Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1134

#351 | vcharon | Posted 8/28/2013 9:52:45 PM | message detail
Yuna cuts.

I think it's an outlier though... awful update for Dragonborn
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#352 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/28/2013 9:54:02 PM | message detail
2007 L-Block cannot beat Draven. Even looking at its absolute peak in the 2007 finals, it simply doesn't have the raw votes. Draven winning the contest is still a lock.
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#353 | creativename | Posted 8/28/2013 9:54:24 PM | message detail
Does Fus Doh Rah translate to anything, or is it just...Fus Doh Rah?
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#354 | vcharon | Posted 8/28/2013 9:54:36 PM | message detail
I'd rather just let Draven win if L-Block has to be our "hero".
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#355 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2013 9:54:41 PM | message detail
#356 | TheCodeisBosco | Posted 8/28/2013 9:55:04 PM | message detail
That final L-Block hour is terrifying. Talk about throwing down a gauntlet.

On a side note, something I just thought of regarding Link/Draven. Whenever a GameFAQs poll is linked to on Reddit, the thumbnail pic is always of option #1. This really worked to Draven's advantage this round, because he was the first option in his poll, and was thus pictured next to the Reddit rally. But in R3? It's the guy in green who's the first option.

Food for thought.
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#357 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/28/2013 9:55:29 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
Does Fus Doh Rah translate to anything, or is it just...Fus Doh Rah?


Fus Ro Dah, and it's a series of magic syllables. You chain them in the right order and you produce an effect, in the case of that spell, a supersonic scream.
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#358 | FFDragon | Posted 8/28/2013 9:56:52 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
Does Fus Doh Rah translate to anything, or is it just...Fus Doh Rah?


Force Balance Push
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#359 | CP724 | Posted 8/28/2013 9:57:06 PM | message detail
FUS RO DAH is probably doubling dragonborns strength
#360 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/28/2013 9:57:07 PM | message detail
TheCodeisBosco posted...
That final L-Block hour is terrifying. Talk about throwing down a gauntlet.

On a side note, something I just thought of regarding Link/Draven. Whenever a GameFAQs poll is linked to on Reddit, the thumbnail pic is always of option #1. This really worked to Draven's advantage this round, because he was the first option in his poll, and was thus pictured next to the Reddit rally. But in R3? It's the guy in green who's the first option.

Food for thought.


well.....I'm not sure that helps much with Link of all people
and uh, does Draven return to the first slot if he beats Link
uh oh
#361 | creativename | Posted 8/28/2013 9:57:18 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
2007 L-Block cannot beat Draven. Even looking at its absolute peak in the 2007 finals, it simply doesn't have the raw votes. Draven winning the contest is still a lock.

Pre-contest, Draven not winning was even more of a lock than him winning is.

He's clearly the heavy favorite but it's not a lock. Whether these rally threads catch on or not probably has some randomness to it.

Also if Mario makes it to the final he could put a hitch in things, due to "It's friggin' Mario!" factor.

L-Block could too for that matter.
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#362 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/28/2013 9:57:33 PM | message detail
TheCodeisBosco posted...
That final L-Block hour is terrifying. Talk about throwing down a gauntlet.

On a side note, something I just thought of regarding Link/Draven. Whenever a GameFAQs poll is linked to on Reddit, the thumbnail pic is always of option #1. This really worked to Draven's advantage this round, because he was the first option in his poll, and was thus pictured next to the Reddit rally. But in R3? It's the guy in green who's the first option.

Food for thought.


The way that was worked around in yesterday's match was to post an image of the 4chan rally topic, and then the second comment in the topic was the link to the poll. People have already accounted for this.
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#363 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/28/2013 9:57:57 PM | message detail
Sorry to bring up this topic again but this is the second time it has come up and I missed the discussion both time. Mario didn't resist Valve's rally. There was no rally to begin with. Valve didn't rally for Gordon Freeman against Mario.
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#364 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2013 9:58:29 PM | message detail
Team Rocket Elite posted...
Sorry to bring up this topic again but this is the second time it has come up and I missed the discussion both time. Mario didn't resist Valve's rally. There was no rally to begin with. Valve didn't rally for Gordon Freeman against Mario.


