Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 1134

#301 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2013 9:11:48 PM | message detail
Hmm...Tifa looks safe barring a rally.
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#302 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/28/2013 9:12:09 PM | message detail
People are rallying on reddit for every other match of import. Why on earth shouldn't we try to get a reddit rally going in every match from here on out? Nobody should be dense enough to require any explanations here, really.
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#303 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/28/2013 9:12:13 PM | message detail
Tom Nook > Master Chief in the x-stats.

Let's do this.
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#304 | -hotdogturtle-- | Posted 8/28/2013 9:12:20 PM | message detail
From: CP724 | #300
Why has yuna got no top on?

And yet she still can't even break into 2nd place...
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#305 | spooky96 | Posted 8/28/2013 9:12:44 PM | message detail
99

Don't pull away dragonborn
#306 | swordz9 | Posted 8/28/2013 9:13:09 PM | message detail
Tifa's barely 2nd best girl in her own game. She might not even make top 10 girls in the series for me, but who knows I haven't really bothered to think much about it.
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#307 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2013 9:13:19 PM | message detail
CrushDavis posted...
She isn't facing Rikku though


No.

No, she isn't.
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"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
#308 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/28/2013 9:13:23 PM | message detail
And Dragonborn takes advantage of the split. Next!
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#309 | Team Rocket Elite (Moderator) | Posted 8/28/2013 9:13:40 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
125----1------------0.00
124----0------------0.00
123----0------------0.00
122----0------------0.00
121----1------------0.00
120----1------------100.00
119----7------------14.29
118----5------------20.00
117----8------------12.50
116----10----------0.00
115----20----------25.00
114----29----------6.90
113----57----------17.54
112----53----------9.43
111----62----------16.13
110----68----------20.59
109----69----------18.84
108----84----------13.10
107----81----------27.16
106----96----------21.88
105----91----------25.27
104----115--------31.30
103----151--------37.75
102----139--------36.69
101----161--------39.13
100----179--------33.52
99------211--------36.49
98------261--------32.57
97------313--------34.50
96------332--------37.95
95------370--------28.38
94------392--------30.36
93------416--------33.89
92------446--------33.86
91------479--------33.82
90------485--------31.75
89------494--------29.35
88------498--------31.12
87------481--------27.03
86------497--------29.98
85------469--------29.64
84------449--------24.72
83------472--------25.64
82------405--------25.43
81------379--------23.22
80------368--------23.10
79------358--------26.54
78------341--------25.51
77------302--------21.85
76------321--------24.92
75------292--------22.26
74------229--------25.33
73------232--------15.09
72------257--------22.18
71------201--------17.91
70------186--------14.52
69------163--------18.40
68------160--------13.75
67------154--------11.04
66------170--------8.24
65------142--------16.90
64------153--------13.07
63------159--------8.81
62------124--------11.29
61------123--------10.57
60------128--------14.84
59------95----------6.32
58------83----------14.46
57------110--------12.73
56------73----------9.59
55------90----------7.78
54------73----------12.33
53------76----------13.16
52------62----------9.68
51------57----------14.04
50------44----------6.82
49------50----------20.00
48------50----------4.00
47------51----------7.84
46------47----------10.64
45------37----------13.51
44------36----------13.89
43------38----------10.53
42------25----------8.00
41------24----------4.17
40------27----------11.11
39------27----------3.70
38------16----------25.00
37------14----------21.43
36------12----------0.00
35------16----------0.00
34------13----------0.00
33------11----------9.09
32------6------------0.00
31------8------------12.50
...
28------5------------20.00
...
24------3------------33.33
23------5------------20.00
...
20------2------------50.00
...
9--------1------------100.00

Omitted scores got it wrong.

Top tiers got wrecked. 166 of the top 192 got the match wrong. L-Block actually had the support of some of the middle tier brackets so their get prediction percentages as high as the 30s. Contest knowledge seemed to work against you here.

12 people fell off the Top 49. Azp2k32, BK_Sheikah00, ForwardArrow, JeezyMiyagi, Jobi1, Karma_Hunter, Palinchron, POOTERSS, Prometheus89, Runemistress, TheOceIot and Therobbieg did not have L-Block winning.

