Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1135

#1 | OrangeCrush980 | Posted 8/29/2013 9:08:20 AM | message detail
Can Vivi beat Mario?

~*creativename's contest site (all things contest!)*~
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~*The Board 8 Wiki (lots of useful contest and board information, including all past Post-Contest Analysis from Ulti, transience, Ed Bellis and others)*~
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~*List of All Polls (a search bar is at the bottom)*~
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~*NGamer64's Archive Sites (good stuff!) and (LOL) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language)*~
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~*Character Contest Histories*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Category:Contest_Histories

~*Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings*~
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

~*All the Match Pics*~
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/index.php

~*Leonhart4's Trend Charts*~
https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?hl=en&key=tOGmynfNIiNy5VukpEF-PdA&hl=en#gid=0

~*Daily Vote Trends - An Explanation for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Daily_Vote_Trends

~*Acronyms and Percentages for Dummies*~
http://board8.wikia.com/wiki/Acronyms_and_Percentages

~*Say What? Common Stats Topic Lingo Defined*~

SFF (Same Fanbase Factor) - Same Fanbase Factor is the theory that, if two contestants share a common fanbase, the weaker of the two options will underperform in a direct matchup. For instance, Link was expected to defeat Ganon with 65% of the vote in 2004, based on their 2003 values. Instead, Link collected near 88% of the vote. This is the best example of SFF we've ever seen. However take some SFF labels with a grain of salt, as many people will slap it onto any match that doesn't make perfect sense.

Extrapolated Standings - The mathematical "strength" of a contestant that's determined based on their performance relative to the rest of the field. This number is typically based on the contest entrant's loss, but adjustments are sometimes made. See above for a watered down explanation for how the stats are calculated.
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#2 | XIII_rocks | Posted 8/29/2013 9:08:36 AM | message detail
What...the...Vivi?!
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#3 | eaglesarebeasts | Posted 8/29/2013 9:08:47 AM | message detail
#4 | ZFS | Posted 8/29/2013 9:08:57 AM | message detail
So I'm guessing rallies are going to be part of every match here.
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#5 | FFDragon | Posted 8/29/2013 9:09:01 AM | message detail
who was it that said mario had a chance of standing up to draven?

because lol that
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#6 | xp1337 | Posted 8/29/2013 9:09:02 AM | message detail
Come on Ganon, rebound!

if you can just hold up here!
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#7 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/29/2013 9:09:09 AM | message detail
I remember when people got yelled at for making these topics too early.

Now people are just too lazy to make them in general
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
#8 | tgs2 | Posted 8/29/2013 9:09:16 AM | message detail
It's pretty much confirmed now that Zelda characters are Mario's Kryptonite.... besides Sephiroth of course.
#9 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/29/2013 9:09:20 AM | message detail
Mario will win with more than 2000 votes by the end,but this looks so awesome.Imagine if there was Zelda here for example.Vivi would be able to do it!
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#10 | xp1337 | Posted 8/29/2013 9:09:30 AM | message detail
lmfao how is vivi staying here
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#11 | raytan7585 | Posted 8/29/2013 9:09:36 AM | message detail
Wow, Vivi!

Is Mario another Noble Niners to go down?......GOD!!
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#12 | ZFS | Posted 8/29/2013 9:10:01 AM | message detail
xp1337 posted...
lmfao how is vivi staying here


4chan or something.
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#13 | xp1337 | Posted 8/29/2013 9:10:20 AM | message detail
If only this was a night match.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#14 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/29/2013 9:10:26 AM | message detail
I'm surprised it was possible rally against Mario on 4chan, considering that Mario is one of the few characters in which a rally will backfire if you try to rally against Mario. Also, the rally was posted before the match started, which explains Vivi threatening Mario with the board vote.
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#15 | Sorozone | Posted 8/29/2013 9:10:50 AM | message detail
Yea it was a planned rally.
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#16 | Gooper Blooper | Posted 8/29/2013 9:11:46 AM | message detail | (edited)
Decent gain for Mario. I guess The Dark Lord's contributing some serious LFF.

EDIT: Or a rally, that too!
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#17 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/29/2013 9:11:01 AM | message detail
This is just a weak and pathetic /v/ rally that already failed (link posted in previous topic)
Back to business nothing to see here
#18 | Dabrikishaw15 | Posted 8/29/2013 9:11:02 AM | message detail
I'm impressed by Vivi.
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#19 | XIII_rocks | Posted 8/29/2013 9:11:05 AM | message detail
This might be the first time ever I want the FF character to win because this would just be funny
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XIII_rocks, the cream of XIII fanboyism.
#20 | xp1337 | Posted 8/29/2013 9:11:05 AM | message detail
Wait, there's actually a Vivi rally?

That's less fun now!

