best of the Noble Nine, making the finals before finally losing to the unstoppable force in Division 1. (Not sure if I'm referring to Link or Draven there, but either way). And then I'm going to be the Guru champion, and Bacon will troll all of you by not having any other contests before CBX.


you mean the unstoppable force of Division 2, Mewtwo :P
#453 | -hotdogturtle-- | Posted 8/30/2013 6:30:02 AM | message detail
Now that I took a gamble and failed, the next expected result is Red > Wrex > Wario right?
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#454 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/30/2013 6:53:20 AM | message detail
Match CV: (16) Wario vs. (4) Pokemon Trainer Red vs. (12) Urdnot Wrex

Previous Round

Wario – 49.66%
Creeper – 28.80%
The King of All Cosmos – 21.54%

Pokemon Trainer Red – 70.78%
Corvo Attano – 19.49%
Sissel – 9.74%

Urdnot Wrex – 37.37%
Cecil Harvey – 33.72%
Pit – 28.91%

Analysis

I was so confident that my Cecil upset would have happen last round then Wrex came and ruined it. I also had Cecil winning this match and while Wrex won I no longer have any faith for the upset. Characters related to Red in 2010 have looked better which means Red is stronger than what I thought, plus there is the whole potential Pokemon boost. The ceiling for Wrex is also a lot lower than what I had for Cecil. I doubt Wrex is stronger than Garrus and Garrus did not show that he was capable of challenging Red.

One thing Wrex will benefit from is Wario and Nintendo LFF in the match. While Pokemon and Nintendo tend to overlap less with each other the overlap is definitely going to be more than either character with Wrex. On the other hand Wario is the type of character that Nintendo fans would abandon to help Red so the split may not be enough to give Wrex the upset.

It is a shame that we still do not have a proper idea on how strong Red is and given the characters in next round we still will not. Mega Man X and Ocelot seem to suggest Red is a high mid-carder and given Blue’s performance I would agree that he ranks around there. Overall it depends on how close Wrex is to Garrus and how well Wario holds up.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Cecil Harvey > Pokemon Trainer Red and Wario

charmander6000’s Prediction: Pokemon Trainer Red – 39.52%, Urdnot Wrex – 36.67%, Wario – 23.81%
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 107/147 Today's Picks: Squall and Cecil
#455 | SliceSabre | Posted 8/30/2013 7:20:47 AM | message detail
As far as I'm concern past contest performance means nothing this year for higher tier characters.
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#456 | Kyle Bowen | Posted 8/30/2013 7:24:22 AM | message detail
GOOOOOOOOOD MOOOOOOOOORNING!

What a pleasant result to wake up to.
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KB
#457 | vcharon | Posted 8/30/2013 7:29:14 AM | message detail
Red is the heavy favorite, but what has that mattered lately? Pokemon is too strong this contest though, cannot see the ralliers pushing for Wrex here. He did impress me in his win, but as said I think Wario will roll over and Wrex needs him not to.
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Still smilin'
:>
#458 | lightsout06 | Posted 8/30/2013 7:47:38 AM | message detail | (edited)
After that huge Draven rally, it's like all of the Nintendo fans did the walk of shame to the door. This contest has truly shaken up since then, which has made it a "changing of the guard" like contest. This is the most exciting contest I have watched since the BGE contest when I didn't know this was NintendoFAQs.
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#459 | Valiant Squall | Posted 8/30/2013 8:14:00 AM | message detail
A missingno cut!

No matter... Squall got cut once and he got right back up and returned the favor!
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#460 | Dilated Chemist | Posted 8/30/2013 8:17:11 AM | message detail
I am excited for Samus/L/Tifa now.
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~ The Dilated One
IX: Link-VV-BB-SS-Cloud-Sora-Samus-Mario-Zard
#461 | creativename | Posted 8/30/2013 8:29:43 AM | message detail
SliceSabre posted...
As far as I'm concern past contest performance means nothing this year for higher tier characters.

Yeah, especially been tough for the Noble Nine

-Crono loses handily to Pikachu due to Magus LFF, but wouldn't have beat Pikachu by more than 52-53% 1v1 anyway which is pretty embarrassing for him

-Mario embarrasses himself even worse than Crono by losing to Vivi

-Mega Man is pretty much f***ed due to Zero's presence.

-Link might be lucky to break 40% against Draven.

-Cloud looks like crap and might lose to Squirtle.

-Sephiroth should win his three-pack with 24 hour matches, but both Big Boss and Kirby are dangerous, especially if Kirby gets a bandwagon for some reason. The fact that neither Big Boss or Kirby will fold might be Seph's saving grace, as they might split his anti-votes evenly enough for Seph to squeak by.

-Sonic looks vulnerable to Mewtwo due to Bowser's presence. I don't think Sonic will lose, but it's certainly possible,

-Even Samus could lose to L-Block, if L-Block can maintain his static voting block, and Tifa is an especially bad opponent for Samus against the Block.

