Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1136

#401 | Whupassman | Posted 8/29/2013 4:07:12 PM | message detail
nkansas13 posted...
I'm impressed that nobody's accusing Vivi of stuffing.


Give it time, lad.
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#402 | superange128 | Posted 8/29/2013 4:08:03 PM | message detail
I think it already happened a few times.

But people want Vivi to win so less people will complain about it lolol
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#403 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/29/2013 4:08:53 PM | message detail
Does anyone have the old BOP numbers? I noticed a few days ago that the "Most Embarrassing Results" page on the wiki only has numbers through 2008. I have to imagine that a number of more recent results would've made that list. (For example, 73.87% of the site as a whole correctly picked Kefka > Arthas in 2010. Given how low the current threshold for making the list for 1v1 matches is, Kefka > Arthas should easily qualify.)
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#404 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/29/2013 4:15:26 PM | message detail
Which ones are you looking for?
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 104/141 Today's Picks: Tifa Lockheart and Mario
#405 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/29/2013 4:18:50 PM | message detail
#406 | creativename | Posted 8/29/2013 4:20:59 PM | message detail
I'm still favoring Mario here, you just know his so-called "clutch" can swing 300 votes in the last hour. Hope I'm wrong!

Lopen posted...
I was expecting Mario to get like 75% on him at least.

Well that's a bit too high, I think most had him around 70% on Ganon. People grossly underestimated how much of that would be pure LFF though.

Also I was hoping to get your thoughts on the Tom Nook/Master Chief x-stats >_>
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#407 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/29/2013 4:23:03 PM | message detail
Normal trends kicking in! Hail the SNV.

Of course, we've seen this before. Crono pulling away with the SNV only to have Mario come back furiously during Crono's best hours of the day. Hopefully Vivi can really build this lead in the next 3.5 hours.
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#408 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/29/2013 4:23:52 PM | message detail
Weren't Mario's rallies based on really blatant cheating that was just never touched? I think the current system in place are better than that, at least.
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#409 | Lopen | Posted 8/29/2013 4:25:12 PM | message detail
I have no words for the Tom Nook/Master Chief x-stats. No words.

And Ganondorf has always sucked with SFF so yeah I expected him to get flattened harder than Zelda did. 75% isn't too unreasonable, really.
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#410 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/29/2013 4:27:27 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
lawl gamespot and its crummy ~10-11k votals over several days
FF got like 50.4% (?) on Halo there, let's take bets on FF's % on Halo if we were to do a series contest here


CrushDavis posted...
http://www.gamespot.com/greatest-game-series/peoples-choice/index.html

oh wow this contest


I didn't even know that contest was going on, mostly because that contest is happening at the same time as this contest. That GameSpot contest requires you to be logged into an account in order to vote, so you can expect the results will not be tainted by vote stuffing and rallying.
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#411 | Lopen | Posted 8/29/2013 4:31:54 PM | message detail | (edited)
Also with the 75% I felt this contest was more vicious about Nintendo SFF cannibalism than our usual-- like DK destroyed Falco for example when most had that split going fairly even more like DK/Marth (and their x-stat strength probably isn't that far off)
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#412 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/29/2013 4:30:24 PM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
I didn't even know that contest was going on, mostly because that contest is happening at the same time as this contest. That GameSpot contest requires you to be logged into an account in order to vote, so you can expect the results will not be tainted by vote stuffing and rallying.


also, no LoL
so even if they were willing to mass create accounts....TOO BAD!
#413 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/29/2013 4:30:53 PM | message detail
Weren't Mario's rallies based on really blatant cheating that was just never touched? I think the current system in place are better than that, at least.

So we thought, but after seeing Missingno in 2010 and L-Block yesterday, I'll concede that it's possible it was legitimate. Well, the male/female poll thing was obviously cheating, and the poll being open for almost an extra half hour is ridiculous, but it's possible everything else was just rallying.
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#414 | jacko_vdz | Posted 8/29/2013 4:34:55 PM | message detail
I just woke up and what is this?

Mario is losing?

Is this reddit or something?
#415 | Greyfeld | Posted 8/29/2013 4:39:04 PM | message detail | (edited)
WhiteLens posted...
But seriously I think I'm gonna put Bowser in last against Sonic and Mewtwo. No idea who to put in 1st and 2nd.


I'm starting to think that Mewtwo>Sonic>Bowser isn't unreasonable. After seeing Mario come up short to put down Vivi, of all characters (love Vivi, but he's a midcarder at best), and after looking through some old matches and seeing these:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2898
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/2870

I think Mewtwo has every chance in the world of slipping into first after Sonic and Bowser LFF the hell out of each other.
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#416 | Kibago | Posted 8/29/2013 4:37:42 PM | message detail
mario stop
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#417 | Acerac | Posted 8/29/2013 4:38:04 PM | message detail
jacko_vdz posted...
I just woke up and what is this?

Mario is losing?

Is this reddit or something?

The casual face of gaming losing to a relatively obscure jrpg character?

