Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1136

#251 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/29/2013 2:20:44 PM | message detail
Mario's running out of day vote here. It's past 5 PM, will be past 6 PM soon. Unless he gets a burst of rallying or the West Coast ASV miraculously returns today, we can expect Vivi to start having more solid gains soon.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#252 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/29/2013 2:22:08 PM | message detail | (edited)
Mario shaves a mere three votes off of Vivi's lead.
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#253 | -Zelmor- | Posted 8/29/2013 2:21:31 PM | message detail | (edited)
What a string of bad luck for Mario, Mario series is getting doubled by Elder Scrolls on gamespot.
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#254 | CrushDavis | Posted 8/29/2013 2:22:01 PM | message detail
so if Vivi actually wins here

Would this be the most unexpected result ever? I mean, theres been some like L Block beating Link that nobody would have predicted before the match but by the time it came around we expected it. But... Vivi would come out of no where to beat Mario. I mean yeah theres Ganon in the poll, but still you'd never expect Vivi would get this close to him
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#255 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/29/2013 2:22:49 PM | message detail
Knuckles > Magus. 0 picks in the Guru, Oracle, or BOP. But did anyone take Vivi in anything today?
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#256 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/29/2013 2:23:44 PM | message detail
If you see the results L-Block had 0.3% correct prediction when he won the championship.If Vivi wins here the percentage will be above 10%.So you can say L-Block was the most unexpected.
BUT nobody and I mean nobody was expected that,while in that contest as the matches were moving it was clear that L-Block would won.
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#257 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/29/2013 2:23:58 PM | message detail
lightning-02 posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
If you want the evidence of a *real* big rally, this is the image tracker from the L-Block reddit thread last night:



This is nowhere close. If Vivi starts blowing away Mario this evening it'll be different, but this match has been close all day.


That only started in the last hour of the poll, Auron was damn lucky the match ended when it did.


No, the poll was only halfway over when that thread started up. It obviously picked up steam, but the point is this isn't even close to L-Block's biggest rallying yesterday. Mario would be simply dead if that were the case.
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#258 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/29/2013 2:23:58 PM | message detail
-Zelmor- posted...
What a string of bad luck for Mario, Mario series is getting doubled by Elder Scrolls on gamespot.


lawl gamespot and its crummy ~10-11k votals over several days
FF got like 50.4% (?) on Halo there, let's take bets on FF's % on Halo if we were to do a series contest here
#259 | CrushDavis | Posted 8/29/2013 2:24:12 PM | message detail
#260 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/29/2013 2:25:02 PM | message detail | (edited)
If Vivi advances two rounds (possible if we get Vivi/Missingno/Red), then that prediction percentage will be insane.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#261 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/29/2013 2:25:35 PM | message detail
Vivi making another push. Let's break the 100 barrier this time.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#262 | NM4 | Posted 8/29/2013 2:26:00 PM | message detail
this is so weird
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#263 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/29/2013 2:26:17 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
-Zelmor- posted...
What a string of bad luck for Mario, Mario series is getting doubled by Elder Scrolls on gamespot.


lawl gamespot and its crummy ~10-11k votals over several days
FF got like 50.4% (?) on Halo there, let's take bets on FF's % on Halo if we were to do a series contest here


Uhhhh, 70%+?
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#264 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/29/2013 2:26:28 PM | message detail
Literally a 37 vote gain.
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#265 | Scarlettail | Posted 8/29/2013 2:26:53 PM | message detail
Looks pretty over to me. Vivi has all the momentum.
#266 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/29/2013 2:27:44 PM | message detail
Fayt_Esteed posted...
Uhhhh, 70%+?


not precise enough :P
#267 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/29/2013 2:28:21 PM | message detail
This match seems dependent on Mario at the moment. Vivi's recent gains and cut have all been because of Mario getting a huge spike or falling off the face of the earth.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#268 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/29/2013 2:28:46 PM | message detail
If you haven't yet done so, sign my petition to increase vote totals.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/7-site-suggestions/67111376
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#269 | JJH777 | Posted 8/29/2013 2:29:28 PM | message detail
CrushDavis posted...
-Zelmor- posted...
What a string of bad luck for Mario, Mario series is getting doubled by Elder Scrolls on gamespot.


http://www.gamespot.com/greatest-game-series/peoples-choice/index.html

oh wow this contest


If it is the greatest game series of the decade why is an image of Cloud representing Final Fantasy?
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#270 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/29/2013 2:30:02 PM | message detail
Boom.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#271 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 8/29/2013 2:30:18 PM | message detail
Welp

:(
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#272 | CrushDavis | Posted 8/29/2013 2:30:21 PM | message detail
#273 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/29/2013 2:30:53 PM | message detail
90?
OK
well
this is...whatever
#274 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/29/2013 2:31:46 PM | message detail
JJH777 posted...
If it is the greatest game series of the decade why is an image of Cloud representing Final Fantasy?


I'm convinced that had Lightning been on the pic instead of Cloud, FF would've lost at least 55-45 to Halo
#275 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/29/2013 2:31:50 PM | message detail
What was the biggest lead so far?
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#276 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/29/2013 2:32:28 PM | message detail | (edited)
For the record, that was the biggest gain either one has had all match, and this is the biggest lead so far.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#277 | hylianknight3 | Posted 8/29/2013 2:32:23 PM | message detail
I want Mario to win, but man do I suck at using Reddit.