Snake is the only one who's safe. Even if Cloud didn't look like ass all contest, Sora being there due to Pokemon LFF dooms him.

So yeah, a bracket designed to honor the Noble Nine and giving each member their own division, could result in only a single one of them winning his division.

Most likely 3-4 will win their divisions, but that's still pretty terrible.
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#462 | Qwaar | Posted 8/30/2013 8:39:00 AM | message detail
I'm still struggling what to do with expert. I have Wario -> Red -> Wrex, I may change that but I'm convinced the crew have underestimated Wario. Hmm. Maybe I'll switch the top 2 around.
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XBL Gamertag - Tiirshak
#463 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/30/2013 8:46:09 AM | message detail
Why is Tifa supposed to be an "especially bad opponent" for Samus? I know there was that one match seven years ago, but that can't actually mean anything, right?

(glad I'm a huge fan of both of them now)
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#464 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/30/2013 8:47:54 AM | message detail
Because of the TJF I guess.
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#465 | hylianknight3 | Posted 8/30/2013 8:49:15 AM | message detail
I guess those Squall stuffers are a lot more capable than those Tidus stuffers! RIP, my glitch!
#466 | lightning-02 | Posted 8/30/2013 8:50:32 AM | message detail
pre-thread up on /v/. People are undecided between Wario and Wrex
#467 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/30/2013 8:51:56 AM | message detail
So 2010 Luigi is expected to get 47.71% on Squall, does Year of Luigi make anyone take the upset?
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 107/147 Today's Picks: Squall and Cecil
#468 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/30/2013 8:52:19 AM | message detail
Oh damn, a pre-rally topic on /v/. If only I knew what /v/ is planning to rally in this match, I could take advantage of the situation to score free points in the Expert Challenge when most other users will get the match partially incorrect.
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Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#469 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/30/2013 8:52:48 AM | message detail
pre-thread up on /v/. People are undecided between Wario and Wrex

They'll probably concentrate more once they find out who is winning between the two.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 107/147 Today's Picks: Squall and Cecil
#470 | nintendogirl1 | Posted 8/30/2013 8:53:42 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
Why is Tifa supposed to be an "especially bad opponent" for Samus? I know there was that one match seven years ago, but that can't actually mean anything, right?

(glad I'm a huge fan of both of them now)


Because she's a strong character independent of both Samus and L-Block which means the percentage needed to win will be much lower, which benefits the static voting block character.
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*shrug*
#471 | lightning-02 | Posted 8/30/2013 8:53:54 AM | message detail
LinkMarioSamus posted...
Why is Tifa supposed to be an "especially bad opponent" for Samus? I know there was that one match seven years ago, but that can't actually mean anything, right?

(glad I'm a huge fan of both of them now)


I assume because she's strong enough to drag Samus into the L-Block red zone
#472 | mikisho | Posted 8/30/2013 8:53:59 AM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
Because of the TJF I guess.


Grraaaahhhh you guys and your acronyms are frustrating the hell out of me. It's not "The TDZ" or "The TJF". The "T" in those acronyms stands for "The". It's either "The DZ" and "The JF", or it's "TDZ" and "TJF". Because "The The Jug Factor" and "The The Dead Zone" sounds incredibly stupid!....

Sorry, I really needed to get that rant out of my system...
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#473 | superange128 | Posted 8/30/2013 8:54:54 AM | message detail
mikisho posted...
Safer_777 posted...
Because of the TJF I guess.


Grraaaahhhh you guys and your acronyms are frustrating the hell out of me. It's not "The TDZ" or "The TJF". The "T" in those acronyms stands for "The". It's either "The DZ" and "The JF", or it's "TDZ" and "TJF". Because "The The Jug Factor" and "The The Dead Zone" sounds incredibly stupid!....

Sorry, I really needed to get that rant out of my system...


well I can at least agree with you people should abbreviate things less
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#474 | nintendogirl1 | Posted 8/30/2013 8:55:42 AM | message detail
I don't know I've ever seen anyone use TDZ for the dead zone, we normally just type it out with the exception of trend charts right?
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*shrug*
#475 | Haste_2 | Posted 8/30/2013 8:56:37 AM | message detail
Chances of the remaining NNers to win next round:

Link - 10%
Sonic - 85%
Sephiroth - 75%
Snake - 99%
Cloud - 75%
Samus - 85%
Mega Man - 10%

Going by my arbitrary probabilities, four, maybe five, of the NN will make it to Round 4.
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#476 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/30/2013 8:57:13 AM | message detail | (edited)
mikisho posted...
Grraaaahhhh you guys and your acronyms are frustrating the hell out of me. It's not "The TDZ" or "The TJF". The "T" in those acronyms stands for "The". It's either "The DZ" and "The JF", or it's "TDZ" and "TJF". Because "The The Jug Factor" and "The The Dead Zone" sounds incredibly stupid!....

Sorry, I really needed to get that rant out of my system...