29 people got it wrong and survived. Current first place SuorGenoveffa, former second place CarveyFAQs, ChenKenichiFan, dimi161, ecksgem, Eikei, Greenmonkey034, strikerkid, Colegreen_c12, EdBellis, fpce666, Kirbydamasta, ahirsch101, arelian, InvisibleOmega, KingLionel, SoraLink2649, wakeuptogashi, ZenOfThunder, Astro1446, Billy_Gates, Djungelurban, foxhead84, LordoftheMorons, mathmagus37, Ngamer64, Pirate109, speed_foxhead and Xcarvenger also did not have L-Block winning.
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Pokemon VGC2013 Worlds LCQ - Top 32
#310 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2013 9:13:51 PM | message detail
swordz9 posted...
Tifa's barely 2nd best girl in her own game. She might not even make top 10 girls in the series for me, but who knows I haven't really bothered to think much about it.


yeah but you like Yuffie your opinions can't be trusted
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#311 | KamikazePotato | Posted 8/28/2013 9:13:51 PM | message detail
Yuna is really the only girl in the series worth talking about.
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Black Turtle did a pretty good job.
#312 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/28/2013 9:15:08 PM | message detail
Updated Top 10

Top 10 Most Popular Day Polls
1. L-Block vs. Auron vs. Ezio Auditore da Firenze – Round 2 – 38692
2. Raiden vs. Waluigi vs. Alan Wake – Round 1 – 37721
3. Commander Shepard vs. Aerith Gainsborough vs. Tharja – Round 2 – 36597
4. Big Boss vs. Luigi vs. Ness – Round 2 – 34223
5. Sonic the Hedgehog vs. Barret Wallace vs. Dracula – Round 2 – 34205
6. Barret Wallace vs. Professor Layton vs. Reimu Hakurei – Round 1 – 33945
7. Commander Shepard vs. Captain Olimar vs. Kain – Round 1 – 33313
8. Squirtle vs. Dante vs. Zidane Tribal – Round 2 – 33260
9. Yuna vs. Master Chief vs. Claire Redfield – Round 1 – 32792
10. Ryu vs. Yuri Lowell vs. Face McShooty – Round 1 – 32704

Top 10 Most Impressive Day Losers
1. Waluigi – Round 1 – 14794
2. Luigi – Round 2 – 14638
3. Aerith Gainsborough – Round 2 – 14507
4. Auron – Round 2 – 14319
5. Fox McCloud – Round 1 – 13207
6. Ridley – Round 1 – 13037
7. Crono – Round 2 – 13024
8. Terra Branford – Round 1 – 11893
9. ? Block – Round 1 – 11714
10. Neku Sakuraba – Round 1 – 11493

Top 10 Least Predictable Matches
1. Draven vs. Mega Man X vs. Ryu – Round 2 – 9.20%
2. Pokemon Trainer Blue vs. Nathan Drake vs. Mr. Game & Watch – Round 2 – 14.27%
3. Yuna vs. Master Chief vs. Claire Redfield – Round 1 – 15.40%
4. Kefka vs. Altair vs. Lara Croft – Round 2 – 22.13%
5. Squirtle vs. Dante vs. Zidane Tribal – Round 2 – 22.27%
6. Urdnot Wrex vs. Cecil Harvey vs. Pit – Round 1 – 23.71%
7. L-Block vs. Auron vs. Ezio Auditore da Firenze – Round 2 – 24.86%
8. Mr. Game & Watch vs. Lee Everett vs. Meat Boy – Round 1 – 26.40%
9. Leon Kennedy vs. Gordon Freeman vs. Shadow the Hedgehog – Round 2 – 28.26%
10. Catherine vs. Neku Sakaruba vs. Vaas Montenegro – Round 1 – 30.43%
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 104/141 Today's Picks: Tifa Lockheart and Mario
#313 | swordz9 | Posted 8/28/2013 9:15:54 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
swordz9 posted...
Tifa's barely 2nd best girl in her own game. She might not even make top 10 girls in the series for me, but who knows I haven't really bothered to think much about it.


yeah but you like Yuffie your opinions can't be trusted

Yuffie's great for comedy. The characters I like most in that game are the ones with the funniest dialogue. Tifa's just kind of boring to me.
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#314 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/28/2013 9:16:40 PM | message detail
Yuna stalling
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 104/141 Today's Picks: Tifa Lockheart and Mario
#315 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2013 9:16:54 PM | message detail
#316 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/28/2013 9:17:58 PM | message detail
Ooh, Dragonborn dropped almost a whole percent.
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#317 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2013 9:18:05 PM | message detail
Also, Yuna's holding up to Tifa pretty well.

37.5% here compared to the 41.5% she got on Zack in 2010.
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#318 | Qwaar | Posted 8/28/2013 9:18:13 PM | message detail
Come on DB, shout that pretender down. Keep her at bay.
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#319 | pjbasis | Posted 8/28/2013 9:18:50 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
37.5% here compared to the 41.5% she got on Zack in 2010.


So what does Kefka get on Tifa
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#320 | charmander6000 | Posted 8/28/2013 9:19:33 PM | message detail
Also, Yuna's holding up to Tifa pretty well.

37.5% here compared to the 41.5% she got on Zack in 2010.


