Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1137

#1 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/29/2013 4:03:07 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/7-site-suggestions/67111376

Sign my petition to increase gamefaqs vote totals.

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
---
[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
#2 | paulg235 | Posted 8/29/2013 4:03:45 PM | message detail
lol Mario
---
Allen didn't screw VV, Phoenix Wright didn't screw VV, Mewtwo certainly did not screw VV,
nor did paulg screw VV. Vincent Valentine screwed Vincent Valentine.
#3 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 8/29/2013 4:11:13 PM | message detail
The Noble Nine are a disgrace
---
"You are insects railing against the heavens. Your actions will change nothing." - Uhai, Fire Emblem 7
#4 | abdou | Posted 8/29/2013 4:15:16 PM | message detail
This Mario performance is worse than anything Cloud and Seph have done so far. I mean even if Vivi have some rally votes it should not be even close to matter.
---
...
#5 | superange128 | Posted 8/29/2013 4:20:54 PM | message detail
guess only FREAKING MARIO only works if he's against another Nintendo character close to his strength
---
Want any VNs pre-patched? PM me. List of VNs can be found by clicking on my username.
#6 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 8/29/2013 4:24:25 PM | message detail
By the end of the hour, this poll will likely have as many votes as Snake / Alucard / Bayonetta did over the entire 12-hour period.

Mario is 70-30'ing Ganon. Do the math guys...
---
... as if rights are like muscles - the more you use it, the better it gets. Indeed he may be exercising his first amendment-- but he's an IDIOT!
- A. Scalia
#7 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/29/2013 5:52:28 PM | message detail
The only opponent FREAKING MARIO has ever mattered against is Samus.
---
Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#8 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/29/2013 6:01:54 PM | message detail
Vivi by the Hour:

1:00 | 50.24%
2:00 | 50.52%
3:00 | 49.02%
4:00 | 50.50%
5:00 | 49.17%
6:00 | 51.92%
7:00 | 51.15%
8:00 | 49.76%
9:00 | 50.45%

Mario is holding stubbornly tough in the early SNV.
---
Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#9 | Haste_2 | Posted 8/29/2013 6:08:08 PM | message detail
We're 200 topics away from CS&D - part 1337.
---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those! It could be fun! So... what is a party?" "Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
#10 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/29/2013 7:16:16 PM | message detail
Vivi by the Hour:

1:00 | 50.24%
2:00 | 50.52%
3:00 | 49.02%
4:00 | 50.50%
5:00 | 49.17%
6:00 | 51.92%
7:00 | 51.15%
8:00 | 49.76%
9:00 | 50.45%
10:00 | 49.68%

Mario wins his 4th hour. Mario winning hours in the SNV is disturbing....
---
Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#11 | paulg235 | Posted 8/29/2013 7:17:08 PM | message detail
How is Vivi winning the ASV over MARIO?
---
Allen didn't screw VV, Phoenix Wright didn't screw VV, Mewtwo certainly did not screw VV,
nor did paulg screw VV. Vincent Valentine screwed Vincent Valentine.
#12 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/29/2013 7:17:31 PM | message detail
CIV: (2) Squall Leonhart vs. (5) Amaterasu vs. (8) Missingno

Previous Round

Squall Leonhart – 65.85%
Rayman – 26.21%
Commander Video – 7.95%

Amaterasu – 66.79%
Vyse – 20.59%
Adol Christin – 12.62%

Missingno – 40.58%
Tidus – 40.50%
Banjo – 18.92%

Analysis

I do not think there has been a contest where Amaterasu did not impress me. I know his opponents were terrible, but doubling your opponents combined is impressive to me. Amaterasu has never shown to be among the near-elites which is something she needs to be if she wants to take the upset. If Vyse has held constant I would give her a chance, but with Skies of Arcadia getting nothing it is quite likely that he is even weaker now.

Squall looked okay, assuming Rayman has gotten stronger. Rayman was beaten by Vyse back in 2007, but unlike Vyse he has been getting some games and Ubisoft has decided to focus on him again rather than the spin-offs they were making. In normal circumstances Squall should be able to win this match.