"TDZ" stands for Total Domination Zone, although "The Dead Zone" would acceptable as well since the TDZ happens during the least active voting period of the day.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#477 | mikisho | Posted 8/30/2013 8:57:04 AM | message detail
I saw people a little while ago calling it "The TDZ" in this topic. But regardless, it doesn't change the fact that "The TJF" is wrong. >_>
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Big or small, I don't like Rabbits. They always look like they're about to say something, but they never do.
PSN:Shimotto
#478 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/30/2013 8:57:44 AM | message detail
Are you ready for the Red board vote?!?!
(spoiler Wrex will win it)
#479 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/30/2013 8:57:51 AM | message detail
I hope the 4chan people decide to side with Wrex.
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
#480 | Scarlettail | Posted 8/30/2013 8:58:34 AM | message detail
Your turn, Red. Let's do this.
#481 | armitage999 | Posted 8/30/2013 8:58:39 AM | message detail
10% for Link seems rather high at this point. That match seems kind of hopeless if you're a Link/Shepard fan.
#482 | tennisboy213 | Posted 8/30/2013 9:00:14 AM | message detail
Vote Accepted


Wario
14.29%
1 Votes

Pokemon Trainer Red
71.43%
5 Votes
Your Pick

Urdnot Wrex
14.29%
1 Votes
Total Votes: 7
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POKEFEAR
#483 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/30/2013 9:00:28 AM | message detail
Gotta catch em all


Wario
13.33%
2 Votes

Pokemon Trainer Red
73.33%
11 Votes

Urdnot Wrex
13.33%
2 Votes
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 107/147 Today's Picks: Squall and Cecil
#484 | raytan7585 | Posted 8/30/2013 9:00:31 AM | message detail
Wario
10%
2 Votes

Pokemon Trainer Red
65%
13 Votes
Your Pick

Urdnot Wrex
25%
5 Votes

Total Votes: 20
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#485 | hylianknight3 | Posted 8/30/2013 9:00:44 AM | message detail
Wario
16.67%
5 Votes

Pokemon Trainer Red
56.67%
17 Votes
Your Pick

Urdnot Wrex
26.67%
8 Votes
#486 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/30/2013 9:01:17 AM | message detail
Weird
Takes /v/ too much time to wakeup
#487 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/30/2013 9:01:20 AM | message detail
I know Wrex started slowly last time, but lol
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 107/147 Today's Picks: Squall and Cecil
#488 | FranzyvonKarma | Posted 8/30/2013 9:01:38 AM | message detail
Yikes Mass Effect board vote.

Alternately if this means rallies push for Wario we could see him in the Final 9.
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~War~
#489 | hylianknight3 | Posted 8/30/2013 9:02:27 AM | message detail
Would be nice if we could have a normal result today.
#490 | shane15 | Posted 8/30/2013 9:03:22 AM | message detail
#491 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/30/2013 9:03:29 AM | message detail
2 minute freeze today.

Also, Missingno's biggest update of the match was the final 3 minutes of the match. Missingno also got 2 straight cuts at the end of the match.
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Luster Soldier --- ~Shield Bearer~ | ~Data Analyst~
Popular at school, but not as cool as SuperNiceDog, Guru Champ!
#492 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/30/2013 9:03:57 AM | message detail
hylianknight3 posted...
Would be nice if we could have a normal result today.


Wario ahead of Wrex,this is already not normal
Knowing /v/,they will rally Wario to 1st place
I don't care either way,Mewtwo and Charizard are the most important Pokemon currently bracket-wise
#493 | tgs2 | Posted 8/30/2013 9:04:08 AM | message detail
shane15 posted...
They're picking Wario over Wrex? wtf


/v/ loves the Wario brothers.
#494 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/30/2013 9:04:55 AM | message detail
So they picked Wario as their champion right?
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
#495 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/30/2013 9:04:58 AM | message detail
Wow

Didn't expect to see Wrex under Wario X_X

This match is going to make Cecil look awful
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
#496 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/30/2013 9:05:29 AM | message detail
Wario is too far behind. Though yeah it's kinda odd that Red isn't doubling him while Wrex is getting totaled.

So...Pit gets only 60% on A FREAKING CREEPER? Then again, both are really more super-recent characters more than anything (no one cares about Pit's old games, and we've seen time and time again that "Brawl-only" characters tank in these contests).
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#497 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/30/2013 9:06:25 AM | message detail | (edited)
There is no such a thing as "too far behind" in the first 10 minutes of the match
Ask Squall
#498 | tennisboy213 | Posted 8/30/2013 9:06:42 AM | message detail
They shoulda backed Wrex...
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POKEFEAR
#499 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/30/2013 9:07:03 AM | message detail
I guess Red wins easily.
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GameFaqs is NOT the place to go for relationship advice.Nobody here gets any action unless it is their right or left hand.Including me.~Dawn and Dusk~
#500 | hylianknight3 | Posted 8/30/2013 9:07:19 AM | message detail
Play Wario Land.