Yeah, if she hasn't dropped like the rest of FFVII I'd say Yuna is barely getting hit.
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BOP Results: http://www.freewebs.com/charmander6000/CB9%20BOP.xls
Points: 104/141 Today's Picks: Tifa Lockheart and Mario
#321 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2013 9:20:26 PM | message detail
pjbasis posted...
LeonhartFour posted...
37.5% here compared to the 41.5% she got on Zack in 2010.


So what does Kefka get on Tifa


Assuming a constant Zack (LOL), 49.02%
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#322 | SnoicFactor | Posted 8/28/2013 9:20:29 PM | message detail
So is Tifa > Sephiroth now? haha
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nt
#323 | TsunamiXXVIII | Posted 8/28/2013 9:21:37 PM | message detail
Barely any rise. Yuna's got this.
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#324 | Then00bAvenger | Posted 8/28/2013 9:22:17 PM | message detail | (edited)
If Yuna can keep it close within the next couple hours she might be able to do some damage over night. I think it's probably out of range though
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#325 | TheKoolAidShoto | Posted 8/28/2013 9:22:19 PM | message detail
RIP Yuna
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#326 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2013 9:22:21 PM | message detail
Tifa killin' it now.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
#327 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2013 9:25:18 PM | message detail
Although if you're a Samus supporter, Dragonborn getting rallied past Tifa is much better for her chances of beating L-Block, so there ya go...!
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#328 | WhiteLens | Posted 8/28/2013 9:26:49 PM | message detail
And here I was thinking that the FF fanbase was split enough that SFF wouldn't impact Yuna as much...guess not.
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#329 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2013 9:27:26 PM | message detail
Yeah, Yuna's done now.
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"But you have been given freedom. Freedom to be...outside."
"I am lightning...the rain transformed."
#330 | CP724 | Posted 8/28/2013 9:28:22 PM | message detail
FUS RO DAH. gg
#331 | creativename | Posted 8/28/2013 9:29:42 PM | message detail
This appears to be more LFF than SFF...Yuna is holding up well, but both girls are really hurting each other.

Given his favorable setup, maybe Bacon thought Dragonborn was a Pokemon >_>
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#332 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2013 9:30:12 PM | message detail
Trend chart:

Time | Ezio | Auron | L-Block | Votes
0:05 | 23.02% | 40.63% | 33.81% | 630
1:00 | 22.84% | 38.62% | 38.54% | 5324
2:00 | 22.21% | 37.87% | 39.92% | 4254
3:00 | 24.01% | 39.12% | 36.88% | 3574
4:00 | 23.18% | 39.12% | 37.70% | 3507
5:00 | 22.26% | 36.01% | 41.72% | 3432
6:00 | 22.39% | 37.80% | 39.81% | 3198
7:00 | 20.77% | 37.13% | 42.10% | 3057
8:00 | 23.90% | 37.12% | 38.98% | 2678
9:00 | 20.59% | 37.43% | 41.98% | 2394
10:00 | 20.91% | 35.87% | 43.23% | 2406
11:00 | 19.83% | 33.44% | 46.73% | 2416
12:00 | 18.39% | 30.22% | 51.39% | 2452

Bizarro L-Block at work, although wouldn't that technically make it an R-Block...?

X-Stats:

L-Block – 50.00%
Auron – 47.45%
Revolver Ocelot – 39.80%
Ezio Auditore da Firenze – 34.93%
Palutena – 30.67%
Roxas – 30.46%
Miles “Tails” Prower – 28.41%
Bomberman – 23.65%
Teemo – 17.02%

L-Block's prediction percentage was 24.86%
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#333 | lightsout06 | Posted 8/28/2013 9:32:42 PM | message detail
Was there a rally for L-Block? That match had a pretty high vote total compared to the others.
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#334 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2013 9:33:53 PM | message detail
Current X-Stats:

Tifa Lockhart – 50.00%
Dragonborn – 41.23%
Yuna – 36.86%
Master Chief – 34.10%
Tom Nook – 34.09%
Pyramid Head – 32.73%
Chun-Li – 30.16%
Claire Redfield – 27.90%
Cirno – 15.59%


Looks like Tom Nook/Master Chief would be a real barnburner...!
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#335 | creativename | Posted 8/28/2013 9:34:03 PM | message detail
Almost 39K votes for the last match, damn. That was one helluva L-Block rally.

LeonhartFour posted...
Trend chart:

Time | Ezio | Auron | L-Block | Votes
11:00 | 19.83% | 33.44% | 46.73% | 2416
12:00 | 18.39% | 30.22% | 51.39% | 2452

Bizarro L-Block at work

Wowza.