DESTROYED
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#365 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/28/2013 9:58:31 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
Pre-contest, Draven not winning was even more of a lock than him winning is.

He's clearly the heavy favorite but it's not a lock. Whether these rally threads catch on or not probably has some randomness to it.

Also if Mario makes it to the final he could put a hitch in things, due to "It's friggin' Mario!" factor.

L-Block could too for that matter.


"hey guys let's rally for Draven against L-Block, THAT'LL SHOW THOSE SILLY GAMEFAQS USERS WHAT'S UP"
wait....
#366 | -hotdogturtle-- | Posted 8/28/2013 10:01:20 PM | message detail
From: creativename | #361
He's clearly the heavy favorite but it's not a lock. Whether these rally threads catch on or not probably has some randomness to it.

How can they rally for the first 2 rounds, getting more Draven votes than the other matches had total votes, and then not touch him for the end?
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#367 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/28/2013 10:01:31 PM | message detail
Team Rocket Elite posted...
Sorry to bring up this topic again but this is the second time it has come up and I missed the discussion both time. Mario didn't resist Valve's rally. There was no rally to begin with. Valve didn't rally for Gordon Freeman against Mario.


No? Interesting. That's a ridiculous amount of carryover. A rally-less match pulling in the same amount as a rallied one? Hmm. Food for thought...I have to percolate on this.
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#368 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/28/2013 10:05:39 PM | message detail | (edited)
On the note of Draven 'only' getting roughly 2/3rds of the rallied votes in Draven/Ryu/MMX... that statistic is accurate. But you can't compare it to the other tests we've had - those were 1v1s, which is an obviously more limited option. Assuming the other third of reddit votes went to Ryu and MMX in equal measure, that means Draven was favored over each of them in a proportion of more like 75/25.

Edit: And the proportion almost certainly holds just as true for Ezio/Auron/L-Block. L-Block probably didn't get 80% of the total rallied votes by a longshot - but compared to either of his opponents individually he did.
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#369 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/28/2013 10:02:50 PM | message detail
-hotdogturtle-- posted...
From: creativename | #361
He's clearly the heavy favorite but it's not a lock. Whether these rally threads catch on or not probably has some randomness to it.

How can they rally for the first 2 rounds, getting more Draven votes than the other matches had total votes, and then not touch him for the end?


one of them can screw with everyone by not rallying Draven to steal first in expert challenge as he falls down to 3rd place
not likely, but possible
#370 | Polycosm | Posted 8/28/2013 10:03:54 PM | message detail
What the heck... how am I back on the expert challenge leaderboard? I've been boning it all throughout round 2, I was eliminated from guru, and I didn't even make picks for Auron versus L-Block because I couldn't settle on first and second place...

I mean, I'm still only playing against Allen at this point, but wow. And if Dragonborn pulls off second, I might stay up for more than a day this time!
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#371 | creativename | Posted 8/28/2013 10:04:28 PM | message detail
FFDragon posted...
creativename posted...
Does Fus Doh Rah translate to anything, or is it just...Fus Doh Rah?


Force Balance Push

Interesting. Thanks.

1337gamerpr0 posted...
"hey guys let's rally for Draven against L-Block, THAT'LL SHOW THOSE SILLY GAMEFAQS USERS WHAT'S UP"
wait....

Yeah, L-Block is probably the worst matchup for Draven. The whole internet united behind the block last time.

-hotdogturtle-- posted...
How can they rally for the first 2 rounds, getting more Draven votes than the other matches had total votes, and then not touch him for the end?

Oh of course they would try. But there definitely seems to be a pretty significant randomness factor as to what catches on at Reddit. Just because it caught on before doesn't ensure it will happen again.

Of course it probably will happen again, but it's no lock.
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#372 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2013 10:06:13 PM | message detail
If L-Block makes it to the final, that'll make the third multi-way final out of four where I've voted for the last place entrant!