Maybe reddit is a cooler place than I thought.
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#418 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/29/2013 4:39:20 PM | message detail
Team Rocket Elite posted...
Support for Tifa is a lot lower than I expected. I didn't know so many people went with Dragonborn in this match.


The problem here is that the huge majority of casuals had Master Chief over Yuna back in round 1, so there were a lot of casuals who had Master Chief winning this nine-pack. Also, Dragonborn might have received a lot of casual support as well.
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#419 | Responder | Posted 8/29/2013 4:41:31 PM | message detail
Acerac posted...
jacko_vdz posted...
I just woke up and what is this?

Mario is losing?

Is this reddit or something?

The casual face of gaming losing to a relatively obscure jrpg character?

Maybe reddit is a cooler place than I thought.


JRPGs aren't fun to me. I'd rather have some good gameplay, not an animeish story with repetition.
#420 | Greyfeld | Posted 8/29/2013 4:43:56 PM | message detail
Responder posted...
Acerac posted...
jacko_vdz posted...
I just woke up and what is this?

Mario is losing?

Is this reddit or something?

The casual face of gaming losing to a relatively obscure jrpg character?

Maybe reddit is a cooler place than I thought.


JRPGs aren't fun to me. I'd rather have some good gameplay, not an animeish story with repetition.


*Claims not to like repetition*
*Prefers Mario games*

wat
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#421 | Responder | Posted 8/29/2013 4:45:28 PM | message detail
Greyfeld posted...
Responder posted...
Acerac posted...
jacko_vdz posted...
I just woke up and what is this?

Mario is losing?

Is this reddit or something?

The casual face of gaming losing to a relatively obscure jrpg character?

Maybe reddit is a cooler place than I thought.


JRPGs aren't fun to me. I'd rather have some good gameplay, not an animeish story with repetition.


*Claims not to like repetition*
*Prefers Mario games*

wat


RPG battles are much more alike than Mario levels are. Don't you get it?
#422 | -Zelmor- | Posted 8/29/2013 4:46:43 PM | message detail
Nintendo still ultimately holds more votes in this match, let's hope they are smart enough to anti-vote Square later on in the contest.
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#423 | Greyfeld | Posted 8/29/2013 4:46:51 PM | message detail
Responder posted...
RPG battles are much more alike than Mario levels are. Don't you get it?


Mario games have been using the same gameplay and story formula for 25 years. Seems like a far more severe sort of repetition, to me.
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#424 | LOLContests | Posted 8/29/2013 4:47:59 PM | message detail
I've posted about this before in another topic I believe, but crazy cheating/rally aside Mario probably does win a "legitimate" 24 hour match in 2003.

If the match was held from 12AM CST to 12 AM CST like it should have been, that means that the first 20 minutes gets excluded. First off, Crono only won the 12-12 time frame by 20 or so votes in our actual poll. However, that doesn't mean he would have won by a similar margin in a proper poll, as all the votes from the first 20 minutes wouldn't just disappear. Most of the people that voted during that time would just vote again later, and considering the fact that Mario won that time frame by 100 or so votes, that's probably enough to give him the edge.
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#425 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/29/2013 4:48:11 PM | message detail
Mario's coming back. Of course he is.

Dare I say it? Nah, I'm afraid I'd jinx it. It's like talking about a no-hitter while it's in progress.
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#426 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/29/2013 4:49:11 PM | message detail
LOLContests posted...
I've posted about this before in another topic I believe, but crazy cheating/rally aside Mario probably does win a "legitimate" 24 hour match in 2003.

If the match was held from 12AM CST to 12 AM CST like it should have been, that means that the first 20 minutes gets excluded. First off, Crono only won the 12-12 time frame by 20 or so votes in our actual poll. However, that doesn't mean he would have won by a similar margin in a proper poll, as all the votes from the first 20 minutes wouldn't just disappear. Most of the people that voted during that time would just vote again later, and considering the fact that Mario won that time frame by 100 or so votes, that's probably enough to give him the edge.


Too true. Good point; I'm surprised I hadn't heard it brought up more.
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#427 | General_Zimbad | Posted 8/29/2013 4:49:39 PM | message detail
Just woke up an hour ago. Come on gameFAQs...

Dear god!!

Wasn't expecting this at all.

Although this is actually a pleasing result haha. Aside from my bracket, but everyone will get that.
#428 | jacko_vdz | Posted 8/29/2013 4:50:21 PM | message detail
So are we crediting this mostly to LFF from Ganon? Honestly, I'd expect Ganon to be getting murdered by Mario.

Have there been any successful Reddit rallies? Or has it been just 4chan at this stage?
#429 | armitage999 | Posted 8/29/2013 4:52:12 PM | message detail
I should know better than to have Mario go kind of far in my bracket on GameFAQs. I just never got any sort of impression that he was popular with the site.
#430 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/29/2013 4:52:28 PM | message detail
Yeah, but if the poll started later the rallying may very well start later. Basically, Mario had 2 stellar updates at the very beginning and very end of the match, more than 24 hours apart, and the only way he wins is to get both. Moreover, polls regularly started and ended around 11:50 in that contest, much more than 12. Based on 11:50, that poll started 10 minutes early and ended 17 minutes late.