Granted, it's the only thing that makes any kind of sense, but!
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
GotD (219/384) Melee v FFX
#21 | Brasen | Posted 8/29/2013 9:11:27 AM | message detail
night match and epona replacing ganon?
#22 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/29/2013 9:11:49 AM | message detail
Can people post a reddit rally or something like that for Vivi?
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#23 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/29/2013 9:13:15 AM | message detail
But there was something Kanz did and I believe he should apologize for - even while I consider his "game" cunning and clever,I can totally understand if some people here got offended by his "double agent" behaviour and the harsh words he used to describe this board
This really was underhanded and a stab in the back of the community


From last topic, this was worth singling out. Nanis is right, I should have made it more public, but I didn't: I'm sorry for talking about the board behind its back, guys. It wasn't out of any malice or desire to mock you, nor was it about making this a faction battle between GameFAQS and Reddit. The real explanation is honestly much simpler: I had so many things to think about and do on that day (really, on every day) that it didn't even cross my mind to come out and explain myself. When Solfadore made his own topic, I wanted to answer, but, well, mod pockets are a 10-0 matchup against a guy with no influence beyond his ability to rile up a crowd without even really trying to. So I figure I might as well say it here, while we're on the first page and everyone can see: Sorry for starting drama up. Wasn't my intention, I promise.
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#24 | BK_Sheikah00 | Posted 8/29/2013 9:13:52 AM | message detail
All part of the plan.

Vivi/Squall/Red.

Pokemon domination once again!
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#25 | Scarlettail | Posted 8/29/2013 9:13:58 AM | message detail
Beat Mario, and you're just opening the door for Red to win the division.
#26 | KingBartz | Posted 8/29/2013 9:14:18 AM | message detail
yeah whatever Kanz

your name is s*** forever man
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#27 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/29/2013 9:14:49 AM | message detail
Also if Vivi is getting rallied, I'm drawing the line and going straight to r/gaming to put a topic for Mario up. I was going to try it for Squall, but I'm not letting 4chan do its nonsense on my watch. Be ready to click on it and upvote once it's set up.
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Bearer of the Mark of Kan.
#28 | Averia | Posted 8/29/2013 9:15:09 AM | message detail
Vivi is actually holding for now.
#29 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/29/2013 9:15:20 AM | message detail
Updated Top 10

Top 10 Most Popular Night Polls
1. Draven vs. Mega Man X vs. Ryu – Round 2 – 84778
2. Draven vs. Jak vs. Chie Satonaka – Round 1 – 39737
3. Yoshi vs. Solaire of Astora vs. Demi-Fiend – Round 1 – 30487
4. Tharja vs. Tiny Tina vs. Juliet Starling – Round 1 – 30420
5. Link vs. Isaac vs. Tingle – Round 1 – 28930
6. Missingno vs. Tidus vs. Banjo – Round 1 – 28503
7. Alucard vs. Captain Falcon vs. Rydia – Round 1 – 28202
8. Sephiroth vs. Midna vs. Little Mac – Round 1 – 28199
9. Tifa Lockheart vs. Chun-Li vs. Cirno – Round 1 – 28140
10. Tifa Lockheart vs. Dragonborn vs. Yuna – Round 2 – 28034

Top 10 Least Predictable Matches
1. Draven vs. Mega Man X vs. Ryu – Round 2 – 9.20%
2. Pokemon Trainer Blue vs. Nathan Drake vs. Mr. Game & Watch – Round 2 – 14.27%
3. Yuna vs. Master Chief vs. Claire Redfield – Round 1 – 15.40%
4. Tifa Lockheart vs. Dragonborn vs. Yuna – Round 2 – 19.97%
5. Kefka vs. Altair vs. Lara Croft – Round 2 – 22.13%
6. Squirtle vs. Dante vs. Zidane Tribal – Round 2 – 22.27%
7. Urdnot Wrex vs. Cecil Harvey vs. Pit – Round 1 – 23.71%
8. L-Block vs. Auron vs. Ezio Auditore da Firenze – Round 2 – 24.86%
9. Mr. Game & Watch vs. Lee Everett vs. Meat Boy – Round 1 – 26.40%
10. Leon Kennedy vs. Gordon Freeman vs. Shadow the Hedgehog – Round 2 – 28.26%
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 104/141 Today's Picks: Tifa Lockheart and Mario
#30 | XIII_rocks | Posted 8/29/2013 9:15:28 AM | message detail
VIVI HELD FIRM. TIE UPDATE.

YES GO VIVI
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#31 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/29/2013 9:15:29 AM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Be ready to click on it and upvote once it's set up.