Which means I'll have voted for Snake three times out of four (and FFX the other)!
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#373 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/28/2013 10:08:13 PM | message detail
And it should obviously go without saying that if L-Block hulks up enough to beat Samus, weaklings like Mario and Charizard aren't going to stand in its way. It's going to the finals in that case.
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#374 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/28/2013 10:09:23 PM | message detail
Heh wow, we're discussing L-Block in the finals now. This 3way contest is turning into much more of a clusterf*** than any 4way bracket we ever had.
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#375 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2013 10:10:16 PM | message detail
Darn it guys this matching sigs thing has got to go
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#376 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/28/2013 10:11:35 PM | message detail
counteroffer Leon why don't you change your sig to be like ours instead

one of us one of us
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#377 | ChenKenichiFan | Posted 8/28/2013 10:11:50 PM | message detail
My friends, I present one of the master's greatest battles:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Z9E6WOaQiA
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#378 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/28/2013 10:12:03 PM | message detail
ChenKenichiFan posted...
Heh wow, we're discussing L-Block in the finals now. This 3way contest is turning into much more of a clusterf*** than any 4way bracket we ever had.


Is anybody surprised? 4ways were infinitely more fair because there was a chance for a double screwjob to even out odds in scenarios such as this one. 3ways don't even have that.
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#379 | WhiteLens | Posted 8/28/2013 10:15:14 PM | message detail
Polycosm posted...
What the heck... how am I back on the expert challenge leaderboard? I've been boning it all throughout round 2, I was eliminated from guru, and I didn't even make picks for Auron versus L-Block because I couldn't settle on first and second place...

I mean, I'm still only playing against Allen at this point, but wow. And if Dragonborn pulls off second, I might stay up for more than a day this time!


You see, you actually gained points because of that. A lot of people lost points because they had Auron > L-Block. In fact my alt actually went up 2 spots just for having Ezio in 3rd, despite having Auron > L-Block.

Though I'm probably gonna fall off since I have Yuna in 2nd and Dragonborn in 3rd. Was hoping for an upset but it didn't pan out.
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#380 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/28/2013 10:16:13 PM | message detail
It's also looking like even relative afterthoughts of rallies (like yesterday's) are potent enough to constitute as much as 15% of our total votes, looking at the final votal mark. That's a seismic influence - easily enough to determine the winner of any match short of a blowout.
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#381 | Dabrikishaw15 | Posted 8/28/2013 10:20:11 PM | message detail
Looks like things aren't changing.
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#382 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/28/2013 10:39:27 PM | message detail
Whoa, look at that L-Block rally. Draven, consider the gauntlet thrown. Or.....whatever a tetris piece uses as gloves.
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#383 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/28/2013 10:43:19 PM | message detail
Also, I think 2007 peak L-Block can beat Draven from this round. He got 65,000 votes- but that was against Link, Cloud, and Snake. Against Draven and a character of no consequence (Sorry, Snake, you get to play this part a second time), it'll be a lot more. Like, 100k+. Enough to match Draven considering the Draven rally was losing steam at the end last match.
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#384 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/28/2013 11:01:10 PM | message detail
Snake will be, fairly or not, perceived as the sole 'legitimate' option by many voters in a Draven/Snake/L-Block final. That doesn't mean he'd do anything resembling 'well', but it's more or less impossible for him to fold like he did back in '07.
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#385 | creativename | Posted 8/28/2013 11:04:49 PM | message detail
Funny how many hero/villain turns L-Block has done.

He started off as the lovable underdog, then morphed into the very divisive champ. Then he went full heel during the Save_us.rat phase.

Then he kinda laid low, outside the main event picture, jobbing easily to the Zard.

Now he's back and might be the site's best hope against the complete outsider in Draven. So...Save_us.block now?

He's like Ric Flair, bouncing around from face to heel and back again all the time.
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#386 | ZFS | Posted 8/28/2013 11:06:51 PM | message detail
L-Block would be better than Draven, for sure.

