Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1136

#1 | UltimaterializerX | Posted 8/29/2013 11:20:00 AM | message detail
Do I look like some lowly black mage soldier?



~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
www.gamefaqscontests.com

~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
http://board8.wikia.com/

~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html

~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
http://www.thengamer.com/
http://thengamer.com/xstats

~*GameFAQs Contests Hall of Fame*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Hall_of_Fame
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/GameFAQs_Contests_Match_Hall_of_Fame

~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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#2 | Not_Wylvane | Posted 8/29/2013 11:23:11 AM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
You know who the real joke characters are this contest?

The Noble Nine.

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#3 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/29/2013 11:24:26 AM | message detail
Not_Wylvane posted...
Not_Wylvane posted...
You know who the real joke characters are this contest?

The Noble Nine.


Too early to call it but yes we are in third way there (assuming Link indeed lose to Draven..and it will happen)
#4 | superange128 | Posted 8/29/2013 11:27:27 AM | message detail
it's funny since this contest was supposed to honor the noble 9

or it was SB's plan to have them all lose before they meet each other
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#5 | hylianknight3 | Posted 8/29/2013 11:29:26 AM | message detail
Yeah, there is a chance that none of them make it to the final nine!
#6 | startme_up | Posted 8/29/2013 11:36:21 AM | message detail
hylianknight3 posted...
Yeah, there is a chance that none of them make it to the final nine!


Snake will almost certainly make it. The rest, yeah, I can see them somehow losing, but Snake should be perfectly fine.
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#7 | hylianknight3 | Posted 8/29/2013 11:38:34 AM | message detail
Snake is definitely the most likely to advance, but there is a non-zero chance Kefka pulls off another non-sensical win.
#8 | KingBartz | Posted 8/29/2013 11:38:35 AM | message detail
If Vivi could beat Mario, what's stopping Kefka from beating Snake?
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#9 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/29/2013 11:42:55 AM | message detail
Time to try this again:

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/7-site-suggestions/67111376
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[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
#10 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/29/2013 11:43:14 AM | message detail
KingBartz posted...
If Vivi could beat Mario, what's stopping Kefka from beating Snake?


His history as a chokemeister.
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#11 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 8/29/2013 11:59:48 AM | message detail
Anyone hazard a guess at the rallying numbers?

Blue / Drake / G&W had 11.3K votes by this point, we're at 13K so maybe 1.7K is a good estimate for the added rally votes?
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#12 | Denzokuken | Posted 8/29/2013 12:00:04 PM | message detail
Mario's rally drops off and Vivi cuts right back.
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#13 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/29/2013 12:00:13 PM | message detail
Oh screw it I wanted "Play Super Mario RPG" final post
Whatever
#14 | The Real Truth | Posted 8/29/2013 12:00:38 PM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Oh screw it I wanted "Play Super Mario RPG" final post
Whatever


Nope

Squall Leonhart, greatest character of all time.
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#15 | pronouncemyname | Posted 8/29/2013 12:01:22 PM | message detail
I don't like Mario or Vivi (never played FF9) but I love this match right now.
#16 | Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 8/29/2013 12:02:15 PM | message detail
Man this was totally Snake's year If Mario is doing this bad.

and that ****** Noxian scumbag is gonna wreck it for him :/


Damnit LoL ***s, why couldn't you get someone good in here, Like Cho'gath? Gentleman Cho'gath winning this wouldve been godtier amazing.
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#17 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/29/2013 12:02:30 PM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
Oh screw it I wanted "Play Super Mario RPG" final post
Whatever
I approve. You are a good user.

I too was trying for the last post, to advertise my petition.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/7-site-suggestions/67111376

"Play Super Mario RPG" would have also been excellent, however!
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[NO BARKLEY NO PEACE]
#18 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/29/2013 12:02:47 PM | message detail
Probably that's too high. Mario and Vivi are naturally better vote draws than Blue and Drake.
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#19 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/29/2013 12:03:03 PM | message detail
Also, if Mario loses I'm willing to appeal to Bacon retooling the poll to give us Mario/Crono VII.
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#20 | JJH777 | Posted 8/29/2013 12:03:41 PM | message detail
Shoenin_Kakashi posted...
Man this was totally Snake's year If Mario is doing this bad.

and that ****** Noxian scumbag is gonna wreck it for him :/


Damnit LoL ***s, why couldn't you get someone good in here, Like Cho'gath? Gentleman Cho'gath winning this wouldve been godtier amazing.