I don't even have any idea how to find my own thread:
http://redd.it/1lca1w

lol at me, I guess.
#278 | lightning-02 | Posted 8/29/2013 2:32:32 PM | message detail
I made some posts on /vg/ and mmo champion to help him out, will hopefully give him momentum for a proper lead. There's a reddit thread with over 2500 views at this stage too, it's been gathering steam for a while now and I'm saying it now because I think its too late to stop it.

I'll add that I hope in future your admin considers making some pro-userbase decisions for a change because I only did what I did for L-Block and Vivi because of his "rally your own personal army" comments. And I'm amazed how easy it was.
#279 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/29/2013 2:32:33 PM | message detail
Mario's votals went way down for some reason. Like wayyyyyy down. Wonder what's up with that.
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#280 | Lopen | Posted 8/29/2013 2:32:33 PM | message detail
Vivi pulling away will the miracle happen

Possibly the best left field upset in the history of contests in the making here
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#281 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/29/2013 2:32:39 PM | message detail
Safer_777 posted...
What was the biggest lead so far?


The 90-vote lead we have right now, actually.

Vivi's done f***ing around.
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#282 | Scarlettail | Posted 8/29/2013 2:33:13 PM | message detail
Nice try, Mario.

At least we have more of this to look forward to with Squall/Missingo later.
#283 | anondum | Posted 8/29/2013 2:33:41 PM | message detail
this contest is so dumb. but the good kind of dumb. pacific rim dumb
#284 | Crimson Dragoon | Posted 8/29/2013 2:33:58 PM | message detail
I'm literally going to have zero people correct in my bracket finals.

Link/Cloud/Mario?

More like Draven/Snake/who the hell knows. Samus? Charizard? L-BLOCK?!?!?!
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#285 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/29/2013 2:34:31 PM | message detail
Despite the huge gain, the vote totals were still pretty consistent. Vivi just went up slightly while Mario drop slightly from the previous update (which was already a good gain). That's important because it implies natural trends in the making, rather than rally power, which is what Vivi truly needs to win.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#286 | DSRKVRTheDealer | Posted 8/29/2013 2:34:54 PM | message detail
This is, like, the best results I've ever seen, since, ever.

Go Vivi!
#287 | Denzokuken | Posted 8/29/2013 2:35:09 PM | message detail
Yup, Mario's rally is finally dying. I think they're giving up. Mario, our 'second strongest character', the anti-Draven, being schooled by a little black mage.
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#288 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/29/2013 2:35:32 PM | message detail
Mario begins a comeback.
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#289 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/29/2013 2:36:45 PM | message detail
...okay yeah Mario's the one getting rallied.

Mario vs. Vivi:
119 123
88 110
105 133
148 130
115 122
96 123
89 131
143 125

That's one too many insane swings for my liking.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#290 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/29/2013 2:36:53 PM | message detail
If Vivi wins this match and Missingno wins tomorrow, he's got a great shot at going to the finals if Samus can hold serve against L-Block. Vivi/Missingno/Red followed by Samus/Vivi/Charizard.
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#291 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 8/29/2013 2:36:54 PM | message detail
If this holds, it will be my favorite upset ever, ahead even of L-Block's original run.
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#292 | Silver_Ermine | Posted 8/29/2013 2:37:12 PM | message detail
Geez Mario, stop cheating yo!
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#293 | DSRKVRTheDealer | Posted 8/29/2013 2:37:47 PM | message detail
Ultimaphazon posted...
If this holds, it will be my favorite upset ever, ahead even of L-Block's original run.
#294 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/29/2013 2:38:07 PM | message detail
So we need Missingno to win to ensure Vivi makes the semi-finals!
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#295 | ZFS | Posted 8/29/2013 2:38:19 PM | message detail
If it weren't for the absurdity of this contest, where anything can happen now, I would say this is pretty significant showing that Nintendo has dropped off considerably on this site, from its previous highs, and there's just nothing meaningful to have come along to fill in the hole. If you want to use this to say Mario has dropped, I don't think anything represents the feeling of Nintendo on here more than Mario.
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#296 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/29/2013 2:39:01 PM | message detail
Despite the huge gain, the vote totals were still pretty consistent. Vivi just went up slightly while Mario drop slightly from the previous update (which was already a good gain). That's important because it implies natural trends in the making, rather than rally power, which is what Vivi truly needs to win.

This traditional spike analysis is deeply flawed. We can't distinguish variance from extra votes in this way. The natural pattern is for some spikes, in an unpredictable manner- in fact a pattern with no spikes would be very surprising.

That said, I feel good about Vivi. If the rally truly is even, then Vivi's probably good to average close to 52% on Mario over the rest of the match.

50
50
50
50
50
50
51
51
52
52
53
54
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#297 | DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 8/29/2013 2:39:06 PM | message detail
What the hell guys

What the hell

This makes no goddamn sense.


I'm still really, really believing in the "It's freaking MARIO" argument though. Fat cheating bastard will pull this off somehow.

If Vivi beats the cheats I will be stunned. This is insane.
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#298 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/29/2013 2:41:49 PM | message detail
Can anyone summon Black Turtle
I really really want to see his reaction
Like,I must
#299 | Scarlettail | Posted 8/29/2013 2:41:53 PM | message detail
ZFS posted...
If it weren't for the absurdity of this contest, where anything can happen now, I would say this is pretty significant showing that Nintendo has dropped off considerably on this site, from its previous highs, and there's just nothing meaningful to have come along to fill in the hole. If you want to use this to say Mario has dropped, I don't think anything represents the feeling of Nintendo on here more than Mario.


Except Pokemon.
#300 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/29/2013 2:42:34 PM | message detail
Oh and..Lightning?
Do you prepare to rally more characters? because I want to have inside info on my expert challenge picking