L-Block has showed that jokes are not fully dead which means Missingno has a great chance at winning this match. Tidus may be a step down from Squall, but jokes rarely operate linearly. Even taking into account the rally L-Block received it was not too far off from Auron plus there is no reason why this joke will also not be rallied.

With Pokemon and L-Block performing so well I am going to go with what I consider to be an upset and take Missingno to win. With rallies popping up everywhere it is going to be hard to predict matches, but we will see how things turn out.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Squall Leonhart > Missingno and Amaterasu

charmander6000’s Prediction: Missingno – 38.83%, Squall Leonhart – 36.56%, Amaterasu – 24.61%
---
BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 104/141 Today's Picks: Tifa Lockheart and Mario
#13 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/29/2013 7:17:37 PM | message detail
Lead of 142
21 updates to go
6.7 votes per update needed to win
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#14 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/29/2013 7:19:12 PM | message detail
Come on Vivi. We're in the true SNV now. Start gaining again! Before Mario's clutch comes to save him.
---
Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#15 | eaglesarebeasts | Posted 8/29/2013 7:19:22 PM | message detail
Mario is going to start making serious moves in about an hour. Will take the lead at the 11:45 update.

We all know its coming
---
http://i.imgur.com/CQVaT6Xl.jpg
#16 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/29/2013 7:20:45 PM | message detail
Yikes. Mario wasted no time with cutting.
---
Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#17 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/29/2013 7:21:01 PM | message detail
Nah, Vivi has this
---
BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 104/141 Today's Picks: Tifa Lockheart and Mario
#18 | Naved007 | Posted 8/29/2013 7:21:03 PM | message detail
Lead at 113 now.

Huehuehue
---
In King Phil We Trust.
Yankees.Giants.Knicks.Rangers | The Walking Dead, Homeland, Sons of Anarchy, Breaking Bad, Game of Thrones, Suits
#19 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/29/2013 7:21:11 PM | message detail
Vivi ralliers, we need your help!
---
Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#20 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/29/2013 7:21:15 PM | message detail
:(
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#21 | paulg235 | Posted 8/29/2013 7:21:47 PM | message detail
Mario is hulking up!
---
Allen didn't screw VV, Phoenix Wright didn't screw VV, Mewtwo certainly did not screw VV,
nor did paulg screw VV. Vincent Valentine screwed Vincent Valentine.
#22 | TAFKAHurricane | Posted 8/29/2013 7:22:40 PM | message detail
#23 | Gooper Blooper | Posted 8/29/2013 7:23:06 PM | message detail
vivi pls :<
---
And then the car wash cost five dollars.
#24 | NachoSwordsman | Posted 8/29/2013 7:23:41 PM | message detail
Lets go Mario!
#25 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/29/2013 7:23:56 PM | message detail
This is quickly becoming the worst match ever instead of the best.
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#26 | wedgeskywalker9 | Posted 8/29/2013 7:24:03 PM | message detail
paulg235 posted...
How is Vivi winning the ASV over MARIO?


More kids get home and log into 4chan than log into GameFAQs
---
Official Iron Man of C&GN
#27 | paulg235 | Posted 8/29/2013 7:25:02 PM | message detail
Wrong way, Mario!
---
Allen didn't screw VV, Phoenix Wright didn't screw VV, Mewtwo certainly did not screw VV,
nor did paulg screw VV. Vincent Valentine screwed Vincent Valentine.
#28 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/29/2013 7:25:33 PM | message detail
Mario already owns the worst match ever!