Wouldn't Snake have wanted Mario to be as strong as possible? This suggest that Mario just would have been decimated by Link enough to prevent Snake from winning.
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#21 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 8/29/2013 12:04:10 PM | message detail
Currently a 1 vote lead.
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#22 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/29/2013 12:04:15 PM | message detail
If Nintendo does bad enough, Snake doesn't need Mario to leech Link!
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#23 | Kikoman589 | Posted 8/29/2013 12:04:33 PM | message detail
Mario winning by 2 votes...
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#24 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/29/2013 12:04:40 PM | message detail
Wow, Vivi's still in it.
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"Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
#25 | xp1337 | Posted 8/29/2013 12:04:50 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
Also, if Mario loses I'm willing to appeal to Bacon retooling the poll to give us Mario/Crono VII.

If he insists on a 3-way match, throw in MMX. It'll hurt Mario but Crono probably needs that and I'm not sure there's a better option of comparable strength. Unless you can get real fodder in there or something.
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#26 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/29/2013 12:05:07 PM | message detail
Fayt_Esteed posted...
KingBartz posted...
If Vivi could beat Mario, what's stopping Kefka from beating Snake?


His history as a chokemeister.


Love it. Even though Snake appears to be the favorite in R4 among Gurus overall, for some strange reason most of the other people who picked the Charizard > Mario and Samus upset also picked Cloud > Snake. I'm the only live bracket with both Snake and Charizard in the finals and everyone has Link in the finals except for one person whose pick to come out of that third of the bracket has already been eliminated, so unless Snake wins the whole contest, I'm pretty sure that any finals with both Snake and Charizard in it wins me the Guru.
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#27 | Zylothewolf | Posted 8/29/2013 12:05:45 PM | message detail
I really wish that Mario wasn't in this match. We all know that Mario will win, just like how he always do in close matches.

But at least this shows that he won't be in the finals.
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#28 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/29/2013 12:06:09 PM | message detail
Quick, break out the are you male or female polls
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#29 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/29/2013 12:07:46 PM | message detail
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
Fayt_Esteed posted...
KingBartz posted...
If Vivi could beat Mario, what's stopping Kefka from beating Snake?


His history as a chokemeister.


Love it. Even though Snake appears to be the favorite in R4 among Gurus overall, for some strange reason most of the other people who picked the Charizard > Mario and Samus upset also picked Cloud > Snake. I'm the only live bracket with both Snake and Charizard in the finals and everyone has Link in the finals except for one person whose pick to come out of that third of the bracket has already been eliminated, so unless Snake wins the whole contest, I'm pretty sure that any finals with both Snake and Charizard in it wins me the Guru.


So you support Charizard rally then?
Good!
#30 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/29/2013 12:09:04 PM | message detail
Then00bAvenger posted...
Quick, break out the are you male or female polls


what exactly is the story behind this
#31 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/29/2013 12:09:10 PM | message detail
I can't even fathom the idea of someone counter-rallying for Mario. I mean, I know Kanz is going it doing it, but he's Kanz. You would have to be the most boring person in the world.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#32 | IngmarBirdman | Posted 8/29/2013 12:09:51 PM | message detail
Minus the rally and minus Ganondorf, assuming Mario takes 75% of Ganon's votes, that puts Mario at 65-35 over Vivi.

lol 3-ways.
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... as if rights are like muscles - the more you use it, the better it gets. Indeed he may be exercising his first amendment-- but he's an IDIOT!
- A. Scalia
#33 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/29/2013 12:10:26 PM | message detail
The rally is basically over and Mario still can't put Vivi away. People are really overstating its effects.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#34 | Figgy20000 | Posted 8/29/2013 12:10:39 PM | message detail
Shoenin_Kakashi posted...
Man this was totally Snake's year If Mario is doing this bad.

and that ****** Noxian scumbag is gonna wreck it for him :/


Damnit LoL ***s, why couldn't you get someone good in here, Like Cho'gath? Gentleman Cho'gath winning this wouldve been godtier amazing.


Debonair Jayce would be my pick for league champion, to be honest.
#35 | Gatarix | Posted 8/29/2013 12:11:21 PM | message detail
KamikazePotato posted...
I can't even fathom the idea of someone counter-rallying for Mario. I mean, I know Kanz is going it doing it, but he's Kanz. You would have to be the most boring person in the world.

Seconding this.

c'mon Vivi

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#36 | Whupassman | Posted 8/29/2013 12:11:36 PM | message detail
I'm at the point where I'm willing to hold the door open for people threatening to leave over the results of matches...
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#37 | swordz9 | Posted 8/29/2013 12:11:37 PM | message detail
Still many hours to go, but unless crazy stuff happens I think Vivi will take this in the end even if it's through a last push rally/stuff.
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#38 | Kinglicious | Posted 8/29/2013 12:11:44 PM | message detail
The most boring people in the world complained about missingno yesterday.
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#39 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/29/2013 12:12:19 PM | message detail
Nanis23 posted...
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
Fayt_Esteed posted...
KingBartz posted...
If Vivi could beat Mario, what's stopping Kefka from beating Snake?