You mean downvote
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
#32 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/29/2013 9:15:52 AM | message detail
yeah whatever Kanz

your name is s*** forever man


And? This is just me setting the record clear. I'm not trying to win anybody over here, just doing something should've done six days ago, but couldn't.
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#33 | ZFS | Posted 8/29/2013 9:16:02 AM | message detail
Definitely up vote because 4chan Vivi no thank you
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#34 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/29/2013 9:16:35 AM | message detail
-LusterSoldier- posted...
I'm surprised it was possible rally against Mario on 4chan, considering that Mario is one of the few characters in which a rally will backfire if you try to rally against Mario. Also, the rally was posted before the match started, which explains Vivi threatening Mario with the board vote.


I'm not really sure if that would be the case anymore. Nintendo whores out Mario so much now.
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#35 | pirate109 | Posted 8/29/2013 9:16:46 AM | message detail
Jesus. Looks like we're set for rallies in every match to screw my oracle/spread bet lol. I don't blame them, though. All Allen has to do is make the poll visible on every page of the site and we wouldn't have such pathetic vote totals from gamefaqs users. Rallies are only having such a large effect because of this incompetence. -_-
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#36 | Masato_Tanaka | Posted 8/29/2013 9:16:53 AM | message detail
Holy **** wtf Vivi where did this come from
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#37 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/29/2013 9:16:58 AM | message detail
You mean downvote


If you want to let 4chan think it can manipulate the results, by all means. Me, I'm gonna go and get things done.
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Bearer of the Mark of Kan.
#38 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/29/2013 9:17:14 AM | message detail
Whoa, Mario's only up 32 votes 15 minutes in? With natural trends favoring Vivi for the rest of the poll?

Let's do this Vivi.
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#39 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/29/2013 9:17:37 AM | message detail
I just checked the poll.

WHAT THE **** IS GOING ON?
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#40 | ZinsanityCraze | Posted 8/29/2013 9:17:46 AM | message detail
I was arguing in Mario's favor earlier that he could take out the weaker Cloud/Sephiroth, i think i have my reservation now.

Mario you suck.
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#41 | Nanis23 | Posted 8/29/2013 9:18:10 AM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
Also if Vivi is getting rallied, I'm drawing the line and going straight to r/gaming to put a topic for Mario up. I was going to try it for Squall, but I'm not letting 4chan do its nonsense on my watch. Be ready to click on it and upvote once it's set up.


Do it
Im going to upvote it
Of course it might be the first sign of a "4chan vs reddit rallywar" but let's do it
#42 | nintendogirl2 | Posted 8/29/2013 9:18:13 AM | message detail
Just have every single page on the site unaccessable unless you vote in the poll which appears as an obnoxious flashing pop-up.
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#43 | LinkMarioSamus | Posted 8/29/2013 9:18:15 AM | message detail
Samus > Mario confirmed.
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#44 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/29/2013 9:18:20 AM | message detail
KanzarisKelshen posted...
If you want to let 4chan think it can manipulate the results, by all means. Me, I'm gonna go and get things done.


Can't have those nasty 4channers thinking they can manipulate results, better go to reddit and show how they can manipulate results instead.
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A refusal of praise is a desire to be praised twice.
#45 | Safer_777 | Posted 8/29/2013 9:18:38 AM | message detail
Okay there is a rally for Vivi going on apparently.But it is Mario!How can you rally against him?I mean everybody knows him!I know that Vivi has the appearance of a black mage and everyone knows black mages but still.If Vivi ends the match with less than 2000 votes difference behind Mario that would be awesome.
Also make rallies for Vivi please!
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#46 | ZFS | Posted 8/29/2013 9:18:48 AM | message detail
Link sux Mario sux FFVII sux Zelda sux welcome to League of Pokemon
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tune in tokyo 142.94
#47 | superange128 | Posted 8/29/2013 9:18:58 AM | message detail
man why couldn't Terra beat Kirby this way lol
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#48 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/29/2013 9:19:34 AM | message detail
Okay there is a rally for Vivi going on apparently.But it is Mario!How can you rally against him?I mean everybody knows him!I know that Vivi has the appearance of a black mage and everyone knows black mages but still.If Vivi ends the match with less than 2000 votes difference behind Mario that would be awesome.
Also make rallies for Vivi please!


Because Mario is not immune to rallies
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 104/141 Today's Picks: Tifa Lockheart and Mario
#49 | Ultimaphazon | Posted 8/29/2013 9:19:40 AM | message detail
Vivi > Mario would be the best result these contests have ever had. It's not going to happen, but I would love it.
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#50 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/29/2013 9:20:44 AM | message detail

Can't have those nasty 4channers thinking they can manipulate results, better go to reddit and show how they can manipulate results instead.


Board 8 being the contest illuminati works better for me than 4chan chaos, yup!

Also, rally topic up in a second!
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Bearer of the Mark of Kan.