I wouldn't be opposed to some crazy Anti-Rally Mario win either! Absorb those Draven rally votes
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#387 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2013 11:07:42 PM | message detail
L-Block is still a heel. It would just be a heel vs. heel championship if it's the Block vs. Draven.
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#388 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/28/2013 11:11:05 PM | message detail
L-Block winning has the added benefit that we don't have to see a serious character winning a contest when Link does not. That is forbidden by the LAW.

*runs*
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#389 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2013 11:12:11 PM | message detail
Although possibly one benefit of L-Block winning is that it'd be more likely that Reddit will just leave our contests alone from now on.

Maybe. I dunno if it'd make them more determined or less.
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#390 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/28/2013 11:15:41 PM | message detail
L-Block is never ever winning, seriously. Let's get that outta here, not even /r/ has the ability to get it done against Samus and later Mario.
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#391 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/28/2013 11:17:43 PM | message detail
If L-Block just maintains what he did today, he's looking at 40-45% on Mario/Samus. He doesn't even need a huge boost to beat them.
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#392 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/28/2013 11:19:30 PM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
If L-Block just maintains what he did today, he's looking at 40-45% on Mario/Samus. He doesn't even need a huge boost to beat them.


Yes, but I don't think he can do it. Call it a hunch, or maybe faith.
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#393 | -LusterSoldier- | Posted 8/28/2013 11:20:52 PM | message detail
In this format, L-Block doesn't even need 50% of the votes to advance to the next round. About 40% of the votes would be enough to get past Samus if Tifa doesn't collapse.
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#394 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/28/2013 11:20:52 PM | message detail
You just don't like L-Block! That's the only explanation, when you continually tell us about how upsets that are actually almost completely impossible are possible if we just try harder.
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#395 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/28/2013 11:23:55 PM | message detail
red sox 777 posted...
You just don't like L-Block! That's the only explanation, when you continually tell us about how upsets that are actually almost completely impossible are possible if we just try harder.


I was one of, at most, ten people who got the most powerful contest by this topic's admission and you're trying to tell me about impossibles?
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#396 | red sox 777 | Posted 8/28/2013 11:26:08 PM | message detail
Yeah. I don't recall saying Draven winning was impossible either. In fact, I've maintained for years that the probability of Link losing a given contest is closer to 25% than the 1% people often quote in this topic.
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#397 | DoctorJimmy133 | Posted 8/28/2013 11:32:34 PM | message detail
I guess the reason Guybrush hasn't won a single match is that his fans just don't care. They can do it if they try! Nothing is impossible!
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#398 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/28/2013 11:35:01 PM | message detail
You can say you thought it wasn't impossible, but absolutely nobody (nobody) took it seriously until Draven/Ryu/X happened. Can't apply revisionist history here - I count something like four or five stats topics marks who thought lightning could strike more than once (Such as Axem). After doing an important share of the work to get Draven going, I've got a new perspective on contests now. If you want something to happen, and you work hard enough to make it happen, it will happen. There are limits to it, but they don't apply to the rivals L-Block is going to face before the finals. I want Samus first and Mario second to beat him and beat him down. If that means taking action, I'll do it. I've spent my time on much less worthwhile pursuits before.
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#399 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/28/2013 11:37:12 PM | message detail
DoctorJimmy133 posted...
I guess the reason Guybrush hasn't won a single match is that his fans just don't care. They can do it if they try! Nothing is impossible!


I'm honestly curious about what Guybrush could do if his fans were contest savvy enough and hungry enough to do more than nominate him. He comes from an era where PC gaming was a complete zero on GameFAQS, but PC games have been on the rise for a long time and Guybrush has new releases coming out often now, plus people do have very fond memories of LucasArts' golden age. He couldn't challenge Link or anything, but I do wonder if he couldn't move from turbofodder to high fodder at the least.
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#400 | _SecretSquirrel | Posted 8/28/2013 11:39:08 PM | message detail
L-Block with a Frog hour, I see.
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