Okay, Vivi holds. I was really afraid Mario would smash through the 100 barrier there.
---
Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#29 | Kibago | Posted 8/29/2013 7:25:40 PM | message detail
i was really worried for sub-100 there. good job.
---
Leafs / Raptors / Blue Jays / TFC / Argos / Tottenham
We'll get 'em next year.
#30 | eaglesarebeasts | Posted 8/29/2013 7:26:11 PM | message detail
Nice Vivi. Every update is important.
---
http://i.imgur.com/CQVaT6Xl.jpg
#31 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/29/2013 7:28:16 PM | message detail
Vivi has the ralliers in his pocket, Mario would have to take the lead right on the last update to win.
---
BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 104/141 Today's Picks: Tifa Lockheart and Mario
#32 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/29/2013 7:28:43 PM | message detail
While trends still favor Vivi, there aren't that many more votes left at this point from normal activity, and he can't count on gaining too much on Mario from that- probably not more than a 100 vote edge. It's all about the rallying now.
---
Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#33 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/29/2013 7:29:40 PM | message detail
Vivi has some ralliers. Mario surely has his own ralliers.
---
Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#34 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/29/2013 7:30:37 PM | message detail
I predict a Mario spike next update. n_n
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#35 | paulg235 | Posted 8/29/2013 7:31:01 PM | message detail
Another lead change or two would make this a five-star match.
---
Allen didn't screw VV, Phoenix Wright didn't screw VV, Mewtwo certainly did not screw VV,
nor did paulg screw VV. Vincent Valentine screwed Vincent Valentine.
#36 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/29/2013 7:31:50 PM | message detail
This match has an outside shot of hitting 40,000
---
A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
#37 | creativename | Posted 8/29/2013 7:32:08 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
This is quickly becoming the worst match ever instead of the best.

This is why I said a few hours ago Mario was still probably going to win.

If Vivi pulls this off I'll be real impressed. Mario probably smashes through the last few updates with monster vote totals (for the time) and wins going away, though. He's the master at that.
---
www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
#38 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/29/2013 7:32:33 PM | message detail
Bold prediction: Crono/Mario/MMX hits 50,000.
---
Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#39 | paulg235 | Posted 8/29/2013 7:33:42 PM | message detail
If Mario wins this, Vivi should take his spot in the strongest R2 loser match.
---
Allen didn't screw VV, Phoenix Wright didn't screw VV, Mewtwo certainly did not screw VV,
nor did paulg screw VV. Vincent Valentine screwed Vincent Valentine.
#40 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/29/2013 7:34:24 PM | message detail
Bah, Crono > MMX is not nearly as fun.
---
Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#41 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/29/2013 7:34:51 PM | message detail
And Vivi might even get some LFF on Crono, resulting in MMX winning. Argh.
---
Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#42 | TheOneAboveAll | Posted 8/29/2013 7:34:59 PM | message detail
Mario on the comeback trail. Why does this feel so familiar?
#43 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/29/2013 7:35:45 PM | message detail
106 now.

Is this the real life?
Is this just fantasy?
---
Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#44 | creativename | Posted 8/29/2013 7:36:10 PM | message detail
charmander6000 posted...
Vivi has the ralliers in his pocket, Mario would have to take the lead right on the last update to win.

Historically, nobody has as many rallies in their pocket as much as Mario, except maybe Pokemanz. (Excluding Draven of course)

L-Block showed off huge rally power vs. Auron but the block isn't as consistent as Mario.
---
www.gamefaqscontests.com
www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery
#45 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/29/2013 7:36:21 PM | message detail
I'd quote the song with you
But I'm depressed over this result
I'd certainly like to escape from reality
---
Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#46 | paulg235 | Posted 8/29/2013 7:37:09 PM | message detail
Mario is summoning the power of all the littile Nintendrones all around the web in order to push for the win.
---
Allen didn't screw VV, Phoenix Wright didn't screw VV, Mewtwo certainly did not screw VV,
nor did paulg screw VV. Vincent Valentine screwed Vincent Valentine.
#47 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/29/2013 7:37:15 PM | message detail
Okay, that song is too mopey. OOT music it is. Link will crush Mario, for Great Justice.
---
Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#48 | kurtfisto | Posted 8/29/2013 7:38:32 PM | message detail
this match is just amazing
---
They don't always think it be like it is, but it do.
~KF~
#49 | DreamwaIker | Posted 8/29/2013 7:39:06 PM | message detail
wedgeskywalker9 posted...
paulg235 posted...
How is Vivi winning the ASV over MARIO?

More kids get home and log into 4chan than log into GameFAQs

Lol.
---
~ The Epic Struggle ~ Relevant Info: http://www.goo.gl/46RvS
Current Topic: http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/400-/67025662
#50 | Kibago | Posted 8/29/2013 7:40:10 PM | message detail
nooooooo
---
Leafs / Raptors / Blue Jays / TFC / Argos / Tottenham
We'll get 'em next year.