His history as a chokemeister.


Love it. Even though Snake appears to be the favorite in R4 among Gurus overall, for some strange reason most of the other people who picked the Charizard > Mario and Samus upset also picked Cloud > Snake. I'm the only live bracket with both Snake and Charizard in the finals and everyone has Link in the finals except for one person whose pick to come out of that third of the bracket has already been eliminated, so unless Snake wins the whole contest, I'm pretty sure that any finals with both Snake and Charizard in it wins me the Guru.


So you support Charizard rally then?
Good!


Hells yeah. Charizard's awesome.
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#40 | xp1337 | Posted 8/29/2013 12:12:47 PM | message detail
swordz9 posted...
Still many hours to go, but unless crazy stuff happens I think Vivi will take this in the end even if it's through a last push rally/stuff.

Mario is the all-time champion at last minute "stuff" though!
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#41 | Kinglicious | Posted 8/29/2013 12:13:12 PM | message detail
Rather, l block.
Missingno will be competiton to them, however.
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#42 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/29/2013 12:14:29 PM | message detail
1337gamerpr0 posted...
Then00bAvenger posted...
Quick, break out the are you male or female polls


what exactly is the story behind this


Mario vs. Crono 2003.

The other major complaint came in the form of people reporting that they had been asked to take part in an "Are you male or female?" poll through various means. Apparently, people went out to spam for Mario votes by asking a trick question among internet sites that were predominantly male-oriented; those reporting that this poll existed said that they were spammed to take it via AIM, e-mail, and most notably there were AOL users claiming that the poll was spammed all over chat rooms. There were also allegations of the poll showing up on various message boards all over the internet, thought I don't remember a link to any such board.

How could such a poll alter the results of a poll on GameFAQs, you ask? The top option was "Male", and the bottom "Female". The top option in Mario/Crono was "Mario", and the bottom "Crono". If such a poll redirected you to vote on GameFAQs upon answering...

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#43 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/29/2013 12:14:42 PM | message detail
Time to play One Winged Angel in Vivi's honor

Estuans Interius
Ira Vehementi
Missingno!
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Congratulations to SuperNiceDog, Guru Winner, who was smart enough to pick
your 7 time champion, Link.
#44 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/29/2013 12:15:48 PM | message detail
#45 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/29/2013 12:16:23 PM | message detail
Wait
I really want to see Black Turtle reaction
I mean he hated FFIX and stupid upsets
Where is he
#46 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/29/2013 12:18:58 PM | message detail
TsunamiXXVIII posted...
Mario vs. Crono 2003.

The other major complaint came in the form of people reporting that they had been asked to take part in an "Are you male or female?" poll through various means. Apparently, people went out to spam for Mario votes by asking a trick question among internet sites that were predominantly male-oriented; those reporting that this poll existed said that they were spammed to take it via AIM, e-mail, and most notably there were AOL users claiming that the poll was spammed all over chat rooms. There were also allegations of the poll showing up on various message boards all over the internet, thought I don't remember a link to any such board.

How could such a poll alter the results of a poll on GameFAQs, you ask? The top option was "Male", and the bottom "Female". The top option in Mario/Crono was "Mario", and the bottom "Crono". If such a poll redirected you to vote on GameFAQs upon answering...


so what you're telling me is
we do this on reddit, where male redirects to Link, female redirects to Shepard, and....neither? redirects to Draven
gg LoL
#47 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/29/2013 12:20:49 PM | message detail
KingBartz posted...
If Vivi could beat Mario, what's stopping Kefka from beating Snake?


There's nobody in the match to leech Snake is the main thing.
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#48 | Qwaar | Posted 8/29/2013 12:22:01 PM | message detail
Considering how close this match is, I'm surprised there aren't many posts...I'm assuming It's due to apathy?
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#49 | AxemRedRanger | Posted 8/29/2013 12:22:18 PM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
Karma Hunter posted...
Also, if Mario loses I'm willing to appeal to Bacon retooling the poll to give us Mario/Crono VII.

If he insists on a 3-way match, throw in MMX. It'll hurt Mario but Crono probably needs that and I'm not sure there's a better option of comparable strength. Unless you can get real fodder in there or something.
MMX and Mario kind of have a rivalry too! MMX got really close to Mario once and relatively close to him twice.

Mario/MMX/Crono the best poll.
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#50 | xp1337 | Posted 8/29/2013 12:23:10 PM | message detail
Qwaar posted...
Considering how close this match is, I'm surprised there aren't many posts...I'm assuming It's due to apathy?

What's there to talk about?

I mean that kind of seriously. >_>
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