We'll never know what would have happened though.
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#431 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/29/2013 4:53:24 PM | message detail
There are a couple of reddit rallies, including one on the same board the L Block got. Although that only got 4000 clicks in 8 hours, compared to the L Block one that got like 20,000 in 6 hours.
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#432 | JJH777 | Posted 8/29/2013 4:53:53 PM | message detail
Greyfeld posted...
Responder posted...
RPG battles are much more alike than Mario levels are. Don't you get it?


Mario games have been using the same gameplay and story formula for 25 years. Seems like a far more severe sort of repetition, to me.


The same story formula is true but doesn't really matter since the story isn't actually a focus. Gameplay being the same isn't true at all though. All the Mario games feel very different. SMB3 to SMW to SM64 to Sunshine to SMG are all huge differences.
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#433 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/29/2013 4:56:19 PM | message detail
Vivi looks like he's been losing some ground. RED SOX, TELL ME WHAT WILL HAPPEN
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#434 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/29/2013 4:57:54 PM | message detail
Just variance. Some hourlies and projections coming up!
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#435 | creativename | Posted 8/29/2013 4:59:02 PM | message detail
Mario did not win a single 24 hour segment of that poll. To even discuss that as anything but a travesty is silliness.

Can't believe people are still trying to defend Ceej's ridiculous mismanagement of that all these years later. Son, I am disappoint!
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#436 | Responder | Posted 8/29/2013 4:59:33 PM | message detail
Greyfeld posted...
Responder posted...
RPG battles are much more alike than Mario levels are. Don't you get it?


Mario games have been using the same gameplay and story formula for 25 years. Seems like a far more severe sort of repetition, to me.


Not really. One, I don't play a game for the story. That's what movies and books are for. Two, if you believe that Mario 1, 2, 3, World, World 2, 64, Sunshine, Galaxy, and the New SMB games use the "same gameplay formula", I have a right to call you ignorant. The gameplay may have some common elements, but they're overall different from each other that I wouldn't call them repetitive. Three, I never indicated that repetition was necessarily a bad thing. My main criticism of JRPGs is an overemphasis on an animeish story, and hence why I quit playing them.
#437 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/29/2013 5:00:22 PM | message detail
I don't think he's defending the dumb dumb decisions in that match, just that in a normal match Mario might have won it anyway. Crono was still ridiculously screwed.
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#438 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/29/2013 5:01:23 PM | message detail
The Final Fantasy series is very diverse and changes it up almost every game. The Mario series doesn't rest on its laurels, either (at least the 3D ones). This discussion is silly.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#439 | LOLContests | Posted 8/29/2013 5:02:07 PM | message detail
I wouldn't count Mario out yet:


2009-06-02 23:45:15 11.08% / 28.96% / 29.00% / 30.96% / 2268 / 53 / 20712 / 12843 / 33555 / 33608 / 35876 / 115882



2009-06-02 23:40:13 11.09% / 28.97% / 28.97% / 30.97% / 2305 / 2 / 20674 / 12814 / 33490 / 33488 / 35795 / 11558


Never forget.
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#440 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/29/2013 5:05:12 PM | message detail
Mario makes a 237 vote cut in the last 5 minutes. Comes up 2 votes short.

Crono sheds a single tear.
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#441 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/29/2013 5:05:30 PM | message detail
Based on Kirby/Vivi, Vivi wins with 50.50%.
Based on Bowser/The Boss, Vivi wins with 50.42%
Based on Bowser/Sub-Zero, Vivi wins with 51.14%
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#442 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/29/2013 5:08:05 PM | message detail
Based on Big Boss/Luigi, Vivi wins with 50.34%.
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#443 | lightning-02 | Posted 8/29/2013 5:08:32 PM | message detail
How about based on L-Block/Auron?
#444 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/29/2013 5:10:32 PM | message detail
So basically, if Vivi's SNV is the same level as MGS, he's looking at winning by around 300 votes. If Vivi's SNV is around the same level as Sub-Zero, he's looking at a win by around 750. Before shenanigans.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
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#445 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/29/2013 5:11:15 PM | message detail
How about based on L-Block/Auron?

Based on L-Block/Auron Vivi runs away with it and wins by thousands of votes.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
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#446 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/29/2013 5:13:02 PM | message detail
If Vivi holds on, then Division 3 just got really interesting. A huge, huge door has been opened. Wrex could end up winning it for all we know.
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#447 | ZFS | Posted 8/29/2013 5:13:52 PM | message detail
Mario come on gotta get that victory
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#448 | pjbasis | Posted 8/29/2013 5:14:06 PM | message detail
What really bugs me is that this is starting to look like a B8 contest, sans Draven.
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#449 | swordz9 | Posted 8/29/2013 5:14:39 PM | message detail
Wario winning that match would be more surprising than Wrex winning.
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#450 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/29/2013 5:16:01 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
If Vivi holds on, then Division 3 just got really interesting. A huge, huge door has been opened. Wrex could end up winning it for all we know.


last time I checked, Division 3's final was Sephiroth/Big Boss/Kirby, not exactly unexpected!