Yeah, Samus should be at least mildly concerned here. Good thing for her this site loves Nintendo much more than FF, she should be harder to rally against than Auron.
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#336 | creativename | Posted 8/28/2013 9:35:26 PM | message detail
LeonhartFour posted...
Master Chief – 34.10%
Tom Nook – 34.09%

Looks like Tom Nook/Master Chief would be a real barnburner...!

First red sox gets his heart crushed, now poor Lopen.
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#337 | Qwaar | Posted 8/28/2013 9:35:53 PM | message detail
Nice one DB. Keep it up.
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#338 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/28/2013 9:37:19 PM | message detail
lightsout06 posted...
Was there a rally for L-Block? That match had a pretty high vote total compared to the others.


There was.
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#339 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2013 9:37:25 PM | message detail
Dragonborn stalling Tifa now.

...Rallying somewhere?
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http://i.imgur.com/M7vKB.gif
#340 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/28/2013 9:37:50 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
LeonhartFour posted...
Master Chief – 34.10%
Tom Nook – 34.09%

Looks like Tom Nook/Master Chief would be a real barnburner...!

First red sox gets his heart crushed, now poor Lopen.


Ahahaha. LOL Master Choke
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"Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
#341 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2013 9:37:55 PM | message detail
#342 | tgs2 | Posted 8/28/2013 9:41:46 PM | message detail
It originally looked like a small dip in votes for Auron in the beginning too.
#343 | vcharon | Posted 8/28/2013 9:42:27 PM | message detail
Tifa recovers it all.
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Still smilin'
:>
#344 | LeonhartFour | Posted 8/28/2013 9:42:28 PM | message detail
#345 | creativename | Posted 8/28/2013 9:44:08 PM | message detail
I hate this new "reddit rally factor" nonsense.

Like in order to predict who will get the benefit of the rally...you have to put yourself in the mind of a reddit-er *shudders*
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#346 | MegatokyoEd | Posted 8/28/2013 9:45:01 PM | message detail
Master Chief vs. Tom Nook must happen next contest.

Even if Nook probably gets blown out.
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#347 | Fayt_Esteed | Posted 8/28/2013 9:45:48 PM | message detail
MegatokyoEd posted...
Master Chief vs. Tom Nook must happen next contest.

Even if Nook probably gets blown out.


Heheh. Though I wouldn't exactly expect Master Chief to blow out anything but pure fodder.
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"Divine judgment for an evil soul! Sacred Penance! Rest in peace." - Estellise Sidos Heurassein, Tales of Vesperia
#348 | KanzarisKelshen | Posted 8/28/2013 9:48:48 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
I hate this new "reddit rally factor" nonsense.

Like in order to predict who will get the benefit of the rally...you have to put yourself in the mind of a reddit-er *shudders*


Having to predict how a young casual voter might vote? Oh no! The horror of it all! The indignity!
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#349 | Karma Hunter | Posted 8/28/2013 9:49:02 PM | message detail
creativename posted...
Almost 39K votes for the last match, damn. That was one helluva L-Block rally.

LeonhartFour posted...
Trend chart:

Time | Ezio | Auron | L-Block | Votes
11:00 | 19.83% | 33.44% | 46.73% | 2416
12:00 | 18.39% | 30.22% | 51.39% | 2452

Bizarro L-Block at work

Wowza.

Yeah, Samus should be at least mildly concerned here. Good thing for her this site loves Nintendo much more than FF, she should be harder to rally against than Auron.


Perhaps to get the rally topics started, sure. GameFAQs and especially the people on this board like Nintendo a lot more than Final Fantasy. However, all it takes is one thread - one spark to light a fire of rallied votes, and reddit has no such compunctions considering Nintendo as sacred ground. Those votes are going to be *primed* as well, so much so as to make the distinction between Auron and Samus practically meaningless to them.

Put another way, suppose that Auron 55-45s L-Block naturally on GameFAQs and that Samus scores a 63-37 on him instead. That's a bigger hole to be sure, but the votes coming off of GameFAQs are going to be lopsided in relative proportions of, like, probably 80/20 or worse.

Even worse is that Samus probably can't score that big of a blowout on L-Block naturally because of the idiosyncrasies of this bad multiway format. Just like in L-Block/Link/Cloud/Snake where Cloud's and Snake's presence killed our contest god, Tifa will serve as a significant drain on Samus as they hurt each other with what can be essentially termed 'Non-Joke LFF'.

And that's before factoring in the fact that L's natural strength will probably increase due to forming a bit of a bandwagon next round.
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#350 | 1337gamerpr0 | Posted 8/28/2013 9:51:45 PM | message detail
Karma Hunter posted...
rally discussion


so what you're saying is L-Block will be in full swing like 2007 by the final, against Draven?
I am ok with this

yes I know this probably won't happen